₦airaland Forum

Kenya gov need to get out - of many of these sectors. That I agree. And that is why Kenya gov is very rich. They just need to sell. Safaricom alone can clear all commercial loans.

What are VRA liabilities.

Company is valued when you Assets-Liabilities.

Just40:
Good luck ... That I what broke countries do... Ghana was here in 1980 ...
Very soon you'll have to sell Kenya water company
And you'll realize that they are worth nothing.

Anyway, VRA asset are valued around 35 billion dollars

1) Inflation right now is above our target/our liking - 9% - should be 6-7 percent or 5 percent like it was - we are midst of global crisis.

Kshs 650-700 is bit high because right now petrol/oil is expensive - affect cost of electricity (thermal in kenya has 15% of power) and transport
Normally it should be 550-600.
It will come down when Oil price reduces.

2) Egypt is part of COMESA. Their goods enter kenya duty free. We are not afraid of Egypt. We are 2nd in COMESA. We sign Africa free trade because our companies must compete with Egypt and South Africa. Nigeria is closed DANGOTE LAND.
If you were to join COMESA and allow Egyptian goods to come - they will overrun you. Egypt sell cement for 2-3 dollars.

Right now most cement companies have their own clinker.

obaaderemi:
Explain to me why cement is sold for $650- $700 in Kenya. That's above the price in Nigeria. Why are you importing clinkers from Egypt? Any dumbo can produce clinkers in their country.

Opps - we never sold Kenya Wines Agency to Distell South Africa - look like KWAL actually eventually bought South Africa Distell distributorship in kenya. That mean kenya gov is making lots of alcohol and wines.

Distell South Africa owns 26% - and KWAL makes their own wines & spirits - and sell some South African brands

There is almost no sector kenya gov is not involved.

The government owns 72.65 per cent shareholding in Kwal through the Industrial and Commercial Development Corporation (ICDC)


The sale of Kenya Wine Agencies to a South African firm has been put on hold pending the completion of the ongoing parastatal reforms.

A letter to the Privatisation Commission CEO Solomon Kitungu from the State Corporations Advisory Committee - which is overseeing the reforms, orders immediate cancellation of the talks on sale of the company.

“This is, therefore, to bring to your attention the need to put on hold the intended transfer of ICDC shares in Kenya Wine Agencies Limited (Kwal) Holdings EA Ltd to South Africa’s Distell Group Ltd,” reads the letter signed by Ms Jane Mugambi, the secretary of Parastatal Reforms Implementation Committee.

It's not growing as fast as GDP - it been stuck at 60-69 - and as we grow GDP - and reduce borrowing - we will be fine.
70% is about borderline for low middle income country.
Kenya macro-economics are SOLID - little problems that are being corrected.

obaaderemi:
Too sad. Kenya's debt is already 70% of GDP and growing fast.

Are we talking about this VRA or another?

The Volta River Authority (VRA) has successfully turned around the company's fortunes after six years of recording losses, as it made profit of GH¢112.76million in 2021 – with management poised to keep up the momentum

You want to compare VRA - with Safaricom that makes 3 billion dollars in revenue - and 1 billion dollar in Gross Profit? Are you completely nuts? Safaricom at it apex was valued at 18B dollars - more than Dangote.

Kenya gov SOES are literally in every sector.

VRA - would electricity sector

KENGEN - kenya gov sold 30% of it to public - own 70%. This largest energy generator with 10 dams, many geothermal, etc
KPLC - is public owned by gov largely - 50% owned by gov. Main supplier or distributor - 9 million customers.
Ketraco - This supply lines - the main electricity bulk supply - 100% gov
REA - Rural electrification - 100%
GDC - Geothermal development company - 100% gov of kenya

That is just electricity space

Name anything in Kenya - kenya gov has a play - including Hilton hotel, Intercon, name it. Kenya gov owns shares and stakes everywhere - cement, salt, sugar, alcohol, name it. Kenya gov has a play.

