₦airaland Forum

That’s why the 2 of you will be retired in 2027.

You have destroyed Nigeria enough.

Make una go rest.

“He said the proposed government would be anchored on four principles: competence, integrity, national inclusion and fair representation.”

The question now is between Atiku and Obi, who falls into this bracket?

A coalition of six opposition parties has proposed the establishment of a ‘government of national competence’ that would operate for a single four-year transition term ahead of the 2027 general election.

The proposal was made on Monday at a summit of opposition political parties organised by G100 in Abuja.

Political parties represented at the summit were the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Allied Peoples Movement (APM), Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Peoples Redemption Party (PRP) and Social Democratic Party (SDP).

Salihu Lukman, former vice-chairman (north-west) of the All Progressives Congress (APC), who presented the proposal at the summit, said the proposed government would be anchored on four principles: competence, integrity, national inclusion and fair representation.

The coalition also proposed an enforceable transition charter to ensure that participating parties abide by the agreement.

Under the proposed framework, the coalition would establish a central leadership committee, a publicity and communication committee and a legal committee.

The coalition would also create working groups on democratic renewal, the single-term transition charter, national reforms, opposition unity and the selection of a common presidential candidate.

Lukman said the initiative is not seeking the dissolution of any political party or asking any candidate to withdraw from the 2027 race.

He said the immediate objective is to establish a framework for cooperation before discussions on leadership and candidates.

According to Lukman, G100 was facilitating the process without endorsing any political party or candidate.

He said the goal was to provide Nigerians with a credible alternative government in the 2027 elections.

https://www.thecable.ng/adc-pdp-ndc-propose-four-year-government-of-national-competence-ahead-of-2027/

AMINDA:
Objectively, Atiku currently has the momentum. He has kept the most pressure on Tinubu and has dominated the media in the past weeks. His position on subsidy is already resonating in the North, even cutting across Tinubu and Obi's traditional voters in the South because economics does not care about tribe or religion. In my honest view, if Obi had also maintained that he would bring back subsidy, he would have effectively taken Tinubu out of the race as many voters in the Southwest may have even pivoted towards him as the safer Southern option. By taking the same position as Tinubu, he gave Tinubu a lifeline and put his die-hard supporters in an awkward position where they are now forced to defend Tinubu's subsidy removal.

P.S: I still maintain that Obi needs to be in the race for Tinubu to be defeated.

Lol!

So, your definition of momentum is a few media headlines in the past week?

Sleekfingers:
In Delta state, Osun state, and Oyo state

In 2023, his running mate, Okowa, was from Delta but he couldn’t win it. I doubt he even saw 25% of votes cast. What makes you think that will change now? What are the feelers on ground to support such?

onuman:
Benue?

Benue people have always voted a Fulani presidential candidate. The Munchi factor. Or are they going to change?

Obi won Benue in 2023 and they changed the result against him.

He will win it again.

seunmsg:
Atiku doesn't give a damn about the ADC candidate. I worked against both Fintiri and Bala Mohammed in favor of APC candidates in 2023. Binani will not work for Obi no matter the situation. You don't have to believe me, the result will speak for itself.

Well, without Binani, and in an election that LP had no serious candidate in Adamawa, Obi scored over 100k votes and you think that will now diminish?

zegxy:
Southern vote is inconsequential compared to Northern votes
With the unprecedented sufferings, Nigeria has been plagued to under Tinubu, a reasonable amount of southerners might end voting for Atiku with his recent promise to return subsidy. Poverty has no tribe a d Nigeria are finding it difficult to even feed well.

For your information, I am a southerner and I voted Obi in the last election but I am considering voting Atiku this time around because he seems to be the most experienced out of the contestants to get Nigeria out of the wood in the economy sector.

The question you should ask yourself is, if Atiku returns subsidy, will it be permanent?

Or after some years they will remove the subsidy again and we start this suffering again?

Is that what you want to vote for?

Tareq1105:
I've challenged Bolaji Abdullahi ADC on this before to mention one state in the entire south and north central that he thinks Atiku could get 25%. He was not direct bcoz he had nothing to say. He said we should allow Jan 16 to come first.

