mercylicious:
Why is trade alert being delayed? Sometimes, my alert comes two days later.
This delay isn't good for ppl like me. I set my trap, didn't know when it was filled. Was so busy for itrade, only to remember abt the MKT by 2:30. No Jo for me today and that's very dangerous for me in this bear.

sister i am happy for you o.people who JI is still having their fingers burnt and you are talking of JO.i have taken a look in all the stocks and discovered that anyone who is JO at this time is loosing much.Are you JO to re-arrange your portfolio or you are JO to make profit.pls in case it is profit pls tell me the stock so i can put my eyes on it.thank you.

PETERiCHY:
@ Locodemy instead of January invest in sound stocks between Dec 22nd and 24th. Thank me later.

What about the November bull you foresaw?

Manonamission:
The fight for the soul of FCMB. Tomorrow is another day.

The market is being unfair to this stock sha... Investors' negative sentiment towards this stock no get part 2. FCMB for don reach 50 kobo if not for the market makers or whoever dey struggle with the supposed free fall of the price.

9free:

Am enjoying it oooooo.......more than the dusty whirlwind of Dubia.

DNT worry I will join you during the festive period to enjoy the CHANJI

Born2berich:
I concur... There are still other viable means to earn extra cash...I am currently working on how to start up another business soon. Right now, am totally liquid and waiting for the bears.

Chai, everybody dey wait for bulls and some people dey wait for more bears. He he he, interesting market. Make ASI just reach zero make everybody rest

Elai147:


What about the November bull you foresaw?

Well thats if only you will rack ur brain and open your eyes to see opportunities.

I have said this before and let me repeat it again i believe this an intelligent forum where people come to gather Infos then go into their closet and try as much as possible to translate it into money.

And for those waiting to be spoonfeed with success tips will always be disappointed bcuz this not a combine business forum

God that's created the heavens and the earth bears me witness I bail out FLOURMILL @ N21:88 when i saw the released result pushed it N23 and it couldn't go any further my instinct told me to sell and I pulled the trigger on 4th NOV.

Today If i want i can acquire more units from the proceeds I made.

On a last note for those after others peoples portfolio I will advice you get yourselves engaged in something meaningful because that act is like where someone is drinking poison while expecting anyother person to die

Thank you.

*ThE OcToPuS *

currentprice:

ihedioramma:

dadem:

Tjohn1:

Tumbum Tumbum Analysis

PETERiCHY:


Well thats if only you will rack ur brain and open your eyes to see opportunities.

I have said this before and let me repeat it again i believe this an intelligent forum where people come to gather Infos then go into their closet and try as much as possible to translate it into money.

And for those waiting to be spoonfeed with success tips will always be disappointed bcuz this not a combine business forum

God that's created the heavens and the earth bears me witness I bail out FLOURMILL @ N21:88 when i saw the released result pushed it N23 and it couldn't go any further my instinct told me to sell and I pulled the trigger on 4th NOV.

Today If i want i can acquire more units from the proceeds I made.

On a last note for those after others peoples portfolio I will advice you get yourselves engaged in something meaningful because that act is like where someone is drinking poison while expecting anyother person to die

Thank you.

*ThE OcToPuS *

how much did you buy your flour mill and when?

Elai147:


Chai, everybody dey wait for bulls and some people dey wait for more bears. He he he, interesting market. Make ASI just reach zero make everybody rest

Bulls for this time?..Anybody in the market now is likely to get his or her hands burnt unless you have a phd in JIJO like oga passwelle and madam mercy. I want to make christmas money so i am waiting patiently.

locodemy:


Oga m.i am equally interested in buying fbnh.there is no difference between fbn and other bank stocks.fbn can not move in price now leaving the other banks behind.banks like fidelity,uba will also join the race.As for now the whole stocks will remain battered till january.i can bet that fbn will trade around 5.00 till january so i am advicing everyone including myself to trade cautiously.Time for the bull will soon come but not now.At this time,market is for gamblers and any bull you see now will only last for two or three days then it will come back to its actual position.

There are businesses one can put money now and smile in this xmas period.Businesses like tokunbo lcd tv sales,quality phone sets,xmas lights and knock outs,clothes of all kinds etc.my self have invested my #500k in tv biz last week.i have sold about 10 sets with good profits and will finish all before xmas.

i will join the market by january.

You wan join the lorry when we don already move.


Okay naa.


Observing in full HD.

Intendy:

how much did you buy your flour mill and when?

I boarded @ N20:45 on 10th Sept a day after the JP MORGAN brouhaha.

My only stalk on NSE now is FBN which I got in @ N4:98 on 4th of this month.

