₦airaland Forum

faoogoke:
I understand you fully my brother. Because some people did not take a position in a rising stock they speak bad about the stock, make those holding the stock to dump. This is not right.
I have learnt to ignore them and hold on to my stance.
I am happy you recovered.

designking:
Ellah Lakes might touch ₦10 with this current rally. It looks very good and this company might be the next Okomu Oil

vacanci:
In all your doings, don't buy stocks at Premium or pursue ones that are flying.

If you follow madam yMcy56, you go enter some of these goodies early enough and be patient.

Jumping out of battered stocks to enter a flying one is riskier than remaining in the battered one.

bovali:
Good question. Its does not. FX was added to revaluation

Agbalowomeri:
Mega shey you don see. If you be street you go sabi wetin e mean when a naija babe tell you this

bovali:
Valuation of Access Bank’s Stock: A Comprehensive Analysis Using 10 Methods

In this post, I analyze the potential stock price of Access Bank, a major player in Nigeria’s banking industry, using 10 different valuation methods. For each method, I present a worst, base, and best-case scenario. This approach provides a well-rounded view of the stock’s valuation under various market conditions.

1. Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio

The P/E ratio compares the current share price to the company’s earnings per share (EPS). With an EPS of ₦7.61, I applied three different P/E multiples to arrive at potential price ranges.

• Worst Case (P/E = 4x): ₦30.44
• Base Case (P/E = 8x): ₦60.88
• Best Case (P/E = 12x): ₦91.32

2. Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio

This method values the stock based on the net asset value of the company. It provides insights into how the market values the bank’s equity in relation to its actual assets.

• Worst Case (P/B = 0.8x): ₦63.86
• Base Case (P/B = 1.2x): ₦95.79
• Best Case (P/B = 1.6x): ₦127.72

3. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Model

The DCF model estimates the present value of the company’s future cash flows. This is one of the most comprehensive methods, often used for long-term valuations.

• Worst Case: ₦28.00
• Base Case: ₦65.00
• Best Case: ₦105.00

4. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a stock based on the present value of future dividend payments. This method is particularly useful for dividend-paying companies like Access Bank.

• Worst Case: ₦22.00
• Base Case: ₦50.00
• Best Case: ₦75.00

5. Asset-Based Valuation

In this method, I assess the value of the stock based on the company’s net assets (assets minus liabilities). This provides a conservative view of the stock price.

• Worst Case: ₦35.00
• Base Case: ₦60.00
• Best Case: ₦80.00

6. Earnings Growth Model

This approach forecasts the company’s future earnings and applies a multiple based on growth expectations.

• Worst Case: ₦25.00
• Base Case: ₦55.00
• Best Case: ₦85.00

7. Price-to-Sales (P/S) Ratio

The P/S ratio compares the stock price to the company’s revenue per share. It’s useful when earnings are volatile or when valuing early-stage companies.

• Worst Case: ₦12.94
• Base Case: ₦32.34
• Best Case: ₦51.74

8. Enterprise Value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA)

This method looks at the company’s enterprise value relative to its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA).

• Worst Case: ₦30.00
• Base Case: ₦65.00
• Best Case: ₦100.00

9. Relative Valuation (Comparables)

Relative valuation compares Access Bank’s valuation multiples (like P/E and P/B) to its peers in the Nigerian banking sector. This method provides context by assessing how Access Bank compares to competitors.

• Worst Case: ₦27.00
• Base Case: ₦58.00
• Best Case: ₦90.00

10. Economic Value Added (EVA)

EVA measures the company’s ability to generate returns above its cost of capital. This is a good indicator of the company’s profitability and long-term value creation.

• Worst Case: ₦32.00
• Base Case: ₦55.00
• Best Case: ₦90.00

Summary:

To provide a concise summary, I calculate the average share price across the 10 valuation methods for the worst, base, and best-case scenarios:

• Worst Case Average: ₦30.73
• Base Case Average: ₦59.90
• Best Case Average: ₦88.88

The current stock price of Access Holdings PLC (ACCESSCORP) as of September 20, 2024, is ₦19.00 per share, following a 3.06% decline from the previous day. Over the past year, the stock has ranged from a low of ₦15.45 (September 28, 2023) to a high of ₦30.70 (January 18, 2024). This price trend reflects some volatility, with the stock trading closer to the lower end of its annual range recently. I expect another low to high cycle this September to January period again.

