MikeofAfrica:


The issue is that you don't understand the dynamics of northern politics. Northerners vote base on tribal and religion sentiments. They also vote base on the personality on the ballot.

Buhari was invincible in NW/ NE because of these three factors. He has no party structure in 2011 yet he got 12 million votes in the north. Party structure only strengthens his popularity in the region.

With Tinubu, he is behind Atiku and Kwankwaso in the three factors that I mentioned. Hence he is solely depending on party structure and Buhari endorsement to win the north.

Atiku will win Jigawa, Sokoto and Katsina convincingly. He got over 600,000 votes in Kaduna against Buhari. If not for Peter Obi popularity in southern Kaduna, he would have had a landslide in Kaduna.

Ganduje is not an ally of Tinubu. His friendship with Tinubu is similar to Tambuwal friendship with Wike. He is following Tinubu around because he knew from the onset that Tinubu will likely get the APC ticket.

If the election goes into a runoff between Atiku and Tinubu, I can bet you that Ganduje will deliver Kano to Atiku because Atiku will then be the clear favorite .

MikeofAfrica:


The issue is that you don't understand the dynamics of northern politics. Northerners vote base on tribal and religion sentiments. They also vote base on the personality on the ballot.

Buhari was invincible in NW/ NE because of these three factors. He has no party structure in 2011 yet he got 12 million votes in the north. Party structure only strengthens his popularity in the region.

With Tinubu, he is behind Atiku and Kwankwaso in the three factors that I mentioned. Hence he is solely depending on party structure and Buhari endorsement to win the north.

Atiku will win Jigawa, Sokoto and Katsina convincingly. He got over 600,000 votes in Kaduna against Buhari. If not for Peter Obi popularity in southern Kaduna, he would have had a landslide in Kaduna.

Ganduje is not an ally of Tinubu. His friendship with Tinubu is similar to Tambuwal friendship with Wike. He is following Tinubu around because he knew from the onset that Tinubu will likely get the APC ticket.

If the election goes into a runoff between Atiku and Tinubu, I can bet you that Ganduje will deliver Kano to Atiku because Atiku will then be the clear favorite .

Ttalk:
LP
Obi has SE in the kitty and SS as a support base

APC
Tinubu has SW in the bag and NC as backup

PDP
Atiku has NE as a voting strength and ?? as a support base.

Leaving NW as the determinant of the presidential election.

Since NW has the highest voting strength and there's the Kwankwanso factor to reduce the % the other 3 major candidates can take from NW, then the voting % remaining after removing Kwakwaso votes will still be greater than the voting strength of the SE.

Then the winner of NW will be the winner of the election.

Let us now consider the strength of Obi, Tinubu, and Atiku in the NW.

Obi
Obi has no influence at all to muster 15% in the NW so he is out of the game.

Atiku
Atiku's influence in the NW comes from religious and ethnic factors, which would make him perform well in the NW.
However, many factors would equally reduce his performance in that region. Those factors will make him lose to his closest rival Tinubu in that region.

Tinubu
This is the region where APC has 6 governors, the highest number of Senators, and HoR members with structure in every local government.

This is also the region of the incumbent that benefited hugely in infrastructure and human empowerment, this region and its people benefiting from the present government would not allow their source of income close, interest is paramount in politics above religion and tribe, and for this reason, Tinubu will edge Atiku in NW and will become the overall winner.

SECOND POSITION BY REGION

Obi
Nil

Atiku
SW & SS

Tinubu
NE

Final Analysis

Obi
1st SE
1 St SS
2nd Nil

Atiku
1st NE
2nd SS
2nd SW

Tinubu
1st SW
1st NC
2nd NE

(NW)
Whoever wins NW becomes the winner

If Tinubu wins NW,

- he would have a national spread of 25% in 24 states
- he would have the highest votes with a 2 million difference from his runner-up.

If Atiku wins NW, he would have the 24% national spread but won't have the highest votes and the election will go to runoff

Conclusion.

Tinubu will win NW, and there won't be a need for a runoff

snapshot:
Small pikin analysis

MikeofAfrica:


The issue is that you don't understand the dynamics of northern politics. Northerners vote base on tribal and religion sentiments. They also vote base on the personality on the ballot.

