₦airaland Forum

emmanuelewumi:
6 to 9 month

And then he includes a timeframe

BuchyD:
60-90%😳😳......Anyway,you didn't include a time frame.

Nobody can include time frame unless they are juju men

Raider76:
In the medium term I am going with FBN which I belive may have higher potential sentiment backed gains.

That makes sense. So Long as you understand your reason you'll probably do well.

These banks are so cheap that you're almost guaranteed to make money

designking:
If the UBA believe they are far worth more than ₦35/share, then they are mostly right.

I see UBA trading above ₦35 before the end of December 2024.

I might have to buy some units to add to my portfolio on Monday for long term.

While UBA is certainly cheap compared to its historical valuations, it is not amongst the cheapest banks.

If you want to enter banking stocks you might want to look at Zenith and GTCO

yMcy56:
GTCo @56!

Journey never even start sef.

No too loud am because I wan buy more but money never drop

safepaulooo:
FEWER POSTS AND PAGES

NSE DASHING EXPECTATIONS

Interesting metric

emmaodet:
Okitipupo shares on Nasd is virtually not available with about 2.4m bids and not offers.
Also, the listed companies on nasd is around 40. Not that much going on over there.
I can't even get okitipupa to buy.

Please what broker do you use to access the NASD

talk2me2:
Make no mistake, the result in page 15 is that of Consolidated Hallmark Insurance Limited. While the report in page 53 is that of Consolidated Hallmark Holding PLC.

You may like to read page 1 to understand the structure of the Holding Company (the group).

All the three pages attached are from the audited financial statement.

NB: This is not a recommendation

Thanks for this. I looked at the report and saw (as you have highlighted) that the majority of the bumper profits came from Net interest income. I also noticed the FX gains.

In my opinion the following need to be determined:

1, What asset did they invest in that gave them that much interest?

2, Is this income recurrent? eg, if it is some sort of euro bond, then when do the bonds expire etc.

Right now an investment in this company is a proxy investment in the asset that provided the net interest income. This is not necessarily a bad thing. Just that more clarity is needed

talk2me2:
omo consolidated hallmark holding PLC is not 'smiling' at all. Eps of N1.23k for a stock of N1.4k is not a child's play.

I also took a second look at John that guy is really Hot .

Thanks for this.

BabsO2:
Please compare the two book values per share for common NGX shareholder and you will see UBA is a far ahead. Already ahead of GTCO but behind Zenith. UBA is also ahead in EPS and CIPS.

Please what is CIPS?

megawealth01:
This is the third time you are saying this...

Because I own banking stocks (heavy on GTB) it is my interest to get people excited about banks (Particularly GTB).

I'm not being altruistic. I am shamelessly shilling my holdings

Nataba:
Massive accumulation continues @UBA.

The stock just broke its 52W High price and closed at #35.05

I believe most banks will break their 52 week high.

This rally has not even begun. These banks are insanely undervalued

Harvestock01:
I am in alignment with your position but the psychological profile of every investor ain't the same and that's why I refrain from such Catch 22 situations.

True. I was just feeling generous when I made the post.

Agbalowomeri:
Not V shaped reversal but pull backs. It should hopefully complete the 5 Elliot waves

Most likely there will be pull backs but how many people can successfully time those pull backs. In fact trying to time them will be a fools errand

megawealth01:
How much is this bottom if I may ask?

This is anybody's guess and that's my point. Trying to guess the bottom would most likely be sub optimal.

It's better to wait for the market to decide before stepping in

Harvestock01:
If he listens to your advice and he stopped buying but the stock starts reversing, how matter go be?

V shaped reversals are very rare. Only time I think I have seen it was in the US market during the pandemic.

There will be consolidation at the bottom

Agbalowomeri:
Baba this one won't range yet. Any day it stops falling, it will spike back. The market is still trying to place it so expect more volatility

Either way it is best to wait than to try and time the bottom

Harvestock01:
"Every mallam with his own kettle" apology to KarlT

Haha!! In as much as this is a competitive sport; once in a while it is ok to help someone from making an obvious mistake. This is especially true when one has no skin in the game either way of their decision.

USAfall2024:
Yeah, lesson learnt boss. This is my buying season and I just wanted to commit the fund to a decent stock. Aradel (despite being newly listed) and Presco were my picks. I met my Presco target since and have actually been patient with Aradel while watching it fall from 700ish to 500 before committing my first buy and bought more today. I guess I am not really that patient to wait it out for extra weeks to find better bargain entry. All the same, as long as the company’s fundamentals remain healthy, I don’t mind the falling price. Hopefully I might have a fresh budget to key into it when it share price settles so it’s still a win-win IMO.

Keep your money. Presco makes sense. It's been ranging for a while now and it's not likely to fall further. As for Aradel, nobody knows where market will call a bottom. You can enter now and it falls below 100. Just be patient

USAfall2024:
#350 or lower will be a steal. Tbh, I didn’t expect it to go lower than #400 but now I am no longer sure of what range it will bottom. I had a 5K units target and I currently have 3,645 units (BE @#458). I will complete the last tranche this week as the price dips further.

I'm not here to teach so I won't argue much but you don't need to try to catch a falling knife. Let the stock fall and settle. It will trade within a price range for some time.

