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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 7:35pm On May 12, 2025

HesInMe:
Respectfully, if you want a safe space for your personal decisions, maybe don't post them on a public forum with 3 million users.

Now quit with the emotions. We're debating the stock; we're not analyzing his babe. What is the book value of Ellah?

Ellah Lakes is undoubtedly an old company, but their venture into farming is a recent development. As far as I know, all startups burn through cash—sometimes for years. Yes, it’s a high-risk move, but given the current value of the agricultural sector, failure would be quite difficult. They've acquired land—that’s a fact. They've raised some capital—also a fact. They have palm seedlings worth over 700 million naira. How many palm trees would that translate to? They also have a strong team. You want to see revenue first? That’s fine—you can wait. But some people believe that by the time the kind of revenue you’re waiting for begins to show, the share price may have already multiplied. That’s why they’re buying in at this early stage. Isn’t that a reasonable approach?

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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 7:19pm On May 12, 2025

HesInMe:
Respectfully, if you want a safe space for your personal decisions, maybe don't post them on a public forum with 3 million users.

Now quit with the emotions. We're debating the stock; we're not analyzing his babe. What is the book value of Ellah?

Is the book value not included in the recent financials? Alright, since you’re asking, it’s approximately 20.8 billion naira. Now, what else do you need?

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 11:36am On May 12, 2025

Mankind2024:
Madam, are you an agent of a stockbroker firm that visited Ellah Lake farm for an on-ground appraisal and assessment of Ellah Lake's work in progress?
When does objective criticism of a quoted company that is underperforming become badmouthing?
If you are one of their agents, please pass our message to the management of Ellah Lake: we are unhappy with their statement due to its lack of transparency. They can do better.

@Mankind2024, they do hold AGMs, right? Have you attended one before? I believe you’ll find the answers to your questions at such an event.

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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 11:07am On May 12, 2025

yMcy56:
NAHCO also marked down for N5.94 dividend today.
Payment date: 23rd May

Madam, which other you think fit do like Oando?

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 8:48am On May 12, 2025

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 5:38pm On May 04, 2025

Agbalowomeri:
Anybody wey block me I go carry stock picks come meet am for dream

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 5:31pm On May 04, 2025

emmanuelewumi:
How can I do that?

Go to the person's profile page and select 'Block this user.' Don’t forget to block me—it doesn’t matter to me. I no send anybody. Lol.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 5:27pm On May 04, 2025

Agbalowomeri:
Omo na you be scientist so na you rocket go find come

Guy, no be you dey do what if analysis, make I follow u do small nah, no vex.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 5:24pm On May 04, 2025

crownprince2017:
If you are serious with your investing, you will surely find a way to get this information without noise.

When we do our findings, we didn't get the information from here.

Nobody is forcing you to buy ellahlakes, if you can't get the information that make u feel safe then don't invest, it's as simple as that.. everyone can't be loco who hawk stocks up an down.

If you gain will you share it with me, so why must someone here be the one to furnish you with information to make u money, isn't that sound crazy..

You must be a joker...

One street once said the company doesn't exist but one company CEO is paying him with shares while he lavishis the money.

Street getting served street...wahala...

Some people are looking for the addresses of farms owned by a publicly traded company. Lol, isn’t the address public? Don’t they hold AGMs like everyone else? Have they ever attended one? They keep asking for the location—okay, we’ll tell them when the time is right.

grin

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 5:05pm On May 04, 2025

Agbalowomeri:
You do understand that commodities move in cycles? What if by the time ELLA is ripe, the global palm oil market is in the bears?

Too many 'what ifs'—what if a rocket bound for Lebanon misses its target and falls on your head? undecided

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 11:42am On May 04, 2025

starpower:
probably 450 range, the international price kpo is reducing as oil price since quite a lot is used in bio fuel which will affect it demand. Price reduced most times in 3rd quarter then volume in storage very low, rubber price seems to be increasing internationally so could be wrong on my assumptions.

Can you kindly provide evidence that biofuel applications account for more than 10% of global palm oil usage?

Sectoral Breakdown and Disruption Effects

1. Food Sector (65–70%)

Who uses it: FMCGs like Nestlé, Unilever, PepsiCo; bakeries, cooking oil processors.

Disruption impact:

High sensitivity: A major disruption (e.g., food processing recession or anti-palm oil regulations in the EU) significantly affects prices.