Note:This not a buy recommendation

CC. portfolio checkers and monitors association.

9free:



Pepper soup + Drinks + 10K + Luck + regret. Guy, this na recipe for disaster!
The risk much oh. Make I stick with my tesere units of FBNH and Flourmills.

PETERiCHY:


I boarded @ N20:45 on 10th Sept a day after the JP MORGAN brouhaha.

My only stalk on NSE now is FBN which I got in @ N4:98 on 4th of this month.

Note:This not a buy recommendation

CC. portfolio checkers and monitors association.

sorry brother i am not among those monitoring you o.if it happens that fbn goes down to #4.50 tomorrow,i hope you will not tell us that you bought at#4.98 and sold at #5.50.

Disclosure:i have taken note of your purchased price waiting to hear your selling price soon.

PETERiCHY:

I boarded @ N20:45 on 10th Sept a day after the JP MORGAN brouhaha.
My only stalk on NSE now is FBN which I got in @ N4:98 on 4th of this month.
Note:This not a buy recommendation
CC. portfolio checkers and monitors association.

Nice next question is number of unit sold

This wonderfully written treatise by Profesor Charles Soludo on the state of the economy,Buharinomics and the way forward - "Can A New Buharinomics Save Nigeria?"

You can find the article on http://linkis.com/saharareporters.com/PtNLU

I must warn its a very long piece but a very good read - less of politics and pure economics!

After reading, I downgraded my investment options from "ready to BUY" to "HOLD".

Elai147:


The market is being unfair to this stock sha... Investors' negative sentiment towards this stock no get part 2. FCMB for don reach 50 kobo if not for the market makers or whoever dey struggle with the supposed free fall of the price.

I have got my eyes on Skye, FCMB and Fidelity in the banking sector. Dangsugar and Transcorp(this one carries a huge BUT.......at lowest price possible. It's a beneficiary of favourable govt policies in the Agric sector but result is not encouraging)
The Market makers for Fidelity don't want it to sell below 1.33, keeping the support at N1.39. Considering the technicals (and not fundamentals) of the market at this period, Fidelity should sell below N1.33. A price of N1.15-N1.20 will be good for me.
FCMB is witnessing new lows not seen this year. Investors are probably apprehensive of the delayed Q3 result. Bought more at N1.79 today.
Skye is a stock some might not understand. Check supply on a daily basis and you would get my point. Fear of dilution is unfounded (well, based on my investment objective).
Basically, I watch out for extremely/unjustifiably/unnecessarily battered stocks during a bear. They give the most returns during a bull. My goal is to buy at prices reached (or even lower) at about the previous period when ASI touched its lowest. I do not believe that the ASI would go lower than the 27,585.26 reached on 13/02/2015. I am willing to wait till March/April when I assume the ASI will peak for 2016. I consider this one of the safest and less stressful strategy of investing, especially for busy folks who ain't ready for monitoring daily prices.

According to Rencap, the NSE ASI will bottom out in January. The final decision is left to the portfolio owner whether to buy good stocks at seemingly attractive prices or to go wait when ASI bottoms out.
However, I noticed some stocks don't strictly follow the ASI movement while others are like a Siamese twin to the ASI. For the former, the lowest they will sell won't coincide with when ASI bottoms.

Disclosure: I have another High-risk portfolio that requires a different strategy o. Nah JIJO,JOJI every thing join. Pardon my TT analysis. Not a recommendation to buy.

Warning: This long post is strictly for the matured mind.

Megainvest's guide to probabilistic stock picking for long term investors.

There are many strategies for stock picking. This is an attempt to share with you a quasi-scientific approach which I have developed and applied.

A basic understanding of fundamental analysis, technical analysis, business risk, micro and macro economic factors is required.

This approach involves quantifying the overall probability of a stock to produce a particular target yield. It is based on some factors that can influence the price of a stock. These include:

1. Dividend Yield
A stock that pays dividends consistently over a period of time eg 5 years has a high probability of paying a dividend in the near future if fundamentals remain right.
A second and more important aspect to this is the potential dividend yield itself ie historical value of dividend paid/current stock price expressed in%. A dividend yield of over 10% based on current market price can be considered as good.

By this method, a stock can be given a score to represent the probability of the stock to produce a particular yield if you buy the stock at current price.

2. Historical Modal High and Low prices. (aka: key supports and resistances)

This is a form of technical analysis. By examining a stock's price chart, you can estimate stock's historical high and low prices. You can put a figure to the ratio of the current price of the stock to its key historical low and high prices. This can represent the probability of the stock to gain or lose in price above or below a certain %.

