₦airaland Forum

aieromon:
1. If there was 95% turnout, allocating more Lagos PUs in the sample would have been ideal. However, this is not reliable when we look at the actual turnout:-
Lagos - 13,325 PUs vs 1,347,152 accredited voters ~ 101 votes per PU.
Jigawa - 4,522 PUs vs 961,670 accredited voters ~ 213 votes per PU.
I use accredited voter data because some of the uploaded EC8A result sheets were cancelled at the Ward/LGA collation centres for various reasons. What stops Analyst B from pulling more units from Jigawa into his/her sample?

I still don't understand your point. This is simply proportional sampling which is a very common statistical principle.

Let's use the instance you provided ie Lagos and Jigawa. Since Lagos has 13,325 PUs and Jigawa has 4,522 PUs it means my sample should have about 3 times more PUs from Lagos. In actuality, my Sample will have 24 PUs from Lagos and 8 PUs from Jigawa. Now using your estimation, 101 voters/PUs in Lagos will mean my sample will have data for 101 × 24 voters which gives 2,424. Similarly, for Jigawa, my sample should have 213 × 8 voters which gives 1,704. So Lagos data will have 2,424 voters while Jigawa data will have 1,704. Is this not comparable to the overall accredited data you just provided?

2. For states where the candidate won all the LGAs, bias will be minimised. It becomes complicated when attempting to sample PUs from states where the candidates shared LGA wins. Take for example Kaduna results:
PDP - 554,360 in 14 LGAs
APC - 399,293 in 2 LGAs
LP - 294,494 in 7 LGAs

That's why I intend selecting the LGAs based on Simple Random Sampling. That gives every LGAs equal chance of being selected. The beauty of Random Sampling is that it eliminates Selection Bias. The Central Limit Theorem in Statistics is the basis for Statistical Deductions from Sampling. I recommend you read that theorem.

Civetcat:
These guys mumu sha. It might also land you in prison . How did you come in contact with sensitive electoral materials? In fact , that result can be rendered invalid.

Your scaring tactics won't work. The result sheets of each polling units are usually pasted on the wall after the election results are announced. So what's the crime of simply taking a snapshot of that result pasted on the wall?

N3TRAL:
How do you distinguish a fake result from an original?

Its easy to determine which is fake if everyone participates and upload their results.

It's a recipe for unrest when a group of disgruntled elements usurp the powers of a specialized agency.

Obi failed 3 Saturdays ago. He didn't win.

There won't be unrest if there is transparency. And this is not about Obi, this is about all other elections going forward.

N3TRAL:
A waste of time.

It won't be admissible as evidence in a competent court.

Try the court of social media 😂

It's not about admissibility in Court. It's about transparency. It's about the truth. It's about demonstrating to INEC that electronic transmission of results is not a big deal.

aieromon:
Already doomed to be biased from the start point. Take Lagos for example, the turnout was 19% compared to Jigawa which had 42%.

You have 94% of the results on ireV. It might be time consuming but not impossible to tally.

I know you to be very versed so I will engage you.

Why do you think its biased? The sampling is based on those who voted and the results are on IREV. Even though Lagos had a lower turn out in terms of percentage however Lagos still have more voters in terms of numbers.

A group of tech savvy guys have developed a website where Nigerians can upload polling result sheet snapshots. This is one of the ways we can monitor the elections to make sure it's free and fair and transparent.

The website is https://www.collate.africa

This is something INEC had issues with. Let's show them that electronic transmission of results shouldn't be a big deal.

About Collate
Collate is a service that allows Nigerians to upload the results from their polling units and transparently share it with the world. It is billed to improve election transparency.

Collate was built in response to the failures of the Independent National Electoral Commission to upload results to the public by law during the Presidential elections.

It was built in a week by a team led by Oo Nwoye and Ozo Omosigho. You can read more on the inspiration here.

This has been covered by Vanguard, Arise TV, TechPoint, Tech City etc

Everyone is aware of the IREV disaster of the Presidential Election which has made people doubt the veracity of results uploaded on there. However, people still say that Tinubu did not even win if we were to add up all the results on IREV. I learnt someone even tried to do so but it was marred with controversies in of itself. The result he finally posted was almost Meaningless. So I decided to do some the collation myself. But because I'm doing it alone, I cannot download and collate over 160,000 polling unit results. That's almost impossible. What I would do is sampling which is a very scientific way to analyse results.

