₦airaland Forum

That is just in a month - welcome to hyperinflation.

Wuoche:
Cedis is on a free fall against Ksh . On October 15th the rate was 1 cedi to 11ksh, today it's 1 cedi to 8Ksh

Look like Pangani is coming up nicely - I believe that 1st picture.

Wuoche:
...

You're still paying a billion dollar overcapacity charge after 2015 mess. You simply never seem to get right anything.

Just40:
Read from the WB

We don't put Eurobond monies into loss making business like your country did with Chinese money and can't pay back

Which school of economics do Ghana economic policy wonks go to? People must avoid going there.

GeneralDae:
I believe that was the time Ghana was about going for their last IMF then (if I'm not mistaken), so the interest rate was always going to be outrageously high.

Kenya debt - right now that commercial loan has falled from 30% of external to 15% - as we retired one Eurobond with another --didnt take the money - but used it to repay the other - and extended the maturity.

Kenya debt problem is manageable - and that is why our macro-economics are stable.

We listened to the warning signs - and have generally gone slow.

This year Ruto gov will basically bring it to stand still - and in another year - we will be out of any problems - firing on all cylinders.

kenya -> The share of commercial loans is now about 15% - less than 9 billion dollars. The rest are multilateral and bilateral creditors. We didnt issue Eurobond in 2021 - coz of interest rate - Ghana did - nigeria did. In fact the last Eurobond was somewhere in 2019 to retire the older Eurobond.

Nigeria has gone to Eurobond - including hilariously recklessly this year of 2022. You dont even care about the interest rates.

WHO DOES THIS Borrow commercial loan to fund FUEL SUBSIDY
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/nigeria-offers-premium-raise-125-bln-eurobond-2022-03-18/
LAGOS/ABUJA, March 17 (Reuters) - Nigeria has priced a $1.25 billion Eurobond issue at 8.375%, its debt office said on Thursday, a premium compared to existing tenors as the country sought to raise cash to fund a costly petrol subsidy scheme in the face of limited oil revenue.

The latest debt issue marks Nigeria's eight outing on the Eurobond market after it sold a $4 billion debt in September and had been considering more issues before fears around the Omicron coronavirus variant led it to shelve plans. read more

obaaderemi:
Whenever you throw a tantrum I know you are hurting badly. Your government not only took eurobond but also went to a consortium of commercial banks for a loan.
I've been watching you make a monkey of yourself talking about other people taking eurobond and commercial banks' loans as if your hellhole doesn't do same.
Well, I don't blame you. You hardly know anything about what's going on in Kenya until we tell you here.

Ghana the land of the golden stool worth 76 billion
copied..
one of the most outrageous bonds out there must be the $1bn lent to Ghana in 2015 at 10.75% interest with a $400m guarantee from the World Bank.A buyer of the bond in 2015 is already guaranteed to get $1.15bn. And they are still 'owed' $1bn, and $860m of interest payments

Where Ghana is at moment - is called hyperinflation - you should update yourself every few hours; Before you head for the shops; just carry twice the amount of money;

Just40:
Desperate as always

You keep forgetting that Ghana is not in a debt crisis which is what Kenya is in because Ghana only spend 30% of revenue on debt servicing.

Kenya is spending a whopping 76% of revenue on debt servicing which is the reason why you are currently unable to pay your Chinese debt.

What do you know about kenya debt? I have read very pathetic report from your DMO about Nigeria debt. You should try read about Nigeria first before you read about Kenya.

Obaboon improve yourself - dont just heckle for the sake. Fact is your debt servicing ratio already exceeded revenues long time ago

Start here -> https://www.dmo.gov.ng/

obaaderemi:
Stop saying things you know nothing about.
Kenya just went begging before commercial banks for loans.
You scrapped your eurobond idea after you saw Nigeria do same. There's nothing to learn from a Kenyan when it comes to debt management.

Commercial loans are hard to forgive. But if you borrow from bilateral and multilateral creditors - then apply right political pressure - they can cancel or extend.

For example world should have made china take some covid blame - and refuse to pay the loans until covid recovery. Kenya tried - got six months - but other countries refused to press china.

Avoid commercial loans from syndicated banks or eurobond if you can.

Africa economies right now are getting raptured by covid & ukraine war - none of it their making - and this time to call for another debt cancellation/restructuring - but if you borrowed from a commercial bank - they dont do that business - because it's depositor money. If you borrowed from say French gov - you're borrowing their taxes - nobody gives a damn.

GeneralDae:
Nigeria actually paid off about 12 Billion dollars then. Not all of the debts were forgiven and it wasn't just Nigeria then. Most African countries and many countries around the world had their debts forgiven. Nigeria also parted with over 12 Billion dollars in addition for the about 30 Billion dollars debt.

