₦airaland Forum

vacanci:
biggest mistake i made was not reviewing NGX trading on BAMBOO app before trying it.

set a limit buy order yesterday for a stock. the stock closed lower than my limit price, yet my order was not filled.

i then tried to cancel the order at least let me take my money out and jejely go and use my other brokers. Unfortunately there was no where to cancel the order. my money is just there trapped

After contacting their customer service, i was told to wait for 3 working days so they can investigate thoroughly and give me feedback.

i was as shock as ever. It appeared i was operating in the 1990s.

i don't know if i am alone on this. Although i later started reading review of similar issues.

i think they are trapping clients fund and buying time with it so they can use the monies to make profit for their business.

Please if there is anyone who had similar challenge here and how it was resolved, i will like to be informed.

Thank you

Thanks for this. I was thinking of using the app but make I just dey my dey

ojeysky:
Ellahlakes and Access both gradually moving...

I dont know why folks are getting excited about Ellah Lakes. They are still setting up their nursery so they have years before they start making money from palm oil.

NGX doesnt have that kind of patient capital.

faoogoke:
As many as are hoping on palm oil producing companies, PRESCO, OKUMO and ELLAH LAKES.

As they expand their farms and with increase planting from small scale holders the possibility of a glut should be factored.

No be only glut, na gluten.

Do some research into palm oil demand in Nigeria and globally.

emmanuelewumi:
According to you the purported N300 billion revenue forecast in 2029 is not possible.

They made a revenue forecast of N39 billion for 2024 but achieved N53 billion

Presco made a full year EPS forecast of N49 for 2024 but achieved N104

Don't joke with companies that are modest with their projections

Q1 2025 result prove if they still have room for growth.

They make the Nairs equivalent of between $10,000 to $20,000 per foreign aircraft they handle .

They are also diversifying into cargo handling of the exportation of agricultural produce

Is the company doing well? YES!!!

Have I paid attention to them? NO

As I said my analysis could be wrong. However given current stock market conditions and the company's stock price, the numbers are not sexy enough to get me salivating

emmanuelewumi:
Presco at full year EPS of N100

Damn!!!

This result is sexy

emmanuelewumi:
EPS increased from 20k in 2020 to N6.60k in 2024. That is over 100% compounded annualized earning growth rate

Going forward I assume a compounded annualized earning growth rate of 30% for the next 5 years

Justified forward PE should not be less than 12

I believe two key factors are currently driving NAHCO's positive performance. First, the growing insecurity of road travel has made air travel a more attractive option, increasing demand for ground handling services. Second, although I'm less certain about this, it’s possible that NAHCO's revenue is tied to airline ticket prices, meaning that as ticket prices rise, so does their income.

However, I don’t expect these trends to continue indefinitely. In my view, we’ve reached peak levels of both insecurity and ticket prices, which suggests that the current growth drivers may not sustain in the future. As a result, I’m hesitant to bet on NAHCO’s growth continuing at this pace.

I acknowledge that I could be wrong, but this is my current perspective. That said, the recent results are undeniably strong.

emmanuelewumi:
It is growth in all ramifications,I hope they can continue going forward


Revenue N53 billion compared to N28billion in 2023


Gross profit N32 billion against N15 billion

Operating profit N19.3 billion against N8.8 billion

Net operating profit after tax N14 billion against N5.8 billion

Profit after tax N12.8 billion versus N5.5 billion

Equity N20 billion against N12.1 billion

Debt N6.2 billion against N2.6 billion

Invested capital N26.2 billion against N14.7 billion

Operating cash flow N11.3 billion against N4.6 billion

Free cash flow N6 billion against N3.4 billion

Return on equity 64% against 45%

Return on Invested capital 53% against 39%

Cash flow Return on Investment 41% against 32%

Cash Return on Invested Capital 23% against 23%

Working capital N14.4 billion against N5.6 billion

Net margin 24% against 20%

Gross Margin 61% against 53%

Operating margin 36% against 31%

Operating cash flow margin 21% against 16%

Free Cash flow margin 11% versus 12%


Debt/NOPAT 0.32 years against 0.25 years. Meaning the company's debt is equivalent to less than the Operating profit made in 4 months

The company is doing well but given current market conditions I feel the stock has priced in the performance.