Sustainability backlash could shift demand to alternatives (sunflower/soybean oil), pressuring margins.

2. Industrial/Non-Food (20–25%)

Who uses it: Soap and detergent manufacturers, candle makers, lubricant producers.

Disruption impact:

Moderate impact: This demand is stable, especially in emerging markets like Africa and South Asia. Recessions here affect purchasing power but not dramatically.

Upside: New natural product trends can increase demand.

3. Biofuels (5–10%)

Who uses it: EU, Indonesia, Malaysia—use in biodiesel blending.

Disruption impact:

Volatile: Policy-driven (e.g., EU Green Deal phase-out of palm-based biodiesel by 2030).

High impact per unit: Though small in volume, the biodiesel sector consumes cheap, crude palm oil, helping clear surplus and supporting price floors.

4. Pharmaceuticals/Cosmetics (≤5%)

Who uses it: Multinationals and niche pharma firms.

Disruption impact:

Low volume, high margin: Disruption here has minor volume effect but may reduce value-added sales.

Price-insensitive: Products are premium and continue even during recessions.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 9:36am On May 04, 2025

emmaodet:
I get your point clearly.
Well, that is why I recommend portfolio management of 1:1 or 2:1 because even though naira investment on average lose real value to the dollar on the long run, we can't afford to ignore alot of juice we can also squeeze out from ngx.

This is purely academic and meant to unmask the devastating effects of devaluation—even though it is hard to see, as it often creeps in very slowly. I’m making this point because, despite everything, these companies still provide value to employees whose families depend on them.

Now, having said that, let's look at GTCO. In Q1 2025, GTCO posted a PAT of 258 billion Naira—very impressive, right? But in dollar terms, that's about 161 million dollars. Now let's rewind to 2014: their Q1 PAT was 23 billion Naira, which was equivalent to 117 million dollars at the time.

So, over 11 years, GTCO's real profit in dollar terms grew by only 37%, while in Naira terms, it shot up by over 1000%. An untrained observer looking only at the Naira figures might be amazed by such apparent growth. But in reality, if GTCO had sold all its assets and invested the 2014 profit in U.S. Treasury bonds at just 4% annually, the returns would have surpassed this growth with minimal risk.

Now, PRESCO really impressed me. In Q1 2014, its PAT was just 400 thousand Naira. Fast forward to 2025, and the PAT is over 47 billion Naira. In real terms, that’s a staggering 138% compounded annual growth. This reminds me of the potential in Ellah Lakes. Some so-called experts are bashing the stock, calling it "dogoyaro." Time will tell.

As for me, I only know simple math. And as they say, numbers don’t lie.

5 Likes 3 Shares

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 6:27am On May 04, 2025

emmaodet:
In 2014, #2m was $10k @ $1 = #197
If you had invested the 2m in ngx stocks at an average rate of 30% per annum returns (plus dividends and bonuses), that money would be #27.2m in 2024
That #2m will be #40.2m @ 35% average returns in 10 years
The same $10k dollars would have been #32.5m in 2024 @ 7% rate per annum in dollar fund @1,650 per dollar
A 50/50 exposure of your portfolio to naira/dollars investment would have returned between #30m - #36m in that same period.
The basic thing is that a return of minimum 30% per annum on your investment in naira investment will just do fine and a blend of both to be conservative.

This is not what I asked. I'm looking at companies' profit growth. What I'm telling you is that, despite some of these companies reporting massive increases in profit, when you adjust those figures to the dollar value of their respective periods, you’ll realize they actually made less real profit.

Let me explain: suppose a Nigerian company made ₦1,000,000 in profit after tax in 2014. At the 2014 exchange rate of ₦197 per dollar, that equates to $5,076. Now, let's say the company has grown its profit by 20% annually (CAGR). By 2025, that would amount to about ₦7,430,000 in profit. Converted at the current exchange rate of ₦1,600 per dollar, that gives you roughly $4,644. So, although the profit in naira terms has increased significantly over the last 10 years, the real value in dollars has actually decreased.

Only companies with a compounded annual growth rate above 22% since then would have experienced real profit growth in dollar terms. But how many companies fall into that category?