During 1990s - when World Bank/IMF pressured countries to privatize - Kenya gov privatized about 200 SOES - but never completely sold out - except very few - they would offer shares max of 49% - retaining control.

Kibaki sold a few - mostly floating 30% shareholding - to finance budget deficit.

Uhuru just got drunk with chinese and eurobond - I think he only sold Kenya Wines Agency to South Africa Distell via private arrangment.

Ruto has promised to sell 6 SOES every year to finance the budget deficit.

Just40:
let me laugh at your crazy rants ...

I won't even go far because Safaricom does not have the same value as VRA .. VRA alone is capable of swallowing all Kenyan SOEs..

Because you want to lie so badly, your write up don't add up... Like I said, your government invest in useless stuff and that is why they are haemorrhaging because all of those things are making huge losses draining your govt.

Buying dollars in the Zoo is like Kenya in 1992

You got to your bank - apply for dollars in Form A - wait forever - unless you're connected fatcat Dangote - if not try the backstreet where dollar to naira is now 900

Nigerians crying over form A - Kenya had infamous Forex Form C

The fact that UK universities are suspending Nigerian students and reporting them to Home Office is a huge concern.A lot of them are genuinely expecting money from Nigeria and this Form A wait is getting out of hand.Why are banks telling them to fill forms and go radio silent�

I'm at the verge of losing my admission
and getting a deportation because of
AccessBank,I initiated my Form A since
23rd August.I have sent them several
emails showing them that my schools
requires the payment or I will be
deported
@myaccessbank

Commercial external debt is now 15% - about 8B dollars out of 40 billion or so external debt.
Kenya debt to gdp is now stuck at t 69 percent.
It's a concern as we should be at 50% - to play safe - though 70% is good for low middle income country.
Another cocern the debt servicing has gone up to 45% - should be ideally 33% - you should not exceed 1/3 of your income paying loans.
Everything else is good in kenya.
Therefore the soveirgn credit ratings will improve.
Those two concerns...debt to gdp & servicing ratio to revenues.

As for Nigeria and Ghana - pretty much all the macro-economic indicators are screaming murder.

GeneralDae:
As of June 2022, external debt constituted about 50% of total public debt, up from 45% as of March 2013. The more expensive commercial debt comprised more than 25% of the external debt as of June 2022.

In real terms, the external debt burden has worsened due to the persistent fall in the value of the Kenya shilling and the economic slump that followed the COVID-19 restrictions.

The worsening overall debt burden has prompted the International Monetary Fund to downgrade the country’s debt risk from moderate to high in 2020 just two years after downgrading it from low to moderate in 2018. The downgrade of a country’s debt risk makes it more expensive for the country to borrow, leaving it with less to spend on other economic programmes.

https://theconversation.com/amp/kenya-has-breached-its-public-debt-ceiling-how-it-got-there-and-what-that-means-190006

Gov job is not invest - it's grow the economy - and tax - and our taxes continue to grow.
When it come to investment - Kenya gov has invested everywhere - and has shareholding in 300 SOES
Safaricom 35% stake alone - is more than all Ghana SOES.
That when market is doing great - at one point Safaricom was approaching 20B dollars - that is 8B dollars - enough to pay off all our commercial external debts.
Kenya has I think 200 SOES it own 100% percent
And another 200 SOES it own some shares.
Kenya gov has shares in almost everything...from hotels....cement..to salt...to name...trading...super markets....it almost everywhere

Just40:
Kenya is broke abd without any profitable ventures to use debt to invest into... Any additional debt is just a death warrant

Borrowing from WB is brilliant if they can give you 3Billion - run for it.
Most of their loan are zero interest and long maturity - 30/50yrs.
Who wouldnt not want to borrow such "free" money.

Unfortunately I doubt the WB can loan us 3 billion.
This is why WB need reforms - and the South Africa/China/Brazil thing - was trying to come up with alternative bank - because US/EU have refused for WB/IMF to be capitalized...so it can respond to development needs better.

This why we have Africa Dev Bank, East Africa Dev Bank and say Asia Dev Bank.