During this range period you will have more than enough time to decide if it's worth pulling the trigger.

SonofElElyonRet:
At least you are about to break even 👍

You're joking right?

Opportunity cost, devaluation/inflation.

When it comes to this OANDO conversation I am amazed that people are still looking at this company. Then again I have seen people looking for ponzi schemes to invest in; with the hope they will cash out before the rig is pulled

ositadima1:
Prediction is very much an art. Your valuation of GTCO, for instance, is also an art because you made assumptions to arrive at a specific number. You do have a number in mind that you believe reflects GTCO's value, right? How did you arrive at that number, and what assumptions did you make?

Applying concepts logically is always better than ignoring them (in your case saying it is futile) . Someone who doesn’t calculate and simply assumes GTCO is undervalued is likely to get burned sooner or later if they don’t know where to stop buying. This is just an example to illustrate my point.

I no get power to argue but I dont see the logic in doing this calculation. Average P.E can give a reference for historical valuation, average book value can also give historical reference. Historical EPS has no use what so ever

ositadima1:
Because EPS fluctuates from year to year, certain years may show a very high EPS due to factors like reduced interest rates or unsustainable revenue jumps. In other years, unfavorable events can pull EPS down. The idea is that an average will smooth out these anomalies and outliers. You’re likely familiar with this concept from stock movements; the same approach applies to physical quantities like temperature, humidity, and more.

I know what you are saying but you are trying to turn an art into a science and it is futile

Sunrisepebble:
GTCO and Zenith making me smile

Smart money is taking position. Though I own more GTB than Zenith, Zenith is slightly cheaper at current prices.

ositadima1:
Yeah, there’s nowhere they can’t be used, as long as there is a time series of data points.

I know it can be used anywhere I just dont see the efficacy of using it with EPS

ositadima1:
You may not have heard of moving averages, but they are widely used in the real world, from finance to engineering. I suggest you update your knowledge—lest the world leaves you behind.

Moving average for EPS? ok na

yMcy56:
Tips needed 😊
2 suspected

Meanwhile, GTCO @54
The resilience though!

While they have been fixated on OANDO we were positioning.

ositadima1:
Although averages can sometimes be misleading—just ask the guy who drowned after being told the average depth of a swimming pool was only 1.5 meters before he dived into its deepest part at 4.5 meters—in this case, averaging may be useful as a low-pass filter.

Now, book value per share is essentially a fancier term for equity per share (kind of...). Therefore, EPS divided by book value per share gives us ROE. By averaging ROE over five years and re-substituting it for EPS (now an average), this method makes sense.

This doesn’t mean his discount rate or current value calculation wasn’t incorrect (it is an he needs to admit that), but this approach helps smooth out unusual fluctuations in EPS.

Smooth out unusual fluctuations in EPS by averaging it out?

That is utter BS in the real world.

It is wise to discount unusual income but smoothing it out makes no sense

emmanuelewumi:
The banks have been coming out with fantastic results since 2023.

It is proper not to use their current EPS for valuation.

One can use the average EPS for last 5 years or use the average return on equity in the last 5 years to get the normalized EPS.

I prefer using normalized EPS.

Average EPS might not give the true picture of things, the company might have issued bonus shares, done public offers, converted debts to equities or given stock options to the workers which might dilute the earnings.

Why 5 years? The average business cycle is about 5 years


To get normalized EPS, assuming the current Book Value Per Share is N100. The company's return on equity in the last 5 years are 20%, 25%, 30%, 35% and 40%.
The average return on equity in the last 5 years will be 30%.

30% of the N100 ie the book value is N30.

The normalized EPS will be N30, even though the current EPS for the year is N40

This doesn't make any sense

Me4bas:
Help with your spreadsheet

I dont understand

BabsO2:
In my own spreadsheet I deducted N500b from GT's PAT as it counted unrealized gains of about that amount in its PAT. Ideally it should be placed under comprehensive income.

I initially did that but I undid it.

yMcy56:
ZENITH
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/42517_ZENITH_BANK_PLC-_QUARTER_3_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2024_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_OCTOBER_2024.pdf

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/42518_STERLING_FINANCIAL_HOLDINGS_COMPANY_PLC-_QUARTER_3_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2024_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_OCTOBER_2024.pdf

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/42514_ECOBANK_TRANSNATIONAL_INCORPORATED-_QUARTER_3_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2024_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_OCTOBER_2024.pdf

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/42515_BUA_FOODS_PLC-_QUARTER_3_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2024_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_OCTOBER_2024.pdf

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/42524_VERITAS_KAPITAL_ASSURANCE_PLC-_QUARTER_3_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2024_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_OCTOBER_2024.pdf

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/42523_ABC_TRANSPORT_PLC-_QUARTER_3_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2024_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_OCTOBER_2024.pdf

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/42513_CORNERSTONE_INSURANCE_PLC-_QUARTER_3_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2024_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_OCTOBER_2024.pdf

When I see bank results I quickly go and input the data in my spreadsheet to do a comparison,

GTB has the lowest PE, Highest ROE and like the 4th lowest price to book value.

I siddon gidigba dey look this market