₦airaland Forum

faoogoke:
Ellahlakes is not doing only Palm Oil. It is also into piggery, cassava processing and has plan to do Rice farming etc
Ellahlakes is a diversified Agro business entity and not just doing Palm Oil.

Na only palm oil matter, the rest are irrelevant

starpower:
Am an
enthusiast on investing reading and sitting on my ass behavioral advantage just favour me ni. don't know much about them but would love to visit the farm if anyone can give the exact location or contact, i don't like inspirational promoter

I am interested in this as well.

emmaodet:
TIP.

MP = #4.5
Q1 eps = 350k
Est. FY eps = #1.4
Current p/e = 1.43
Q1 2024 p/e = 6.8
FY 24 p/e = 1.6
Highest p/e last 5 years was in 2022 = 10.8
Industry p/e =5
Implied price FY25 = #7

The good thing is the growth tendency.
They did 5 projects in Q1 compared to 1 project in Q1/24
They added 3 new clients in Q1 compared to none in Q1/24.
So they are growing and there is still room to grow.
Rev up 282% to 1.2b
GP = 50%
NP = 25%
Working capital increased 293% to 1.38b
eps growth of 376% from 7k from Q1/24.
OCF = 964m which give QoE of 3

What company is this?

Also please I suspect your analysis is great but the acconyms make it difficult to understand

jonnysessy:
Please, any idea why GTB is on the losers chart?

Or is their 1st Quarter very bad. Losing 10% is much. There must be a reason.

I suspect Q1 is going to be bad

KarlTom:
I want to see the market's reaction to LEGENDINT.
Can't see anything spectacular in their financials to warrant ₦5.94 listing price...

Some clowns will Sha buy

Agbalowomeri:
Better exit now

All prices will nose dive after dividends

I Edited the post after you quoted. I'm no longer rotating but these stocks are very cheap and I'm not abandoning the market

Mpeace:
Where Nosa. Come make we celebrate gtco. Wow
Don't know why I put more in zenith than gtco.

It happens.

Agbalowomeri:
Your stockbroker should be able to liaise with the company secretary/registrar

Ok. Thanks. Would price be close to quoted price or there would be a premium?

My ogas I hail. Please if one wanted to do an OTC transaction on an illiquid stock to acqquire say 10% of the company; where does one begin?

Valthegreat:
You mean down to #39 for real?

Let them continue to joke.

Yemy3m:
. said it before that oando wanted to raise fund with bond but bad rating stopped them .it is still in process .patient dog will eat fat bone

Maybe the bad rating is there for a reason.

vacanci:
biggest mistake i made was not reviewing NGX trading on BAMBOO app before trying it.

set a limit buy order yesterday for a stock. the stock closed lower than my limit price, yet my order was not filled.

i then tried to cancel the order at least let me take my money out and jejely go and use my other brokers. Unfortunately there was no where to cancel the order. my money is just there trapped

After contacting their customer service, i was told to wait for 3 working days so they can investigate thoroughly and give me feedback.

i was as shock as ever. It appeared i was operating in the 1990s.

i don't know if i am alone on this. Although i later started reading review of similar issues.

i think they are trapping clients fund and buying time with it so they can use the monies to make profit for their business.

Please if there is anyone who had similar challenge here and how it was resolved, i will like to be informed.

Thank you

Thanks for this. I was thinking of using the app but make I just dey my dey

ojeysky:
Ellahlakes and Access both gradually moving...

I dont know why folks are getting excited about Ellah Lakes. They are still setting up their nursery so they have years before they start making money from palm oil.

NGX doesnt have that kind of patient capital.

faoogoke:
As many as are hoping on palm oil producing companies, PRESCO, OKUMO and ELLAH LAKES.

As they expand their farms and with increase planting from small scale holders the possibility of a glut should be factored.

No be only glut, na gluten.

Do some research into palm oil demand in Nigeria and globally.

emmanuelewumi:
According to you the purported N300 billion revenue forecast in 2029 is not possible.