Given this context, the stock is currently trading well below the upper bounds projected in the best-case valuation but aligns more closely with some of the base-case valuations derived from the methods I used earlier. This highlights that the stock might have more growth potential if conditions improve, but it is still trading near recent lows.
Not financial advice. DYOR

Agbalowomeri:
Lol

Oga Nosa dey dream GTCo

Streetinvestor2:
I expect 50%-70% change in some selected banks but not 100%.This is because of too much inconsistant/regulations from cbn.The cbn tend to be holding the banks by the neck too much.

designking:
Which bank... Pls give us update so that we can key in

Streetinvestor2:
Lol.so when are you coming to market. Is it still November or you have changed ur mind.
Though I expect it in first quarter 2025.And some insurance own go loud.The once with good results so far and OS within 13B and below go perform margic and many fundamental sound penny stock. People should do thr DD and have 6 months horizon in mind starting from next month


Next yr I will have trading account for the kind jijo that will be happening. Thr will be stability in the economy or slight improvement

Agbalowomeri:
8 months of consolidation

The incoming bull go mad gan

Get set and enjoy the bull

Agbalowomeri:
Baba there is no too words for akagum😂. It's a pathology

Agbalowomeri:
The house was before the wealth. Why get wealthy?

Agbalowomeri:
Didn't we hear that he lived in the same house for decades despite all these fortunes

nosa2:
double entry

Sunrisepebble:
FINAL and FULL info on FMN, as it is no longer classified info and has spread far and wide within various circles, the coy wants to delist from the exchange. And will ofcourse purchase at a premium. The premium was set around #70 while the stock was trading ~#45, however with recent gains, it will be revised upwards. HONEYFLOUR will be included in the transaction, as they want to delist the two entities, consolidate and then list again as a new entity. Purchase price for HONEYFLOUR, I am unsure of. Congrats to all those who listened to the initial signal

RodgersAkpafu:
I would like to add some perspective on this very good point you raised with respect to dividends and asset valuation

You see, whether you like it or now, part of the reason WHY that is the case is because we live in a LOW TRUST SOCIETY.

So investors will rather take the dividends that they can see and touch with their two eyes, than take a chance at retained earnings for 10 years straight for reinvestment that could then lead to massive capital appreciation in the next decade.

Long story short
whether we like it or not, most of us don't trust the management or regulatory oversight in totality

when management is telling you that we wanna retain all earnings for capital reinvestment, a Conventional Nigerian will be suspicious

2006-2008 period is still fresh in our mind
the results were "good"
but wetin happen las las?
till date most companies have not attained those highs of that period

and this is almost 16 years going


My thoughts sha
thank you

Raider76:
Unless they have finished the RI price will continue to be affected by that.

Agbalowomeri:
Don't worry, banks and all stocks will rally at Christmas and new year

However, it seems you are using the same valuation lens for banks as for other blue chips in other sectors. You should discount by at least 50% because of 1) inherent risk and CBN pronouncements and 2) Dividend plays a heavy role in pricing banks. With all these profits, shouldn't GTCO and Zenith be paying N10 dividend? Do you think they will pay up to that by year end? If not, getting any price near 100 may be dreamland.

KarlTom:
CORPORATE ACTION

GTCO
INT DIV: ₦1:00
Q. DATE: 25 SEPT '24
P. DATE: 07 OCT '24

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/42125_GUARANTY_TRUST_HOLDING_COMPANY_PLC-GTCO-CORPORATE_ACTIONS_ANNOUNCEMENT__CORPORATE_ACTIONS_SEPTEMBER_2024.pdf

Agbalowomeri:
I was waiting for NOSA2
Whether na you go be prophet of GTCO
With banks the more you look...😂

KarlTom:
GTHCO

PBT: ₦1Trillion
INTERIM DIV: ₦1.00

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/42120_GUARANTY_TRUST_HOLDING_COMPANY_PLC-_QUARTER_2_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2024_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_SEPTEMBER_2024.pdf

gare2510:
I attempted selling my OANDO at #73.75 there were about 6million bids in front of me but it was filled immediately, is this possible?

KarlTom:
One thing is certain, after commencement of full operations at DR our FX will improve significantly.

I honestly do not see FG/NNPC satisfying the crude oil needs of DR and he'll have to import more crude to meet demand/full capacity,

That means, at cheaper $-₦, the produce of the refinery will be cheaper ex-depot.

I think the bolded can be achieved on the mid- to long-term...

designking:
I waited too long... Tomorrow I am cashing out all my Oando shares too.

Oando pullback will be epic

Streetinvestor2:
My broker just called me.He told me is Warren Buffett that is buying

I didn't want to say it till market close for the day

megawealth01:
Union Bank records 138% profit growth for 2023 as restructuring plans continue

https://nairametrics.com/2024/08/17/union-bank-records-138-profit-growth-for-2023-as-restructuring-plans-continue/

abiodunbright:
hi

chimex38:
Thank you for this video..
Didn't know it was this detailed to an extent.

On Rice(@34.00mins)
OMO!
Give you seeds, insecticides, fertilizer, hectares of Lands,etc for free for you to just grow it and still buy the Rice back from you @ harvest? Not take back BUY back!!

Dangote Industries na Country inside Country, kalakuta Republic dey learn work.