₦airaland Forum

fergie001:
I always tell you something but you always don't listen.

Peter Obi can only win FCT and/or Nasarawa.
He can never win Kano.

He can't win 25% in any of the 5 States you mentioned.

Lol!

Obi won Plateau, Nasarawa and FCT in 2023, can you point to any change in reality that shows he can’t retain these 3 states in 2027?

Kwankwaso is a god in Kano, and wherever he is that’s where Kano people goes. And I’m not relying on just historical evidence but also a little research into what is going on in Kano will tell you the atmosphere in the state. But just to ask you, if you say Obi can’t win Kano, Then who would?

Then for the rest of the states… Obi won Benue in 2023 but it was rigged for Tinubu. Out of 23 LGA, Obi won 15 and Tinubu only won 8.

In Zamfara, I can see the activities of Kabiru Marafa who is quite popular in the state, and I believe he can influence at least 25% of votes for NDC in the presidential election.


Taraba voted for Obi in 2023 but because of lack of boot on ground to protect votes, results were changed for Atiku. Obi will still see 25% of the state’s votes if it’s protected. Let me also add that the current NDC governorship candidate was NNPP governorship candidate in 2023 and he came second just behind Agbu Kefas.

In Adamawa, Binani went toe to toe with a sitting governor in 2023, and you think she can’t mobilize 25% of votes for her presidential candidate? Add that also that Obi is already popular in the Christian communities of the state.

So, I don’t see any of what I said being unrealistic.

BATified2023:
the same way u should ask yourself which northern state can obi win?

Obi will win:
1) Kano
2) Plateau
3) Benue
4) Nasarawa
5) FCT.

Similarly, Obi will get 25% in:
1) Taraba
2) Adamawa (Binani factor)
3) Zamfara (Marafa factor)
4) Kogi
5) Kaduna (tentative)
6) Jigawa (Kwankwasiya presence but tentative)

Tell me which one is not realistic.

AMINDA:
Presidential elections go beyond winning states. All 3 candidates only won 12 states each in 2023 but Tinubu's margin of victory was only 1.9m (the least ever in the history of this country). 5.6m out of Tinubu’s total 8m votes came from the North. Only 800k votes out of Atiku's 6.9m votes was from the South. It is possible for a candidate to not win a single state and still emerge president. All things being equal, Atiku is set to emerge with the highest number of votes cast on the first ballot and that's the worst case scenario. These are still early days but Atiku is the only opposition with the momentum as at today.

The 3 states Atiku won in the South in 2023 were Osun, Bayelsa and Akwa Ibom.

Now, in Osun, Adeleke has endorsed Tinubu. But supposing Osun indigenes choose to defy Adeleke like it seems they would, I don’t see Atiku being the beneficiary of such defiance. I see Makinde being the beneficiary or even Obi.

In Akwa Ibom, Udom was Atiku’s DG and a sitting governor and wanted to show working and rigged the state for Atiku. Udom is no longer there. The sitting governor is now singing “on your mandate.” How does Atiku hope to garner votes in Akwa Ibom.

In Bayelsa, Diri has defected to APC and the National Leader of NDC is from there. Automatically, Bayelsa is for Obi while Tinubu might garner some fringe votes.

Now, which state is Atiku hoping to see even 25% in Southern Nigeria?

It’s funny when I see Atiku supporters grandstanding.

Because until recently when Atiku came back with the lamba of returning subsidy, he was practically inexistent in national discourse. Even the promise to return subsidy is only resonating with northern populace; core north at that. And I think it’s because northerners are used to freebies so much that they will jump on anything that will bring back freebies.

Even with his little resurgence into media conversations, it changes nothing.

Or can Atiku supporters tell us any southern state that Atiku can win in 2027?

Let’s even reduce it to 25% threshold…. How many states in the South can Atiku score 25% of votes cast?

Or is Atiku hoping to win only with votes from the core north? Because even North Central is a shaky ground for him too.

We appreciate everybody in the Obidient community. But apart from waving flags, what is Flag Boy’s contribution to the Obidient movement?

Urgent1Million:
This is a good development.
Let's hope they don't harass bolt drivers in the process.

Na the koko be this.

Those airport drivers will gang up against Bolt drivers to the extent that they will be afraid to accept airport rides.

Hopefully FAAN puts modalities to checkmate that.

emkz:
Obi and Kwankwaso have been working in isolation. They rarely appear together exceot during NDC events.

