lancee:



Sis mcy56 how body i don dey look for you since ..thought u ve been banned again ..Good to see u here today

oga mi Mende.M welcome back as well

Thank You Sir.

akinssan:

Your sis nko Ya........

Yariya
It's been some times too.
@TradderR hope you're doing fine.
@swilo @dollartex @owoblow .........
Plenty Nsempas don go solo ooooo.
It's well.

@Peterichy how's the waiting at Seplat 150 junction?
Hope say you never sleep for that bus stop cos Seplat closed at 350 xtyday and it's eying 380/400 now.

FCMB sighted at 2
Fidelity trying to do some catch up......sighted at 1.80.....Can it meet up? Only time and market situation can tell.

GTB 24.25........mentioned before that some deep pockets were accumulating at 21, thus dragging the price down.....that they will move it once they're done....

Mcy56:
GTB : Those big guys are at it again...... deliberately dragging the share price back to 21.50 and loading.
Let's see where they'll push the price when they're done this time around.
Someone mentioned that FPIs are not buying, is it locals that are buying those huge volumes, 37M units? Let's wait and see.....

July 20.

Not any form of advice. If you don't take any action that time, take full responsibility for your action if you dive in now.

So Okomu produces Banga palm oil

OBAGADAFFI:
So Okomu produces Banga palm oil

Yes. I knew of 2 and 4 litres anyway

Mcy56:
FCMB sighted at 2
Fidelity trying to do some catch up......sighted at 1.80.....Can it meet up? Only time and market situation can tell.

GTB 24.25........mentioned before that some deep pockets were accumulating at 21, thus dragging the price down.....that they will move it once they're done....

You re right ...Let them get it to 25 /26 +region ..took some profit today..too many forces holding zee back

onegentleguy:


Divide the funds into 3 parts and proceed to allot;
40% in ACCESS and 30% each in UBA and FBNH respectively.

All 3 coys are currently grossly underpriced and should deliver in the near term.

As u win, come back later to show some appreciation.
...I love Nkwobi and a bottle of non-acoholic wine.

Regards

Your quick response is much appreciated sir! Nkwobi and non-alcoholic wine are very much in order! cheers

Mcy56:

As for me, I will go with UBA if it can fall small to around 6.10/6.20.

Many thanks for your response. will keep watch for price in that range. cheers

Mcy56:

Yes. I knew of 2 and 4 litres anyway

Wow I just realised this morning.

It seems some companies are benefiting from the Agirculure local content.

Una no chop my Airtime today .

Till Monday.

Zagee:
Seplat on another +9

Harvestock01:


Neimeth -10%

Jerry59:
UACN to gain over 8%

jideflash:
Una no chop my Airtime today .

Till Monday.

Lol, enjoy the weekend chief

On the UACN investors conference call...

Statement from the MD/CEO of the group, Mr Folasope Babasola Aiyesimoju on the recent partnership with CUSTODIAN inv on the group's subset UPDC Nig Plc;

"Last yr, we indicated the intention to unbundle our interest in UPDC to stakeholders with the key motivation being the differences between UPDC and the rest of our operating segment.
Over the course of implementing the planned unbundling, we entered into discussions with CUSTODIAN, the conclusion of which were checked relative to the proposed unbundling.
The discussions led to UACN and CUSTODIAN executing binding agreements for the latter to acquire a 51% interest in UPDC at a price per share of 82.5k with 85% of the total consideration paid down immediately on closing the deal, and the balance upon certain conditions.
We determined that the transaction with CUSTODIAN presents superior value to the unbundling for 3 primary reasons;

1) UAC crystallizes cash proceeds
2) We achieve our laid down strategic objectives
3) We get to receive units in the UPDC REITS which is profitable, cash generative and with potential future upside.

Also of significance is that UPDC will benefit from the introduction of a strong anchor shareholder which improves its prospect for future value creation, for which UACN will benefit via its retained stake.
As at June 30th, 2020, we carried our stake in UPDC at a value of N17.2 billion. The transaction values our stake in UPDC at N14.4 billion including the defered consideration components. ...but we will also receive units in the UPDC REIT worth N2.5 billion at yesterdays closing price, bringing the whole value to UACN to over N17 billion."


My view:

Prior to the deal, UACN owns about 94% stake in UPDC, while UPDC owns approx 61% stake in UPDC REITS.
Post deal, CUSTODIAN buys up 51% in UPDC, while UACN gets a cash inflow of over 17 billion and also retains the bail of 43% stake.
Given the stipulated sharing formula, UACN and CUSTODIAN shall hold stakes in the REITS at proportions of approx 27.9%[(43/51)x61] and 33.1%[(51/94)x61] respectively.
This proportion shall determine the % sharing of yearly cashflow proceeds of UPDC REITS to UPDC which would drop down to both coys, until the deal is totally consummated.(UACN sells the bal of 43% to CUSTODIAN)
...and when that happens, CUSTODIAN might consider buying out minority shareholders of UPDC given that it would own a 94% stake in total, with just a minot 6% as free float.