This is where you also account for risk. What will be the price if there were to be a terrible market crash? What is the price now compared to the potential crash price? This may not be an exact science. But you can use it to weight your risk.

3. Fundamentals: EPS, ROE, PE Ratio, Rising profits and revenues.
This is a very important and necessary factor that can indicate how likely it is for the stock price to perform at least up to its historical price over the last few years. You can use a company's Revenue and PAT growth figures as a primary measure of this. You can decide to rank a company with double digit growth (ie >10%) as one with high upside probability. Remember that you need to watch out for all the other fundamental indices ie ROE, EPS etc. This is the only way you can take into account the overall supply and demand variables including the effect of free float, dilution due to bonuses, rights issues etc.

4. Micro and macro economic factors.
This is also another factor which can affect the probability of a stock to continue to produce positive yields. Note that major macroeconomic shifts can permanently affect a stock's price. I use this to set a time band for my price analysis. For example, it is unlikely for me to use pre-2008 prices for my technical analysis. I will most likely use it to estimate how resilient a stock can be in the event of a crash. You also need to watch out for macro economic triggers that can be lurking in the horizon.

There are many other factors but in summary, throw all of these probabilities into the mix and you can discover some very juicy stocks. Note that this kind of model will fail woefully on some stocks like Betaglass and FO. It is not intended to be a prophet.

I created a personal stock pick model using all of these factors above and UBCAP came top of the pack. One major reason is that dividend yield is the strongest variable in my model.

I hope someone can borrow an idea or 2 from this. I will be happy to get your ideas on how I can improve this model.

Happy investing.

.

PETERiCHY:
@ Locodemy instead of January invest in sound stocks between Dec 22nd and 24th. Thank me later.

Oga Peterrichy....Like which ones are 3 sound stocks to buy for good ROI?

[quote author=Manonamission post=40200949]

I have got my eyes on Skye, FCMB and Fidelity in the banking sector. Dangsugar and Transcorp(this one carries a huge BUT.......at lowest price possible. It's a beneficiary of favourable govt policies in the Agric sector but result is not encouraging)
The Market makers for Fidelity don't want it to sell below 1.33, keeping the support at N1.39. Considering the technicals (and not fundamentals) of the market at this period, Fidelity should sell below N1.33. A price of N1.15-N1.20 will be good for me.
FCMB is witnessing new lows not seen this year. Investors are probably apprehensive of the delayed Q3 result. Bought more at N1.79 today.
Skye is a stock some might not understand. Check supply on a daily basis and you would get my point. Fear of dilution is unfounded (well, based on my investment objective).
Basically, I watch out for extremely/unjustifiably/unnecessarily. they sand you or you want people to buy from you befor it get to #1 and kobo,kobo?

Please what is the final resolution of Skyebank's N4b TSA fine? Are they paying? I have not seen CBN's reaction to their objection.

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/19/oil-traders-prepare-for-next-big-price-drop-in-march-2016.html

Oil traders are preparing for another downward turn in prices by March 2016, market data suggests, as what is expected to be an unusually warm winter dents demand just as Iran's resurgent crude exports hit global markets after sanctions are ended.

Crude futures have already lost around 60 percent of their value since mid-2014 as supply exceeds demand by roughly 0.7 million to 2.5 million barrels per day to create a glut that analysts say will last well into 2016.

Goldman Sachs said on Thursday that there was a substantial risk of a "sharp leg lower" in oil prices.

"Mild winter weather over the coming months could see weak heating demand in the U.S. and Europe," it said. This "would likely be the trigger for adjustments through the physical market, pushing oil prices down to cash costs, which we estimate are likely around $20 per barrel," the bank added.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/oilprices/12006554/Goldman-eyes-20-oil-as-glut-overwhelms-storage-sites.html

“The world is floating in oil. The numbers we are facing now are dreadful," said David Hufton from PVM Group

The world is running out of storage facilities for surging supplies of oil and may soon exhaust tanker space offshore, raising the chances of a violent plunge in crude prices over coming weeks, experts have warned.

Goldman Sachs told clients that the increasing glut of oil on the global market has combined with mild weather from a freak El Nino this winter. The twin-effect could send prices plummeting to $20 a barrel, the so-called ‘cash cost’ that forces drillers to abandon production. “Risks of a sharp leg lower remain elevated,” it said.

Oil has fallen from $110 a barrel early last year and is hovering near $40 for US crude, and $44 for Brent in Europe.

The US investment bank said the overall glut in the commodity markets may take another twelve months to clear. It cited 'RED FLAG’ signals on the Shanghai Future Exchange over recent days. Copper contracts point to “imminent weakening” in China’s ‘old economy’ of heavy industry and construction, it said.