When Obi declared his campaign open, Kwankwaso was not there. When Obi went for photoshoot, Kwankwaso was not there.

Is it that they can't stand each other or Kwankwaso doesn't exactly trust Obi? Is it also that Kwankwaso cant stand those clowning around Peter Obi?

Why did Dickson call for unity?

When will Obi/Kwankwaso inaugurate their campaign council? Who'd be DG? Aisha Yesufu?

How many of Atiku’s photoshoots has Amaechi appeared in?

obiekunie01:
Let me put this here for the records.

TINUBU USED THESE TWO MEN TO FINALLY TRAP OBI.

This is how it was planned and executed.

Before Dickson registered his party, he visited Tinubu and had a lengthy discussion with him. then he setup ADC.

Before Kwankwaso accepted to be VP, he visited Tinubu and had a lengthy discussion with him.


Then Obi was ADC and it was very clear to all the ADC members that Obi has seen thru their scheme to use him and win 2027 election by making him a VP.

Tinubu was hoping that Obi will fall for the trap because that will mean instant victory for Tinubu come 2027. But on noticing that Obi is about to escape, and being the master strategist that he is, he quickly setup another trap using Dickson and Kwankwaso.

The deal is - ACCEPT TO BE HIS VICE, HOLD HIM DOWN SO ICAN SCALE THRU TO WIN 2027 - I WILL HAND OVER TO YOU AS PRESIDENT AND DICKSON AS VICE.

Its a sweet deal that made a lot of sense to dickson and kwankwaso. so they accepted.

UNFORTUNATELY FOR OBI - HE TRUSTED THEM AND JUMPED INTO NDC. THESE TWO MEN WILL MESS UP HIS AMBITION BY NOT MOBILISING ENUGH MEN TO MAN THE PARTY PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. And I think Obi has realised it but it is too late for him to do anything about it. He will just play along and hope Nigerians will vote him so massively to defeat their well planned and well sponsored rigging.


OBI WILL BE SO RIGGED OUT AND TINUBU DECLARED PRESIDENT. THE PARTY WILL NOT CHALLENGE THE DEFEAT IN COURT.

Then comes the main war - TINUBU WILL NOT KEEP TO THE DEAL. He will not handover to them come 2031 - HE WILL AMEND THE CONSTITUTION FOR ONE TERM PRESIENCY OF SEVEN YEARS AND TINUBU HIMSELF WILL BE THE FIRST BENEFICIARY.

So you’re telling me that between serving as Vice President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria from 2027-2031, and staying jobless and idle for 4 years to be handed the presidency in 2031 (not guaranteed), Kwankwaso will choose staying idle for 4 years on top of Tinubu?

Go and treat malaria

DoTheNeedful:
I don't always agree with you politically, but I admire you for being principled. I also appreciate your intellectual depth on issues, especially on the economy and related matters. Unfortunately, there is a dearth of people like you in our social media space.

Thank you!

Let me take this as a compliment.

seunmsg:
This is the positive trajectory of our economy that these empty and power by hungry hyenas (Peter Obi and Atiku) want to come and destroy. We shall do everything position to ensure these gains are sustained for the benefit of Nigerians.

There’s literally a thread on front page where Peter disagreed with Atiku on the return of subsidy.

Why are you being mischievous?

nairalanda1:
It is being paid to NNPC, and it is being paid to keep them to be able to compete with dangote, as NNPC is still importing fuel, and their fuel would cost more than Dangote fuel without the monies.

It's not the consumption subsidy we were used to

And even then, government still owes NNPC trillions in naira debt. And the payments are a net negative for our economy. Government should leave NNPC alone to do business and to float and swim..and do the hard work.

The fact is, if subsidy had gone in 1992, or even in 2012, none of this nonsense would have happened. NNPC would have been a strong competitive entity by now. But ...cheap fuel.

Exactly! Allow NNPC do business and swim or sink.

If it sinks then let them close shop and go home or hands off the downstream sector.

See, the problem with majority of Nigerians is ignorance. And this is why sometimes it makes sense when some people say that the political class are deliberately sabotaging education so that some section of the populace will remain uneducated and easy to be manipulated and hoodwinked.

oneMalik:
the same way una fore-fathers fears reality and abandoned it for path of least resistance .... here you are today fearing same and trying to push it to your unborn children as usual .

mind you , time has past and things has changed ..... no going back on subsidy and ATiku can go to hell .

5-months ain't 5-years to clear y'all doubt .

