₦airaland Forum

ositadima1:
This Oando situation reminds me of the mid-90s when Nigeria's team featured the likes of Okocha and Nwankwo Kanu. If Nigeria scored, everyone would say, "Nigeria is supposed to win; they have good players." When they started losing, people would say, "Don't worry, they will equalize." But at the end of the day, Nigeria would be knocked out of the tournament, leaving fans in tears. I'm not saying that you will shed tears o, but this incessant cho cho about Oando is getting boring.

Abeg I am trying to understand why people are bullish on this coy. They made a loss in their latest result. Cost of sales is higher than revenue. Administrative expenses oh, finance cost oh, all are looking very bloody.

Once again, abeg wetin una dey see for this one?

vacanci:
June inflation would have signalled what you said but i am thinking the cost of Rams, Cows and Donkeys alone during the sallah period and the spike in cost of Pepper and beans and tomatoes this month alone will make food inflation higher than previous month. Unless if you never buy beans and pepper recently. Even Groundnut oil and roasted groundnut don spike for June. cassava flour (not garri o) and akpu that people were rushing as food for common man got doubled in price. As for akpu the amount is still N100 but it has been sliced into tiny circle which is just enough to swallow 3 times.

Omo by the time new minimum wage is announced for the less than 1% government workers, the market will further react to punish the remaining 99%.

Na hyper inflation me i dey see for now

And in a hyper inflation environment stocks do well. The dollar may do better thou

bovali:
If they raise dollar for expansion, is it Naira they will use to buy the banks in other countries? Why do you think they said don’t pay any profit from dollar revaluation gains? A lot of these banks are still sitting on usd. And the revenue they make in other countries is repatriated in usd

Fair points.

unite4real:
You didn't factor in the coupon payments for the period.

No need to add insult to injury.

ositadima1:
They issued a $500 million senior unsecured Eurobond in September 2021.
Here's a breakdown of the Eurobond:
* Issue size: $500 million
* Maturity: September 2026
* Interest rate: 6.125%
* Use of proceeds: General banking purposes.

They also issued a USD50 million green bond in 2022. This bond matures in 2027 and they are both listed on the London Stock Exchange.

Wow!!! in 2021 USD was like 475 in parallel market. Using this, they got about N237b and they are paying back N750b.

Good luck to them and their household.

Thanks for this

BabsO2:
Access has also been growing on the back of additional Tier 1 capital raised in USD to fund it's aggressive African expansion. If the expansion falters shareholders will pay for it using NGN. If the expansion succeeds the USD Tier 1 capital instrument holders will get the bulk of profits through coupon payments on the USD instrument. That means NGN shareholders have a big exposure to potential FX costs and losses if the African expansion falters, while having a probable upside should the African expansion generate returns above the coupon payments for the Tier 1 Capital instrument holders.

Going forward - One needs to monitor the contributions of the African expansion - if it is far above the cost of funds used to procure the expansion. If it isn't, the share price will not appreciate much.

Please when did they raise this capital? I've not been looking at the Nigerian markets

Streetinvestor2:
I sm seeing what you are seeing. I am seeing it in uba,zenith and gtb because of the management team.
Fbn has had bad management for years now

Book value is 53. No over look that Elephant oh

Streetinvestor2:
Na this man go bury fbn.Na inside loan be his target.Then they will write it off as bad loan.

If this was his plan he would have targeted a less iconic bank. I believe he sees what I see. These banks are trading at price levels that will not be seen again in our generation. How everyone is not seeing this is beyond me.

bovali:
Someone should help me understand something. This Beta glass. They are paying dividend of 1.4 naira this Thursday but they have 50 billion in retained earnings while the market cap is 34.8 billion. Our market sha

You're right. The company seems to have a history of having savings rate

bovali:
Someone should help me understand something. This Beta glass. They are paying dividend of 1.4 naira this Thursday but they have 50 billion in retained earnings while the market cap is 34.8 billion. Our market sha

Will look into this and revert

mendes911:
"You will regret this".

You think Banks are over valued?

Mfunkynation:
so it means there's a GOLD to be PULL before JAing

In my opinion, YES!!

NettyNelly:
I like to know how you calculated this EPS - FX gains to arrive at PE of 2

As at when I made this post I hadn't done the calculations. However having done the calculations the quality of bank earnings vary wildly, so the calculations were certainly worth doing.

To help you on your path, simply look through the relevant result and subtract FX gains, typically found in other income, from the quoted profit and use that in your calculations.

P.s before you ask me what my numbers were, don't! I believe doing the calculations give me a competitive advantage and until I have finished buying it is not in my interest to divulge my result.

bovali:
I got it from you lol

LOL seen. They should have stated though. its very misleading, even the notes of the report don't state it.

I guess its annualised but we are assuming

bovali:
1.45 * 4 = 5.8 though. So it’s probably annualised

Where did you get 1.45 from?

based on the numbers, Q1 eps should be N1.7. or am I missing something?

Laso09:
They probably annualized the earning.

That's even worse. Is it legal to do that?

I've looked through the report and it is not stated anywhere.

Plus, if you do the maths and multiply by 4 you get a different number. I think this was just a very stupid mistake

I'm looking at FCMB Q1 2024 result and the published EPS is not making sense. The maths is not mathing. If one divides the profit by outstanding shares the number is approx. 1.45 as against the 5.8 they published.