What countries should be very careful with is commercial loans with variable interest like Eurobond or borrowing from say Citibank US.

Interest risk and short maturity risk - that is the problem. If interest rise to 30 percent like now in Ghana - how will gov of Ghana pay - it has to increase taxes 30 percent - impossible - if there is COVID/Ukraine - and you have 4yrs to repay - problems.

Just40:
noise

You have nothing else to say... While your president is telling you he won't borrow... He's busy taking 3 billion from WB

Debt is not paid by exports.
Debt is paid by gov revenues..in form of taxes.
Half that debt - 40B dollars is local debt to be paid in Kshs.
Half that debt - is foreign debt
Only 15% of that debt is commercial - the rest are concessional zero interest debt.

Now how does Kenya pay external debt - with negative trade balance?

We have other sources of forex - KQ airline bring in forex from Nigeria - Kenya subsidiaries operating in region in bring forex - UN in Nairobi alone can bank almost a billion forex - foreign investors in Nairobi stock exchange bring in forex - NGOS operating from Nairobi bring in forex - International companies operating from Nairobi as their HQ to rest of Africa bring in forex.
- Remittance bring in forex.
- Tourist bring in forex

There are many ways to get forex - OPEN UP YOUR ECONOMY - FREELY FLOAT NAIRA - ALLOW FREE INFLOW /OUTFLOW OF CAPITAL(forex)

Nigeria you're in Kenya before 1993 - you'll always struggle with forex - until you reform - allow Naira to devalue - find it base - and find its strength. Remove all forex controls and many windows - Let the forex market work it magic - forex will flow in and out - and it become a Non-issue like Kenya - everyone know they can walkto the bank buy or sell forex anyday

And it also help that we dont import lot of things..and build local industrial capacity.

Conclusion - Kenya have never had any forex shortages - we dont know what black market for forex means - you walk to the bank and get you forex since 1993.

Before that we were like Nigeria. There were forex shortages, you had to be political connected to be sold forex, bla bla. Once we reformed and floated KSHs - and remove all capital controls - forex flows in and flows out.

Kenya always has more than 4 months cover of forex for all imports.

KSHs since 1963 - has stayed stable.

From 1963 to 1993 - it remained at 20shs to dollar.

1993 we had hyper-inflation for six months - it went to 60 Kshs dollars. It was horror. Ghana is gong through it now. And nigeria too.

Then we reigned on - came to 45 then went back to 75

Then for two decades it stayed just there 63 - 85.

Recently rose to 100 - stayed there.

And now 120.

GeneralDae:
Kenya with Tea as their biggest export is having a debt profile of over 80 Billion dollars close to that of Nigeria (100 Billion dollars). Madness.

Maybe one of Ghanian here can help us understand this. Write in Twi.

Just40:
Your country just took another 3 billion dollars from the world Bank ... Keep sinking yourself deeper into this debt crisis you're facing .

The Ghanaian economy is busy growing on the back of manufacturing at a rate higher than expected.

Ghana will spend next year going through a disinflation process that will see inflation drop to 15%.

That means everything in Ghana will be a lot more cheaper than it is in Kenya currently is.

As we speak, Kenya has been suffering from hyperinflation for the better part of one year now. How are you guys even managing with those high prices?

East Africa Regional force will try to fix DRC (new member). The troops will be made up of Kenya, Burundi, Uganda, DR Congo, and South Sudan. Tanzania already has Special Forces in the DRC. Kinshasa refused Rwanda's request to join the EAC force.

Kenya has sent 1000 troops - and previously a quick reaction force under the UN operates there.


One FN Scar the KDF are issued with can finance 100 G3 Nigeria army are armed with.

Ghaana gone...Steve Hanke


Ghana Statistical Services reports that inflation has hit 40.4%/yr in October—a 21-yr high. That's the official rate. It's WRONG. Today, I accurately measure Ghana's inflation at a stunning 156%/yr.