Lol! Maybe they’re hoping to manufacture it from the sky when January 16 comes.

shinealight:
Why can’t you ppl use your brain for a change? If there was anything CRIMINALLY incriminating in Tinubu’s file, what reason or excuse would the FBI now give for not prosecuting him at the time? They would be shooting themselves in the foot to now claim that he has a case to answer bordering on criminality. So, the file contains Nothing CRIMINAL to justify prosecuting him Then as well as Now.
The man will walk free again and come back to rule Nigeria for another 4 years before handing over to other APC stalwarts Shettima/Wike in 2031. Atiku will continue to bite the dust till it’s time to answer his Creator’s Call home…. the Price of Inordinate Ambition!

Next time try to make sense without cursing at people.

Nobody is talking about FBI prosecuting Tinubu. The aim is to establish that Tinubu is a certified drug lord and a criminal.

And if there’s nothing there, why is Tinubu filing an objection to its release?

AMINDA:
The answer to that question depends on your level of bias but the truth is known to any independent or neutral observer.

Let’s pretend you’re going to drop your bias for a minute, from your objective assessment, who, between Atiku and Obi, currently has the best momentum?

Lol!

This is why it’s usually funny to me when Seunsmg, Akpakomiza and co are making their 2027 electoral projections.

They never factor in the widespread disenchantment of the populace due to the negative effects of Tinubu’s reforms while people around him seem to swim in affluence and we are told to endure.

A rude shock awaits APC and Tinubu in 2027.

Isn’t it pathetic that despite all his asslicking, Umahi was an afterthought in Tinubu’s campaign council?

Maybe soon Umahi will realize that the Igbo man will get nothing out of Nigeria by asslicking these people.

Azikiwe got nothing from it.

Orji Uzor Kalu got nothing from it.

Okorocha got nothing from it.

The list is endless.

But he can continue to fool himself.

AMINDA:
If anyone should be stepping down for anyone, it should be in favour of the candidate that has built the most momentum. A two-horse race may even be more beneficial for Tinubu. I believe he does not have a pathway to victory as long as Obi remains in the race.

Now, between Atiku and Obi who has built the best momentum?

The G100 meeting aimed at gathering the different presidential candidates to discuss and unite behind one candidate, which was supposed to happen on August 18th, is holding today, August 31st, 2026.

Vanguard News examines the choice before the candidates.

Who should step down for whom?

Should Atiku step down for Obi in respect to zoning?

Or should Obi step down for Atiku because of northern votes?

THE Ibadan Declaration of April 2026 was a beautiful document – a poem of political intent, signed with the ink of desperation. But as the opposition leaders meet once again today in Abuja, the gathering of Nigeria’s political heavyweights resembles not an army preparing for battle, but a fleet of captains, each insisting that only his vision can rescue the nation.

In Tony Blair’s A Journey, he writes of the “journey from Opposition to government” as a time when “every day drags. Every week a fresh anxiety or event or statement disturbs the careful orchestration of the march from impotence to power”. President Tinubu’s tenure which is in its fourth year of what his minders call “Renewed Hope,” shows the opposition appear to have finally woken to the reality of survival. But will its leaders learn the lessons that history, both near and far, has taught?

The Mathematics and Reality of Survival

The question before the opposition is not whether to unite, but whether they can. And here, the record is unforgiving. In Kenya’s 2002 elections, an opposition coalition defeated KANU, which had ruled for 39 years. Yet scholars argue that the coalition only had “partial influence” – equally significant were “the split within KANU” and “public disaffections with prevailing economic living conditions”.

Similarly, in 2015, the then ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), under the presidency of Goodluck Ebele Azikiwe Jonathan, was defeated at the polls by the All Progressives Congress (APC), after 16 years in office. Through a combination of in-fighting in the PDP, insider conspiracy and strong mobilisation by the coalition, the opposition defeated the PDP.

The point is that incumbents are rarely defeated by opposition unity alone; they are defeated when their own foundations crack and public anger reaches a boiling point.