Thanks for this analysis

Mpeace:
FBNH wey go carry us go places? Just wait makevwe pursue all the former owners out of this country.

The bank is really turning around

Raider76:
FBNH

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/43045_FBN_HOLDINGS_PLC-_YEAR_END_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2024_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_JANUARY_2025.pdf

EPS of N20.40

Book value: N70

Price to earnings ratio: 1.5

ROE 28.84% up from 12.15%

These banks are killing it.

emmaodet:
NNFM -

They sold 29,534mt of products in 9M/24, 2,590mt lesser than 9M/23 of 32,124mt.
Despite the lesser sales, they made more revenue of 29.6b than prior 9M of 21.8b.
They have been able to raise the selling price in such a way to maximize sales without hurting the revenue, but it reflected in the inventory - a 300% rise in inventory to 16.5b from 5.1b says it.
They sold 7160mt of products in Q3/24 to generate 8.5b revenue. It means inventory at 16.5b, the company can afford to sell their products for 2 quarters or 6 months (Q4/24 and Q1/25) without producing anything - Just send the workers home for 5 months.
Coupled with the fact that semolina or semovita has 6 months average best before or expiry date, it means they already have products that may be due to expire in store, before factoring in getting to wholesalers, retailers and final consumers.
It is either they slow down on production or expand their market share to sell more products.
P/E of 3.8x is low compared to peers and compared to her history, so we may see the share price go to around 100-150 per share all things been equal in a short time.
A note of caution - the OFC negative 1.7b. Checking the CCI, it was impressive. 13 days to sell and convert your inventory to cash but the large inventory is causing it to be negative.

Abeg what is OFC and CCI?

emmaodet:
I think it is the advert.
They increased their advert expenses to 95m from 2.6m while reducing their selling expenses from 3.18b to 220m. I think it paid-off.

Distribution costs should be tied more to the price of diesel more than anything else. Its possible they started telling wholesalers to come pick up from their factory, but thats just a theory.

Either way it would be good to know if the reason is one off or sustainable.

X21:
It is unexplained in the note. Best to wait for Auditors to sign off thie financial before using it to make decisions

Thanks. I'm not making any decisions for now. I'm just looking for what might be interesting in a few years

KarlTom:
Fantastic one from NNFM Q3 UFS

Massive improvement in both Operating Income and Selling and distribution expenses

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/42981_N_NIG._FLOUR_MILLS_PLC.-_QUARTER_3_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2025_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_JANUARY_2025.pdf

EPS = ₦23.07

Does anybody know why the distribution expenses dropped?

I dont think this is going to be sustainable. If it is just a one off then the result is not so good

essentialone:
Ikeja Hotel and Japaul.

Buy, Hold, or Sell?

Who you dey ask?

robobo:
hmmmmm

Incredibly daft economic/ monetary policies, (this is an ongoing target and may never be met, even the Feds/BOE are sometimes wrong)

insecurity in the country, (50/50, while in my opinion this is not deteriorating further than it was 6 yerars ago, it has also not appreciate better than it, we have just learn to kind of live with it)

COVID (resolved)

high rates in other countries. (moving target but easing compared to previous years)

overall ambivalent meaning we might still need to tarry a little (kind if medium term) if there would be any correction to this anomaly/mispricing

I expect the cheapness to be around for another year or two but it will end eventually. Either it ends or Nigeria ends in a civil war.

pluto09:
I want to believe they will still be cheap for a long time unless they ramp up dividend payments to match their bogus earnings.
The sector has arguably been the one with best dividend yield in recent years but that might not be the case this year.

How are their earnings bonus?

robobo:
and they can be for longerrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

what i would want to tease out of this discourse is what are the triggers to look out for that would help correct this anomaly/mispricing.

or what are the drivers/ factors that brought the said situation (anomaly/mispricing) 6 years ago? ? ? ? ? ?

Incredibly daft economic/ monetary policies, insecurity in the country, COVID and high rates in other countries.

That's my view

Sunrisepebble:
The Access Bank I sold "too early" at N27.80 is now available to me at N26.65

You dey use day to day price movement? Ok na. For all we know some guy needed to sell to pay foreign school fees. Another guy may be selling to buy cocaine or a new house.