You want me to teach you English too. Our problem is debt to gdp - has risen - and debt servicing has bridge 30 percent. We have aggressively borrowed lately - we need to slow down - but our quality of loans is good.

Once we passed 50 percent debt to gdp - we have to started getting worried - and we have - and now we need to watch our debt like hawks watching chicken - otherwise we could become Ghana.

We have to refinance our debt, extend the maturity (take long tenure debt) so we can manage repayments, and general avoid commercial loans from banks or eurobond.

That is what we have been doing lately.

GeneralDae:
If this is true then why do you rank so high in terms of debt unsustainability even in Africa?

Debt management is a lot of things. Where you borrow, the interest rates, the maturity.
Kenya has one of Africa best debt management - despite our debt rising lately.
For example - compare kenya, nigeria and ghana external debt.
See where each borrowed from, for how much, and for how long - and who has pressure.

The pressure shows up in macro-economic indicators like currency, inflation, interest rates. Ghana is literally bursting the seams - and Akosombo is about rapture. Nigeria is not far. Kenya is very stable.

Ghana and Nigeria - most of their external debt is commercial - and as you know (if you do) - govs are not designed to be profitable.

They only become profitable when they grow taxes or revenues. Kenya is doing well there. Ghana and Nigeria are not.

Majority of kenya debt are concessional loans from adb,imf, worldbank, japan, france and china. Those ones can forgive you like they did Nigeria in 2005 - what was that 35B dollars written off. Their debt is more AID.

Now where problems start - Zambia and Ghana - you take eurobonds - and you soon die.

GeneralDae:
36 Billion dollars?? African countries need to learn. You can't go on a borrowing spree like Egypt who have those Arab nations to support them in times of crises.
If you want to borrow, first borrow to build projects that would pay for your infrastructure.

It because we can. You wish you had that leverage. You borrow from commercial eurobond - those you cant negotiate - because its not one person - it thousands of bond holders - same with domestic debt. You can negotiate debt with china or imf or worldbank or adb.

vankelvin:
Why would you want to extend your debt payment? It's because you are highly indebted, broke and cannot pay as per the original contract stipulates

Slowly - before we go for profitability - did you offer cocoa beans as collatoral or not. You already offered bauxite recently.

Just40:
Private property cannot be collateralized crazy kid.

Desperate as usual.... The Bui dam project was a profitable businesses and it finished paying it debt in 4 to 5 years to the Chinese.... In 2 years of operation, the Chinese engineers were kicked out and replaced because half payment had already been made.

Compare that to your SGR were you paid 20 billion shillings into Escrow and still managed to sign unto clauses that says your KPA can be seize should you default on any debt obligation

Worse of all, you knew that your SGR will never be profitable to be able to pay that loan

In short you're ranting in something you barely understand.
SGR is already past Naivasha.
We want it extended to Kisumu - another 230kms - then Uganda border- another 150kms - then Uganda extend to Kampla - and congo

Now how much did you spend in your railway?

Just40:
your minister has already done the comparison for you.

Paying 4 billion dollars for just 480km SGR is just insane ... Now you want China to give you another money so you can extend it from Nairobi to naivasha and they are saying no because you've already defaulted on the 4 billion dollars.

Mad cow,
We paid 3.2B including rolling stock, inland port and 28 km of bridges for wild life - for Nairobi-Msa - 480kms - total length 650kms.
We paid 1.5B for extension to Naivasha including another inland port - 150km - including 5 km tunnel via rift valley.

Now tells what you're comparing this with - and mad cow - let us have at least an intellectual debate for a change.

Just40:
no one is envious that you paid 4 billion for 480km SGR
How do you call a loss making business successful?

Their currency is 2nd worst after Cedis. Their inflation approaching 100. The black naira rate is now past 800 naira to dollar. Their sleepy president isnt even aware.

Shma2022:
Nigerian, you have more external debt than Kenya. More than $70billion - That is nearly twice ours. Your currency is on the verge of devaluation. You have more problems than we do. Focus on your issues first.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-18/naira-likely-to-be-devalued-by-20-in-2023-bank-of-america-says