Today, President Tinubu’s foundations show hairline fractures. Multi-dimensional poverty stalks the land. The cry of hunger has increased in decibel because what should have gone round appears to be concentrated in the hands of a few. Yet the opposition remains divided, its leaders held hostage by their own ambitions.

The Captains and Their Ships

Atiku Abubakar, who has run for president more times than many Nigerians have voted, now carries the flag of the ADC – he has Rotimi Amaechi as his running mate. Peter Obi, the social media phenomenon, who commands the Obidient movement has reached out to Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso as his tag-team partner to lead the NDC ticket. Seyi Makinde has now joined the fray. Each sits atop a structure, structures and personal war chests built around their individual ambitions.

Today’s opposition resembles a football team with five captains and seven people insisting they should be the coach. Everybody cannot wear the armband. Ambitions would have to be sacrificed for strategy. That sacrifice has not yet been made.


The Weight of Incumbency

The power of incumbency is not a gentle breeze but a hurricane. Tinubu’s grip on the legislative arm is “seemingly unmatched”. The APC controls the machinery of government, possesses significant organisational structures, and enjoys the advantages that naturally accompany sitting presidents. Nigeria’s judiciary presently has in its fold some justices whose pronouncements continue to pour cold water on the expected integrity and competence of that arm of government.

Worse still, the electoral umpire, INEC, is viewed with deep suspicion. As one analyst puts it, “Nigerians now view election results announced by INEC with grave suspicion or sometimes outright disbelief”.

The Burden of Choice

The G100’s summit, billed for today, is not intended to “determine, in a single sitting, questions of presidential candidacy”. Instead, it seeks to establish “a formal architecture through which those questions can be negotiated collectively, transparently and in good faith”. This is diplomatic language for postponing the inevitable bloodshedding.

Who will step down for whom? This is the question that sank the Ibadan project, and it remains unanswered. The NDC has already declared Peter Obi “the brightest, best and most popular candidate in the opposition”. Atiku’s camp will say the same about their man.

The North/South Dichotomy

Yet, there is the nagging issue of the North/South dichotomy. Whereas the 1999 Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, as amended, recognises the balancing of power between the North and South, in December 2002, the PDP, via an expanded caucus meeting inside Aso Rock Presidential Villa cemented it by voting for power to be held by the South for eight years, after which it would return to the North for another eight years. This was in the build-up to Obasanjo’s second term bid. Obasanjo pulled all the stops to ensure that Umaru Musa Yar’Adua emerged as the PDP candidate in 2007 and the latter won to become president. Unfortunately, the cold hands of death snatched Yar’Adua and Jonathan finished his term but still contested in 2011 and won. But he had broken the eight-year rule.

Part of the sentiments that drove the mobilisation against Jonathan stemmed from the perceived sidelining of the North and its supposed, entitled eight years, apart from Jonathan’s governance discount. Buhari did his eight years.

Tinubu, a southerner, is about to finish his first term of four years. The South expects to serve eight years. The opposition would be wise to factor the sentiments effusing from the South about its entitlement to eight years, while not discounting the massive northern votes needed by any candidate to win Nigeria’s presidential election, when it decides on who to present as a consensus/coalition candidate.

The Ghost of Ubuntu

There is an ancient African philosophical worldview rooted in Ubuntu – “I am because we are”. It is a creed that demands sacrifice of the individual for the collective. But Nigerian opposition politics has become a theatre of the ego, where personal ambition masquerades as national service.

History beckons. Yar’Adua is still remembered for his humility, even though his health challenges cut his vision short. The opposition has an opportunity to present itself as the alternative – but only if it can forego personal political gains and present a leader “truly committed to and interested in the overall sanitisation of Nigeria’s political sphere”.

The Verdict

As the opposition gathers in Abuja, the question is not whether they can defeat Tinubu – he remains formidable, and his allies predict “the easiest contest of his career”. The question is whether they can defeat themselves. The capacity for self-sabotage in Nigerian politics is legendary. If history teaches us anything, it is that opposition coalitions succeed when they are born of genuine sacrifice, not when ambition is merely papered over with communiqués. The Ibadan Declaration was a start. What follows will determine whether it was poetry or epitaph.