So, my point again is that outsized returns aren’t the whole story. We also need to look at real return when compared with stable economies. Going back to your calculation—a foreign investor whose Nigerian portfolio didn’t grow more than 8x from 2014 to date has effectively lost money. Don’t point to the few companies that achieved 20x to 30x returns in share value; we also have many that didn’t. A 2014 investor would have needed to be extremely lucky to pick only the top performers.

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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 2:01pm On May 02, 2025

Agbalowomeri:
You are looking at it from the street perspective
I am looking at it from an NGX trading/investing perspective
Whatever the street value of the profit is, some of these companies will deliver over 100% upside in price
It means you can easily double your money, irrespective of dollar or naira value; at least let's hope the naira value remains stable for this year

The two perspectives are complementary. You have to get both the entry and exit right—which means someone has to be willing to buy your stock when you're done, at the right price. Do you think foreign investors aren't seeing what I'm seeing?

For example, despite all the noise, only SCOA and Chellarams have delivered over 100% year-on-year returns so far, based on Yochaa metrics—unless you're a master of timing

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 11:53am On May 02, 2025

Xidget:
NASCON is married to a toxic DANGSUGAR that has refused to allow it progress

The impending merger is a double-edged sword nah—imagine combining the good with the bad, especially when the bad outweighs the good. Let Dangote cancel any future merger plans and watch how NASCON responds. cheesy

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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 11:25am On May 02, 2025

GeneralDae:
This is BUA foods for example. Convert to dollar yourself using 1550 and 750.

For 450, it would be a slight loss. (So I correct my earlier assertion (if we are to use Q1 2023)).

Q1 2023 profit after tax 40.4 Billion naira.

Q1 2025 profit after tax. 125.8 Billion naira

Did you even read my post? I clearly stated ‘pre-Tinubu and Buhari.’ The naira and the overall economy were much healthier before the APC came into power. The numbers don’t lie.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 11:19am On May 02, 2025

RodgersAkpafu:
If not for thr FX exposure and losses on their balance sheets I would have differed from this position of yours
But these elements are difficult to ignore
So indeed, you do have a point

My understanding is that most consumer goods companies sell nearly 100% of their products within Nigeria. This is quite different from countries like China, which deliberately devalue their currency to boost exports and earn foreign exchange. A few companies—like PRESCO and others—are benefiting from this situation because they export and the weak naira makes them more competitive internationally. Maybe cement producers too. But for the rest, it seems like they’re just quoting big numbers without real value behind them.

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 11:08am On May 02, 2025

GeneralDae:
Some are still better in dollar terms. I may be wrong but I even did for Cadbury compared to Q4 2022 and it was thesame in value. The likes of BUA foods have surpassed what they were in 2022 even in dollar terms which means they are now making real profits.
Note : I used the old official rate of 450. If I use 750, then a good number of them have made real profit in Q1 2025.

I want to see the actual figures and workings—not politically motivated defenses.

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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 10:37am On May 02, 2025

Most of the revenue/profit growth you folks are celebrating—I've read how Agba is praising the heavy returns in the consumer sector—I have just one question: Have you converted those returns to dollars and compared them with previous years’ returns using the exchange rates of those times? Which one do you think is better?

To me, it looks like we're seeing more money that’s worth much less.

And before anyone launches an attack saying “we spend in naira,” let me ask: how many made-in-Nigeria items do you actually own, aside from a few consumables?

It’s actually quite funny. Someone who used to earn ₦20 million a year before the Tinubu and Buhari administrations could afford a decent car and still live comfortably. Today, that same ₦20 million might only buy a car—if your taste isn’t even that high.

So, Brother EmmaOdet, while you’re sharing all this profitability news, please do us a favour: convert the figures to dollars—using the old rate (below ₦700) and the current rate (around ₦1,600)—so we can make a more meaningful comparison.

Thank you.

undecided

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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 12:33pm On Apr 29, 2025

ositadima1:
From a TA perspective (Not shown here for proprietary reasons ) and based on probabilistic analysis of past performance, Champion appears to be a good bet. If you can acquire it below 4—or ideally much below 4—there is an 18% chance of a 50% upward move, compared to a 19% chance of a 20% downward move over the next three months. In conclusion, it is likely to move upward.

A Street investor said my technical analysis is like Agba's—it doesn't work. MCY56 minus 1, on the other hand, told me to let the gurus speak first.