Looking at UACN' financial print...

The drop in NPM(net margin) was broadly the result of a material drop in finance income(from STinv) when compared to the corresponding period in 2019.
YtD though, value drive from growth proposition remains intact.
...with the BS showing NCWC in the positive line(CA @ premium to TL), receivables growing at a faster rate than inventry position, a combination of decelerating trade and A/c payables(reflective in NWC days), a much reduced StD(over 3,500bps down Ytd) and zero LtD, I can tell that the group is now very well positioned to laverage on the opportunities ahead.
Elsewhere, the N17 billion inflow will also help improve on the groups existing cash position particularly its FCF which went down as a result of a surge in capex.(CFI in view)

As I've stated here before now, using an appropriate blend of valuation model, which uses an approach that considers all key financial lines and extensively nets off a high risk premium from the assets valuation in lieu of future volatility, my FVE for UACN pegs @ N13.85, drawing from last financial print.
...this is excluding the cash consideration from the partnership deal with CUSTODIAN.
Factor that in, and well, ur guess is already as good as mine.

3 entities... UACN, UPDC and CUSTODIAN.
A dig on their last spate of financial print put side by side with the feasible benefits accrued from the proposed deal and UACN still holds the brightest prospect for us.(risk-reward margin in view)
If I were an investor, I would look to align more of my portfolio in UACN ahead of CUSTODIAN.
...a 70-30 % weighting wouldn't be a bad idea.

With a close possibility of a future delisting(plausible MTO from CUSTODIAN post total consummation of the deal), I have a neutral view on UPDC.
...well, for now !!


CAVEAT: This interpretation and follow-up inference are in view of the financial print as released by the companies. ...it is neither subjective nor conclusive.
Due diligence still applies as always.

My advise: Pls follow ur instinct.

...modified.

onegentleguy:
On the UACN investors conference call...

Statement from the MD/CEO of the group, Mr Folasope Babasola Aiyesimoju on the recent partnership with CUSTODIAN inv on the group's subset UPDC Nig Plc;

"Last yr, we indicated the intention to unbundle our interest in UPDC to stakeholders with the key motivation being the differences between UPDC and the rest of our operating segment.
Over the course of implementing the planned unbundling, we entered into discussions with CUSTODIAN, the conclusion of which were checked relative to the proposed unbundling.
The discussions led to UACN and CUSTODIAN executing binding agreements for the latter to acquire a 51% interest in UPDC at a price per share of 82.5k with 85% of the total consideration paid down immediately on closing the deal, and the balance upon certain conditions.
We determined that the transaction with CUSTODIAN presents superior value to the unbundling for 3 primary reasons;

1) UAC crystallizes cash proceeds
2) We achieve our laid down strategic objectives
3) We get to receive units in the UPDC REITS which is profitable, cash generative and with potential future upside.

Also of significance is that UPDC will benefit from the introduction of a strong anchor shareholder which improves its prospect for future value creation, for which UACN will benefit via its retained stake.
As at June 30th, 2020, we carried our stake in UPDC at a value of N17.2 billion. The transaction values our stake in UPDC at N14.4 billion including the defered consideration components. ...but we will also receive units in the UPDC REIT worth N2.5 billion at yesterdays closing price, bringing the whole value to UACN to over N17 billion."


My view:

Prior to the deal, UACN owns about 94% stake in UPDC, while UPDC owns approx 61% stake in UPDC REITS.
Post deal, CUSTODIAN buys up 51% in UPDC, while UACN retains 43% stake, and also gets a cash inflow of over 17 billion.
Given the stipulated sharing formula, UACN and CUSTODIAN shall hold stakes in the REITS at proportions of approx 27.9%[(43/51)x61] and 33.1%[(51/94)x61] respectively.
This proportion shall determine the % sharing of yearly cashflow proceeds of UPDC REITS to UPDC which would drop down to both coys.
At the current RoR of approx N3B dividends from UPDC reits to UPDC, UACN and CUSTODIAN should get about N1.37B and N1.62B in annual inflow until the deal is totally consummated.(UACN sells the bal of 43% to CUSTODIAN)
...and when that happens, CUSTODIAN might consider buying out minority shareholders of UPDC given that it would own a 94% stake in total, with just a minot 6% as free float.

Looking at UACN' financial print...

