₦airaland Forum

Ttalk:
LP
Obi has SE in the kitty and SS as a support base

APC
Tinubu has SW in the bag and NC as backup

PDP
Atiku has NE as a voting strength and ?? as a support base.

Leaving NW as the determinant of the presidential election.

Since NW has the highest voting strength and there's the Kwankwanso factor to reduce the % the other 3 major candidates can take from NW, then the voting % remaining after removing Kwakwaso votes will still be greater than the voting strength of the SE.

Then the winner of NW will be the winner of the election.

Let us now consider the strength of Obi, Tinubu, and Atiku in the NW.

Obi
Obi has no influence at all to muster 15% in the NW so he is out of the game.

Atiku
Atiku's influence in the NW comes from religious and ethnic factors, which would make him perform well in the NW.
However, many factors would equally reduce his performance in that region. Those factors will make him lose to his closest rival Tinubu in that region.

Tinubu
This is the region where APC has 6 governors, the highest number of Senators, and HoR members with structure in every local government.

This is also the region of the incumbent that benefited hugely in infrastructure and human empowerment, this region and its people benefiting from the present government would not allow their source of income close, interest is paramount in politics above religion and tribe, and for this reason, Tinubu will edge Atiku in NW and will become the overall winner.

SECOND POSITION BY REGION

Obi
Nil

Atiku
SW & SS

Tinubu
NE

Final Analysis

Obi
1st SE
1 St SS
2nd Nil

Atiku
1st NE
2nd SS
2nd SW

Tinubu
1st SW
1st NC
2nd NE

(NW)
Whoever wins NW becomes the winner

If Tinubu wins NW,

- he would have a national spread of 25% in 24 states
- he would have the highest votes with a 2 million difference from his runner-up.

If Atiku wins NW, he would have the 24% national spread but won't have the highest votes and the election will go to rerun.

Conclusion.

Tinubu will win NW, and there won't be a need for a rerun

Brendaniel:
You people are very funny, reputable organizations did polls on the street and online and declared Peter Obi winner more than 3 times, you will now sit down in your house and be doing imaginary calculations to declare your own winner.... Continue because we both know that.....

Nigerians have chosen President Peter Obi(GCFR)

Ttalk:
LP
Obi has SE in the kitty and SS as a support base

APC
Tinubu has SW in the bag and NC as backup

PDP
Atiku has NE as a voting strength and ?? as a support base.

Leaving NW as the determinant of the presidential election.

Since NW has the highest voting strength and there's the Kwankwanso factor to reduce the % the other 3 major candidates can take from NW, then the voting % remaining after removing Kwakwaso votes will still be greater than the voting strength of the SE.

Then the winner of NW will be the winner of the election.

Let us now consider the strength of Obi, Tinubu, and Atiku in the NW.

Obi
Obi has no influence at all to muster 15% in the NW so he is out of the game.

Atiku
Atiku's influence in the NW comes from religious and ethnic factors, which would make him perform well in the NW.
However, many factors would equally reduce his performance in that region. Those factors will make him lose to his closest rival Tinubu in that region.

Tinubu
This is the region where APC has 6 governors, the highest number of Senators, and HoR members with structure in every local government.

This is also the region of the incumbent that benefited hugely in infrastructure and human empowerment, this region and its people benefiting from the present government would not allow their source of income close, interest is paramount in politics above religion and tribe, and for this reason, Tinubu will edge Atiku in NW and will become the overall winner.

SECOND POSITION BY REGION

Obi
Nil

Atiku
SW & SS

Tinubu
NE

Final Analysis

Obi
1st SE
1 St SS
2nd Nil

Atiku
1st NE
2nd SS
2nd SW

Tinubu
1st SW
1st NC
2nd NE

(NW)
Whoever wins NW becomes the winner

If Tinubu wins NW,

- he would have a national spread of 25% in 24 states
- he would have the highest votes with a 2 million difference from his runner-up.

If Atiku wins NW, he would have the 24% national spread but won't have the highest votes and the election will go to rerun.

Conclusion.

Tinubu will win NW, and there won't be a need for a rerun

Asgard13:
A Yoruba man will sit in his ikire Abi ogbomosho home and be typing out hallucinations

Aside zamfara and maybe Niger

Tinubu won’t see any state in Northwest to win

Counting on Apc governors is like Gej counting on muazu..to win 2015

Wetin we know

4 days to go..

Tinubu must contest!
Must!


Power to the people
North 2023

E too clear

Mynd44:
Niger is not North West

Seems you are the one with limited knowledge

Ttalk:
LP
Obi has SE in the kitty and SS as a support base

APC
Tinubu has SW in the bag and NC as backup

PDP
Atiku has NE as a voting strength and ?? as a support base.

Leaving NW as the determinant of the presidential election.

Since NW has the highest voting strength and there's the Kwankwanso factor to reduce the % the other 3 major candidates can take from NW, then the voting % remaining after removing Kwakwaso votes will still be greater than the voting strength of the SE.

Then the winner of NW will be the winner of the election.

Let us now consider the strength of Obi, Tinubu, and Atiku in the NW.

Obi
Obi has no influence at all to muster 15% in the NW so he is out of the game.

Atiku
Atiku's influence in the NW comes from religious and ethnic factors, which would make him perform well in the NW.
However, many factors would equally reduce his performance in that region. Those factors will make him lose to his closest rival Tinubu in that region.

Tinubu
This is the region where APC has 6 governors, the highest number of Senators, and HoR members with structure in every local government.