Who will tell the opposition leaders that history rewards the selfless, not the ambitious? Who will tell them that the gathering of eagles means nothing if they cannot fly in formation?

But who will tell the opposition?

https://www.vanguardngr.com/2026/08/todays-opposition-gathering-in-abuja-the-choice-before-presidential-candidates/

seunmsg:
Binani never worked for Tinubu in 2023. She worked for Atiku who in turned secretly supported her governorship ambition against Fintiri. Why did you think Tinubu refused to give her any appointment despite her strong performance in the governorship election? Same thing happened in Bauchi state.

After the election, Binani quickly joined Atiku in ADC even before Fintiri moved to APC. She knew there was no way she would get APC ticket in 2027.

Adamawa is an interesting state in terms of ethnic and religious composition. The Christians in the state voted for Peter Obi in 2023. The APC structure and minority tribes carried Tinubu to second while Atiku won being the home boy. However, Atiku is Fulani just like Binani. Adamawa minority ethnic groups including the Christians don’t want Fulani dominance.

The outgoing governor has done a lot in empowering the minority ethnic groups in the last four years. He has also been able to merge the APC and PDP structure together. Add Christian votes to the mix, there is no path to victory for Binani.

For the presidential election, Binani will simply support her Fulani elder brother like she did in 2023. Anyone thinking she will work for Peter Obi is simply delusional. She’s an Atiku babe 100%. Governor Fintiri, Ribadu and the now stronger APC structure will deliver for the president.

Overall, Atiku will still win being the home boy. Tinubu will come a close second and get over 25%. Peter Obi won’t get 25% because APC has made strong inroad into the Christian population that voted for him in 2023.



To your other question, Voting is largely rural based in Nigeria. Only few elites who stay in the cities vote based on perceived performance or non- performance. Ethnicity, religion, party structure, community leaders, vote buying etc determines the voting pattern in rural communities. Tinubu will still struggle in FCT, PH city, and other state capitals but those votes will thin out with rural votes just like 2023.

Again, a lot of folks who don’t like Tinubu also did not see Atiku and Peter Obi as better alternatives. So even the votes Tinubu is losing in the cities, the opposition are not getting them.

Saying that Fintiri has merged PDP and APC structure in Adamawa is you being disingenuous.

Why are you deliberately ignoring the fact that Nuhu Ribadu has arm twisted the governor out of APC which made the governor conduct an LG election where APC candidates won zero seats?

Also, it was Ribadu’s candidate, not Fintiri’s, that emerged as APC guber candidate which angered Fintiri.

So, there’s no coalescence of Adamawa stakeholders like you are trying to paint. It’s been fractured.

And lastly I ask you again, ADC has governorship candidate in Adamawa, if Binani works for Atiku and he wins the presidency, for instance, will Atiku leave ADC candidate and support Binani instead? You’re refusing to recognize the fact that Binani and Obi’s destinies are intertwined and she has no choice but to work for him. Same also with other NDC down ballot candidates in Adamawa.

Teenaira:
No, it is not tribalism. Tribalism will mean it is the Yoruba that will vote for him. Now, if you check the population of the Yorubas, if they all vote for him, he will still not be president.

So, it is established now that tribalism will not make any of the contenders win.

Infact, that is why Obi could not win in 2023 inspite of his tribalistic approach making more than 90% of Ibos to vote for him. Same thing with Buhari before Tinubu went into a strategic alliance with him for the 2023 elections.

So, I am not voting for Obi because he doesn't have the competency to be president of Nigeria and not because of tribalism. Infact, available records shows that among the 3 major ethnic groups, the Ibos are clearly the most tribalistic as could be seen in the 2023 election results.

Have you seen the voting pattern of Igbos before 2023?

yemre:
And you too should tell us why you people keep spending so much since 2023, filing cases and expecting a criminal record that doesn't exist. Doing the same thing the same way over time but expecting a different result! Isn't that f##lish? You think you need to instruct the FBI to come and pick him up if he had a case to answer?