Abeg can someone else cross check this?

I don't want to believe they will make such an error

Profit attributable to equity holders (N'000) 28,770,276

Weighted average number of ordinary shares in issue ('000) 19,802,710

EPS 5.81


These published numbers dont add up.

Please did they do a conference call?

robobo:
Oga Agba let me play the devil advocate on the fundamental part of your above thesis (i would leave the technical side to the in house expert like BullBearMarket and others)

Considering that the FX gain are baked in this year (just like last year also, i.e. two year running now) and that the regulator is not allowing distribution from it, do you think those gains would be idle in the books / operations of the banks. E.g would the about a trillion FX gain by UBA (2023&2024 inclusive) be lying down idle (considering its not allowed to be distributed) or it would be employed for further gain like all other capital in its arsenal. if employed for further gain wont that be impacting the bottomline going forward? let assume at current risk free rate of at least 20% as is currently isn't that an extra 200billion impacting the bottom-line going forward for UBA as an example (it would be practically the same for all other banks)?.

Exactly. Plus I am calculating EPS minus FX gains and we are looking at PE ratios of about 2. That's still bleeding cheap

Agbalowomeri:
Sure the Forex gains are baked in for this financial year. What happens next financial year? It's more like a one-off and not sustainable. That's why you don't see the price flying through the roof. Again, they are not allowed to pay dividends with the Forex gains and dividend is the major propeller of banks price appreciation.

On the technical angle, NGSEBNK10 is bearish with formation of lower highs and lower lows on the daily and weekly. Also the daily candles are playing below the Ichimoku clouds.

However, there is a recent volume spike and if NGSEBNK10 could break above the 860 region, we might witness a trend reversal. So, overall I am bearish on the banks.

Ahh talk too much. I dey my house dey sip my garri ijebu.

Thanks. I'll rejig my spreadsheet and create a column for earnings with out the extraordinary income.

I've already bought though so...... but make I sha depress myself

Your logic make sense sha

Agbalowomeri:
Facts behind the figures sir😂
Once Forex earning is done and with all these rights issues and attendant dilution, let me siddon for my N18 yunction

I don't understand. unless the Naira gains strongly against the dollar, I don't see how the forex earnings aren't baked in. With regards to the rights issue, raising more capital for a bank as efficient as GTB is a good thing.

Anyways, GTB is my second largest position. My main focus is FCMB. Those guys raised like N26b at 16%. Today rates are over 30%. That's easy money right there.


My oga please I am very much open to being told I am wrong. I love to hear counter arguments cause I may not be seeing something

megawealth01:
You mean it's very cheap at Current Market Price?

Well I'm buying. The guy who is selling obviously thinks it's expensive and as such will go down (he could also need money for school fees sha but thats another story). Either way Time will tell.

megawealth01:
You mean it's very cheap at CMP?

I no understand that acronym oh

KayOn1:
The timing of this your return to Nigerian market is suspect though. For you to return by this time T, ...

I no talk pass so. Welcome back make we "rofo rofo" am together because it is about to ...

In my opinion the devaluation is done. Nigerian equites are ridiculously cheap. Look at GTB, ROE of over 60% yet forward PE is less than 1. That's crazy na. Its almost like free money.

Agbalowomeri:
Typical NOSA😂

My brother na lie?!! everybody dey chop woto woto for this market?

KayOn1:
Well, ....
The best advice I can give those starting out, seek knowledge and avoid handouts.

https://www.drewinvestments.com/reading-list

Exactly. Just google top 10 books on stock market investing. Read them and you'll be good.

You will lose, you will gain, but at least you will understand what is going on.

KayOn1:
Just wondering if people like @Emmanuelewumi, BullBearMkt, Nosa2, KOD, & ... decide to monetize their expertise, ...

Well, who no know person dey call am my friend.

**
“If you see someone without a smile today, give ‘em yours,” D. Parton

When it comes to financial markets there are no experts, people claim to be experts but how many of them consistently beat the market long term. Most people over publicize their gains and stay mum on the losses.

With regards to me selling financial advise...... my brother country hard but I find that networking with people is far more profitable than collecting money to tell someone what pretty much amounts to an educated guess.

chillykelly86:
You're welcome. You're one of those that made our experience on SMN rich and rewarding. Looking forward to your useful insights.

Thanks. That forum was a life changing experience for me as well. I probably, sorry, most definitely gained more than what ever I gave

Agbalowomeri:
He didn't wait on his dream. He should have being a billionaire in NEM by now😂

Factoring for currency devaluation was the move that great?

Streetinvestor2:
My senior oga.I know you are the one.I have two questions
1.Do you still have those your millions of nem
2 How far with the farm then in the North

1.Do you still have those your millions of nem
Sold them a lifetime ago


2 How far with the farm then in the North
Abandoned then sold. Na who dey alive dey find money.

chillykelly86:
Just curious, is this the same Oga Nosa of SMN?

Yes oh........... I'm back in the Nigerian market. Make we come rofo rofo the place

megawealth01:
This is a news of a month ago... The private placement was #0.60

The current price is 0.44-0.46

If you ask me... BUY if you can risk it... DYOR

They said they are on the part of restructuring

Their staff costs are high, and with the increase in minimum wage this is only set to balloon. On first glance this looks interesting but looking deeper and its not so rosy

Can you fix elite series 2 controller and normal Xbox controller