I intend to make sure the sampling gives every polling units equal chance of being selected. It would also take into cognisance, the various geopolitical zones. So that means I would use simple random sampling and also multistage sampling. Sample size would be calculated using an online sample size calculator. The confidence interval will be 95%, margin of error will be 5%. The Population Size would be the total number of Polling Unit Results that has been uploaded into IREV on the day I intend doing the collation and analysis (hopefully tomorrow). There are currently 166,468 results uploaded, that number might increase tomorrow. The proportion will be the percent of registered voters that participated in the election.

Polling Units will be selected from each of the States. The number for each States will be proportional to the number of polling units each States has so that States like Lagos will have the highest number of polling units in the Sample and FCT will have the least number. Multistage sampling will be done on the LGAs within the States and the Wards within the LGAs and the Polling Units within the Wards.

IREV will be the source data. The sampling list will also be on IREV. In a situation where a polling unit result is not clear or unusable, another simple random sampling will be done within the Ward to select another Polling Unit. This will continue until a usable Polling Unit Result is gotten from that Ward.

The collated result will be posted on here. The link to the Spreadsheet used for the analysis will also be provided here.

I decided to post this here so this my intended protocol will be critiqued. Posted this here to eliminate the possibility of bias.

Northernblood8:
Who is the Governorship Candidate of Labor party?

I honestly don't know but that Labour Party guy might win unless the APGA candidate campaigns vigorously and miracle smiles on him. PDP is not in this race. It's between Labour and APGA.

kingthreat:
You wallow in ignorance

So you honestly believe the perpetrators have been arrested? Have they been charged to court let alone convicted? What was the motive? Who are the sponsors?

Even the newspaper that published this news said the perpetrators are still at large. Here is the excerpt:

The PUNCH reports that 41 people lost their lives while many sustained various degrees of injuries in the deadly attack at St Francis Catholic Church. However, no arrest has been made after the incident.

I really hope you've not been deceived.

kingthreat:
Must you always talk crap? The killers have been arrested or your eye skip the news like you dodge news of IPOB killing their own?

You are deceived.

“As you know, we also have a lady whose two legs were amputated. The government has provided for her necessary prosthesis that she can use. I’m told that she has been able to use it. Her rehabilitation is moving on well, and we are sure that she will still live a normal life. That is what I believe, she will live a normal life. So, for us, it is just a way of remembering those 41 souls that died.”

No she won't live a normal life if the perpetrators are still living free. There is need for justice. Lots and lots of crime has been committed in this country and nothing has been done about arresting and prosecuting the perpetrators. We need justice in this country.

Obinoscopy:
This space is reserved for the actual winner.

And the winner is Buhariguy! He correctly predicted that Tinubu would win followed by Atiku and then Obi. He was aldo the closest in the points allocated to the 3 candidates. So the 100 dollars goes to Buhariguy.

So Buhariguy, DM me so we can discuss how you want to get the 100 dollars. You may DM Okoroawusa as well as he promised 20000 naira as well.

WhizdomXX:
I think I was the closest projection.

Hi, you were close but not as close as Buhariguy. So the price goes to him. But kudos, you were close.

The PDP has always been the traditional ruling party in Enugu State. But now it's no longer PDP. It's now a battle between Labour Party and APGA. But I think Labour will carry the day.

The guy's life has changed for the better...lol

This guy is different from the rest.

id911:
Obinoscopy, I don't know if this is allowed until I get authorization from higher authority before I can modify and post the full results. I was a Supervisor for LP in Lagos with 114 polling units/Agents under my care. APC won only 5 PUs marginally and LP won 109 PUs with a landslide. I was surprised because many APC supporters( I suppose) voted for LP in the presidential elections.

It became a mystery/miracle of some sort when I later saw what was announced by INEC. Nigeria isn't progressing at all.

Okay. But I urge you to convince them to allow you to post it here. You guys (I mean the Labour Party) cannot win this alone unless you carry the people along. Aisha Yesufu said the People will take their protests to the Courts but the people won't do so if they are not carried along. All we need are the State by State results for the four Political Parties so we can compare and contrast. We don't need to know the PU by PU results, you can reserve that for the Courts.

Sammy07:
You don't even know who obinoscopy is!

Yeah he doesn't. I'm Obidient but not a hard-core Obidient

fulaniHERDSman:
Only a senseless sheep will fall for this trap by the wolfish OP.

Which trap? I'm confused.

iyke648:
APC mole spotted. . All evidence will be presented to the court

I'm guessing you are anti-APC. If you are, then I will advise its best to carry the public along. Let us know the Situation Room results so we can compare and contrast. If you do it the way it has been done in the past where you don't carry the public along I don't think you guys will get any justice.