Steve Hanke

Thanks to sky-high inflation, Nigerians don't know the price of anything anymore. Today, I measure Nigeria's annual inflation at a soaring 60.40%/yr. It's time for Sleepy Buhari to wake up.

This could make more money than crue oil and with more multiplier -value chain - from millions of farmers to transports. Nigeria has huge potential go back being cooking oil giant it was before crude oil. Palm oil, soyabeans, name it... africa imports lots of cooking oil...i think 2nd to crude oil..if not cars or machinery.

QuietMynd:
Europe imports soybeans worth $14.2m from Nigeria, then go on to process it into oil and make thrice the money. In 2017, Alhaji Gerawa built a $50m processing plant in Kano, with a potential for export . Production has begun, 5,000 workers engaged,valued added and Nigeria wins.

Ruto signal to local debt market...invest you money elsewhere otherwise kenya gov will borrow at single digit.
If interest rate is more than 10 percent - we dont take the money.
This will force banks, pensions and others to look for alternative investment.
Or well take whatever the gov offers.
Win-win.

"It is not possible for us to borrow beyond 10 per cent. The last borrowing we did was at 14 per cent. That is unacceptable and that is the trajectory we are going," the President said adding that they will not make a U-turn on the decision.

Good move as gov as has been crowding out private sector lending - lazyly lending to gov and making superprofit....14% interest is a steal...its better than building a rental.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EB0ylHycmOo

Kenya went with Nigeria and South Africa to IMF in 2020 during covid.
This 4th phase/review of that program with IMF - I think it's final review/funding.
Each phase IMF asses - and decide to release money if you're going the right direction.
As of now the top 10 countries under IMF include both South Africa and Nigeria.
Kenya is not in that list.

Going to IMF is like going to hospital.
You can take yourself.
Or they can come with an ambulance.


Many countries realized their economies were sick - definitely absolutely sick with lockdowns - and run to the doctor - IMF.

Ghana refused to do the rational and prudent thing in 2020.
And continue borrowing.

And now they want the ambulance to come rescue them.

But IMF hospital is full.

Why is IMF important - and why do country go for it.
It's not about the money.

What is 3 billion dollars...Kenya collect 2 billion every month.

IMF is about BUILDING confidence - building trust with debt market that loan govs - that you're making ammends, being a good boy and they can trust you.

Countries go to IMF to send positive signals that they are on the mend - IMF does this by recommending very heavy doses of injection. Unless you dont draw the money - just get precautionary overdraft facility - the moment you want money - IMF will demand serious reforms - Egypt for example have to privatize and drop some economic policies - or you go elsewhere - which is nowhere.

Without IMF - you die Zimbwabwe style.

Ghana is bleeding every day - because nobody trust the gov of Ghana - not domestic - least of all international.

What happens - nobody can lend them - USD goes haywire - debt triple in few months - everything become impossible - country goes to standstill.

Srilanka and Lebanon are richer countries than most in Africa.

Argentina and Greece are developed countries...but when you get into negative feedback loop...you're dead..same way you're on virtous loop..where positive sentiment reinforce each other.

End of day - everyone trying to predict the future - and they dont like taking obvious risk - they aint gonna bet on Ghana when it's bleeding.

IMF was created to be Last man standing.

GeneralDae2:
Kenyans just recently secured an IMF deal like Egypt. What I don't understand is why the Kenyans here are trolling Ghana, as though their situation is any better. Worst of it all is that while Ghana is seeking 3 billion dollars like the big boys they are, Kenya is seeking a paltry 433 million dollars.

IMF Reaches Staff Level Agreement on the Fourth Reviews of the Extended Fund Facility and Extended Credit Facility for Kenya
November 8, 2022

IMF staff and the Kenyan authorities have reached staff-level agreement on economic policies to conclude the fourth reviews of the 38-month EFF/ECF arrangements. Kenya would have access to about US$433 million in financing once the review is formally completed by the IMF Executive Board.
The new government has expressed strong commitment to the IMF-supported program.
The economy remains broadly resilient. However, volatile international commodity prices, tighter external financing conditions, higher inflation, global slowdown in growth, and continued drought have created a challenging backdrop for economic policy making.
Kenya’s program is helping the country through these global shocks by anchoring policies to support inclusive growth while addressing debt vulnerabilities.