You should rather concentrate on your campaigns, telling the electorates reasons you think you're the right man for the job and backing it up with your legacies instead of looking for what is not lost. (Oh sorry, I forgot that you had nothing to campaign with except statistics with zero proof of previous performance when you had the opportunity 😀😀😀

I think, at this point, you should support Tinubu because he's 10steps ahead of you. This will prevent you from wasting your money campaigning fruitlessly.

If there’s nothing there, then why is Tinubu flying motion against its release?

Tinubu will be smoked out of Aso Rock in 2027.

I’ve always told his supporters this but they prefer to bury their heads in sand than accept reality.

Kalulu44:
Hmmm.... What a relief win for us. But the team still needs a lot of hard work to get to where we want them to be.
I'm not overexcited yet.
My only happiness is seeing Bruno back in the groove, Mainoo doing Mainoo stuff, and Rashford putting the hardwork Many of his critics and me his number 1 fan wanted.
He's still our best on the wings.
Good win, unto the next one Everton.

Mainoo was my standout performer in this game.

Meanwhile, I don’t know why we bought Youri Tielemans because I seriously don’t see his impact at all. Even to run na wahala.

No amount of sabotage is enough to stop Obi in 2027.

seunmsg:
Obi will not win Kano, Plateau and Benue. Nasarawa is 50/50 while I concede FCT to him.

Taraba is now an APC state so it will be a straight fight between Tinubu and Atiku. With the governor and TY Danjuma now backing APC and with most Northern Christians now supporting Mr. President, Tinubu should win Taraba with Atiku coming second. Whatever votes are left won’t be up to 25% for Obi.

Adamawa is Atiku’s home. He will win easily with Tinubu coming second. Tinubu will ride on the party structure and state governor to get 25%. Binani under NDC is not Binani under APC. She can’t deliver 25% to Peter Obi because she’s even backing Atiku for president. She’s in NDC for her own ambition and not Obi’s ambition. Tinubu saw her treacherous behavior in 2023 and that’s why she got no appointment despite her solid performance in the governorship election. Binani is an Atiku girl.


Obi will not get 5% in Zamfara so no need to waste time on that state. Kogi is also APC state. The only opposition in the state is Senator Natasha and she belongs to Wike’s rainbow coalition. Obi won’t get 15% in the state.

Peter Obi did well in Southern Kaduna in 2023. Sadly, he has lost that region to Tinubu. The people of southern Kaduna are Tinubu’s biggest supporters in the north right now. Tinubu will clear that region. Obi won’t get 10% in Kaduna in 2027.

Jigawa is not even in play so no point wasting time dreaming of Obi getting 25%. Kwakwanso himself couldn’t get 25% in the state when he contested for President, is it now Obi that will get 25% there? lol.

I appreciate that you are having a constructive conversation for the first time since forever.

In Adamawa, Tinubu came second with 187k votes even with Binani’s popularity. He has now lost Binani, who would influence the votes? Nuhu Ribadu? And saying Binani will support Atiku is a wild because she knows ADC has governorship candidate. So, if Atiku wins, will he leave ADC candidate to support her?

In Southern Kaduna… there’s no denying the fact that they have fared better under Tinubu than was the situation in 2023 especially with the appointment of Chris Musa and improved security in the region. Whether that will make them support APC is something we will find out in 2027. But we know their historical voting pattern.

And then just to ask you, you really don’t think the hardship Nigerians are suffering will alter the voting sentiments of a lot of the people that voted Tinubu in 2023? Or that is immaterial?

Akpakomiza2:
Obi actually had boots on ground. Babachir Lawal was stoutly supporting him. Almost all that 105,000 votes came from Christian dominated areas. Binani is a supremacist, she was in APC 2023 yet supported Atiku. Be rest assured that she won't work for obi. Besides, those Muslim votes will mostly go Atiku.
Obi at the height of his popularity couldn't win Benue sir. Governor ortom and over 50% of PDP in Benue supported him yet he still lost. Now, ortom And his followers and even suswan are supporting Tinubu so no chance for obi to win. By now, you should know that Benue votes aren't influenced by insecurity. Besides, insecurity and herdsmen activities have reduced compared to Buhari era. Again, the Muslim- Muslim fear is also gone...

