A recruiting firm advertised for a job and people from Ward A and Ward B applied. The recruiting firm was tasked to recruit at least 25% of people from Ward A and Ward B. If there are 3600 people from Ward A and 80 people from Ward B, what's the minimum number of people the firm should at least employ?
A. 880 B. 900 C. 920 D. 925 E. None of the Above
Note: Ward A and Ward B are both Wards ie Ward B is equally as important as Ward A even though it consists of a fewer number of people.
tplayer: "The chances of both type I and type II error is 5%."
This is highly, highly unlikely (in fact impossible) if your sample size is 300 plus.
Otherwise, you have a solid knowledge of statistics.
The formula for sample size calculation is: S = z2*p*(1-p)/e2
Where z is the z-score which is 1.96 for 95% confidence level p is the population proportion of those who voted which is 28.3% e is the margin of error which we take as 5%
Solving this will give you a sample size of slightly over 300.
Thus my sample size was more than adequate. The 5% margin of error confirms that my type II error is within 5%. Also my sampling methodology and the entire research protocol demonstrate the power of the study. As regards the possibility of type I error, mere looking at the data, it is obvious there is no type I error. But a confirmatory test can be done using chi-square to test for statistical significant difference between the result I collated from my sample and the result as collated by INEC. The test will reveal that there is no statistical difference with a p-value less than 0.05 (my p-value is actually 0.000031). This explains why I said I am over 95% confident on my result.
I must however repeat my caveat that this study is based on the assumption that the results from IREV are the authentic results. This is being contested in the Courts.
Badgers14: Sample of 314 polling units out of how many total polling units in Nigeria??
Trying to understand your sampling
Ekpekus: Random sampling Again, the sample size won't give a true reflection of results. What was the p-value?
CodeTemplar: My regard for this moniker just dropped like a thousandth fold. You expect me to accept your randomness of sample like that. I cannot. The randomness is everything in an exercise like this.
akinade28: How did you do your sampling? How can we trust your sampling process?
imbless: Which sample technique did you use? As a statistician u are, why did you use 314 result sheet to judge a population of more than 150k size? This your analysis is next to bullcrap.
OfficialAPCNig: My brother that's not how to run statistical analysis for a heterogeneous data population.
First, you have to segment the population into it's homogenous units and then randomly select 314 data points to form your data samples.
In the case of this election, Nigeria is a federation with 36 federating unit and an FCT.
So, make generalization that is valid and representative, you have to randomly select 314 PUs from each state and the FCT. So you need at least a sample size of at least 11,618 to make a valid submission.
But if you are sampling a state, then you need to draw your samples from it's constituent units, that's is the LGA.
So, basing your analysis on a sample size of 314 PUs drawn nationwide will give you a miss leading results.
So, always break a hetergenous population to it's homogenous units before drawing your samples.
Regards
sonnie10: Out of over 170k polling units you claimed to have used sample size from 314 PUs to come to a reasonable conclusion?.
Secondly, the reliability of the data both from Irev and the online source is questionable. You can’t build truth from falsehood. It is called veracity of information source in data analysis. So, out of the psychometric properties in data authentication, reliability, veracity and sensitivity , you got none right.
Thirdly, what process did you use in the randomization. Did you consider the skewed manner different voters are distributed in Nigeria . In other words, no standard deviation was considered in your analysis.
What was your inclusion and exclusion criteria when collecting the samples? Not all data should be used for analysis, even if they were randomly collected.
Fifth, you failed to declare your interest in the process. Bias error could affect the method and analysis. Are you APC, LP or PDP? Who is bank rolling you? LP does not give shi shi!
In conclusion, your analysis failed to achieve its intended goal.
thatigboman: Obinoscopy, no be only u study statistics o. Drop the full evidence of your research. Drop the samples u used, drop the research methodology u used, drop your tools of research analysis and your formulae and lculations used in the research and the results. That enabled you come to this conclusion. And mind u, if u are a scientist, you know that scientists are not allowed to dabble into politics, just carry out your research and state the result of what u carried out. And not just say u took the samples from all the whole states, how did u take them? Did u go to Irev for example and choose all the third local govts in each particular state and download all the polling unit results in all of them? And if there are polling units reports missing, did u state that in your comment?