The drop in NETT MARGIN was broadly the result of a material drop in finance income(from STinv) when compared to the corresponding period in 2019.
YtD though, value drive from growth proposition remains intact.
...with the BS showing NCWC in the positive line(CA @ premium to TL), receivables growing at a faster rate than inventry position, a combination of decelerating trade and A/c payables(reflective in NWC days), a much reduced StD(over 3,500bps down Ytd) and zero LtD, I can tell that the group is now very well positioned to laverage on opportunities ahead.
Elsewhere, the N17 billion inflow will also help improve on the groups existing cash position particularly its FCF which went down as a result of a surge in capex.(CFI in view)

As I stated here before now, using an appropriate blend of valuation model, which uses an approach that considers all key financial lines and extensively nets off a high risk premium from the assets valuation, in lieu of future volatility, my FVE estimate of UACN pegs @ N13.85, drawing from this financial print.
...this is excluding the consideration of the partnership deal with CUSTODIAN.
Factor that in, and well, ur guess is already as good as mine.

3 entities... UACN, UPDC and CUSTODIAN.
A dig on their last spate of financial print put side by side with the feasible benefits accrued from the proposed deal and UACN still hold the biggest prospect for us.(risk-reward margin in view)
If I were an investor, I would look to align more of my portfolio in UACN ahead of CUSTODIAN.
...a 70-30 % weighting wouldn't be a bad idea.

With a close possibility of a future delisting(plausible MTO from CUSTODIAN post total consummation of the deal), I have a neutral view on UPDC.
...well, for now !!


CAVEAT: This interpretation and follow-up inference are in view of the financial print as released by the company. ...it is neither subjective nor conclusive.
Due diligence still applies as always.

My advise: Pls follow ur instinct.

Thanks for your submission.

The major problem here, is that I don't trust UACN management, they have not been sincere from day one.

I would rather hold UPDC(managed by CUSTODIAN) and If they decide to delist, they will pay me above current market price.

"...Elsewhere, the N17 billion inflow will also help improve on the groups existing cash position particularly its FCF which went down as a result of a surge in capex.(CFI in view)..."
This part got me thinking. Its best they share the money.

OBAGADAFFI:


Thanks for your submission.

The major problem here, is that I don't trust UACN management, they have not been sincere from day one.

I would rather hold UPDC(managed by CUSTODIAN) and If they decide to delist, they will pay me above current market price.

I can only wish u Good luck dear !!
...after all, u are and will always be the CEO of ur portfolio.

If only u know that UACN got a far better deal from this than CUSTODIAN.
If only u knew. ...go do some estimate bro.

Regards

What we want to hear is the portion that belong to US

their new strategy is leaving us today with nothing in the deal.

Who knows tomorrow with dishonest management. Where is Agba!

I

Mpeace:
"...Elsewhere, the N17 billion inflow will also help improve on the groups existing cash position particularly its FCF which went down as a result of a surge in capex.(CFI in view)..."
This part got me thinking. Its best they share the money.

onegentleguy:

Next on the line for me to read shall be another book titiled; "He who laughs last, laughs..."
I believe I should round-up with it before...

It is well.

Sooner or later, I shall receive delivery of the book above.
It's only a matter of time... a small time !!

Salah

Mpeace:
"...Elsewhere, the N17 billion inflow will also help improve on the groups existing cash position particularly its FCF which went down as a result of a surge in capex.(CFI in view)..."
This part got me thinking. Its best they share the money.

Mpeace:
"...Elsewhere, the N17 billion inflow will also help improve on the groups existing cash position particularly its FCF which went down as a result of a surge in capex.(CFI in view)..."
This part got me thinking. Its best they share the money.

Well, that's also possible.(an allotment to shareholders as special dividend)
...however, my basis for investing in UACN is'n't hinged on that at all.

Before some of u will see what I am seeing in that coy, the price would've doubled !!
...it's not the 1st time its happening and won't be the last.
Sometimes it's a good thing for people to have doubts.
...I personally like it, 'cause it supports our quest to strategically accumulate more.

#immensehiddenvalue
#butonlythosewitheagleeyescanseeit

Cheers

onegentleguy:


Well, that's also possible.(an allotment to shareholders as special dividend)
...however, my basis for investing in UACN is'n't hinged on that at all.

Before some of u will see what I am seeing in that coy, the price would've doubled !!
...it's not the 1st time its happening and won't be the last.
Sometimes it's a good thing for people to have doubts.
...I personally like it, 'cause it supports our quest to strategically accumulate more.

#immensehiddenvalue
#butonlythosewitheagleeyescanseeit

Cheers

I’m on this bus... bia driver move this thing

onegentleguy:


I can only wish u Good luck dear !!
...after all, u are and will always be the CEO of ur portfolio.

Regards

I have few units in UACN, but those guys at UACN are not smiling at investors.


Let's watch what will happen to the funds they got

Mpeace:
"...Elsewhere, the N17 billion inflow will also help improve on the groups existing cash position particularly its FCF which went down as a result of a surge in capex.(CFI in view)..."a
This part got me thinking. Its best they share the money.