Almajiri with your esteem education in Islamic begging you dare talk about cerebral stuff.
Biggest cost of cement is transport cost...you want to build your factory smack right in the city.
It's bulky useless thing. Only expensive in Africa.
It cost 2 dollars elsewhere....that is why people just pour it.
Look at Kenya now...there are cement factories in every city...Mombasa, Nairobi, Kisumu, Nakuru and even now Eldoret.
That only way you can keep price down....reducing the cost of transport
I have transported cement with my trucks in Uganda...there were at least every 100ksm form nearest cement factory.
I charged half a dollar for 100ksm..200ksm..another half a dollar per bag...by time if get to Juba south sudan...you can imagine the transport cost from Uganda nearest cement factory in Tororo...700kms...that is already added 4 dollars per bag.
Truck takes about 600 bags...depending on the allowed axle.
Nigeria twice kenya should have maybe 50 cement factories...or at least one per state.

Now what do you have - Dangote has 3 or 5 plants - cements has to be trucked miles away...transport cost is huge..by time it get to Kano or your city...it already 15 dollars a bag....while in Egypt it's 2 dollars.

To get to 2-3 dollars Nigeria need to have cement factories in every major town - produce both limestone and clinker locally - and only variable really would be power cost (it needs lot of that) - and usual machinery+profit.

theenchanter:
sometimes, u talk like a fool.

If you want to understand why Nigeria is messed up. Start with cement. Read this world bank blog
https://blogs.worldbank.org/developmenttalk/why-price-cement-so-high-africa

Everywhere in Africa - cement prizes have fallen - case is kenya - 20yrs ago I use to buy it 600-700 - as I built my first house - and for rest of years it has been 550-600 - retail - 450-500 if you buy wholesale. Cement has almost been inflation proof. And it should be - because cement is just made from useless limestone & clay as binder - most useless production that is plentiful everywhere.

Conclusion For Nigeria - Dangote & his friends are enslaving you. DO NOT PROJECT. Dangote cant do his crap outside Nigeria where he has to compete with others...he sell cement cheaply. Nigeria together with 3-4 others - they enslave you.

Nigeria should have cement plants in every city - as cement is just bulky grinding of limestone - it should not be a big deal - it like salt.

In Kenya banana, table salt and cement in are some of things that remain the same price almost for lifetime - banana has always been 5shs - salt 5shs - and cement now stuck at 500-600.

`Oligarchies' led by major producers that use political power to erect excessive entry barriers against new entrepreneurs

Obaboon, you dont get any shame left in your zoo, comparing yourself to kenya. Save your generator. You're under the firm grip of Dangote. Tell Dangote to come and make money selling cement for 10 dollars He cant.

obaaderemi:
He thinks Nigeria is Kenya where they buy cement for almost$10.

Where are we with Cedis?
Look like we touched 15?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CWArIGL6Pdw

vankelvin:
You are a basket case so clear off

Mad-cow. The link is there.
Your total revenues for 2021 including oil & gas, non-tax and grants were 46B cedis - for Jan - Sept.
If we use the exchange rate of 2021 - that is roughly 8B dollars - 9 months.
If we use the exchange rate of now - jesus christ - 3B dollars - like RWANDA
https://mofep.gov.gh/sites/default/files/citizens-budget/2022-Citizens-Budget_English.pdf

Just40:
you're just mad... Kiddo
I'm talking about revenue and you're confusing yourself with budget

Ghana cooked CPI predictably doesnt have the average prices of individual items.

https://statsghana.gov.gh/gssmain/fileUpload/Price%20Indices/Bulletin_%20CPI%20August%202022.pdf

Bring the cpi.
For example
Kenya cement is 600 kshs - not 1000 - it was 550kshs before inflation this year saw it rise to 800sh - and has dropped to 600shs.
Ex factory is 430-450ks.