Wiseandtrue:
Are you the court

The matter is there already. You take the ones you have there!!!

The matter is not yet in Court. It will be but not yet.

I dont know NNPP claim but perhaps they are contesting results in the North West.








This Space is for NNPP Collation Centre.

LP claimed they got over a million in Plateau








This Space is for LP Collation Centre

This Space is for PDP Collation Centre.








P.S: I heard PDP said LP got over 900,000 votes in Lagos

The Presidential Elections has come and gone. Tinubu has been declared winner. He is our Presisent-elect.

However there has been several allegations from LP, PDP and NNPP of fraud at the Collation Centres. I am however confused as all three parties claim their principal won. That's not possible. Only one candidate can win in an election. It's either Tinubu or Atiku or Obi or Kwankwaso. They cannot all win. So someone or some people must be lying.

I have a solution however. Is it possible for anyone who has access to the various Party's Situation Room to post the results (on a State by State basis) so we can all compare and contrast? I'm sure APC will agree with INEC result so I guess this message is for PDP, LP and NNPP Situation Rooms.

Any nairalander who has access to the any Political Party’s Situation Room is welcomed to post the results here so we Nigerians can compare and contrast and decide who is lying.

We need to clarify this confusion otherwise I'll be tempted to just go with INEC's result.

Obinoscopy:
As a follow up to my previous thread, this thread is dedicated to the possible permutations for Senate Presidency IF Tinubu wins (and that's a big "if"). Tinubu is from the South West while his vice is from North East. Also both of them are Muslims. Thus the Senate Presidency has to come from either the South East or South South and has to be a Christian.

In the South East, the major contender is Orji Uzor Kalu (Abia North). Even though he did not support Tinubu during the APC primaries, he has been very vocal in his support for Tinubu. So I wouldn't be surprised if Tinubu would lobby for Orji Uzor Kalu to become the Senate President. Also I believe Kalu is a Christian and he a majority leader (Chief Whip) in the Senate, these are his strong points. However Kalu has to win his re-election into the Senate first. He has a major challenger from PDP, Mao Ohaobunwa. So I guess, Kalu's focus should be to win the Senate election first. He defeated Ohaobunwa in the last election, perhaps he can do it again. Another possible stumbling block to Kalu is Osita B. Izunaso (APC, Imo West). That Izunaso guy is an underdog who should not be overlooked. He was the one who singlehandedly retired Arthur Nzeribe from the Senate, so he could pose a stumbling block to Kalu's bid if he is also interested in being the 2023 Senate President.

In the South South, I'm going for Peter Nwaoboshi (Delta North). He is a 2 term senator and is a Christian as well. However he has to win Ned Nwoko of the PDP first before his dream of becoming a Senate President can be realised. Another contender, albeit a lightweight one, is Biobarakuma Degi (Bayelsa East).

For the Speaker House of Representative, I would say either North Central or North West gets it, but I’m tilting towards North West because they will likely priduce more APC seats than the North Central. But the permutations on who would likely be a strong contender is very complex and beyond my scope.

So, in conclusion, I'll say the major contenders for the Senate Presidency IF Tinubu wins are Orji Uzor Kalu, Osita Izunaso and Peter Nwaboshi.

Modification: I was also made to be aware that Godswill Akpabio (APC, Akwa Ibom North West) is another strong contender. I know he has some legal hurdles to surmount. If that's solved, I'll say he also is a strong contender alongside Orji Uzor Kalu.

Now that Tinubu has been declared winner, my permutation would be that the contest for Senate Presidency will be between Orji Uzor Kalu and Godswill Akpabio. However do not underrate Osita Izunaso, he is the underdog.

naptu2:
How did Jarus do?

(He made an updated forecast on the 23rd of February and you can see it here: https://twitter.com/SirJarus/status/1628878420993101829).

I'd say he did great based on the results we are seeing with INEC.

This looks fake. Doesn't sound like Obasanjo.

You are interpreting the laws wrongly. All what the law is saying is that FCT should be counted among the 36 States when calculating 25%. So that means one must get 25 States (assuming FCT is considered a State). Which can be 24 Real States and then FCT. Or just 25 Real States without even winning FCT.

It is obvious INEC never addressed my concerns. And I'm beginning to think INEC did it intentionally and systematically.

Let's wait and see. I don't see Tinubu winning. The "structureless" party is really showing lots of structured votes.

Hmmmm, jungle is maturing