Daily price movements in the stock market are very random. In the long term people selling now will regret their decisions

emmanuelewumi:
Book value is a fact.


A stock with a return on equity of over 20% should not be selling below it's book value, then if we use a discount rate of 20%, it should sell at its book value

My brother the way I dey try raise money now ehen!!! Make people dey argue with facts on ground.

When you now factor in the growth the banks are experiencing, the thing dey make me wan scream

HesInMe:
I get nervous when people speak with such certainty. All investing has downside risk. That's why I asked you to explain your valuation (of Access). Did you, for instance, exclude non-recurring FX gains? Include new shares?

No need to get nervous, it's my money to lose.

To answer your question, yes I did maximum discounting for GTB and Zenith (since I'm actually invested in those). For access I haven't yet factored in the new shares in the calculation but discounted FX gains to zero

pluto09:
Are Nigerian banks cheap at current price, yes.
Are they trading at their lowest historical valuation?,this I think is debatable.

80s average PE was 6-12

90s 12-15

Early 2000s 12-18.

Source deep seek

pluto09:
Are Nigerian banks cheap at current price, yes.
Are they trading at their lowest historical valuation?,this I think is debatable.

Debatable based on what you think or what you know?

I have been active in this market since 2003. My dad has been active since the early 80s. These valuations have not existed in all that time.

The largest bank in the country trading at a forward pe of less than 1?

I stand to be corrected but unless somebody comes at me with some actual numbers from another time period then I will stand by what I have said.

The circumstances that created this market will most likely not be repeated in our lifetime

KarlTom:
Exactly!
There's a possibility based on market sentiments.

@Nosa2 was speaking with 100% certainty...

You don't seem to know the valuations Nigerian banks are trading at vs their historical valuations

emmanuelewumi:
They said that 16 years ago based on market sentiment, not based on logic, facts and figures

I'm 2009 banks were not trading at these valuations. Valuations were much higher.

He is mistaking price with valuation

KarlTom:
About 16 years ago, someone somewhere said something similar

Let's not be too sure of ourselves.
In recent history, bigger, better institutions have failed...

16 years ago banks were not trading at these valuations

Sunrisepebble:
To be fair he could still have the last laugh. I was buying previously in expectation of FY results and dividend.
My strategy could change if they get to my valuation.
Note that this year they will not have FX gains anymore the way they did last year

You will not see these valuations again in your lifetime. You may see the price, due to stock splits etc, but to think you will see GTB trading at a pe of less than 2 again in the next 50-60, years is delusional

ojeysky:
Even though I wish this could happen to my little bag of access I think 90 is a tall order o....if access makes 90 it means zenith/gtco will be at 150. Well it's possible if naira further devalues sha

You get these kind of beliefs when you invest based on price not valuation.

Look at the valuations for the bank and you'll see that a N90 price is slightly below fair value given already released numbers.

If those numbers change the N90 can change as well.

HesInMe:
Serious question about a serious stock: How did you get to N90/share, please?

What does book value mean?

What is the book value for Access Bank?

Coolcash1:
Let me drop this!

Buy sterling bank and thank me later.

I don't see anything special in the fundamentals of Sterling Bank. Abeg share the reasoning behind your recommendation

olaremint:
If the thing reach 50 peken, na detty January be that

Why are you people in such a rush to sell? Unless you need the cash, you shouldn't be looking to sell Access at anything below N90.

Even that N90 is based on current valuations. If results come out and the valuation changes then that number should change accordingly. Don't get excited and leave the real money on the table

megawealth01:
So you want to enter my Access

If I can raise funds before it crosses N40 I will buy. Else I will wait to see Q4 results

Sunrisepebble:
I sold a small percentage of my total holdings, not all. Its still undervalued I know, but when a bank does 10%, I will always take some profit

Once again, investment is not a team sport. I took a look at my spreadsheet in order to respond to your post and right now I am looking for funds to buy access bank. So its in my best interest for there to be more sellers of access bank. Return on Equity is low compared to Zenith or GTB but the Price to Book Value Ratio is crazy low.