₦airaland Forum

SonofElElyonRet:
Get ready guys... Might be sooner than you think

https://businessday.ng/news/article/nnpc-advances-ipo-plans-moves-to-close-governance-gaps/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAcGRvZgNzcnRjBmFwcF9pZA8yNzUyNTQ2OTI1OTgyNzkAAR4C1POt3-WZ5eD4_G21ySF2nEN2csuoEMsSfFeFzWp7IHgnLkcfdYp35M1xGw_aem_WWLVqQAgZELlohekzldAmw

chimex38:
50,000units X ₦525

chimex38:
₦26million and below worth of shares are almost guaranteed to get all alloted shares.

https://leadership.ng/dangote-pledges-priority-allocation-for-n50000-below-investors-in-refinery-ipo/

ayobama1:
Does it mean private companies/individuals are not allowed to carry out CNG conversion or the public don't have a buy in yet?

ghm:
Good. Thank you.

You are right to ask. The problem is real. But fuel subsidy is not the solution.

On public transport:
You are correct that Nigeria lacks efficient public transport. But that is an argument for building it, not for fuel subsidy. And it is already happening.

CNG buses have cut fares by up to 83% in Borno, 60% in Oyo and Plateau, 50% in Adamawa and Abia, 40% in Enugu and FCT. A Lagos–Ibadan trip that cost N8,000 now costs N3,200.

Is it nationwide? No. Kwara has 19 buses. Niger has 200 parked for lack of refuelling centres. But CNG stations have grown from under 10 in 2023 to over 90 today. Execution is imperfect. Direction is right.

The IMF's recommendation is exactly this: subsidise bus fares, not fuel prices. That is what CNG does—it cuts transport costs for commuters, not fuel costs for everyone.

On producers' power costs:
You are right that power is unreliable. But that is why solar is now viable. Small-scale solar costs N85–140 per kWh, below the Band A grid tariff of N225–270 per kWh.

The World Bank is supporting off-grid and renewable solutions—mini-grids and standalone solar for unconnected communities. The NDPHC is developing dedicated solar for industrial clusters to reduce diesel dependence.

The answer to unreliable power is not subsidising the diesel burned in generators. It is building the alternatives that make generators unnecessary.

On fuel as the common commodity:
Yes, transport and power both use fuel. That is exactly why fuel subsidy is the wrong tool. Subsidising fuel subsidises consumption—and the biggest consumers are the rich. The IMF's data is clear: 83% of gasoline subsidy benefits go to the richest 40%, and the richest 20% capture six times more than the poorest 20%.

The poor benefit most not from cheap fuel, but from cheap transport and cheap power. Subsidise those directly.

The fiscal reality:
Subsidy savings from June 2023 to December 2025 were N15.8 trillion. If that money returns to fuel subsidy, it disappears into the pump and benefits the rich most. If it goes into CNG buses, solar mini-grids, and targeted cash transfers, it reaches the people who need it.

You are right that Nigeria lacks efficient public transport and reliable power. But you do not fix that by subsidising the fuel a broken system burns. You fix it by building the alternative—and the government is already doing that, imperfectly but directionally.

ghm:
I always have a problem arguing with Nigerians because they lose scope. We are not talking about subsidies in general. We are talking about fuel subsidy. These are two different things.

And I agree with your core point: the question is not "should we help the poor?" The question is "how?"

The UK is the perfect example. The UK does not have fuel subsidies. Petrol and diesel are sold at market prices. The government does two things: it applies a fuel duty cut (5p per litre, extended to 2026) to slightly lower the pump price, and it uses the Fuel Finder scheme to force petrol stations to report price changes within 30 minutes so consumers can compare. But neither of these is a "fuel subsidy for the poor." They are market transparency measures.

What actually helps the poor is transport subsidy—and it is targeted.

The UK government committed £151 million to extend the national bus fare cap, capping single fares at £2 from January 2027. That is not a fuel subsidy. It is a public transport fare subsidy. Who uses buses? Students, pensioners, low-income commuters. The rich do not abandon their luxury cars because bus fares are cheap. The poor benefit.

More targeted still:
Over 60s: Free bus pass (Freedom Pass), free bus and most rail travel in London
Disabled people: Free or heavily discounted bus and rail travel
Jobseekers: Jobcentre Plus discount card, 50% off train fares
Students: Free bus travel in areas like Middlesbrough

These are the "vulnerables"—children, students, retirees, the elderly, people with disabilities, people experiencing deprivation. They are not helped by fuel subsidies. They are helped by targeted transport subsidies.

The IMF's advice for Nigeria is exactly this: "Protecting people is not the same as protecting the price of fuels." The IMF warns that broad fuel subsidies are fiscally very costly and readily regressive—because the rich consume more fuel and capture more of the absolute benefit. The IMF recommends redirecting resources to bus fare subsidies, school feeding, and geographically targeted transfers.