Despite all these jabs, I persevered. Is Champion finally going to answer my call or what?

undecided

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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 11:51am On Apr 28, 2025

yMcy56:
NASCON
CP don market his stock..... 😁
The bids there though!
** NASCON is one of CP's pointer this year...... The bedsheet don't lie .. . .
Mr. Common Sense also put mouth .... 😊

If Sugar should mistakingly release improved result, Salt go fly

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 11:23am On Apr 28, 2025

Agbalowomeri:
So Nigerians are still drinking in this economy

No, I don't think so. The price hike has more than compensated for the reduction in consumption, and they are now selling with a higher profit margin.

Previously, selling 1,000 bottles of Hero at ₦300 per bottle would have generated ₦300,000. Now, even with a 50% reduction in consumption, selling at the current ₦1,000 per bottle would generate ₦500,000.

Plus, the profit per bottle has likely increased. For instance, retailers were previously satisfied making ₦300 to ₦500 profit per crate; today, they are probably making over ₦1,000 per crate to maintain the same profit levels, largely due to the massive devaluation of the naira.

It’s just common sense, if you ask me.

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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 1:44pm On Apr 13, 2025*

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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 1:13pm On Apr 13, 2025*

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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 1:00pm On Apr 13, 2025

emmaodet:
You are the one who lead me to Claudia, now you have switched to Gemini?
I really love Claudia though

The free version of Claude is very good, but it has the shortest question limit. Gemini, on the other hand, is almost unlimited. They're all good—ChatGPT and Grok included. DeepSeek thinks a lot; sometimes it exceeds its quota just trying to figure things out, without even answering the question. As for Meta, the last time I used it, it was the least accurate, so I haven’t bothered with it since.

They’ve all come a long way. There was this really tough probability question I struggled with a few years ago—it took me weeks to solve. I started using that question as a benchmark to test these AIs. For a long time, none of them could give the correct answer. Then DeepSeek finally solved it—and I was like, damn, it found a completely different way to crack it. After that, when the other AIs began implementing reasoning functions, they also started solving it. I'm still not sure if Meta can handle it even now.

I've seen huge progress across the board, even at work, thanks to AI. People who really know... know.

10 Likes 3 Shares

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 11:18am On Apr 13, 2025

Hadebiimiipee:
Good morning everyone, happy Sunday.

Please as a newbie to the stock market, can anyone kindly recommend books, or any other guides I can go through to understand the stock market more.

Thank you.

The book Why Stocks Go Up and Down.
This book won’t teach you how to trade or use specific trading platforms, but it provides a simplified and clear overview of how the stock market works.

Once you’ve gone through it, you can ask your questions on Gemini — it’s great at helping you understand concepts — or feel free to bring your questions here.

The links here:

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://blog.alltick.co/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Why-Stocks-Go-Up-and-Down-4E-William-H.-Pike-CFA-Patrick-C.-Gregory-CFA.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwiy2K214dSMAxVGaUEAHRlhFmYQFnoECAwQAQ&usg=AOvVaw0xA3FIU3rTs6kjog4WsiyT

And Gemini:
https://gemini.google.com/

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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 10:47am On Apr 12, 2025

Mpeace:
I think Trump just found out he can't fight every one at the same time. So he postponed the fight with the rest for 90days.
He is fighting china now, once he is done with china, he would face EU.

Asia and africa don't so much matter.
Saudi, Qatar, etc will not even listen to him. Those pple are just on their own.
Africa na carry go. America owns most african leaders.

Trump is trying to save face now. He thought China would have started begging by this point—but that hasn’t happened—so now it’s more about damage control. About 30% of the world’s goods come from China, and as of today, China has more manufacturing capacity than the U.S. It’s not a very clever move to start a trade war with them unless you already have capacity that’s equal or better. You need to start producing several things locally, and that kind of shift doesn't happen overnight—it takes time to build up.

It’s similar to what Tinubu did with the fuel subsidy—good intention, but rushed at a time when there was no local capacity. The move had potential but was poorly executed.

Anyway, like Nigeria, the U.S. is also dealing with mounting debt, and Trump might have gone down this path simply because there were no better alternatives. Still, if you ask me, it wasn’t well executed. Now, American citizens will have to bear the inflation that follows.

China will feel some pain too. They have a lot of production capacity that won’t be fully utilized for a while. But to be clear, China contributes significantly to global trade—from chemicals to machine parts to industrial equipment—all at unbeatable prices. The U.S. will either have to pay more for these goods in the meantime or learn to do without them.