The point exactly!

We are suffering this today because our fathers kept resisting subsidy removal until they pushed it to us and look at what it caused us.

Now, some narrow-minded folks want us to do the same and push it to our children.

No willingness to sacrifice at all.

And this attitude is also what informs why, for most of us, our lives is the way it is; because we are always looking for the easy way out and for immediate gains instead of making sacrifices today for a quantum leap tomorrow.

AMINDA:
Nigeria is a third world country. You have been sold the cool-aid that all forms of subsidy is a bad thing but you are grossly mistaken. Even the most developed countries in the world have some form of subsidy or the other. Infact, the whole world is subsidising the US economy, hence why they continue to maintain a strong presence in the middle East and why oil prices are sold in dollars (The Nixon-Petrodollar deal with the Saudis). Subsidy have been long removed from diesel, jet fuel and kerosene, did it translate into anything meaningful for the common man? Just because the IMF and Worldbank says it does not mean we should swallow it hook, line and sinker.

It’s not IMF rhetorics.

Do I need IMF to tell me that States were struggling to pay salaries because they were receiving peanuts from Federation Account?

Do I need IMF to remind me how NNPC once went nearly a year without remitting a kobo to federation Account because they were operating at a loss?

Do I need IMF to tell me that FG was spending trillions of naira on subsidy while getting deeper in debt?

You need to understand that some of us don’t operate on that level, and that’s why I support Tinubu’s removal of subsidy even though I hate him till forever and I want him out as early as tomorrow. But my hatred for Tinubu will not stop me from recognizing what is good for the country on the long run.

Subsidy is gone, let’s allow it go and focus rather on proper channeling of the gains.

AMINDA:
Whoever will return subsidy in 2027 has my vote.

If Obi says no to subsidy, I’ll gladly vote for Atiku.

If BAT returns subsidy, I will vote BAT.

My candidate is SUBSIDY!!!

One of the most heartbreaking things I’ve found out is how easy it is to deceive Nigerians.

Like, Nigerians practically believe anything no matter how absurd.

Every government since Jonathan has been trying to remove subsidy until Tinubu finally did.

Now, a conning old man looking for votes is saying he wants to return it and some people are cheering it.

The question you guys have not answered is for how long does Atiku intend to return the subsidy?

Is the subsidy going to be permanent or after some years another government will remove it again and we will start this suffering all over again?

No reasonable human being with brain in his head will support Atiku in this.

kunleham:
Good write up!
But I'll disagree with you a bit on your assertion that price will reduce when fuel subsidy is returned. This means you don't understand Nigerian market. I bet you that no price will reduce despite subsidy in place.
Take for instance, charges by cab owners operating on CNG, despite the fact that CNG is highly subsidised, no Cab driver will tell you I'm operating on CNG, so Charges to Airport in Abuja for instance from Central Area is N10,000.00, he'll still charge you N20,000.00 or so being charged by those operating on gasoline.

I get your point.

But I think what is happening with CNG users is that they are taking advantage of a bad situation.

So, they use CNG but won’t let you know they do. They will rather pretend to be buying fuel costly as well.

But should fuel price reduction become general, they will have nothing to hide under anymore.

You can’t tell me fuel will be selling at 350, for instance, and transporters will retain their outrageous transport fares.

Hedonisco:
Whatever it takes to get rid of Tinubu MUST be done. Full stop. No stupid pseudo economic explanations can be tolerated. Tinubu must be removed at all cost.

We agree on the fact that Tinubu must go.

The question is, who do you want to replace him with?

nairalanda1:
One thing I have learned about the whole subsidy issue is Nigerians have a 'give us this day our daily bread mentality'

The problem with that mentaility is that it can lead to people asking for tomorrow's bread yesterday, with tragic results.

A very troubling mentality at that. Majority of Nigerians seem to lack the ability to see beyond their noses.

That’s why Tinubu was able to deceive them in 2012 to protest against subsidy removal against Jonathan only to become president in 2023 and removed same subsidy.

Now, they seem ready to let Atiku play with their brains again and it’s just so pathetic.

Kukutente23:
I hope this is not Obi's position you're parroting because if it's so, then it's better you guys stop the circus, close up shop and join the BATISTS train.

You guys have not really shown any mental and political skill to engage a machiavellian maximalist like Tinubu in a bloody nose campaign anyway.