Where will they get the N17.2 billion from, as at 30th June 2020 that was the value of UACN stake in UPDC.

The cash UACN will get from custodian Investment is roughly N8.9 billion, being 51% of their stake in the company

emmanuelewumi:



Where will they get the N17.2 billion from, as at 30th June 2020 that was the value of UACN stake in UPDC.

The cash UACN will get from custodian Investment is roughly N8.9 billion, being 51% of their stake in the company

We analysed most these stuffs and more in one of the Intl forum I belong to, last night.

That N14.4B is the projected fund that will accrue from the sale of the entire 94% stake of UACN to CUSTODIAN.
...the value is the total expected cashflow from the deal assuming a total divestiture, and not just the 51% stake.
The amount sums up to over N17B when u add the N2.5B in value that UACN shall receive from UPDC via UPDC-REITS.

...a brief;

UPDC has a total OS of 18.56B units
UACN holds 94% of that 18.56B units which is approx 17.45B.
But deal was executed 82.5k per share of UPDC, which computes to a mkt value of N14.4B(0.825x17.45B) ...this is in line with the MD' guide during the conference call that; "The transaction values our stake in UPDC at N14.4 billion including the defered consideration components."
The part about "defered consideration components" should mean that following the consummation of the deal by both parties, CUSTODIAN will take up any cash related asset as well as liability in UPDC, in proportions of their stake/holdings.

However, that 14.4B excludes the expected N2.5B cash flow(from allotment) due to UACN from UPDC via UPDC-REITS.
...when u add that, the face-value of the deal comes to over N17B(precisely N17.9B) ...again, in line with the MD statement; "...but we will also receive units in the UPDC REIT worth N2.5 billion at yesterdays closing price, bringing the whole value to UACN to over N17 billion."

When u can extrapolate the figures by benchmarking the deal against their current financial standings, u'd see that UACN got a better/great deal from this partnership ahead of CUSTODIAN.(risk-reward margin in view)
Again, for now I maintain a neutral view on UPDC given the possibility of delisting in the future.

With what I see in UACN, I no fit shout !!
I have always loved that dude, Mr Time.
...I shall let him do justice to this whole thing when the time of reckoning comes.

It is well.

UPDC has 1.7 billion units of UPDC REIT shares. Paid total dividend of 58k last year, earning a total dividend of about N980 million.

Withholding taxes are not deducted from REITs dividends

With the unbundling of UPDC REIT, custodian will own 867 million units of UPDC REIT shares, UACN will own 731 million units of UPDC REIT, other retail Investors of UPDC will share a total of 102 million units of UPDC REIT shares.

Based on the current 64% share ownership of UPDC REIT by UPDC and outstanding 2.67 billion shares of UPDC REIT

onegentleguy:


Well, that's also possible.(an allotment to shareholders as special dividend)
...however, my basis for investing in UACN is'n't hinged on that at all.

Before some of u will see what I am seeing in that coy, the price would've doubled !!
...it's not the 1st time its happening and won't be the last.
Sometimes it's a good thing for people to have doubts.
...I personally like it, 'cause it supports our quest to strategically accumulate more.

#immensehiddenvalue
#butonlythosewitheagleeyescanseeit

Cheers

Let me post this one last time.
...enough said !!

Selah

onegentleguy:

We analysed most these stuffs and more in one of the Intl forum I belong to, last night.

Oga you like to dey SHALAYE, Just admit this was a wrong call and move on. Everyone who bought because of unbundling has been disappointed shikena. By the time all these your postulation materialize investors would have made more returns from GTB, Access, Wapco, Zenith etc.

Me still believe that investors fate are in the hands of a UACN management that has not proven themselves to care about retail investors. Only the management has collected cash from this deal.

If you support your position with the expected EPS of UACN after this sales then that would have been more robust. But not all these chest beating like you are a director in UACN. There is nothing you are seeing that layman investor no fit see. Wetin I sabi sef.

meine:

Me still believe that investors fate are in the hands of a UACN management that has not proven themselves to care about retail investors.

If you support your position with the expected EPS of UACN after this sales then that would have been more robust. But not all these chest beating like you are a director in UACN. There is nothing you are seeing that layman investor no fit see. Wetin be my own sef.

...Ok oo !!
Sorry, I had to edit and delete some of ur other r*******.
Me I no get strength for any e-fight. ...u can direct ur energy for that elsewhere.
I prefer to argue with facts and figures.

Pls let's just allow time to judge matters in due course.

Regards

onegentleguy:


Let's just allow time to judge matters in due course.
Regards

Which time in particular, se na 6 months ni Abi na 1 year? Is there any special dividend investors will get from the sales? Also What is the future EPS of UACN? You fit clarify these make we end the matter.