garfield1:


You lie.tinubu will win kwara heavily,kogi and Niger narrowly.obi has plateau and benue.nasarawa will divide

hegelian:


even if this your analysis is tru which is not, it is still not a backup for tinubu....

Hopium:


Tinubu is winning Kwara with 70%+. He's winning Kogi, Niger, Nassarawa, Benue.

Peace!

MikeofAfrica:


Jonathan won in 2011 with Edo and Delta votes after lossing Katsina.

Hence Peter Obi can also win with SE and SS votes if Kwankwaso can sabotage Atiku and Tinubu in NW.

MikeofAfrica:


In 2019, many youths and Igbos in Lagos did not bother to vote but Buhari/ Osinbajo with the full support of Tinubu struggled to defeat Atiku / Obi in Lagos with less than 100, 000 votes.

Many northerners in Lagos that voted for Buhari in 2019 are now with either Atiku or Kwankwaso. The youths are behind Obi. The non-indigenes from SE & SS that constitute more than 40% of Lagos population are behind Obi.

Believe me, without manipulation, it will take a miracle for Tinubu to win Lagos. Even with the crisis of Lagos PDP, Tinubu has failed to silence the party in Lagos during the presidential elections. Tinubu is not popular in Lagos but has been using touts and rigging to keep the state under his control.

hegelian:


you are funny bros.. this same kwara im in?? 70% plus?? how he wan take win am.. even incubent gov is not sure of 40% yet... kwara vote will be so balkanizeed en but then tinubu should win but not with a wide margin, mayb 40 to 45% maximum and thats me being extremely pro tinubu

Brendaniel:


Bloomberg, ANAP and 4 other polls are fake? Like I said you guys are very funny and don't pay attention to details....

So if it was so easy to conduct such polls with such reputable firms and bribe them, why hasn't PDP and APC bribed any reputable firm like bloomberg for theirs or do you think they will not like a reputable firm like bloomberg to poll them victorious?

You guys are very funny.... anyway....

Nigerians have chosen President Peter Obi(GCFR)

Ttalk:
LP
Obi has SE in the kitty and SS as a support base

APC
Tinubu has SW in the bag and NC as backup

PDP
Atiku has NE as a voting strength and ?? as a support base.

Leaving NW as the determinant of the presidential election.

Since NW has the highest voting strength and there's the Kwankwanso factor to reduce the % the other 3 major candidates can take from NW, then the voting % remaining after removing Kwakwaso votes will still be greater than the voting strength of the SE.

Then the winner of NW will be the winner of the election.

Let us now consider the strength of Obi, Tinubu, and Atiku in the NW.

Obi
Obi has no influence at all to muster 15% in the NW so he is out of the game.

Atiku
Atiku's influence in the NW comes from religious and ethnic factors, which would make him perform well in the NW.
However, many factors would equally reduce his performance in that region. Those factors will make him lose to his closest rival Tinubu in that region.

Tinubu
This is the region where APC has 6 governors, the highest number of Senators, and HoR members with structure in every local government.

This is also the region of the incumbent that benefited hugely in infrastructure and human empowerment, this region and its people benefiting from the present government would not allow their source of income close, interest is paramount in politics above religion and tribe, and for this reason, Tinubu will edge Atiku in NW and will become the overall winner.

SECOND POSITION BY REGION

Obi
Nil

Atiku
SW & SS

Tinubu
NE

Final Analysis

Obi
1st SE
1 St SS
2nd Nil

Atiku
1st NE
2nd SS
2nd SW

Tinubu
1st SW
1st NC
2nd NE

(NW)
Whoever wins NW becomes the winner

If Tinubu wins NW,

- he would have a national spread of 25% in 24 states
- he would have the highest votes with a 2 million difference from his runner-up.

If Atiku wins NW, he would have the 24% national spread but won't have the highest votes and the election will go to runoff

Conclusion.

Tinubu will win NW, and there won't be a need for a runoff

highchief1:
really?so pdp will Kebbi?or u think Nigeria now has 18 states.can u list the states and capital for us again.

Hopium:


Tinubu will win the entire NW bar Sokoto. Him and AA go drag that one.

Peace!

Ttalk:
LP
Obi has SE in the kitty and SS as a support base

APC
Tinubu has SW in the bag and NC as backup

PDP
Atiku has NE as a voting strength and ?? as a support base.

Leaving NW as the determinant of the presidential election.

Since NW has the highest voting strength and there's the Kwankwanso factor to reduce the % the other 3 major candidates can take from NW, then the voting % remaining after removing Kwakwaso votes will still be greater than the voting strength of the SE.

Then the winner of NW will be the winner of the election.

Let us now consider the strength of Obi, Tinubu, and Atiku in the NW.

Obi
Obi has no influence at all to muster 15% in the NW so he is out of the game.

Atiku
Atiku's influence in the NW comes from religious and ethnic factors, which would make him perform well in the NW.
However, many factors would equally reduce his performance in that region. Those factors will make him lose to his closest rival Tinubu in that region.

Tinubu
This is the region where APC has 6 governors, the highest number of Senators, and HoR members with structure in every local government.

This is also the region of the incumbent that benefited hugely in infrastructure and human empowerment, this region and its people benefiting from the present government would not allow their source of income close, interest is paramount in politics above religion and tribe, and for this reason, Tinubu will edge Atiku in NW and will become the overall winner.

