₦airaland Forum

emmanuelewumi:
The growth of Aradel is organic, apart from the private equity investors who converted their loan to equities about 6 years ago. Compared with the counterpart that has engaged in numerous capital raising exercise.


Imagine 50k invested in Aradel in 1995 and 50k invested in Unipetrol now Oando in 1995.
Probably worth over N2 million for Aradel and probably worth 5k for Unipetrol

It is management quality and sincerity that creates wealth for shareholders on the long run

What was the share price for Unipetrol (Oando) and Aradel in 1995? Have you considered the number of units 50k could buy in 1995 and if all the dividends received were reinvested over the years. Was Aradel on the NSE in 1995?
Aradel may have the upper hand though because of the current price

emmanuelewumi:
The growth of Aradel is organic, apart from the private equity investors who converted their loan to equities about 6 years ago. Compared with the counterpart that has engaged in numerous capital raising exercise.


Imagine 50k invested in Aradel in 1995 and 50k invested in Unipetrol now Oando in 1995.
Probably worth over N2 million for Aradel and probably worth 5k for Unipetrol

It is management quality and sincerity that creates wealth for shareholders on the long run

What was the share price for both companies in 1995? Have you considered the number of units 50k could buy in 1995 and if all the dividends received were reinvested over the years. Was Aradel on the NSE in 1995?
Aradel may have the upper hand though because of the current price

Macdevann:
Is this good or bad news?

This could be exploited to cheat consumers.
The NNPC should let everyone know the price of the crude that it sells in naira to Dangote and the agreed ex-factory price that Dangote will be selling, and the markup for the marketers. Otherwise consumers will be cheated

clarocuzioo:
They should state how much naira they are selling a barrel of crude oil to dangote, and what quantity of crude they supply to him per time.

Nigerians want to know where exactly their problems are coming from.

Exactly!
But the govt and NNPC are avoiding to give that information because they know they will be exposed as the root cause of the problems in the petroleum sector

Sunrisepebble:
Aradel and Seplat going fire for fire. I’m loving this. Aradel acquisition of Shell petroleum onshore assets -95% done according to a lawyer I just spoke to with vested interested in the firm. 2025 will be a serious year for this Coys in terms of production and revenue

Like I said earlier, the upstream oil and gas companies will do very well.
Government is seriously broke and needs money desperately, hence they will do everything to push Aradel, Seplat, Oando etc. to produce more volumes so govt can earn more.
Seplat will benefit hugely from the Mobil deal which will add about 95,000boepd to their production in the long term.
Aradel will also benefit from Shell assets acquisition
If Oando is able to deliver good results for 2024 and mid year 2025, it may overshoot N200 in 2025.

megawealth01:
Anybody that touches oando whether good or bad becomes a target? But we should allow people air their views about Oando and any other stocks.

Hope oando isn't becoming a CULT?

You could be arrested if not careful because we have some ''policemen'' here who are monitoring and are allergic to news or opinions about Oando, especially positive ones.

Or, do you want to be doing ''marketing'' for Oando?
Do you want to be doing ''monkey hunting'' for Oando?
Do you want to ''desperately push'' Oando to N100?

Please ''be wise"... like one ''Oando policeman'' would say

Omooloriredade:
Good attempt but unfortunately GROSSLY inaccurate.

* Peak Oil production was not 100,000bbls/day. Should have been reported as 100,000BOE/day. Also, Peak production can't be used for forecasting.
* Based on point above re BOE, you can't multiply this figure by $76 (the price of oil).
* Gas production figure is wrong. Don't know where that came from. Oando produced c. 31,912,680 MMBtu of gas in 2023.
* Average realised price of gas in 2023 was about $2 per MMBtu. Note - Futures contracts are usually used hedge commodity price risk.
* Your annual revenue was therefore grossly overstated which throws off the rest of your calculations.

However, I commend you for this intellectual exercise.

Things to note:

Gas:
1000Scf = 1Mcf
1000Mcf = 1MMcf
1000MMcf = 1Bcf
1000Bcf = 1Tcf

BOE (Barrel of OIL Equivalent)
1BOE = 6000Scf or 6Mcf or 5.8MMBtu (approx 6MMBtu)

Oil
1BOE = 1bbl (basically oil quantity needs no conversion. Unlike gas and NGLs, what you get is what it is)

So when an Upstream company reports production numbers, they usually refer to BOE to capture Oil, Natural Gas and Natural Gas liquids. Also, you would often see Oil companies qualify an oil well or OML by the proportion of Oil it produces e.g OML ABC producing 70% Oil (that is the % of oil in the BOE).