So your logic is correct: we should subsidise "mobility" and "production," not "fuel" itself. Subsidise public transport, subsidise the vulnerable, subsidise small producers' power costs. Those are targeted, manageable, and actually reach the poor.

But "fuel subsidy" cannot do that, because it distributes by consumption—and the biggest consumers are the rich. The UK does not do fuel subsidies, not because it does not care about the poor, but because it has better tools to care for them.

ghm:
You're right that subsidy is quantitative. The math is clear: N1 per litre pays N10 to the man who buys 10 litres and N1,000 to the man who buys 1,000 litres.

And the question isn't "who gets more naira?" It's "who feels the relief?" A N500 cushion to a man earning N5,000 is a 10% boost. To a man earning N1,000,000, it's 0.05%.

But that's exactly why blanket subsidy is dangerous. If subsidy becomes the major expense of government, it crowds out funding for basic things—food, shelter, education, healthcare. That's how you create poverty, not solve it.

A better approach would be to find another way to subsidise small fuel consumers, in addition to funding basic needs.

ghm:
I agree with them on fuel subsidy. Blanket fuel subsidy benefits the rich more. A poor man does not have a vehicle or generator. A rich man has five fuel-gulping cars and a 100KVA generator. Who benefits more from fuel subsidy[b][/b]?

But if there is free education, healthcare, and good roads, everyone benefits.

If I may ask:

Is it the West that is responsible for the massive, continuous looting of Nigeria and other developing countries?

Is it the West that stopped Nigerians and citizens of other developing countries from starting and building industries like Dangote and Rabiu are doing?

Is it the West that forced Nigerians to carry enormous capital to the West?

We must start by taking responsibility for ourselves.

megawealth01:
If you read this news, you might think the West genuinely cares about Nigeria’s development but we must look beyond the headlines and examine the interests behind their actions.

Personally, the only reason I might consider buying into the DANGOTE REFINERY IPO is that DANGOTE is a local player investing in domestic production, as opposed to the continued dependence on imported petroleum products. I believe Nigeria’s long-term economic growth requires us to strengthen local industries, encourage domestic investments, reduce import dependence and support initiatives that can improve our economic independence.

For me, it is not just about buying shares; it is also about supporting local production and Nigeria’s economic self-reliance.

© MEGAWEALTH01

Agbalowomeri:
Dem no born US to reduce rate in the next two years

essentialone1:
FTSE Russell anticipated stock rally. Much Ado about nothing...

Dogalmighty17:
Just imagine what the senate president is saying. He is the worst senate president in the history of this country.

Raider76:
Image what this country must have lost through the corruption, steeling and eventual grounding of the nation's refineries. The DR has really exposed a lot of what happened and is still happening in the Nation's petroleum sector.

Jennyclay:
Men are pervert

He sounds like he does it every time even to little children. Look at the way he’s begging with pride “abi I have apologized” nonsense man!

Biko, He should be locked up

EDUECO:
Dangote Refinery is a mini Nigerian economy!

It is going to be a 10 bagger company in 4 to 5 year.😁

SammyB67:
Many Nigerians take blood tonic whenever they feel tired, weak or look pale. But do you know what it actually does? 👇
What blood tonic really is:
Most blood tonics are just iron, sometimes mixed with vitamin B12, folic acid and vitamin C. Your body uses these to make red blood cells. They don't magically "add blood."
The truth most people don't know:
Tiredness and weakness don't always mean low blood. They can come from malaria, poor sleep, stress, worms, or other health problems. Taking blood tonic for the wrong reason won't fix the real cause. ⚠️
Why it may not work for you:
❌ Your low blood may not be caused by lack of iron
❌ Malaria or an infection may be the real problem
❌ Some conditions, like sickle cell, need different care
Can too much iron hurt? Yes. Taking it without need can cause stomach pain, constipation, nausea and, over time, too much iron in the body. 😬
Do this instead:
1️⃣ Get a blood test (PCV/haemoglobin) to know your level
2️⃣ Ask a doctor or pharmacist which tonic suits you
3️⃣ Eat iron-rich foods: beans, liver, ugu, spinach, fish, red meat 🥬
4️⃣ Take vitamin C foods (orange, pawpaw) with your iron to help absorption 🍊
5️⃣ Avoid tea or coffee close to when you take your iron, as they reduce absorption
💡 Fun fact: Blood tonics can turn your stool dark. It's usually harmless, but don't ignore it if you also have stomach pain.
⚠️ See a doctor quickly if you feel dizzy, breathless, very pale, or weak for many days. Don't keep guessing with tonic.
This is for education only, not a replacement for medical advice.
What's your favourite blood tonic, and has it worked for you? Tell us in the comments 👇
📌 Share this with someone who drinks blood tonic for every little tiredness!
Follow this page for more everyday things you use but nobody explains. 🇳🇬

SonofElElyonRet:
You and I know you will still buy.. you have 2 weeks to gather your "Mega" bucks

Hemanwel:
I don't think this is the best way to handle the issue.

