₦airaland Forum

Mfunkynation:
so it means there's a GOLD to be PULL before JAing

In my opinion, YES!!

NettyNelly:
I like to know how you calculated this EPS - FX gains to arrive at PE of 2

As at when I made this post I hadn't done the calculations. However having done the calculations the quality of bank earnings vary wildly, so the calculations were certainly worth doing.

To help you on your path, simply look through the relevant result and subtract FX gains, typically found in other income, from the quoted profit and use that in your calculations.

P.s before you ask me what my numbers were, don't! I believe doing the calculations give me a competitive advantage and until I have finished buying it is not in my interest to divulge my result.

bovali:
I got it from you lol

LOL seen. They should have stated though. its very misleading, even the notes of the report don't state it.

I guess its annualised but we are assuming

bovali:
1.45 * 4 = 5.8 though. So it’s probably annualised

Where did you get 1.45 from?

based on the numbers, Q1 eps should be N1.7. or am I missing something?

Laso09:
They probably annualized the earning.

That's even worse. Is it legal to do that?

I've looked through the report and it is not stated anywhere.

Plus, if you do the maths and multiply by 4 you get a different number. I think this was just a very stupid mistake

I'm looking at FCMB Q1 2024 result and the published EPS is not making sense. The maths is not mathing. If one divides the profit by outstanding shares the number is approx. 1.45 as against the 5.8 they published.

Abeg can someone else cross check this?

I don't want to believe they will make such an error

Profit attributable to equity holders (N'000) 28,770,276

Weighted average number of ordinary shares in issue ('000) 19,802,710

EPS 5.81


These published numbers dont add up.

Please did they do a conference call?

robobo:
Oga Agba let me play the devil advocate on the fundamental part of your above thesis (i would leave the technical side to the in house expert like BullBearMarket and others)

Considering that the FX gain are baked in this year (just like last year also, i.e. two year running now) and that the regulator is not allowing distribution from it, do you think those gains would be idle in the books / operations of the banks. E.g would the about a trillion FX gain by UBA (2023&2024 inclusive) be lying down idle (considering its not allowed to be distributed) or it would be employed for further gain like all other capital in its arsenal. if employed for further gain wont that be impacting the bottomline going forward? let assume at current risk free rate of at least 20% as is currently isn't that an extra 200billion impacting the bottom-line going forward for UBA as an example (it would be practically the same for all other banks)?.

Exactly. Plus I am calculating EPS minus FX gains and we are looking at PE ratios of about 2. That's still bleeding cheap

Agbalowomeri:
Sure the Forex gains are baked in for this financial year. What happens next financial year? It's more like a one-off and not sustainable. That's why you don't see the price flying through the roof. Again, they are not allowed to pay dividends with the Forex gains and dividend is the major propeller of banks price appreciation.

On the technical angle, NGSEBNK10 is bearish with formation of lower highs and lower lows on the daily and weekly. Also the daily candles are playing below the Ichimoku clouds.

However, there is a recent volume spike and if NGSEBNK10 could break above the 860 region, we might witness a trend reversal. So, overall I am bearish on the banks.

Ahh talk too much. I dey my house dey sip my garri ijebu.

Thanks. I'll rejig my spreadsheet and create a column for earnings with out the extraordinary income.

I've already bought though so...... but make I sha depress myself

Your logic make sense sha

Agbalowomeri:
Facts behind the figures sir😂
Once Forex earning is done and with all these rights issues and attendant dilution, let me siddon for my N18 yunction

I don't understand. unless the Naira gains strongly against the dollar, I don't see how the forex earnings aren't baked in. With regards to the rights issue, raising more capital for a bank as efficient as GTB is a good thing.

Anyways, GTB is my second largest position. My main focus is FCMB. Those guys raised like N26b at 16%. Today rates are over 30%. That's easy money right there.


My oga please I am very much open to being told I am wrong. I love to hear counter arguments cause I may not be seeing something

megawealth01:
You mean it's very cheap at Current Market Price?

Well I'm buying. The guy who is selling obviously thinks it's expensive and as such will go down (he could also need money for school fees sha but thats another story). Either way Time will tell.

megawealth01:
You mean it's very cheap at CMP?

I no understand that acronym oh

KayOn1:
The timing of this your return to Nigerian market is suspect though. For you to return by this time T, ...

I no talk pass so. Welcome back make we "rofo rofo" am together because it is about to ...

In my opinion the devaluation is done. Nigerian equites are ridiculously cheap. Look at GTB, ROE of over 60% yet forward PE is less than 1. That's crazy na. Its almost like free money.