This is also the region of the incumbent that benefited hugely in infrastructure and human empowerment, this region and its people benefiting from the present government would not allow their source of income close, interest is paramount in politics above religion and tribe, and for this reason, Tinubu will edge Atiku in NW and will become the overall winner.

SECOND POSITION BY REGION

Obi
Nil

Atiku
SW & SS

Tinubu
NE

Final Analysis

Obi
1st SE
1 St SS
2nd Nil

Atiku
1st NE
2nd SS
2nd SW

Tinubu
1st SW
1st NC
2nd NE

(NW)
Whoever wins NW becomes the winner

If Tinubu wins NW,

- he would have a national spread of 25% in 24 states
- he would have the highest votes with a 2 million difference from his runner-up.

If Atiku wins NW, he would have the 24% national spread but won't have the highest votes and the election will go to rerun.

Conclusion.

Tinubu will win NW, and there won't be a need for a rerun

Ttalk:
LP
Obi has SE in the kitty and SS as a support base

APC
Tinubu has SW in the bag and NC as backup

PDP
Atiku has NE as a voting strength and ?? as a support base.

Leaving NW as the determinant of the presidential election.

Since NW has the highest voting strength and there's the Kwankwanso factor to reduce the % the other 3 major candidates can take from NW, then the voting % remaining after removing Kwakwaso votes will still be greater than the voting strength of the SE.

Then the winner of NW will be the winner of the election.

Let us now consider the strength of Obi, Tinubu, and Atiku in the NW.

Obi
Obi has no influence at all to muster 15% in the NW so he is out of the game.

Atiku
Atiku's influence in the NW comes from religious and ethnic factors, which would make him perform well in the NW.
However, many factors would equally reduce his performance in that region. Those factors will make him lose to his closest rival Tinubu in that region.

Tinubu
This is the region where APC has 6 governors, the highest number of Senators, and HoR members with structure in every local government.

This is also the region of the incumbent that benefited hugely in infrastructure and human empowerment, this region and its people benefiting from the present government would not allow their source of income close, interest is paramount in politics above religion and tribe, and for this reason, Tinubu will edge Atiku in NW and will become the overall winner.

SECOND POSITION BY REGION

Obi
Nil

Atiku
SW & SS

Tinubu
NE

Final Analysis

Obi
1st SE
1 St SS
2nd Nil

Atiku
1st NE
2nd SS
2nd SW

Tinubu
1st SW
1st NC
2nd NE

(NW)
Whoever wins NW becomes the winner

If Tinubu wins NW,

- he would have a national spread of 25% in 24 states
- he would have the highest votes with a 2 million difference from his runner-up.

If Atiku wins NW, he would have the 24% national spread but won't have the highest votes and the election will go to rerun.

Conclusion.

Tinubu will win NW, and there won't be a need for a rerun

Asgard13:
Making it clear States Tinubu “ might” win in that axis..
those areas are lump together .. geographically..

Or guess you’ve not travelled wide ..

What’s the difference between niger zamfara kebbi.. and kaduna ..

I know what I mean by what I type ..

Ttalk:
Someone pointed out your error and you are here blabbing. How is Niger state in the same geographical location as Zamfara or Katsina, your shortsightedness na follow come

Asgard13:
Op forget to add .. Nw states are much hit by banditry, and chronic poverty ..

For the very first time in decades .. they very different between an hausa man and Fulani is so glaring.

Tinubu now coming with a kanuri to Northwest.. in a Hausa Fulani enclave

This people really need to understand Nigeria

Asgard13:
What’s the distance from Niger to zamfara from dongoyoro ?

Brendaniel:
You people are very funny, reputable organizations did polls on the street and online and declared Peter Obi winner more than 3 times, you will now sit down in your house and be doing imaginary calculations to declare your own winner.... Continue because we both know that.....

Nigerians have chosen President Peter Obi(GCFR)

Urchinpainer:
You must be high on cow shit to say Tinubu has NC as back up base. With Muslim Muslim ticket? What a joke!

Brendaniel:
You people are very funny, reputable organizations did polls on the street and online and declared Peter Obi winner more than 3 times, you will now sit down in your house and be doing imaginary calculations to declare your own winner.... Continue because we both know that.....

[b]Nigerians Biafra have chosen President Peter Obi(GCFR)[/b]

hegelian:
how can you say tinubu has NC as back up

NC states (Plateau, Kogi, Kwara,Niger,Benue, Nassara, and FCT)...

tinubu will win Kwara with minor gap, might win kogi
Atiku will win Niger state and maybe nassarawa
Obi will win Plateau, Benue and maybe FCT
so pls OP how is tinubu having NC as backup

i however partially agree with your other analysis

Ttalk:
Don't drag dragnet, you erred using the word 'same geographical location

There's nothing that makes Zamfara and Katsina fall in the same geographical location, is it tribes, language, food, topography, or weather?

We are not discussing North and south but rather a State by state and you are using the wrong words and still defending your rubbish.

For your information, I'm right here in the north

Ttalk:
I am in North central, the only place Obi can win is FCT and he has PDP to contend with and it's not so sure for him. Forget any other state in the North Central for Obi including Benue and Plateau state, what you failed to put into cognizance is that the indigenous people of those states are also in the ballot with APC ticket running for Senate and HoR on same day as Presidential election

Brendaniel:
You people are very funny, reputable organizations did polls on the street and online and declared Peter Obi winner more than 3 times, you will now sit down in your house and be doing imaginary calculations to declare your own winner.... Continue because we both know that.....

Nigerians have chosen President Peter Obi(GCFR)

adekolaelect:
But don't forget that those online and street people represent Andrew liver salt popularity of Obi Dati. Let wait and see 5 days count .....