Generally almost everything is dropping in price in kenya.

I think next inflation will be back to below 7.5 percent - which is our target.

Just40:
I told you I like the practical price comparison and not some massage bullshit
Kenya
5L sunflower Oil - 2,754kshs (22.58usd)
Ghana
5L sunflower oil - 270ghs (18.69usd)

Kenya
Ordinary perfume Rice 5KG - 1000kshs(8.21usd)
Ghana
Ordinary perfume Rice 5kg - 86cedis (5.94usd)

Kenya
Cement - 1000kshs (8.21usd)
Ghana
Cement - 86ghs & 90 GHS (5.94usd)

Should I add sugar, wheat flour, bread and co?

Tax revenue versus budget. Madcow. Just google away
https://mofep.gov.gh/sites/default/files/budget-statements/2022-Budget-Highlights.pdf

Just40:
My revenue was 15 billion dollars last year and this year we will hit 16 billion dollars though we should have hit 20 billion dollars.

Keep twisting argument


Debt servicing and your wage bill, you'll have to prioritize which one you want to pay first and which you'll be begging the IMF and WB to support you pay

Ghana hyperinflation on - at the rate of inflation/depreciation - we are looking at xmas where cedis will exchange 30 to a dollar

That is tangential to the issues at fore - which that kenya has slowed down it's apetite for Eurobond as response to debt crisis - that is why IMF are happy with us - and unhappy with Ghana - and Nigeria.

obaaderemi:
Finished. End of Discussion at number 4.
Next!

Dangote is always welcomed to kenya - as long as he is not coming to seek favours like he does in other countries. He fears competition. Let him come and compete with fellow Australian rich man.

Kenya welcome everyone - black, blue, green, yellow - to visit/invest/live - hakuna matata - karibu tena.

obaaderemi:
Nigeria can supply your fertilizer demand. Say yes to intratAfrica trade.

I am only aware of these..

1) Kenya went for its first Eurobond in June 2014 where a total of Sh280 billion was borrowed in five and 10-year tranches. This inaugural Eurobond generated heated controversy after the government failed to show projects financed by the debt paper. - 3 billion dollars


2) The government went back for another Eurobond in 2018, where it netted Sh202 billion in 10 and 30-year tranches - 2 billion dollars


3) In 2019, Kenya was back at the international markets where it raised its Sh210 billion in its third Eurobond named the Kachumbari bond, that also repaid other loans and funded unspecified infrastructure projects. - 2B dollars - most used to retire/extend the frist one


4) 2021 - 1 billion dollars - 12yr bond.

obaaderemi:
Why should I actually be arguing with a Kenyan who thought the last time Kenya floated an Eurobond was 2019. Oga, you know nothing. It's just sad how you mislead idiots like the Kikuyuman and the sh.male here.

Australian minning billionaire inks deal to build green amonia fertilizer plant in Naivasha
In a major effort to replace imported polluting fertilizer, the Government of Kenya and Fortescue Future Industries (FFI) have signed a binding Framework Agreement on the sidelines of COP27, witnessed by the President of Kenya HE Dr. William Ruto CGH and Executive Chairman of Fortescue Dr Andrew Forrest.

Looking really good - they could almost double their passengers and cargo - unless Ruto move to allow competition with truck will affect their cargo business.

Wuoche:
SGR is getting busier year by year.

Ramaphosa in Nairobi for the creation of Pan African airline - a partnership btw SAA and KQ
https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/business/pan-african-airline-plans-fly-into-headwinds-3935996
The quest to create a pan-African airline through a joint venture between Kenya Airways and South African Airways by June next year is facing early turbulence after both carriers sought exemption from clauses on the competition.

Kenya Airways (KQ) last week said it is seeking exemptions from the clauses in Kenya and regional trading blocs, several months after South African Airways (SAA) raised the same plea back home.

The move means it will be difficult to implement the Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM) and the Africa Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) initiatives that are key in having a continental airline.