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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 9:10am On Apr 12, 2025

PuristForest:
Lol...all rise because judge o has entered..... is this a court session? Listen, i don't make accusations, i state facts and i provide the receipts. you can get on board or check our social media pages the receipts are all there....

What iare ur social media handles?

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 8:39am On Apr 12, 2025

PuristForest:
very funny...i pushed oando from 52 to 37....and recommended dangsugar at 32-33 on apr4 https://www.nairaland.com/1131485/nigerian-stock-exchange-market-pick/8907#134842678 ....and thats a dead business right...how many have your recommended and cashed out?...i just hope you don't take this mentality and try to trade forex or futures because you'll get wrecked...just stay on ngx, its still a little forgiving over time.

You made a lot of accusations in your previous posts. How do you conclude that Street strategy is obsolete and doesn’t make money? How can we be sure your Oando prediction wasn’t just a fluke that happened to go your way? You talk about your subscribers — can you provide a 4 to 5-year history of your trades, or at least an equity curve? As some clever people say, seeing is believing. Alternatively, we could track all your calls on this thread, along with their implied time frames (because without a time frame, anyone can claim anything), and compute whether you have a positive expectancy — but then again, who has that kind of time?

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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 8:31am On Apr 12, 2025

Streetinvestor2:
The people who subscribe to your service are your greatest mugu...simple. And I can never make decision based on you guys call.The emotion part na joke.For your what ever wave of seeing what is happening na balablu. I hope your wave has equally seen what next trump action will be.Yeye dey smell.... .called professionals.
I only quote you post to warn those new into the business here.Many may not know about monkey hunting disguised as professional TA..lol
You hide under TA and recommend dead businesses here because you just want 10% gain to cash out.It is not well with the wicked

Lol, people do technical analysis and make money. People do whatever it is you do, and they make money too. Personally though, this wave-based TA feels like a story told under the moonlight.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 7:23pm On Apr 09, 2025

zendi:
True, thanks to America's past liberal leaderships that created that coupling in the first place, aided China's rise including the migration of American industry to China, and failed to start early doing what Trump is doing now.

By the way, trade is the exchange of value—you need what I have, and I need what you have. Everyone goes home happy. But if you grow to like what I offer so much that you end up depending on me for most of your needs, whose fault is that?

You're paying, and the other party is providing value. Your money isn’t a gift; you're exchanging it for something useful. Yet, some people act like they're doing others a favor by buying goods and services that they themselves will consume. (you inclusive) That’s a terrible way of thinking.

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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 7:15pm On Apr 09, 2025

zendi:
True, thanks to America's past liberal leaderships that created the coupling in the first place, aided China's rise including the migration of American industry to China, and failed to start early doing what Trump is now doing.

China's trade surplus against America in 2024 alone was $300b. So you can see that the Chinese strength you describe was actually funded by America through the buffoonery of past liberal, leftist "globalist" leaders. And while they were at this lunacy, America's national debt was ballooning to today's $40 trillion. Which means that country, defeated from within by liberal lunacies, has been borrowing to borrowing to fund or subsidize China's rise.

In a recent post, Osita, you implied that America has been printing dollar at will to enjoy cheap imports. This would be Idi Amin type of economic policy. If not, why have they not been printing to reduce this insane $40 trillion debt, owed mostly to China, Japan and internally?

Past American leaders had been building a house of cards, bound to collapse one day.
Then enter Donald Trump, a die hard American patriot and builder, and he is trying to convert it to house of concrete, if not too late.

The reality is that America did nothing for China—China took matters into its own hands and repositioned the country over the past 15 to 20 years. They started with cheap knockoffs and numerous one-man export businesses. Then they began innovating, producing high-quality goods at very low prices.

In contrast, the American system is built around the 'American Dream,' high wages, and excessive consumption, which makes domestic production significantly more expensive—hence the reliance on outsourcing.

I don’t think these things can be forced. America needs to restructure its system, reduce wages and wastage to stay competitive. It's not easy, and it will take time. Trump is trying to forcibly bend a tree that has already grown.

China is now advancing in microchips, biotech, AI, precision machining, and more—offering all at very competitive prices. Their schools are becoming as cutting-edge as those in the U.S.

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