They made a revenue forecast of N39 billion for 2024 but achieved N53 billion

Presco made a full year EPS forecast of N49 for 2024 but achieved N104

Don't joke with companies that are modest with their projections

Q1 2025 result prove if they still have room for growth.

They make the Nairs equivalent of between $10,000 to $20,000 per foreign aircraft they handle .

They are also diversifying into cargo handling of the exportation of agricultural produce

Is the company doing well? YES!!!

Have I paid attention to them? NO

As I said my analysis could be wrong. However given current stock market conditions and the company's stock price, the numbers are not sexy enough to get me salivating

emmanuelewumi:
Presco at full year EPS of N100

Damn!!!

This result is sexy

emmanuelewumi:
EPS increased from 20k in 2020 to N6.60k in 2024. That is over 100% compounded annualized earning growth rate

Going forward I assume a compounded annualized earning growth rate of 30% for the next 5 years

Justified forward PE should not be less than 12

I believe two key factors are currently driving NAHCO's positive performance. First, the growing insecurity of road travel has made air travel a more attractive option, increasing demand for ground handling services. Second, although I'm less certain about this, it’s possible that NAHCO's revenue is tied to airline ticket prices, meaning that as ticket prices rise, so does their income.

However, I don’t expect these trends to continue indefinitely. In my view, we’ve reached peak levels of both insecurity and ticket prices, which suggests that the current growth drivers may not sustain in the future. As a result, I’m hesitant to bet on NAHCO’s growth continuing at this pace.

I acknowledge that I could be wrong, but this is my current perspective. That said, the recent results are undeniably strong.

emmanuelewumi:
It is growth in all ramifications,I hope they can continue going forward


Revenue N53 billion compared to N28billion in 2023


Gross profit N32 billion against N15 billion

Operating profit N19.3 billion against N8.8 billion

Net operating profit after tax N14 billion against N5.8 billion

Profit after tax N12.8 billion versus N5.5 billion

Equity N20 billion against N12.1 billion

Debt N6.2 billion against N2.6 billion

Invested capital N26.2 billion against N14.7 billion

Operating cash flow N11.3 billion against N4.6 billion

Free cash flow N6 billion against N3.4 billion

Return on equity 64% against 45%

Return on Invested capital 53% against 39%

Cash flow Return on Investment 41% against 32%

Cash Return on Invested Capital 23% against 23%

Working capital N14.4 billion against N5.6 billion

Net margin 24% against 20%

Gross Margin 61% against 53%

Operating margin 36% against 31%

Operating cash flow margin 21% against 16%

Free Cash flow margin 11% versus 12%


Debt/NOPAT 0.32 years against 0.25 years. Meaning the company's debt is equivalent to less than the Operating profit made in 4 months

The company is doing well but given current market conditions I feel the stock has priced in the performance.

Thanks for this analysis

Mpeace:
FBNH wey go carry us go places? Just wait makevwe pursue all the former owners out of this country.

The bank is really turning around

Raider76:
FBNH

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/43045_FBN_HOLDINGS_PLC-_YEAR_END_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2024_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_JANUARY_2025.pdf

EPS of N20.40

Book value: N70

Price to earnings ratio: 1.5

ROE 28.84% up from 12.15%

These banks are killing it.

emmaodet:
NNFM -

They sold 29,534mt of products in 9M/24, 2,590mt lesser than 9M/23 of 32,124mt.
Despite the lesser sales, they made more revenue of 29.6b than prior 9M of 21.8b.
They have been able to raise the selling price in such a way to maximize sales without hurting the revenue, but it reflected in the inventory - a 300% rise in inventory to 16.5b from 5.1b says it.
They sold 7160mt of products in Q3/24 to generate 8.5b revenue. It means inventory at 16.5b, the company can afford to sell their products for 2 quarters or 6 months (Q4/24 and Q1/25) without producing anything - Just send the workers home for 5 months.
Coupled with the fact that semolina or semovita has 6 months average best before or expiry date, it means they already have products that may be due to expire in store, before factoring in getting to wholesalers, retailers and final consumers.
It is either they slow down on production or expand their market share to sell more products.
P/E of 3.8x is low compared to peers and compared to her history, so we may see the share price go to around 100-150 per share all things been equal in a short time.
A note of caution - the OFC negative 1.7b. Checking the CCI, it was impressive. 13 days to sell and convert your inventory to cash but the large inventory is causing it to be negative.