AdoOloro: You could still be wrong sir. Mere 314 polling stations is inadequate to draw conclusions. What if you chose results from places where the APC had the highest votes and the LP the lowest. Example, the middle belt. Your entire 314, though you selected them randomly, could come from that region. Now imagine that you picked like 70% of that 314 from Lagos and plateau states unknowingly, your conclusions wouldn't be same as you claim now.( Lagos and plateau states being states where the LP which came third in the announcement had crazily high votes) Even if you decided to pick evenly randomly from each state, your result wouldn't be adequate to draw your kind of conclusion. As you could still have made a one-sided selection. In a nutshell, my point is, you need all the results of all the polling stations to be able to draw a conclusion.
tplayer: Hello, well done. I love that you love statistics. Our disregard for it is one reason this nation is not progressing fast. But I have one few question:
How exactly did you arrive at such a very small sample size? I think the statistical power is too low to make your result reliable. You are exposing yourself to too much beta here.
Otherwise, I like your sampling method.
GboyegaD: Your analysis is very warped. You have less than 1% of the total number of polling units, nothing is said about how you sampled your polling units, and here you are making inferences that generalizes. This is not right in any way for a Statistician and I am very sure you know this.
Inosky: There are over 176,000 polling units, and you didn't pick up to a thousand of it, only picked 314, my dear, the validity of your result or conclusion is unacceptable and questionable.
You need at least 50% of the polling units' results selected randomly in all the states before making any claims. If not, die your false claims.
Poanan: Obinoscopy, i know u went to Unilag and u did project in final year. What i am not sure of is the type of project u did If it is qualitative or quantitative. Using a sample of 341 out of over 170k is not a good sample at all and not representative. This is a very sensitive matter and sample cannot be used to make an opinion. Ask the auditors sometimes they do 100% depending on the materiality of the item.
If you read my OP thoroughly, you would see I also provided a link that showed my research and sampling protocol. But I will explain my research protocol again here. And I will try to be concise.
I got my sample size using an online sample size calculator. It was calculated using a margin of error of 5%, a confidence level of 95%, a population size of 176000 PUs and a Population Proportion of 28% (that is the percentage of voters that actually voted). For those questioning the representative capability of 314 PUs for a population size of 176000 PUs, I recommend you go read statistical sampling. The beauty of sampling is that it enables you make some deduction about the population without having to studying the entire population.
The most critical aspect of sampling is randomization. This is because while sampling, we must ensure that every member of the population has an equal chance of being selected. The best type of sampling is the simple random sampling which is what I did. However i am aware of the heterogeneity of the 176000 PUs, that is while I also did multistage sampling as well. First I made sure ALL the States (including FCT) were represented in the sample. Within each States, LGA and Wards and PUs were randomly samples (multistage sampling).
So in conclusion, my statistical power is strong. The chances of both type I and type II error is 5%. I am 95% confident of my result. I can say that if you manually collate the results for Rivers State, LP won massively. However APC won fair and square if you collate the results from IREV for all the States, FCT inclusive.
However we all know that there are questions on the veracity of the result sheets on IREV. The veracity will be questioned in the Courts, I'm just using the data provided by INEC to make my inference.
Pythagoras001: did you include the probability that what you have randomly selected may have been doctored in your analysis ?? I have evidence of result uploaded offline been changed after upload. how many times did you repeat the trial with different random sample?? what was the mean, SD? I would suggest pick 100 random polling center run the analysis. pick another 100 random polling center run the analysis 1000 thousand times
GreyLaw: You are a statistician and not a programmer. Your methodology is wrong from the outset. Your sample based on falsehood.
Let the courts help reveal the real sample then you can apply your statistics. Stop applying statistics on a corrupted sample.
stillme231: you are getting it wrong.. did they transmit the result automatically? No be wetin Dem read for hall Dem go collate before? U waste ur time dey do yeye statistics lol
InvertedHammer: / So far as the results were not uploaded real time as stipulated, the data you used in your analysis is tainted and cooked. What does it take to upload pictures? Rumour has it that INEC refused to give passwords to her staff to do so. That's high level collusion. Thus no human being with an iota of integrity should reference the data uploaded ( or still being uploaded) by INEC.