Taraba is Christian dominated. Obi had a chance to win but still lost which means the christians of North East vote differently from those of the north central. Taraba is usually won by the ruling party just like Bayelsa and Akwa ibom. Sani Musa is a Fulani like Binani, he is only interested in his elections. In 2023, he contested under nnpp and couldn't get votes for his fellow Fulani kwankwaso. Obi is on his own. With Taraba governor and the political structure in APC, I think Tinubu will likely win. If obi had people like Danlami ikenya, Sabo kente, Emmanuel bwacha etc, it would have been better.

Kwankwaso as a contestant couldn't get 25% in jigawa, what would he do for Obi? Marafa is working for himself. Zamfara is very conservative, obi has no chance here.

First, why would Binani support Atiku? Does ADC not have a governorship candidate in Adamawa? Will Atiku support Binani over ADC candidate if he wins? The answer is no. So, Binani knows that her destiny is tied to Obi’s victory in the presidential election. Similarly there are other NDC candidates seeking other elective positions. These people know that Obi has to win for them to win.

In Taraba, I can tell you Obi won but results were changed for Atiku. But with strong NDC candidates Obi’s votes will be protected.

You need to understand that votes were massively manipulated in 2023 because parties believed INEC would transmit votes but that will no longer happen in 2027.

Sheuns:
Atiku will get 25% in Lagos, Osun and Rivers to say the least.

He didn’t get 25% of votes in Lagos 2023, what will give it to him now?

Amid Growing #Heroin Allegations, Tinubu Runs to His Friends in #Europe

A long-held view across #Africa, the Middle East, and South America is that Western powers install or protect puppet leaders to control countries and their resources. Many Nigerians now believe President Bola Tinubu (@OfficialABAT) is such a #puppet and that the hidden records concerning alleged heroin trafficking are the strings.

We may never know whether President Bola #Tinubu has ever traded Nigerian secrets or resources in exchange for protection, but many Nigerians see the past @JoeBiden DOJ’s efforts to keep these records hidden as further proof that Western powers are protecting President Tinubu. Whether that belief is right or wrong, the secrecy is feeding it.

The longer the records remain hidden, the stronger the belief becomes that foreign powers have something they can hold over #Nigeria’s president. This mistrust will remain regardless of the outcome of the @FBI and @DEAHQ FOIA case. This is why Western powers must ensure that Nigeria’s upcoming presidential election is #free and #fair. Anything else heightens the risk of Nigeria going the way of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger.
https://x.com/batten_von/status/2094065012079829302?s=46


Nlfpmod
Mynd44
Fergie001

donphilopus:
Tinubu won 9 out of the 21 APC-governed states in 2023. If he's able to win 4 out of the extra 10 now, that'd be about 13 states. Now add Osun to his number of states, that'd be 14. In a three-horse race, 14 states should get him re-elected. True or false?

The question is can he retain all the 9 states he won in 2023?

Can he win Zamfara again?

Can he win Jigawa and Kebbi and Gombe?

They have resources to waste. Let them bring it on.

Where is City Boy Movement today?

Where are the ijiots that were fuuling around in the Southeast?

Did we not tell you all that they were wasting their time?

Tinubu will come a distant third in 2027.

moscow007:
I pray this is true.

If Nigerian votes for the cretin again, that means we are all thieves and druggies

Well, unfortunately those supporting him will still support him even if there’s cocaine powder on his nose.

What releasing the files will do is that it can either get Tinubu disqualified through the courts or stakeholders will abandon him as they won’t want be seen by the international community as supporting a drug baron.

Fingers crossed

Von Batten-Montague-York, L.C.

Update: Last night, the @FBI and @DEAHQ presented the court with new filings concerning the alleged heroin-trafficking records involving President Bola Tinubu (@officialABAT). What is shocking is that we learned the FBI’s Tinubu-responsive search produced 399 pages of documents related to #Nigerian President Bola #Tinubu.