I have seen report that SGR has contributed 2-3 percent during and after construction.
If you do the calculation at 115B dollars...1 percent GDP is 1.15B...therefore every year...SGR is contributing about 2-3B dollars annually to our economy.
For a 5B investment - that is great multiplier.
One good example - impact of SGR on coastal tourism - nowadays domestic and foreign tourist find it easy to hope into train and go to Mombasa to spend their weekends at the coast.
Before SGR - you either flew or took an 8-10hrs bus ride or drove - which discouraged lot of people from visiting the coast.
As of now SGR is fully booked until January.They are going to add more coaches.
Those are kind of impacts you cannot measure - on tourism, port, transport, safety, - nobody goes measuring the impact of our road infrastructure...but because it's shiny chinese built railway...people want to have it profitable. Anti-chinese propaganda.
Basic infrastructure dont turn profitable in that sense...they dont have to...gov will use taxes to pay for it...they turn profitable as a multiplier or enabler.
How much do countries invest in road infrastructure annually? Is there anyone going out there measuring when the roads will become profitable??
Heck I doubt there is a railway in the entire planet that is profitable - almost all are subsidized - because they are like roads - they are the enablers/facilitators of the economy.
[quote author=vankelvin post=118203376][/quote]

He of course took a huge cut - possibly anything 10 percent - which is a lot of money - but the SGR has paid off more in its multiplier - and as much as we should backward - we need to move forward. Rent seeking is almost standard in Africa.

QuietMynd:
Uhuru is crazy


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dh8QCA0K4Ns

You cant rig or cook for long - that is your cedis is collapsing - Kshs remain very very strong and inflation is single digit.

Just40:
except for inflation and cedi depreciation but the real impact of those two is still better than what exist in Kenya.

Nonsense.

Just40:
Your central bank keep churning out fake data
Kenya forex reserve is at almost 6 billion dollars with Kenya month import of 2 billion dollars, that is less than 3 months cover.
Ghana reserves stands at 7 billion dollars with a monthly import of 1.2 billion dollars but as we normally do in Ghana, we under report it to be 2.9 months.

Tell that to Kenyan importers who can't find any dollar to buy and they will slap you... Do you think it is out of no reason why there are food shortages and fuel shortages in your country Kenya?

With this kind of capital outflows from Kenya, your country is in serious trouble ... No wonder your importers are struggling to find dollars

I stopped on 1st sentence. Usual madness. Every country has outflows and inflows. Those chinese are sending serious money home. And so are oil, gas, and even Lebanase. MTN south africa alone is cashing out serious money I bet. They dont send cedis - they send dollars.

I see you are already begging MTN to keep their money in Ghana. This happens again when you dont have strong domestic economy.

-->Profit repatriation and the Cedi
https://www.businessghana.com/site/news/business/263130/MTN-commits-to-support-Ghana-CARES-initiative
With regard to profit repatriation and its immense impact on the local currency, the MTN Group president pledged the company’s commitment to repatriate profits in a manner that would not hurt the value of the Ghana cedi against the major foreign trading currencies.

Consequently, he said the telecom giant had began discussions with the Bank of Ghana to find ways that could help reduce the impact of profit repatriation on the value of the local currency.

Just40:
The IMF and WB has already indicated that there's almost no outflows out of the Ghanaian economy... They made that observation just last month by observing the trend over the last 3 years.

Ghana run a surplus and has been doing so for at least 9 years.


The report also shows an increase in total imports from about 6.7 billion dollars in June 2021 to about 7.5billion dollars in June 2022.

The latest figures by the Bank of Ghana indicate that the country received nine billion dollars from her exports in June 2022 compared to the estimated 7.5 billion dollars it spent on importing goods for the same period.

Ghana oil import is only 200 million dollars

No, you were desperate for forex, and thought you could print fake cedis, and use it to buy gold from poor galamsey. I think by now the Chinese shaoling gangs must have gone underground with their gold. No sane person can exchange gold with a falling cedis. They will sell in dollars. You go find dollars and buy all the gold you want - or start gov owned mines - and mine as much gold as the swiss. After you learn to make chocolate bars.

Bretton wood 3.0 - desperation - old desperation. Kenya was there in 1993. With forex running out - gov decided to go to DRC and try steal their gold - and re-export.

Now Ghana is trying to snatch small miners gold and use it as hard currency

Just40:
We went gold purchasing using the cedi in other to change our entire monetary regime to adjust to Breton wood 3.0.
Increasing our real money reserves to effectively create a 70% to 90% reserve backing for every cedi in circulation just like Switzerland.

Nonsense. Port charges are small potatos. The big problem - they are dealing with cedis that is falling everyday - and it's hard to find it - except to forage in black alleys and markets. Your central bank can hardly meet 1/4 of the demands. And then when they import - they have to deal with dead stock -as Ghanians can no longer afford to buy many things.

As for Kenya - you will never understand just how strong and resilient our economy is - and it starts with having very strong domestic economy that manufacture a lot of things we use. Then our imports or trade - almost 50% is done within Africa (highest intra-africa trade in Africa) - you dont need to use dollars to trade with Uganda or Tanzania.

That is why we breeze through all these global financial crises like nothing happened.

