₦airaland Forum

favor914:
Make highestpopori, & penguin2 dey deceive themselves.

So you’re rejoicing on the idea that Tinubu will not conduct a free and election?

You are confirming that Tinubu is unpopular and only depending on rigging to retain power?

DoTheNeedful:
@Penguin2


The chances of the top three candidates as stated here are overly optimistic for Obi.

That said, it seems that many of analysts on social media have failed to read between the lines of the 2023 election results. There has been so much emphasis on who wins a state as if we are practicing America's electoral college system. Winning a state is not the ultimate goal. Tinubu lost Lagos in 2023, but his highest votes of any state was what he got in Lagos. Lagos contributed more to his victory than Ekiti or Rivers where he won.

One thing I observed in the last election is the possibility of a candidate winning 7-9 states and still ending up winning the election. The fact that Tinubu will finish first or second in almost every state gives him an edge in the coming election. Any analytical mind would get my drift.

Anyway, we are just 99 days to the election. The moment of truth is coming fast to everyone, regardless of who we support. We will all learn together.

I quite understand you but that strategy of Tinubu coming second where he loses might not work for him this time around.

Because he will be coming distant second or third in most states outside Southwest.

aswani:
Till today, Obidients are complaining about Wike giving Rivers to President Tinubu. I believe this scenario, both the governors handing states to President Tinubu and the subsequent Obidient complaining, will happen.

Makinde being APM doesn't mean Oyo State is, the state voted APC in 2023 despite him being in PDP.

You yourself must have laughed out loud projecting Lagos state for Peter Obi. Nothing wrong with optimism but that has trickled over into pure folly.

Peter Obi, as NDC is not winning any state outside Aligbo, even Kano that I generously gave his party is touch and go

The way you said, “Makinde was in PDP in 2023 but Oyo still voted Tinubu” as if you have forgotten Makinde’s involvement with the G5 all of a sudden.

One thing with you guys is that you like to lie to yourselves a lot. Always disregarding facts to bank on clear braggadocio and manipulation.

Hedonisco:
The only state in this list that Tinubu can manage to win outright without INEC manipulation is Ogun State.

And I use 'INEC manipulation' intentionally rather than rigging because that is the only form of rigging that can work for the immensely hated and despised Tinubu. Vote buying, thuggery, voter intimidation and other forms of malpractice will simply not be enough to deliver victory to him.

It has to be direct manipulation of votes /writing of results right from inside INEC. So Nigerians need to know exactly where to direct their fury.

True!

But unfortunately Tinubu supporters like to lie themselves a lot.

Mynd44:
You don't know how delusional elections make people until you find out Lawyers that went to Law school went in front of the the supreme court to argue that because someone didn't get 25% of votes in Abuja, he must not be sworn in as president.

Was it a constitutional provision or not?

Don’t worry, Obi is winning the 2027 presidential election.

softtorce:
Even qithout sharing miney nothing in the world n beyond can make Peter Obi have 20% of the total vote cast in Kano yet this deluded joker said he will win. How now. Obi will be 3rd in Kano even with Kwankwaso as his vice.

Are you ready to wager on this?

aswani:
Your projections totally defy logic as both Obidients and now Peter Obi have damaged their brand

APC
1) Lagos
2) Oyo
3) Delta
4) Rivers
5) Benue
6) Kaduna
7) Katsina
Bauchi
9) Ogun

ADC
1) Kano

I’m sure you started laughing at yourself after typing this. Lol

What do you have on ground that suggests to that Tinubu will win Rivers, Delta, Kaduna, Katsina, Bauchi and Oyo?

And isn’t it ironic that you lots believe so much that APC governors will deliver their states for Tinubu but somehow you don’t believe that Makinde will deliver Oyo to himself?

Maybe only their supporters who have submitted their brains to them are expecting lower transport fares.

No reasonable person still takes anything from Tinubu and APC seriously.

Earlier today, while speaking to the press, the INEC chairman, Joash Amupitan, announced the top 10 states with the highest number of registered voters at the conclusion of CVR exercise. The chairman announced the states to include:
1) Lagos
2) Kano
3) Kaduna
4) Katsina
5) Rivers
6) Oyo
7) Delta
8} Benue
9) Ogun
10) Bauchi.

What the data above suggests is that any candidate who is serious about winning the next election must pay serious attention to these states.

Now, let’s examine the strengths of the top 3 candidates and their realistic chances in each of these states.

Peter Obi
1) Lagos
2) Kano
3) Delta
4) Rivers
5) Benue

Atiku Abubakar
1) Kaduna
2) Katsina
3) Bauchi

Bola Tinubu
1) Ogun

Seyi Makinde
1) Oyo

The projections above, as put forward by the person I attached his post here, I believe, is informed by 2023 data and current reality and atmosphere on ground; ceteris paribus.

What could change?

The only thing I see changing here is Tinubu succeeding to win Lagos and retaining Benue. But in both cases Peter Obi will come close second.