Arise News hasn't heard from Tony and they've concluded the allegations are true by disengaging him, because they have not heard from him after 10 days.

Just 10 days??

Agbalowomeri:
He is yet to survive Lasaco

The thing still tie his neck down

megawealth01:
Fear dey catch me...

popoolaRofiat:
I was a victim. I had a wine shop which was earning 7 figures monthly at one of the beach there.Wicked people

RealLordZeus:
Killing Ayatollah Khomeini was a bad move
When Osama bin laden was killed in Pakistan then, e get reason why the then president did not televised it.

The ability to kill people is not strength, but rendering them useless while alive is the greatest strength.

Despite having total control of Palestine and killing at will, the Palestinians still have the power to manipulate the world population against Israel..That is strength

SonofElElyonRet:
Nairaland front page

Aliko Dangote said his refinery has generated “a bit over $5.5 billion” in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) through the third quarter (Q3) of 2026.

He also said it will most likely beat a full-year 2026 EBITDA projection of about $7.2 billion. These are the first figures to emerge for the third quarter, which the company has not yet published.

“I think we have done very well and we will do even better on the fourth quarter results,” Dangote told investors on Monday at the final roadshow for the refinery’s initial public offering, held in Port Harcourt, monitored by MoneyCentral. He addressed the event virtually.

“The share price at N525 is an extremely good price.”

First-half EBITDA was $2.60 billion, according to the IPO Prospectus. That implies third-quarter EBITDA of about $2.9 billion, more than the entire first half, MoneyCentral calculations show.

Hitting $7.2 billion would require only about $1.7 billion in the fourth quarter.

The nine-month figure already matches analysts’ full-year forecasts. CardinalStone expects 2026 EBITDA of $5.6 billion, and Chapel Hill Denham expects $5.7 billion. MoneyCentral estimates nine-month net profit at about $4.1 billion, above CardinalStone’s $3.8 billion full-year profit forecast.

Record fuel margins support the numbers. Diesel and jet fuel crack spreads nearly tripled from a year earlier in the third quarter EIA data shows. The refinery ran a record 736,470 barrels a day in August.

At the offer price, Dangote’s $7.2 billion target values the refinery at about 6.8 times EBITDA, on MoneyCentral calculations, down from about 9.4 times on first-half numbers.

The offer has been extended to October 27, on the need to give prospective buyers across Africa more time to access the share sale, and Dangote said subscriptions were “more than three or four times” the amount sought.

The figures provided by Dangote are unaudited comments made while marketing the share sale.

The implied third-quarter margin of about $54 a barrel is well above the prospectus guidance of $24.20 for 2026. Margins could also narrow quickly if the Iran war and the disruption to Russian fuel supply ease

megawealth01:
Alhaji fit no return anybody money ooooo

Do you think DANGOTE REFINERY is seriously hustling for bailouts ni?

chimex38:
some sites are already saying its already over x3 oversubscribed.

Probably needs the population-numbers not the finance-numbers

essentialone1:
Femi Falana's exact words:

> "The road, coastal road, has now become land road, I'm sure you are aware... after Ogun State, they now said they are going from Edo to go by land, because they can't fund it. Again, we must now ask questions: Where are the 15 trillion naira earmarked for that road?"

*Context:*

Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway is Tinubu's flagship - 700km, 9 coastal states, originally N15tn ($11bn) EPC+F, contractor Hitech (Gilbert Chagoury), with Deutsche Bank syndicated loan of $747m for first 47.5km.

Last week, Works Minister Dave Umahi announced change:

- Sections 4A/4B (67km - 27km Ogun + 40km Ondo) will no longer hug shoreline
- From Ondo into Edo, highway will follow old East-West Road instead of new coastal alignment
- Umahi said order came directly from President: "Divert, do not do any new alignments. Pass the coastal highway through the existing East-West Road"

Umahi's reason: deep pits (100m deep) in Ondo, no sharp sand for 300m, terrain too expensive - calls it "excellent engineering choice, by Mr President".

Falana's point and why it's trending:

1. N15tn was for brand new 6-lane coastal road with rail, drainage, wave protector. If you now use existing East-West Road, where is cost saving?
2. Homes and businesses were demolished in Lagos and Ondo for coastal ROW - now route abandoned.
3. No public Bill of Quantities, no competitive bidding - awarded by presidential fiat to Hitech.[b][/b]

He tied it to 2027 - warned against voter suppression in Lagos, and said accountability is "the only way we can get these people to be accountable".

ayobama1:
A Road is a Road 🤪

Agbalowomeri:
The whole NGX sef no get 5million people
The IPO will not see 1m people

pluto09:
It is not about the amount of money, it is all about recruiting enough number of people to his side.
10 million investors that will hold like 10 units each.