Great piece.!
I will encourage you to always share your knowledge in these matters. I am learning a lot.
We may disagree on our assessment or opinions about stocks because of our investment interests.
But where professional knowledge about matters or issues in a particular sector (e.g. energy sector) is concerned, I will urge all of us to appreciate knowledge when shared by those who know better.
It is the knowledge that matters (after all, we used to listen and learn from our lecturers in school even when we did not like them because they were too harsh or chasing the same babe with us ).

Tpharell:
Someone took the time to breakdown the figures and point out erroneous assumptions that you swallowed hook line and sinker from the original writeup, someone that clearly understands the matter by miles ahead of you, and you refer to them in that manner?

The very foundational basis of the Thisday piece is faulty. Oando being “first Nigerian IOC” due to its interest and Operations in Sao Tome is erroneous. Other indigenous companies hold interests there in Sao Tome, Malabu, etc but are not referred to as IOCs. Amni petroleum has held working interest and operates an asset in Ghana, even though no one has recognized it as IOC, so Oando is certainly not the first.

How is Oando producing 100,000? Even if BOE?

According to Oando's portal they have been producing about 40,000boepd,
Source: https://www.oandoplc.com/oando-energy-resources/projects/index.html

However, this is very likely to reach and surpass 50,000boepd by end of 2024 due to the ENI/AGIP deal.
The 100,000boepd is projected to materialize from 2026 onward

Meanwhile, Seplat also currently produces about 48,000boepd

dawnomike:
It takes a great deal of humility to do this...

It is not about humility or no humility.
The real issue is by what authority did he make the comment in the first place?
Is he God to determine who goes to heaven or not?
Was it the Holy Spirit that spoke through him or by his own man-made doctrine and teaching?.

There is a lot of disunity and disagreement in Christendom today because of mere mortals who talk and judge as if they are God and this is a typical example! A lot of potential Christians have been misled by some of these man-mad doctrines/teachings

ositadima1:
Even at the current price, based on publicly available information, Oando is still very cheap, unless management starts playing games. Just bookmark this post; we'll revisit it down the line.

Are you doing ''marketing'' for Oando?
Are you doing ''monkey hunting'' for Oando?
Are you trying to ''push'' Oando price to N100?

Please let us all be careful.
Because there are some self-appointed ''policemen'' here that would accuse you of these ''offences'' if you are not careful.
However, you may be lucky and not get charged or accused of the offences because you are ''Osita''!

Confirmedzombie:
The downfall and destruction of Israel is near.

Our most High Prophet Muhammad (SAW) have sanctioned the destruction of Israel.

The Arab world will level Israel to dust. Islam is a peaceful religion but when provoked, you will weep and sorrow.

The best Israel can do now is to surrender, appologize, pay for all damages for peace to reign

Truly, you are a Confirmed Zombie, just as your moniker says.
No book on Earth can defeat or change what the Bible says about Israel.

Tpharell:
You’re welcome!

A big threat to Seplat’s expected “bull rage’ after the acquisition is sealed is the 100,000 shares deal rule.
Recall, Oando was a near ‘penny’ stock when it started it’s post acquisition rage. With Seplat there is too much inertia to jump because of that rule. Most times its on full bid for days or weeks waiting for what someone here called ‘divine intervention’.

SEPLAT is moving oooo!
None of the upstream oil and gas companies should be ignored. The govt will push them because it needs money. Aradel, Oando and Seplat should be watched closely

Sunrisepebble:
Oil and Gas companies share price performance since BAT assumed office
Upstream
Seplat: +276%
Aradel: +4868%
Oando: +1,193

Downstream
Conoil: +218%
Total: +147%
Eterna: +328%
MRS: +225%

The govt is broke and needs money desperately.
The upstream oil and gas companies (Aradel, Oando, Seplat etc) are the major hope for govt, hence they will receive all the necessary push and support to produce so the govt can make money.

dre11:
https://leadership.ng/uncertainty-over-naira-for-crude-policy-as-federal-govt-fails-to-release-guideline/

This is what happens when a clueless and nepotistic president picks and dominates his cabinet with mostly his Lagos boys who have little or no experience in managing a national economy. Wale Edun (Finance minister) and Yemi Cardoso (CBN governor) are just as clueless as the president.
They just don't know what to do to turn the economy around

lionshare:
Too many caveats--

Na so we see am oo!