SECOND POSITION BY REGION

Obi
Nil

Atiku
SW & SS

Tinubu
NE

Final Analysis

Obi
1st SE
1 St SS
2nd Nil

Atiku
1st NE
2nd SS
2nd SW

Tinubu
1st SW
1st NC
2nd NE

(NW)
Whoever wins NW becomes the winner

If Tinubu wins NW,

- he would have a national spread of 25% in 24 states
- he would have the highest votes with a 2 million difference from his runner-up.

If Atiku wins NW, he would have the 24% national spread but won't have the highest votes and the election will go to runoff

Conclusion.

Tinubu will win NW, and there won't be a need for a runoff

garfield1:


You lie.tinubu will win kwara heavily,kogi and Niger narrowly.obi has plateau and benue.nasarawa will divide

Novarisammy2:



so what you are trying to say is that Benue and plateau state that has always gone PDP way since 1999 will suddenly swing to APC?

clap for urself

CapitalCee:


Lol. It seems you haven't had the memo about Sokoto.

Atiku wont win a single state in NW

CapitalCee:


Lol. It seems you haven't had the memo about Sokoto.

Atiku wont win a single state in NW

garfield1:


The current gov was elected in 2015 under apc though he defected from pdp. the leaders of pdp are muazu aliyu and zainab kure.muazu and kure are always in abuja,they have never been strong at the grassroot.muazu was a civil servant before obj imposed him.the only strong people person pdp has is kantigi and last he threatened people to vote him to show you that there's a problem....
They were two reruns in Niger where apc supported apga to defeat pdp,that is to show you how strong apc is.dont forget jagaban title is from Niger.if you say atiku will win sokoto or katsina,I'll not argue.buhari won atiku narrowly in sokoto and apc has lost too much strength to pdp in katsina but Niger,no way

Troublemaker111:
Carry your salary come bet am if na ur father born you To stop Atiku in NW will need Kwankwaso to declare for Asiwaju then Atiku strength will be reduced

highchief1:
una don come again.Obi cannot win south south.even his south east wil be battle ground.

highchief1:
really?so pdp will Kebbi?or u think Nigeria now has 18 states.can u list the states and capital for us again.

Ttalk:


I quite agree with you.

I want pundits to pay attention to Kano's vote in particular from NW.

Kano is a strong political factor in national politics and it seems political opinion is being shaped in that area which spread and determines the outcome of election in the NW.

Tinubu knows this and had worked so much since 2015 to win the heart of Kano politicians.

I won't be surprised if Tinubu gets a clear win in Kano ahead of Kwakwaso, and if that happens, APC will likely clear the entire NW.

One of the noises that would rent the air from our Obidient brothers will be the cry of rigging. They have failed to pay attention to details in politics and have allowed emotion to rule their judgment. They are going to be bitterly hurt by the outcome of the election

CapitalCee:


Lol. It seems you haven't had the memo about Sokoto.

Atiku wont win a single state in NW

Ttalk:


I quite agree with you.

I want pundits to pay attention to Kano's vote in particular from NW.

Kano is a strong political factor in national politics and it seems political opinion is being shaped in that area which spread and determines the outcome of election in the NW.

Tinubu knows this and had worked so much since 2015 to win the heart of Kano politicians.

I won't be surprised if Tinubu gets a clear win in Kano ahead of Kwakwaso, and if that happens, APC will likely clear the entire NW.

One of the noises that would rent the air from our Obidient brothers will be the cry of rigging. They have failed to pay attention to details in politics and have allowed emotion to rule their judgment. They are going to be bitterly hurt by the outcome of the election

kcnwaigbo:

There were never strong at the grassroots yet they ruled Niger for 16 years

Hopium:


I just wan give him supporters small hope.

I know Wamakko don finish assignment for Asiwaju.

Ttalk:


I pity your ignorance

Asgard13:


In core northwest.. kebbi jigawa sokoto kastina is going Pdp

Kebbi at worst 50/50 between Pdp and Apc ..

Kaduna state is all Pdp ..elrufai don’t have choice on that.. kaduna north is with Atiku..south is divided between Atiku and Obi..

Zamfara is the only state Apc might win because of sharia .. and Pdp will still mark up to 35% on it
No need to book mark it.It’s far from truth
Bookmark this

MikeofAfrica:


Even El-Rufai who hates Peter Obi with passion, confessed recently that Obi will likely win SS.

Do you understand Nigeria politics more than El- Rufai?

CapitalCee:



My brother, the election is done and dusted. Kwankwaso is more interested in the Kano governorship seat, not the presidency. The Islamic clerics have endorsed Tinubu, Kwankwaso is secretly working for Tinubu. Now the banger is that Buhari's broadcast both in English and Hausa, the northern Buahari supporters will come out en mass to vote Tinubu. Thats why I am tempted to give Bauchi to Tinubu.

In Kano PDP is dead as in dead, even if Kwankwaso is actively contesting. PDP will witness a heavy defeat in Kano. It will be NNPP 1m+, APC 1m+, PDP 300k.
Dont listen to all these dumb Obidients, they no sabi anything

MikeofAfrica:


It is a fact that Jonathan won in 2011 after losing NW to Buhari.

Hence I think you are the ignorant one here.

drlateef:




You are talking nonsense. We are trained in statistics and research methodology. They are all unreliable polls. They have plenty of flaws. And they do not reflect reality on ground.