But in states where Obi is sure of winning like Kano, Rivers and Delta, Tinubu will not come close second.

Meanwhile, I don’t see any candidate other than Atiku flipping Kaduna, Katsina and Bauchi.

And lastly. even if Makinde doesn’t win any other state, only a political neophyte who likes to lie to himself will doubt that Makinde will win Oyo.
https://x.com/naughti_awol/status/2107459259474608151?s=46

That reminds me, Gov Nwifuru laid the foundation for the project and has brought it to this level.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iidh6am-IAc?si=G2CU-VgEFlNGRvau

The governor of Ebonyi State has been in the eye of the storm in recent weeks as netizens beamed searchlight on his performance as Ebonyi governor in the past 3 years.

Most prominent of those was Cubana Chief Priest who criticized both his performance and his dress sense. Lol!

However, I stumbled on this video of the ICT University he’s building and I think it is actually worth commending as construction has actually gone far.

It is touted that when completed, the University will offer courses in Aeronautics, Aerospace, Robotics and other STEM fields; a complete departure from the type of programs offered by some universities in Nigeria today where graduates go to study courses that have no practical application to current day realities.

The university is located in Offerekpe (the governor’s village), Izzi Local Government, Ebonyi State.

I’m doing this in keeping with my principle to not let partisanship get in my of recognizing progress where there is one.

Nlfpmod
Mynd44
Fergie001

helinues:
How did Peter Obi make his money, which year did he become Chairman of Fidelity bank, when did he open the Next UK? Which business was he doing before the bank chairman and the extension of Next super market

He stole your money when you were still a foetus.

Go and arrest him.

Kukutente23:
We had Buhari who wouldn't steal but those around him robbed us blind

Integrity is not transferable

Besides, same Buhari ended up clueless and worse than "corrupt" Jonathan

Fair argument about Buhari.

But the difference is the intention to hold your appointees to account.

And when we talk about Obi, it’s because he has done it before. That’s why we believe he can do it again.

Has the ADC Vice Presidential candidate turned a Peter Obi campaigner?

Well, they all know who the best candidate is.

If Peter Obi becomes president, he won't steal and people in his cabinet won't steal. The president's body language matters, even though I don't support him

__ Rotimi Amaechi

They all know the truth that Obi is the best man for the job.

If Peter Obi becomes president, he won't steal and people in his cabinet won't steal. The president's body language matters, even though I don't support him

__ Rotimi Amaechi

They all know the truth that Obi is the best man for the job. pic.twitter.com/Lgbj0JbFM8

— David Umoke (@Naughti_awol) October 2, 2026

Nlfpmod
Mynd44
Fergie001

The world knows that Tinubu is unpopular but only banking on divisions to get back to power.

That Nigeria’s unpopular president is not quaking in his suede loafers ahead of the next election says less about him and more about the country’s complicated electoral dynamics

Source

Nigerians Dislike Their President, But May Re-Elect Him Anyway

With just over three months to go until Nigerians vote for a president, the incumbent does not look particularly worried about his re-election prospects. On September 29th Bola Tinubu (pictured), who expects to win a second term in January, returned from Paris after a month-long stay in Europe. He had previously extended his “working holiday” by several days, raising eyebrows at home.

On the face of it, Mr Tinubu’s cool is surprising. Nigeria is suffering a worsening security crisis, with people kidnapped and killed by bandits or insurgents on a near-daily basis. His economic reforms, though lauded by investors, have yet to make life better for most of the country’s 240m people. Add to that political challengers who are more popular than him, especially in the northern states worst affected by violence and economic deprivation, and the president should be quaking in his suede loafers. That he is not says less about him and more about Nigeria’s complicated electoral dynamics.

https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2026/10/01/nigerians-dislike-their-president-but-may-re-elect-him-anyway?taid=6abeb010a7b7100001e74346&utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

APC campaigners and supporters were asked to buy a helmet but they thought it was a joke.

This is the Abuja that Wike is boasting he will win.

Youths are fighting the APC organizers at an Independence Festival because they came to turn a celebration into a Tinubu campaign. Is it by force to campaign for Tinubu in Abuja? This is beyond embarrassing. People came to celebrate Nigeria, not attend a political rally.

APC turning an Independence Festival into a campaign rally is honestly embarrassing. People came to Monoliza to celebrate and have fun, not to be dragged into partisan politics. Read the room. Not every public gathering needs to become a campaign ground.

Youths are fighting the APC organizers at an Independence Festival because they came to turn a celebration into a Tinubu campaign. Is it by force to campaign for Tinubu in Abuja? This is beyond embarrassing. People came to celebrate Nigeria, not attend a political rally. https://t.co/PMhfKgVuJ4 pic.twitter.com/9eHUJzqWY3

— Uncle Fahad (@unclefahad_) October 1, 2026

seunmsg:
Obi will not get 25% in Kaduna, Zamfara, Taraba and Adamawa.