I wanted to keep some people at bay, away from whining at my post.

robobo:
"It has a Certified Professional Reserves Report (CPR) from D&M, the second largest in the world, which has also been auditing ENI/NAOC, Chevron, Shell and other oil Majors for decades.

With the CPR indicating Gross Recoverable 2p reserves on original 20 per cent Certificate of Proficiency (CoP) stake and new NAOC 20 per cent stake Net Present Value (NPV), (10 per cent is $2 billion respectively), total value of the company has now hit $4 billion, that is, before deduction of acquisition debt of the newly acquired company plus legacy debt.

When appropriate discounts are applied, including working capital, Actual Net Asset Value (NAV) of company, less all long term debt, equity value is about $3 billion."


so Oando don dey release result without releasing result hmmm na wa ooo

Net equity value of $3b (after deducting all debt/ liabilities) hmmmmm which equals N4.8 trillion

meaning at 12b outstanding shares equity value is N400/share

God is watching all of us on 5D


Is this signalling?

This could be a snippet of info from the latest assessment/valuation of Oando.
The share price is likely to drop between now and Oct 23 when the results would be announced, providing an opportunity for those interested to buy.
Meanwhile, the court case (involving the 14 loser minority shareholders) comes up on Oct 10. If still
interested you can try and buy before the Oct10, and thereafter before Oct 2023.

Note:
The above is purely for only those of us who may still be interested or already in Oando:

Caveat emptor!
This no due diligence!
This is not marketing!
This is not monkey hunting!
Those who are not interested can dump or ignore Oando shares immediately and enjoy their peace of mind!

Tpharell:
To help you, NNPC did not take Seplat to court as they had no issue with them whatsoever, instead they took their JV partner Mobil to court and got the extra 10% stake in the JV as out of court settlement compromise, a reduction in the stake of incoming Seplat which had not originally been factored in the transaction and market pricing.

Its not even up for argument that the deal started and was approved back in 2022 by Buhari, and Seplat did experience relative bull around the time. My point is many investors have already priced the Mobil acquisition in the current pricing so don’t expect the sort of Oando raging bull. Nobody said anything about “Never”, but it definitely and certainly cannot be like Oando, i can guarantee that.

Finally, everyone that is a keen follower of Seplat as I am knows the deal is inching close to finalizing, the president himself confirmed it in his speech yesterday.

Thanks, for the correction. I mistook and swapped Seplat for Mobil.

Tpharell:
The Mobil divestment has largely been factored into Seplat current pricing, so don’t expect the sort of Oando bull when the deal is sealed.

Recall in 2022 president Buhari did approve the divestment and Seplat shares experience some bull back then, only for the same president to reverse his decision few days later in a move that clearly showed he was not on top of things as president and minister of petroleum

Never say never.
Seplat can still experience a bull when the Mobil deal is officially sealed and announced as completed.
Some people said similar things about the Oando-ENI deal, but we saw what happened to Oando share price when the deal was signed/announced in London.

About the approval, it was NNPC that took Seplat to court in 2022 over the Mobil deal, and obtained court injunction which halted the process and caused the delay.
The parties just had an out-of-court settlement recently on 30 May 2024 and the NNPC withdrew the case from court. A compromise was reached with NNPC having 70% in the JV (instead of the usual 60%). Seplat therefore has 30%.

So the application for Seplat-Mobil transaction began officially in June 2024 ; the PIA provides that ministerial approval should be given within 120 days if all requirements are satisfied

Harvestock01:
Even at the risk of Media Homie label 🏷

MH = ''Monkey Hunting''
For more details, context etc you may contact @Godlyguy, the one who propagates the use of the phrase, especially as regards Oando

Oluboh:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2InQ0IALG2E?si=_9i_TD1m4HvCIoDy

Fayose was arrested after he completed his tenure as governor. In fact, he drove to the EFCC office accompanied by some lawyers, governors, activists etc.

Fayose was not arrested when he was a sitting governor of Ekiti State

Princkez:
OANDO on the move.....