Fundamentals as we speak. Inflation headline is 9.5% - underlying is 5.7 percent. MPR or base interest is 8.25 percent. Currency depreciation 9 percent. Our fundamentals and macro-economic looks very good...despite a serious drought.

Just40:
As usual.. you're just crazy with no understanding of what he is saying.
They complained that the charges at the port was too high and used this argument to bend govt will to reduce duties paid at the port by by establishing a fixed rate of 8 cedis to a dollar at the port.

If Ghana is to stop all import today, it will take 2 to 3 years before there is a shortage of anything here.

In Kenya, it only took 2 months and you guys were looking like Venezuela

What about the outflows - you basically import almost everything - oil export of 3B - refined oil imports of 5B - you're negative. 1st half of this year - exports of 7.6B - imports of 7.5B - before we factor out forex outflows - as investors and ghanians dollarize & run away from your dying economy.

Just40:
it has
There was also a 1.5 billion oil inflows and a 750 million inflow so the market is flush with cash

Crazy Logic.
You went gold purchasing hoping to stop the cedis depreciation and rein in inflation.
It has produced the opposite impact.
The cedis has decelerated even faster....

Just40:
Yes Ghana has been printing money.... I've said it here before, it is a direct response to the gold buying policy.

The cedi depreciation is only a temporary response to the printing as it will effectively establish a peg overtime since the printed cedis is backed by gold reserves under LMBA certification.

I am talking commercial interest rates. Kenya MPR is 8%. Banks lend around 13-17% because they must add inflation+profit margin. Now Nigeria with MPR of 15% - underlying inflation of double digit - the least your bank can loan you is 30%.

GeneralDae:
MPR 15%. Cash reserve ratio 32.5%.

Because it's very profitable - you can charge an arm and a leg. This how KQ survives - flying to backwaters of Africa. You cannot advise Kenya on matters aviation.Your airline has been dead until it was revived with 4 planes that now fly domestic . Tells us about Maize, Beans, Sweet potatos and cashew nuts - and we may listen.

Kazikazi:
That's why I believe u fellas are dumb.
You know very well some countries are shitholes.But u decide to go there?
You said a radar was in France,but how did the plane land?
Then you have a rain excuses.Do u know why aeroplanes carry extra fuel?

In short....
Flying to those shitholes is a dumb move.Most good airlines don't fly everywhere. It's not just about infrastructure, even security and getting quality fuel is another issue.But a dumb Kenyans decided to fly everywhere so as to appear big.

Next come to learn from your big brother Tz

How are people able to repay those loans with crazy interest rates of 25-30% (annualized).

GeneralDae2:
Yeah, too much lending have been going on since 2021 because the lockdown from COVID was continued for way too long in Nigeria especially in Lagos the commercial capital, hence there is much cash in the system already. CBN gotta do what they gotta do to control the resulting inflation by in turn increasing CRR for the banks.

So jointly own by Michael Shirima & KQ. Btw I think Suluhu allowed KQ's JamboJet to fly in TZ. Soon you will be able to fly for as low as 25 dollars - your huge country can do with budget airlines.

Kazikazi:
Precision air was founded by a Tanzanian, and its still owned by tanzanians,.Your few shares can't make you a loudspeaker.Know your lane.
Tanzania is ahead of you fellas.Trying to lie to me is foolish,u can't lie to a fellow who has higher IQ than you.

We eat cement.

Kazikazi:
Again you busy with cooked figures?
Where was your cement used?
What did u construct?
Do u even use cement in your house construction?
You have Alot of mud houses,how can u be above us in cement consumption?
Even when u build those apartments, you hardly used cement. You mostly use more sand and it is why most buildings are collapsing

No cement needed here in this African country !

Until you fly in central africa where the radar is in france - dont compare yourself with KQ - that flies to some of the backwater countries in Africa - like Cameroon. Not only is the infrastructure missing but it also rains almost daily like it a storm. KQ pilots are some of world best - majority are from Kenya Airforce - and flew fighter jets before switching to commercial airlines. One accident or two - when you fly to 100 destination - cannot be compared to a 2yr old airline with 4 planes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ttipKy76HOM

Kazikazi:
Do u even have pilots go fly planes?
What happened in cameroon? Your low skilled pilots killed over 100 people in that crash.What can u teach a Tanzanian?

Our precision air wasn't crashed in the same manner your kq crashed in cameroon. Ours was an intelligent crash.When a pilot realized he can't do anything more to avoid the accident he sent the plane Into the lake.That means you can still be able to save the passengers and later on the plane can be pulled out,cleaned,and fit new engines and hit a sky again.

But your Cameroonian crash was dumb.The whole plane crashed on the forest.Every one was killed.the whole plane destroyed. But surprisingly, you wanna teach us about planes?