Buhari was invincible in NW/ NE because of these three factors. He has no party structure in 2011 yet he got 12 million votes in the north. Party structure only strengthens his popularity in the region.

With Tinubu, he is behind Atiku and Kwankwaso in the three factors that I mentioned. Hence he is solely depending on party structure and Buhari endorsement to win the north.

Atiku will win Jigawa, Sokoto and Katsina convincingly. He got over 600,000 votes in Kaduna against Buhari. If not for Peter Obi popularity in southern Kaduna, he would have had a landslide in Kaduna.

Ganduje is not an ally of Tinubu. His friendship with Tinubu is similar to Tambuwal friendship with Wike. He is following Tinubu around because he knew from the onset that Tinubu will likely get the APC ticket.

If the election goes into a runoff between Atiku and Tinubu, I can bet you that Ganduje will deliver Kano to Atiku because Atiku will then be the clear favorite .

senatordave1:


Atiku can only win any northern state narrowly apart from Adamawa.I have conceded sokoto to him ever since but his winning margin will be less than 100k..katsina still looks 50% 50 same as jigawa..just as obi is countering him in kaduna,kwankwaso is making the contest tighter for atiku
While atiku is above tinubu on tribal grounds,tinubu best him on religious grounds.the mm ticket is attractive to most fanatic muslims.they may want power to remain in north but the prospects of mm ticket and tinubu health makes them compromise.atiku is too religiously liberal and his vp is offerlnsive to core north..
Look at the history of the north,they usually flock around or rally around leaders who are conservative,close to the talakawas,simple minded,religiously fanatic and pro sharia.look at Dan fodio,a religious radical,look at shehu yaradua conservative and simple natured and incorrupt.look at maitama sule,ahmadu bello,aminu kano and now buhari.all of them are fulanis from nw.the only one that managed to have cult following outside nw was waziri Ibrahim a kanuri.atiku does not have any of these attributes,he is from Adamawa that is banza bakwai,diluted by Christians.look at kwankwaso with a cult following,highly religious and close to the poor and a fulani prince.isa pantami has a cult following in gombe because of his religious radicalism.el rufai is respected in nw because of his anti Christian stance.look at educated emir lamido is,saraki,dangote etc.they dont command followership because they are too liberal.same applies to atiku.

Ask yourself why atiku who started politics since 1990 doesnt have any following but buhari who started in 2002 has.even kwankwaso self.it is because atiku is not extreme.he is like tofa,he will either win the north narrowly or lose.

Ganduje is an ally to tinubu.his son is married to late ajimobi's daughter so he will protect tinubu afterall you claimed murtala garo atiku in-law will fight for him.gortinuatelt for tinubu,he is surrounded by age long allies,friends and loyalist from wayback.he never abandons his loyalists.on the other hand,atiku is surrounded by fair weather friends who are not loyalists.people like ben obi,dokpesi cannot deliver for him.tambuwal,saraki,omokri etc are there for their personal interests and won't stake their neck for him.so tinubu is less likely to be betrayed than atiku who abandons his loyalists after elections.he only looks for them during elections and believes in the power of money.tinubu will best him

Brendaniel:


You people are very funny, reputable organizations did polls on the street and online and declared Peter Obi winner more than 3 times, you will now sit down in your house and be doing imaginary calculations to declare your own winner.... Continue because we both know that.....

Nigerians have chosen President Peter Obi(GCFR)

christistruth01:



Biafrans you mean

Brendaniel:


IPOB have chosen President Peter Obi(GCFR).,.,.,

Ttalk:


Settled

Brendaniel:


Nigerians have chosen President Peter Obi(GCFR)....

Ttalk:


While people are putting finishing touches to their campaign you are here shouting IPOB have endorsed Obi, just dey there dey play

Brendaniel:



Nigerians have chosen President Peter Obi(GCFR)

Digriz:
urchin analysis.

Asgard13:
A Yoruba man will sit in his ikire Abi ogbomosho home and be typing out hallucinations

Aside zamfara and maybe Niger

Tinubu won’t see any state in Northwest to win

Counting on Apc governors is like Gej counting on muazu..to win 2015

Wetin we know

4 days to go..

Tinubu must contest!
Must!


Power to the people
North 2023

E too clear