So I'm not surprised you're chickening out at the first shot of political bullet borne of pragmatism. If the thinking of Obi's camp is to back Tinubu's policies and then engage in a wild goose chase of showing Nigerians they'll be better administrator and managers of our resources as if Nigerians will ever trust any politician, then you guys had better sit 2027 out instead of becoming a nuisance opposition helping the ruling party to retain power

So you’re saying that you want subsidy back?

If yes, why and for how long?

WantsandMore:
we're actually in Babylon rn, we need to leave this god-damned place. Atiku is our Cyrus the great. I think he has my vote. It makes for a comparison in the future. We are a growing democracy after all.

We don’t have to do that.

One of the hallmarks of intelligence is being able to predict the outcome of a situation before even getting into it.

We don’t have to vote Atiku just to see if he’s right or wrong.

Then what happens if he is wrong? We come back to this situation we are now?

My point is anywhere wey we don pass, make we just dey go front.

Morizo:
That's your own cup of tea

Fuel subsidy should return. If not for anything but for the fact that this government has borrowed thrice more and living lavishly despite the removal than those that were paying it and our lives were far better

Why are we suffering when there's nothing to show except the political elites living like kings and queens. Lets live the now and survive today first cos there's no better future as far as APC is concerned, it's only going to get worse for others but very good for them and their cronies.

I will vote for Atiku for simply that reason. Every single country in the world subsidises one thing or the other.

I understand that we are all suffering.

My point is that we can’t keep going back and forth with subsidy.

If Atiku wins and returns it and we get that temporary reprieve, what happens when another president comes in and removes it again? We go back to this situation again?

Like I said on my post, only shallow people will support the return of subsidy.

Because what you are doing is asking for Aspirin to postpone a pain that will eventually come back.

We don’t have to play stupid opposition politics like Tinubu by deliberately sabotaging what we know is a necessary step for our country.

Don’t return fuel subsidy.

Don’t take us back to Babylon.

AMINDA:
Tinubu is paying more on fuel subsidies than previous administrations did. He has only found a new name for it, "energy security." Tinubu has also outborrowed all previous administrations who paid subsidies with less infrastructure to show for it.

"Only living people can enjoy future gains. A government that starves people in installments cannot redeem itself with a hypothetical prosperity scheduled for an undefined tomorrow."

- Farook Kperogi

Oya tell me…

If Atiku returns subsidy, is it going to be permanent or after a few years it will be removed again and we start suffering again?

Qadaffi2idiamin:
Somebody woke up in the morning and decided to spew trash.

How can anyone in his right state of mind say subsidy has benefited Nigerians? It has only benefited the Abuja bandit and his Rivers state Temu Hitler.

There's nobody that can point to a single Nigerian related capital project from this administration. Where is it? If government builds roads is that a project to dance on?

Put it right, Tinubu brought poverty to Nigeria and he has promised to take it to another level by taxing Nigerians to the teeth in the name of economic reforms while they create fake agencies of government to fleece that money from Nigerians.

If you don't know what to say, go to an ogogoro joint and listen to people who have space for you to talk back.

If Tinubu is mismanaging our subsidy gains, why don’t we focus, rather, on getting a replacement that will properly channel those funds to things that will benefit the generality of Nigerians instead of talking about returning subsidy.

Meanwhile you have not answered my question…

So, if Atiku returns subsidy, is the subsidy going to stay permanent or after some years it will be removed again and will start this cycle of adjustment to subsidy removal all over again?

The losing team 🤓

It’s sweeting my belle.

Tinubu will lose Kwara in 2027.

I see Saraki retaking Kwara.

As the campaign for 2027 presidential election kicked off, Atiku Abubakar, presidential candidate of the ADC, has ignited a very troubling conversation by suggesting he would return fuel subsidy if elected.

While the suggestion is populist, like most people have described it, and appealing to the ignorant masses who do not understand the dynamics of macroeconomics, there’s need to educate the electorate against such proposition.

First, returning fuel subsidy means returning to square one of what successive governments have been trying to solve before Tinubu eventually damned all consequences to remove it.

If you return subsidy today, agreed their might be some temporary relief for the masses as the price of fuel might drop drastically, and with it the price of transportation and basic commodities in the short term, in the medium and long term, Nigeria will simply return to the Egypt that it is currently trying to exit.


What I mean is this…. After about 6 months paying subsidy, government finances will begin to strain. The money going to State Governments will reduce from what it currently is, and with time, States will start finding it difficult to pay salaries again.

Then in the long term, government will, all over again, begin the campaign for fuel subsidy removal to free up funds.