Agbalowomeri:
Typical NOSA😂

My brother na lie?!! everybody dey chop woto woto for this market?

KayOn1:
Well, ....
The best advice I can give those starting out, seek knowledge and avoid handouts.

https://www.drewinvestments.com/reading-list

Exactly. Just google top 10 books on stock market investing. Read them and you'll be good.

You will lose, you will gain, but at least you will understand what is going on.

KayOn1:
Just wondering if people like @Emmanuelewumi, BullBearMkt, Nosa2, KOD, & ... decide to monetize their expertise, ...

Well, who no know person dey call am my friend.

**
“If you see someone without a smile today, give ‘em yours,” D. Parton

When it comes to financial markets there are no experts, people claim to be experts but how many of them consistently beat the market long term. Most people over publicize their gains and stay mum on the losses.

With regards to me selling financial advise...... my brother country hard but I find that networking with people is far more profitable than collecting money to tell someone what pretty much amounts to an educated guess.

chillykelly86:
You're welcome. You're one of those that made our experience on SMN rich and rewarding. Looking forward to your useful insights.

Thanks. That forum was a life changing experience for me as well. I probably, sorry, most definitely gained more than what ever I gave

Agbalowomeri:
He didn't wait on his dream. He should have being a billionaire in NEM by now😂

Factoring for currency devaluation was the move that great?

Streetinvestor2:
My senior oga.I know you are the one.I have two questions
1.Do you still have those your millions of nem
2 How far with the farm then in the North

1.Do you still have those your millions of nem
Sold them a lifetime ago


2 How far with the farm then in the North
Abandoned then sold. Na who dey alive dey find money.

chillykelly86:
Just curious, is this the same Oga Nosa of SMN?

Yes oh........... I'm back in the Nigerian market. Make we come rofo rofo the place

megawealth01:
This is a news of a month ago... The private placement was #0.60

The current price is 0.44-0.46

If you ask me... BUY if you can risk it... DYOR

They said they are on the part of restructuring

Their staff costs are high, and with the increase in minimum wage this is only set to balloon. On first glance this looks interesting but looking deeper and its not so rosy

Can you fix elite series 2 controller and normal Xbox controller

mosh2035:
AccessCorp

A break above and retest of N19.65 will be CLEAR SKIES...

What service do you use to get charts?

awesomeJ:
Guys, check out my new way of doing FA using Meta AI inside WhatsApp.

The bot is super accurate:

Meta AI works with real time data? Wahala

Zegra:
https://www.vanguardngr.com/2021/02/updated-fg-to-sell-oil-in-naira-to-15bn-dangote-refinery/

This was before rubber hit road

Please do you know any details of how dangote is going to sell his refined products?

I'm particularly interested in what currency he is selling in

locodemy:
Agba don ask before say second half year results dey work?
Fbn, Transcorp, MRS, NAHCo etc dem have good results.
Na to take eyes know which stocks to position now before any rally sha.Maybe towards end of Q3 rally go show again.

If people notice this and act accordingly then.....

ebuka1997:
If FCMB no go on correct full bid with this result, e go pain me. I've been on this FCMB bus since, it needs to be a medium term stock like Fidelity

I'm on this bus but I don't want a rally just yet because I need to increase my position significantly.

Did they announce interim dividend?

jarkbauer:
It’s unfair to shareholders who bought oando shares at very high price for oando to go private by now oando will selling at very high price.

Fair and Nigeria don't go in the same sentence

yMcy56:
UNITY: @1.78! Full bid
JAPAUL @1.22! Full bid
CHAMS @1.27! Full bid
JAIZ @1.98! Full bid
TRANSCORP @4.54! Full bid
FTN COCOA @3.50! Full bid
NASCON @25.15! Full bid
CHI PLC @1.41!
MRS @1.08!
GT @37!
ZEE @36.40!
FCMB @7.30!
FIDELITY @9.60!


MRS now @109.45!!
Hope for ETERNA...

I would be weary of petroleum downstream stocks. Deregulation means reduced demand for product and storage.

thesilentone:
Please can folks on here inform us when their uber drivers, market women start to talk to them about NGX.

That information is going to be critical.

Thanks

Calm down. This bull market is just beginning

9free:
For Oga nosa2 to leave farm work and enter market today, this current Burundi bull will be in the market longer than we expected.

I've been on NSE for a few months now. I don chop 60% on access already.

MrDiligence:
Please sir, kindly give examples of such businesses. Thank you in advance

Look at fcmb. Forward PE is currently less than 1. Even at N30 is still cheap and it's currently N5.3