Abeg what is OFC and CCI?

emmaodet:
I think it is the advert.
They increased their advert expenses to 95m from 2.6m while reducing their selling expenses from 3.18b to 220m. I think it paid-off.

Distribution costs should be tied more to the price of diesel more than anything else. Its possible they started telling wholesalers to come pick up from their factory, but thats just a theory.

Either way it would be good to know if the reason is one off or sustainable.

X21:
It is unexplained in the note. Best to wait for Auditors to sign off thie financial before using it to make decisions

Thanks. I'm not making any decisions for now. I'm just looking for what might be interesting in a few years

KarlTom:
Fantastic one from NNFM Q3 UFS

Massive improvement in both Operating Income and Selling and distribution expenses

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/42981_N_NIG._FLOUR_MILLS_PLC.-_QUARTER_3_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2025_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_JANUARY_2025.pdf

EPS = ₦23.07

Does anybody know why the distribution expenses dropped?

I dont think this is going to be sustainable. If it is just a one off then the result is not so good

essentialone:
Ikeja Hotel and Japaul.

Buy, Hold, or Sell?

Who you dey ask?

robobo:
hmmmmm

Incredibly daft economic/ monetary policies, (this is an ongoing target and may never be met, even the Feds/BOE are sometimes wrong)

insecurity in the country, (50/50, while in my opinion this is not deteriorating further than it was 6 yerars ago, it has also not appreciate better than it, we have just learn to kind of live with it)

COVID (resolved)

high rates in other countries. (moving target but easing compared to previous years)

overall ambivalent meaning we might still need to tarry a little (kind if medium term) if there would be any correction to this anomaly/mispricing

I expect the cheapness to be around for another year or two but it will end eventually. Either it ends or Nigeria ends in a civil war.

pluto09:
I want to believe they will still be cheap for a long time unless they ramp up dividend payments to match their bogus earnings.
The sector has arguably been the one with best dividend yield in recent years but that might not be the case this year.

How are their earnings bonus?

robobo:
and they can be for longerrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

what i would want to tease out of this discourse is what are the triggers to look out for that would help correct this anomaly/mispricing.

or what are the drivers/ factors that brought the said situation (anomaly/mispricing) 6 years ago? ? ? ? ? ?

Incredibly daft economic/ monetary policies, insecurity in the country, COVID and high rates in other countries.

That's my view

Sunrisepebble:
The Access Bank I sold "too early" at N27.80 is now available to me at N26.65

You dey use day to day price movement? Ok na. For all we know some guy needed to sell to pay foreign school fees. Another guy may be selling to buy cocaine or a new house.

Daily price movements in the stock market are very random. In the long term people selling now will regret their decisions

emmanuelewumi:
Book value is a fact.


A stock with a return on equity of over 20% should not be selling below it's book value, then if we use a discount rate of 20%, it should sell at its book value

My brother the way I dey try raise money now ehen!!! Make people dey argue with facts on ground.

When you now factor in the growth the banks are experiencing, the thing dey make me wan scream

HesInMe:
I get nervous when people speak with such certainty. All investing has downside risk. That's why I asked you to explain your valuation (of Access). Did you, for instance, exclude non-recurring FX gains? Include new shares?

No need to get nervous, it's my money to lose.

To answer your question, yes I did maximum discounting for GTB and Zenith (since I'm actually invested in those). For access I haven't yet factored in the new shares in the calculation but discounted FX gains to zero

pluto09:
Are Nigerian banks cheap at current price, yes.
Are they trading at their lowest historical valuation?,this I think is debatable.

80s average PE was 6-12

90s 12-15

Early 2000s 12-18.

Source deep seek