After some years, another president that is not Atiku will come and decide that fuel subsidy is no longer sustainable, again, and we will hear that evil phrase again - “subsidy is gone.”

Do I need to tell you what will happen again?

Fuel prices will skyrocket again.

Cost of transportation will balloon again.

Prices of basic commodities will start flying again.

And then what? We return to this current situation that Atiku is proposing to save us from; all over again.

So, before you jump to support Atiku, think it through.

The mistake you are going to make in jumping to support Atiku because he’s promising to return fuel subsidy is the same mistake that some Nigerians made in 2012 by joining political jobbers to protest against Jonathan when he removed subsidy during his presidency.

What later happened? The same person that led that protest became president 12 years later and removed the same subsidy that he led ignorant people to protest against.

So, before you support Atiku, ask yourself if you want Nigeria to keep running round a circle or to move on from every stage and hurdle we have crossed?

The effect of fuel subsidy removal is biting hard, admitted, but the solution is not to return it, rather we should continue to bear it until we achieve equilibrium. That way, we are sure we and our children are never going to have to suffer the effects of subsidy removal again.

Penguin is a bird of reason.

Things I love to hear.

Islamic fundamentalists have been collecting left, right and centre in the past months. Not a good time to be a terrorist sympathizer.

Meanwhile, the law should be promulgated in all of Europe. Any ijiot who doesn’t like it should relocate to Afghanistan.

Jakarta:
Ogbeni let person hear word, Let's be realistic, Deltans no even know say 1 party name na NDC, Omo Agege self no go win him polling unit let alone his community. As for you Sheriff, we know of your salary no need announcing it, but why you come use ₦50M just to buy form, spent millions on campaign and lobbying? I no blame una, Na the i d i ots wey many pass the upright ones I blame.

I won’t stop you from tickling yourself if it gives you pleasure.

But just to remind you that in 2023 we told you and your ilk that Peter Obi will win Delta and you swore that he won’t because Okowa was Atiku’s running mate. What later happened?

Like I said, continue to tickle yourself.

h777:
Anambra's history around 2003—specifically the abduction of a sitting governor—remains one of the most stark examples of political godfatherism in Nigeria's Fourth Republic.

Peter Obi’s eventual entry and two-term tenure as governor are widely viewed as a decisive shift in the state's political structure. By bypassing traditional political brokers, prioritizing fiscal discipline, and refusing to share state resources with political patrons, he dismantled the influence that godfathers held over Anambra's governance.

To his supporters, this track record demonstrates:
- Political Willpower: Standing firm against established power brokers without yielding to compromise.
- Capacity & Prudence: Focusing state funds on direct public infrastructure, education, and health.
- Direct Popular Mandate: Building a movement centered on citizen support rather than reliant on political structures.

The belief that Obi’s presidency poses a structural threat to traditional godfatherism nationwide remains a core driver for his movement.

You know it’s pathetic that we are dealing with people who have refused to educate themselves on who Peter Obi is but choose instead to consistently speak from a position of stark ignorance.

Well, I can’t wait for Obi to shock them.

Maybe then they will know that the “Okwute” that they call him is not just a mere suffix.

Balls? Lol

Ask about Peter Obi.

Before Peter Obi Anambra is on record as the only state in Nigeria where a sitting governor was kidnapped because godfathers held sway. Peter Obi came and ended the grip of godfathers in Anambra politics that until today, over 12 years later, they have not recovered and may never recover.

There’s a reason those who switched off the IREV against Obi did so.

You wanna know why?

Because those who know how much balls Obi possessed preferred Tinubu to Obi. They knew they could negotiate with Tinubu based on his inefficiencies but they have nothing on Obi.

So, we are not just headlessly trying to chase Tinubu away, we are also very intentional about who we want to replace him with - and that’s Peter Obi.

And all the godfathers and evil structures holding Nigeria down know that their powers will end with Peter Obi’s presidency because he’s so popular that he doesn’t need them to win election.

Then in addition to having balls, Obi has capacity and compassion, and his wife will never ask us to fry akara.

It’s obvious that the governor is beginning to feel the heat ignited on his arse by the NDC as led by Omo-Agege.

NDC will win Delta governorship election in 2027.

Presidential election is a given.

Oh my gosh!

What sort of dirt does the vagabond sitting in Aso Rock have that has become a fishbone in everyone’s throat like this?

I really can’t wait for him to be disgraced globally.