Even in something as simple as a class research, professors query the integrity of data used in analysis. /
Onyipk: As a statistician, who I believe have some knowledge of mathematics and economics , the first thing you should beware of using is altered data filled with corrective fluidl. Now in accounting another thing you should watch out for is transposing errors.
BIVAS MUST BALANCE.
Thus you must watch out if As figure was moved to C and vice- versa. For February 25, 2023 was a day the greatest OPEN EYE THEFT HAPPENED IN NIGERIA.
Amumaigwe: That's why INEC declared him the winner. What new information have you put forward? The dispute is that the results uploaded on IREV were falsified. Obi is already in court, you people should meet him there. You people should stop running helter skelter.
chuckdelis: You failed the ultimate and most important step before data analysis which is data reliability. There is no point analyzing an incorrect data.
millionaireman: The result you deduced from what you got from INEC’S IREV portal is the same result the PDP and LP are challenging. So what use is your deducted result, Obinoscopy?
DeTruthh: Keep deceiving yourself. The results uploaded by INEC, are they the true copy of the results collated and signed by the party agents at the polling units?
Or they are results single handedly written and signed by an INEC official?
Modified. For your last paragraph, we will prove in court. This is because according to the law, it says that the signed copy by all party agents shall be snapped and sent to the IREV.
So those results with same handwriting and signature for different agents just dey make me laugh.
samuelson06: Your analysis is poor. You can't analyze a bad data. Data on IREV is largely manipulated to favor Tinubu.
justli: If you paid close attention to the results, you'd have realised the percentage of results mutilated by canceling and adulterating the entered figured is staggering.
luluosas: Have you laid your hands on the hard copy results sheet that INEC based their SELECTION ON? Just a friendly question please. I come in PEACE. Thank you.
Leon90: From your analysis, it is quite clear that you do not understand the fraud that happened. The results on IREV portal are those already manipulated before uploading. You should have also checked the scanned result sheets from the polling units you sample and see the magic APC performed.
Deepthoughts: The results loaded onto the IREV by INEC are dubious n unreliable,they are the written data from the altered n manipulated result sheets from the last presidential election,if you get to see the physical paper copies of some of those results from where the data uploaded onto the IREV was taken you would she'd tears due to how defaced by alteration n cancellations,no sane person in a sane clime would have accepted such as a valid document, I'm sure LP/obi's legal teams made photocopies of them as part of their INEC documents inspectors, Nigerians are going to be shocked,your so call statistical inference is made based on dubious data n therefore baseless, valueless n misleading, going forward parties should always insist on INEC pasting the polling units results of elections at the polling units immediately after the polls before forwarding the results to the collation centres to guard against alterations, falsification n manipulations.
poseidon12: You are using the already doctored results for your analysis. APC and INEC refused to upload results from the polling units to the IREV until they manually adjust the results in favour of APC. The manipulations happened at the collation centers. According to INEC guidelines, results are supposed to be uploaded from the polling units, not from the collation centers. LP won the election. APC came a distant third.
Guys, I know there is justifiable reason to question the result sheets currently on IREV because they were not uploaded in real time. I am not saying the results on IREV are accurate. I am just trying to verify the claim by some people that if you collate all the results on IREV, LP still won. That claim is false. I'm 95% confident that the claim is false. If all the results on IREV are collated, APC won fair and square. LP and PDP are in Court to contest the result. I'm sure they will contest the result sheets on IREV, hopefully they will be able to make their case and prove that the result sheets on IREV are manipulated hence false.
omonnakoda: He is challenging the results He is asking to be declared winner
Based on the Process. He is asking to be declared winner based on the process. He believes if the process is done well and all the valid votes are counted, he will win.
As a statistician, I've always believed in the powers of deductive inference based on sampling.