Within those records are materials tied to a drug-trafficking investigation involving #heroin-residue laboratory testing, controlled drug purchases by a cooperating witness, confidential informants, federal grand-jury activity, prosecutorial reports and meetings, surveillance, undercover operations, financial seizures, bank-account seizure warrants, IRS criminal-investigation material, and international investigative coordination.

President Bola #Tinubu's lies are falling apart; this case was never about a civil forfeiture case. The long speculation about whether serious law-enforcement records concerning President Tinubu exist is over. They do exist. The question now is simple: What is contained in those 399 pages that President Tinubu does not want the American and Nigerian people to see?

This is Dr. Von Batten. When my amazing team told me that there were 399 pages of @FBI and @DEAHQ documents linked to Nigeria's President Tinubu (@OfficialABAT), I thought I had heard wrong. 399 pages is a book. What was President Bola #Tinubu’s connection to the reported heroin-trafficking organization to warrant 399 pages of responsive FBI records?

I want to thank President @realDonaldTrump and the entire administration for being this transparent, unlike the @JoeBiden administration, which refused to even admit that it had files on Tinubu. The #Trump #DOJ has shown that it takes Tinubu’s claims that his life will be in danger seriously and is following the law, while at the same time making it known that the records concerning #Tinubu are tied to a serious drug-trafficking investigation.

Source

Akpakomiza2:
If obi will win Kano, it will be narrowly. He will win plateau with reduced margins. He won't win benue and nasarawa but will come close. Ofcourse he will win fct.

Obi getting 25% in Adamawa will be hard, Binani is more concerned about Guber and may still work for Atiku. Marafa can't give obi above 15% in Zamfara which is a stretch. Obi is not in contention in kogi and Jigawa. Apart from Kano, obi won't get more votes from any northern state

First, without boot on ground, Peter Obi scored 105k votes in Adamawa in 2023. Do I need to tell you that he scored more than that but the figures were changed against him? So, Obi is already popular, considerably, in Adamawa. All Binani and her team need to do is protect Obi’s votes and help add some few percentage, and you will see Obi getting his 25%.

Then Benue…. If you say Obi won’t win Benue, then who would? Tinubu that has overseen their slaughter since 2023 or Atiku?

Taraba is a Christian State and a traditional PDP voting state. Obi scored 146k votes in 2023. Atiku who won only scored 189k votes. What has happened that would change this? Also, the current NDC candidate gubernatorial candidate was NNPP gubernatorial candidate in 2023 and came second behind Kefas. Add his influence and that numbers goes even higher.

Then about Zamfara and Jigawa, I can’t say for certain but Kwankwasiya has considerable presence in Jigawa, and Marafa seems to be doing some work in Zamfara. You can’t write them off.

fergie001:
I can't even say the state he will win in the South but he can 25% in a couple.

We live in a world of data and statistics, nobody makes blanket predictions anymore without putting names and numbers to the prediction.

So, can you state the States where you think Atiku will get 25% and what are the feelers on ground that supports it?

AMINDA:
I think you should be more worried about Obi than Atiku. I just told you that only 800k votes out of Atiku's 6.9m votes in 2023 came from the South unlike Tinubu who got 70% of his votes from the North. Atiku won more APC-governed states than he did PDP states. If it's about governors, then it's safe to say that Tinubu has won the elections because APC currently has 31 governors. But we know it's not about governors because Peter Obi had none in 2023 but did reasonably well while Okowa failed to deliver his state as an incumbent and Vice presidential candidate. APC also had 21 governors in 2023, but Tinubu only won 12 states. Only half of those 12 were APC-governed states. Data is stubborn. Like I said, worry more about Obi. Atiku is in good standing, heading into 2027.

Okay, so, Atiku got about 800k votes in 2023 and has now lost about 80% of that number and is also not sure of 25% in any southern state, not even in Rivers where his running mate is from.

What that means is that automatically Atiku is only sure of 25% of votes cast from 19 states of the north. So, even if the north votes for him en masse and helps him win simple majority, he will still fall short of spread.

But then again, can Atiku see 25% of votes cast in Plateau, Benue and Kwara?