Deadline of September 30 missed again? Na wa oo

megawealth01:
Blulaba is on the beat to help the economy

He would end up spending it on the contracts he has awarded to his cronies Chagoury and Chagoury

ProphetUtuocha:
Watch out:
This week, oh this week
Shall unveil new 'facts'
And freshness
That will excite folks
And restore hope

Let those who have ears hear!

Prophet, please release the next gem that you mentioned sometime ago.
Oando is already gone by and dusted.

chimex38:
I didn't say you deceive yourself;
No quote me out of context Sir


you are very correct with full authority to use the word.
na me invent am?

I believe we all do it sef whenever we buy any asset or stock, (I inclusive).. Like I said, na where person money dey, him mind dey.

Maybe I no relate my message well(English hard to use at times).

Generally speaking, I ONLY referenced the "my" word you used as a general word in our heads; sort of a mind-game attachment but that it gets in the way of some peoples replies at times on the forum during concrete stock discuss as discussions heat-up esp counter opinions.

NOT referring to the obvious cruise you are catching ..


Again, Just referencing the word and generalizing, not referring to You.

I believe you understand me, probably just pulling my legs

I was just joking!
You should have asked me how I even became the CEO of Oando?

Baxilexi:
By acquiring NAOC, Oando strengthens its presence in the Niger Delta region, which is a critical area for Nigeria’s oil and gas production. The acquisition also gives Oando a competitive edge over other indigenous companies, potentially making it the largest indigenous oil producer in Nigeria.

https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2024/08/31/oandos-naoc-deal-new-era-for-nigerian-oil-sector/

My facts, kindly provide yours. And if it isn’t, what ranking does it have?

!

You have just introduced two new words: potentially and indigenous.
That means changing the context of what you typed earlier

Baxilexi:
No commodity has an intrinsic value, we place value on the product.


The true value of crude is the operational cost in lifting it out of the ground which is X, not $77 per barrel.

One company sells a leather belt with the same leather quality for 1m USD another sells for 10 USD, both are making profit but the true cost of extracting the leather from animal hides is far lesser.

If we had a sincere government, now that Oando controls the largest upstream oil field, they should be sincere enough to let us know the true cost of lifting crude out of the ground and not the international market price.

Also, it can come at zero cost to the government with concessions.
Take a certain percent of what you lift as payment.

Oando does not control the largest upstream oil fields . Get the facts right. Shell, Mobil, Total, Chevron etc all have bigger upstream oil fields than Oando

chimex38:
Comment below not referring to you.

@colored
(as only a point of reference).

Personalizing a stock with "my" in ones mind before typing is what I think usually leads to entitlement on a stock and thus emotional or insulting comments on counter opinions.

Of course, na where person money dey, im mind dey.

For those who do and yet engage counter opinions fairly , it takes only a great deal of self control, maturity amongst others.

Unless of course, one is just catching cruise using the "my" word, which naturally will be obvious.
Again, I quoted You just for reference on the colored word, not referring to You Sir.

Why can't you allow me to deceive myself a bit and describe Oando as "my Oando" so that I can be happy at least for once in this country? Dont you know I am the CEO of Oando?
Please be careful.

God1000:
US provided the bombs and planes used in the assassination but they claimed israel didn't inform them in advance

The planes were purchased by Israel from US.
If I bought car from you, do I need to inform you or get your permission before driving it?

SonofElElyonRet:
I had dropped this matter until you reared your unfortunate head to spew trash. Your brain lacks the capacity to understand the issues raised. No words to exchange with a nitwit nonentity seeking attention and recognition. Argue and rant with yourself and your keypad.

Hi guys,
I understand how you may feel. You may have some point but please, let us avoid the use of derogatory words directedly at each other. We never know who is or may become our friend or benefactor in real life.
Let's us be measured in our words and reactions even when we are justifiably angry.
I am not pretending to be a saint or better than anyone here, but we have to let cool heads reign.

Everyone of us should have learnt a lesson about where we went wrong!

Peace and best of luck to everyone, including those who believe in my Oando and those who do not (greetings to Godlyguy)

fergie001:
The 35-year-old victim hails from Bauchi State


SOURCE

Why allow such a dangerous animal to be kept in a place like that? Just because the owner is an ex-president or what?

Softmirror:
Is war anything new to Iranians?!

How many wars has Iran fought and won compared to Israel?