INEC has uploaded over 94% of the Presidential Results on the IREV Portal. Now there are people who believe that the result announced by INEC is significantly different from the result uploaded on IREV. I decided to randomly select result sheets from IREV and collate. The sample size was 314 result sheets. That sample size was gotten from an online sample size calculator. Click on this link to see my research protocol: https://www.nairaland.com/7614305/statistical-analysis-inec-result-irev
The result is very interesting.
RESULT So after collating the result sheets from randomly selected 314 polling units, APC got a total of 15394 votes. LP got 10430 votes. NNPP got 2613 votes. And PDP got 11533 votes. So APC got the majority of votes followed by the PDP, then LP and finally NNPP.
This means INEC declaration is in tune with what's uploaded on IREV. However I noticed that the result for Rivers State is very strange. My collated result shows LP has more than 4 times the votes gotten by either APC or PDP.
So in conclusion, the IREV result is almost exactly what INEC declared. The only discrepancy is that of Rivers State. I might have to inspect that of Rivers State even further in my next analysis. But despite the Rivers State discrepancy, APC won fair and square based on the results on IREV Portal. I say this with 95% confidence.
Whether the results from IREV is authentic or not is a matter for another discuss. My focus was just to use the results I saw on the IREV Portal.
IVORY2009: Why not, to make the case a smooth ride for the Lp, the said persecutor could be called upon to testify of his findings, and what made Mr Tinubu to forfeit that some of monies to the United States government, regarding him be qualified to run for the top office, it would mean he can not.
Read section 137(1)(e) of the Nigerian Constitution, an exconvict can contest for election after 10 years.
But it wont be done because, no body has brought it to the hearing of the court Those wo did that (Lp,Pdp) are doing it under the election petition and it will run for a total of highest 180 days
So the Election tribunal wont give the verdict on this 25% ish alone, it has to hear all the cases and give a judgement
Therefore it would be wrong for the tribunal to rush and give a judgement on this particular case and leave the others.. it's not done like that bro
In cases of "constitutional crises" I believe the Courts can do what they have to do to preserve the rule of law.
IVORY2009: The drug related case is going to be a big one, because the persecutor in far away United States is very much ready to testify against Tinubu, and he is very much still alive
How sure are you that he will testify in a Nigerian Court? He is an American and not required to honor any invitation from a Nigerian Court. And even if he succeeds in convincing the Courts that Tinubu is a convicted drug baron, does it mean an exconvict can NEVER run for elective office for LIFE? I think after a period of time, that exconvict can vie for office. My thinking though.
The inec chairman sold presidential election for million of dollars..
Supreme Court will clear the matter
I think they had to use AND because using OR would mean something very ludicrous. Imagine if they had said the winner must get 25% of votes in two-thirds of the States of the federation OR the FCT. It would mean mean someone can get 25% in the FCT and not get 25% in the other 24 States and still win the election.
Both the PDP and LP are contesting the Presidential Election and one of their prayers is that the election be cancelled based on the fact that Tinubu failed to get 25% of the valid votes cast in FCT Abuja which they claim is a constitutional requirement.
The part of the Constitution they are citing is Section 134 which states that the winner must meet two requirements: 1. Must get the highest number of votes 2. Must get 25% of the votes in two-thirds of the States of the Federation AND the FCT.
The bone of contention is the "AND" in that FCT requirement. Some school of thought are of the view that the "AND" imply the winner MUST also get 25% of votes cast in the FCT while the other school of thought believe the "AND" imply the FCT MAY also be considered as one of the "States" that MAY make the two-thirds requirements.
It's kind of confusing and that is why it's imperative the Courts wade into this ASAP and give their verdict to prevent any possible constitutional crises. I recommend the Appeal Court gives speedy hearing on the 25% requirement case and give their verdict. This will enable the Supreme Court give a final verdict before May 29 incase the verdict of the Appeal Court gets contested. The Appeal Court can always look at the other prayers of the election petitioners at a later date. Those cases can go beyond the May 29 date.