With all the rigging of 2023, Obi got over 100k votes in both Taraba and Adamawa.

Imagine now that he has booths on ground to protect his votes, added to the abysmal performance of Tinubu.

Akpakomiza2:
Did he win Kano? If it is domain, what of kwankwaso? Tinubu also got over 500k in Lagos?

I’m not disputing that he got over 500k votes in Lagos too. But after Lagos, Kano is the next place he saw that much volume of votes.

Now, Obi is going to inherit Kwankwaso’s over 900k votes which is enough to cancel all the votes Tinubu will get in SE and SS.

So, you see, Peter Obi has made the most inroads into untraditional territories of the 3.

Let’s not even talk about Atiku that has been confined to Northeast and Northwest.

seunmsg:
As unrealistic as this projection is, you still don't have the 25 states required for an outright win.

Unrealistic?

Tell me which state I mentioned is unrealistic.

AMINDA:
Are you insinuating that Obi is lying to Nigerians in order to get their votes and has no intention in bringing back subsidy?

You’re free to draw your own inferences.

Akpakomiza2:
Obi hasn't made any inroad apart from Kano which isn't Tinubu's domain

Tinubu got over 500k votes from Kano in 2023 and you say it’s not his domain?

Which other state gave him more in Nigeria as a whole?

AMINDA:
Well, from a strategic point of view, it makes sense to tell the rural supporters that it is Kwankwaso who is on the ballot. Heads or tail, Obi benefits.

You shouldn’t have bothered explaining anything to them let rejoice in their ignorance.

Wait for Tinubu supporters to come and defend this Wike and Sons criminal enterprise.

AMINDA:
The devil is in the details. It will all become clear after 2027. By the way, O I has made a u-turn today in Sokoto and now says he will return subsidy. What say you?

Atiku knows he will not return subsidy but said it anyways just to attract votes.

So, yeah, Obi had to tell your people what they want to hear.

Fair!

Akpakomiza2:
To what end

To the end that whatever inroads Tinubu is celebrating to have made into Obi’s traditional voting bloc, Obi has made inroads elsewhere to balance and even surpass it.

Akpakomiza2:
Obi won't win Kano by more than 200k votes since kwankwaso won by 400k

Whether he wins it by just one vote or even loses it, you agree that the votes he will garner will cancel out the votes that Tinubu will get in Southeast and Southsouth, abi?

slivertongue:
That is sure but spread is very imp

The spread is achievable too.

11 states of Southeast and Southsouth .

Lagos in Southwest.

Plateau, Benue, Nasawara and FCT in North Central.

Kano, Kaduna, Zamfara in Northwest

Taraba, Adamawa in Northeast.

Spread is possible.

yarimo:
The same Kano state that NDC ran away from participating in last week house of assembly by election?

Shebi una don win am?

Ngwanu tell your people to allow free and fair elections make we check the popularity.

Reference:
When that 12 years or 8 years you talk about comes around, another reason why the south easterners are 'unfit' will arise again.

Then his likes will join a long line of victims from the late Alex Ekwueme to the ultra liberal, ultra cosmopolitan Rochas Okorocha who was told he did not 'do enough' to warrant widespread acceptance from the 'owners of Nigeria'.

No south easterners will ever do enough unfortunately.

This thing has been a recurring theme since the civil war across both civilian and military regimes. Nigeria has refused to move on.

My point exactly!

A wise man learns from what is happening to others.

We have long list of Igbos who have tried to align in the past and got nothing from it.

So, it will be stupid of Peter Obi to toe that same line.

If the thumbs of northerners will break if they thumbprint for an Igbo man then let Tinubu continue.

AMINDA:
No single region can produce a president without an alliance with another region. That theory was already proved in 2023 and Obi did not win. Why does he continue to do the same thing the same way while expecting a different result?

So alliance with Kwankwaso is not alliance abi?

It will only qualify as alliance if the Igbo man was playing second fiddle, right?

A man who seems like a retired soldier who seems to have fought on the Nigerian side during the Biafran War has revealed how some Nigerian forces disguised as Biafran soldiers to kill minority ethnic nationalities within the then Biafran territory. This caused the minority people to start hating on Igbos because they thought Igbos had turned against them.

Gradually the truth is coming out.
[quote]During the Biafran War, Nigerian soldiers disguised as Biafran soldiers to kill Biafran minorities and instigate hatred between them and the Igbos. This war tactic explains accounts from some Calabar and other Niger Delta people claiming alleged Biafran soldiers burnt their houses and killed their people during the war. @trigottista @Manlike_ED[/quote

During the Biafran War, Nigerian soldiers disguised as Biafran soldiers to kill Biafran minorities and instigate hatred between them and the Igbos. This war tactic explains accounts from some Calabar and other Niger Delta people claiming alleged Biafran soldiers burnt their… pic.twitter.com/3QHC8K3PgH

— Nosakroz (@Nosakroz) September 28, 2026

Nlfpmod
Mynd44
Fergie001