If you ask me, I think its best the Courts go with the latter school of thought that believe the framers of the Constitution intended to make FCT one of the "States" that MAY (not MUST) be considered when collating States that make the the two-third requirement. Meaning the candidate needs to make 25% of two-thirds of 37 "States" which approximates 25% in 25 "States". FCT can be part of the 25 "States" OR may not. If you ask me, based on INEC results, Tinubu got 25% in 30 States which is more than enough.
The people living in the FCT are not more special than people living in the federation States so it will be wrong to go with the former school of thought of making 25% compulsory for the FCT. If we do that, it means the elections in the FCT will be a do or die affair in the future.
On a lighter note, this electoral conundrum of the definition of the word "AND" is the reason why English is a very problematic subject. I always prefer Mathematics.
P.S. I'm an Obidient. I still believe Peter Obi won based on the valid votes cast during the election. I believe Peter Obi won with a wider margin in Lagos, Imo and Plateau State. I believe Peter won Rivers State. I also believe his votes in the other States he lost was more than what was given him. I believe that is his strongest case. This 25% case or the certificate case or the drug case are not strong enough and will be struck off. But these are just my views.
The former President of the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA), Olisa Agbakoba, actually saw this political conundrum of 25% requirement coming and wrote to INEC seeking clarification and also seeking their understanding of Section 134 of the Constitution which states that the winner of a presidential election must get 25% of the casted votes in two-thirds of the States and the FCT. He wrote the letter in January, 2023.
The video above even shows Agbakoba asking the INEC spokesman, Festus Okoye, this same question and Festus dodged giving a response. He simply said the INEC Chairman will be the only one who can answer this question and the Chairman will only answer this question after the election is conducted. The video was before the election.
aieromon: 1. If there was 95% turnout, allocating more Lagos PUs in the sample would have been ideal. However, this is not reliable when we look at the actual turnout:- Lagos - 13,325 PUs vs 1,347,152 accredited voters ~ 101 votes per PU. Jigawa - 4,522 PUs vs 961,670 accredited voters ~ 213 votes per PU. I use accredited voter data because some of the uploaded EC8A result sheets were cancelled at the Ward/LGA collation centres for various reasons. What stops Analyst B from pulling more units from Jigawa into his/her sample?
I still don't understand your point. This is simply proportional sampling which is a very common statistical principle.
Let's use the instance you provided ie Lagos and Jigawa. Since Lagos has 13,325 PUs and Jigawa has 4,522 PUs it means my sample should have about 3 times more PUs from Lagos. In actuality, my Sample will have 24 PUs from Lagos and 8 PUs from Jigawa. Now using your estimation, 101 voters/PUs in Lagos will mean my sample will have data for 101 × 24 voters which gives 2,424. Similarly, for Jigawa, my sample should have 213 × 8 voters which gives 1,704. So Lagos data will have 2,424 voters while Jigawa data will have 1,704. Is this not comparable to the overall accredited data you just provided?
2. For states where the candidate won all the LGAs, bias will be minimised. It becomes complicated when attempting to sample PUs from states where the candidates shared LGA wins. Take for example Kaduna results: PDP - 554,360 in 14 LGAs APC - 399,293 in 2 LGAs LP - 294,494 in 7 LGAs
That's why I intend selecting the LGAs based on Simple Random Sampling. That gives every LGAs equal chance of being selected. The beauty of Random Sampling is that it eliminates Selection Bias. The Central Limit Theorem in Statistics is the basis for Statistical Deductions from Sampling. I recommend you read that theorem.
Civetcat: These guys mumu sha. It might also land you in prison . How did you come in contact with sensitive electoral materials? In fact , that result can be rendered invalid.
Your scaring tactics won't work. The result sheets of each polling units are usually pasted on the wall after the election results are announced. So what's the crime of simply taking a snapshot of that result pasted on the wall?
It won't be admissible as evidence in a competent court.
Try the court of social media 😂
It's not about admissibility in Court. It's about transparency. It's about the truth. It's about demonstrating to INEC that electronic transmission of results is not a big deal.
aieromon: Already doomed to be biased from the start point. Take Lagos for example, the turnout was 19% compared to Jigawa which had 42%.
You have 94% of the results on ireV. It might be time consuming but not impossible to tally.
I know you to be very versed so I will engage you.
Why do you think its biased? The sampling is based on those who voted and the results are on IREV. Even though Lagos had a lower turn out in terms of percentage however Lagos still have more voters in terms of numbers.
A group of tech savvy guys have developed a website where Nigerians can upload polling result sheet snapshots. This is one of the ways we can monitor the elections to make sure it's free and fair and transparent.
This is something INEC had issues with. Let's show them that electronic transmission of results shouldn't be a big deal.
About Collate Collate is a service that allows Nigerians to upload the results from their polling units and transparently share it with the world. It is billed to improve election transparency.
Collate was built in response to the failures of the Independent National Electoral Commission to upload results to the public by law during the Presidential elections.
It was built in a week by a team led by Oo Nwoye and Ozo Omosigho. You can read more on the inspiration here.
This has been covered by Vanguard, Arise TV, TechPoint, Tech City etc
Everyone is aware of the IREV disaster of the Presidential Election which has made people doubt the veracity of results uploaded on there. However, people still say that Tinubu did not even win if we were to add up all the results on IREV. I learnt someone even tried to do so but it was marred with controversies in of itself. The result he finally posted was almost Meaningless. So I decided to do some the collation myself. But because I'm doing it alone, I cannot download and collate over 160,000 polling unit results. That's almost impossible. What I would do is sampling which is a very scientific way to analyse results.
I intend to make sure the sampling gives every polling units equal chance of being selected. It would also take into cognisance, the various geopolitical zones. So that means I would use simple random sampling and also multistage sampling. Sample size would be calculated using an online sample size calculator. The confidence interval will be 95%, margin of error will be 5%. The Population Size would be the total number of Polling Unit Results that has been uploaded into IREV on the day I intend doing the collation and analysis (hopefully tomorrow). There are currently 166,468 results uploaded, that number might increase tomorrow. The proportion will be the percent of registered voters that participated in the election.
Polling Units will be selected from each of the States. The number for each States will be proportional to the number of polling units each States has so that States like Lagos will have the highest number of polling units in the Sample and FCT will have the least number. Multistage sampling will be done on the LGAs within the States and the Wards within the LGAs and the Polling Units within the Wards.
IREV will be the source data. The sampling list will also be on IREV. In a situation where a polling unit result is not clear or unusable, another simple random sampling will be done within the Ward to select another Polling Unit. This will continue until a usable Polling Unit Result is gotten from that Ward.
The collated result will be posted on here. The link to the Spreadsheet used for the analysis will also be provided here.
I decided to post this here so this my intended protocol will be critiqued. Posted this here to eliminate the possibility of bias.
Northernblood8: Who is the Governorship Candidate of Labor party?
I honestly don't know but that Labour Party guy might win unless the APGA candidate campaigns vigorously and miracle smiles on him. PDP is not in this race. It's between Labour and APGA.
So you honestly believe the perpetrators have been arrested? Have they been charged to court let alone convicted? What was the motive? Who are the sponsors?
Even the newspaper that published this news said the perpetrators are still at large. Here is the excerpt:
The PUNCH reports that 41 people lost their lives while many sustained various degrees of injuries in the deadly attack at St Francis Catholic Church. However, no arrest has been made after the incident.
“As you know, we also have a lady whose two legs were amputated. The government has provided for her necessary prosthesis that she can use. I’m told that she has been able to use it. Her rehabilitation is moving on well, and we are sure that she will still live a normal life. That is what I believe, she will live a normal life. So, for us, it is just a way of remembering those 41 souls that died.”
No she won't live a normal life if the perpetrators are still living free. There is need for justice. Lots and lots of crime has been committed in this country and nothing has been done about arresting and prosecuting the perpetrators. We need justice in this country.
Obinoscopy: This space is reserved for the actual winner.
And the winner is Buhariguy! He correctly predicted that Tinubu would win followed by Atiku and then Obi. He was aldo the closest in the points allocated to the 3 candidates. So the 100 dollars goes to Buhariguy.
So Buhariguy, DM me so we can discuss how you want to get the 100 dollars. You may DM Okoroawusa as well as he promised 20000 naira as well.