₦airaland Forum

Yes 200k is low - a million - for a city of 4m plus would be ideal - for Lagos - you need something that move maybe 5m per day - if indeed it's 20m city.

Our commuter rail is stop gap measure - eventually we need to tear it done - and build a proper electrified metro line - radiating to all corners of nairobi...that can carry a million plus people

Abohboy:
I thought anything below 200 000 per day for a commuter rail was low?

Yes he is very slow - Nairobi has had commuter rail for the longest anyone can remember

NTSA:
Nairobi has always had commuter rail for decades we are not envisioning as you claim.

With new DMUs and hourly service - the projection is to hit 40,000 passengers per day.That would be like Gautrain - whose ridership keep dropping.

NTSA:
Nairobi commuter rail has a daily ridership of 13000 passangers a track length of 160km

Everything matters. Your top 5 banks consist of 90 percent of total banking sector. South Africa total banking asset roughly 400B - same with Egypt. Nigeria roughly 100B. Kenya roughly 50B.Ghana 25B.Tanzania 15B. Uganda 10B.

AfriqueDuZuid:
Value of combined matters

Counting by country, in the top 80 African banks by assets, are the following: - see kenya has 10 banks in top 80 - Nigeria 14.

Algeria-5 Ivory Coast-1 Senegal-1
Angola-4 Kenya-10 South Africa-7
Egypt-7 Mauritius-5 Sudan-1
Ethiopia-4 Morocco-7 Tanzania-2
Gabon-1 Mozambique-2 Togo-1
Ghana-3 Namibia-2 Tunisia-1
Rwanda-1 Nigeria-14 Uganda-1

Sound argument 101: When you dispute; put the alternative figure.

theenchanter:
ethiopian rail line doesn't carry 200000 passengers.

Mombasa-NBO - carries almost 2m per annum - in passengers - and almost 5 million metric tonnes - nearly 0.5M TEUS now. You cannot compare - ours is struggling to become operational profitable - a no mean feat for any railway in the world - yours is so hopeless it cannot even dream of that.

Already your brand new railway like from Abuja to Kaduna is mostly grounded for lack of spares, diesel and such - because it's not economical at all.

theenchanter:
pls, be concerned about urs for once.

Wet dreams. Lagos-Ibandan - mere 100kms - was started in 2012 - and has taken almost 10yrs - to complete. That is crazy. Nairobi to Mombasa a line of 500km - took 3yrs to be completed.

The same with the rest. You are building 10Km per year. That is why there is Julius Berger towns all over Nigeria. Your country is broke and cannot finance project in timely money.

theenchanter:
lagos/ibadan rail-line began after this thread or so, it's complete.

Port-harcourt to maiduguri rail line (1443km) rehabilitation at $3b started 5 months ago.

Just two days ago, construction of coastal rail line... Lagos-calabar (1400km) double standard gauge at over $11b was approved.

Just last month, construction of lagos red line began, yeah, city metro.....

I can go on and on.......simply because u don't see us whine over projects here doesn't mean u're building than us.

Are we talking about the same Prof Charles Soludo that the world acclaimed economist Dr Ngozi described as the worst central bank governor. Yes CBN is independent - but not from Treasury or Finance Ministry. It's foremost the treasury bank. How can it be independent of it's main and only customer in most countries.

The question is why were bank consolidated during Ngozi time - because it was part of debt clean up and financial reforms that she undertook with Paris Club.It is not a coincidence that Nigeria bank consolidation happened in 2005.

As for kenyan banks - they are not bankrupt and going down with depositor moneys - they are naturally consolidating - that is why as we speak Equity right now has 11B dollars (should be top 4 in NIgeria) - and will be 25B dollars by 2024 - beating any Nigeria banks.

Again banking sector in kenya is 50 b dollars worth in asset - Nigeri is 100B - despite the 4 times population difference - therefore per capita kenya banks are twice bigger if you factor that proportion.

Private sector - stock exchange is good indicator - but the only indicator. I have given you a sure way - corporate taxes - both Nigeria and Kenya charge the same 30 percent. You expect compliance at that level - private sector to be high. We can argue about MSME -

obaaderemi:
Your ignorance is indeed bliss to you. No wonder though, you are a product of a Kenyan failed polytechnic system.
The banks in Nigeria are regulated by the CBN which is independent of the Ministry of Finance. Ngozi was never in charge of CBN, that was Charles Soludo.
And, I am sure even in Kenya the Central bank is different from the finance ministry. You've shown clearly you don't know the difference between the functions of a central bank and the finance ministry.

Furthermore, this excuse of yours shows clearly that you are afraid when it comes to the difference between our banks and yours. Your banks are small and useless. Your biggest bank is like the tenth in Nigeria, another proof that the Nigerian GDP is what they say it is.

Of course, stock exchange, while not the only way to judge the size of the private sector, remains one of the best ways to do that. If your private sector is actually bigger than ours, then your stock exchange wouldn't be less than half of ours.

And finally, tax is not a good way to judge the size of the private sector. Not every country is ready to tax the life out of their poor citizens like Kenya.
Private sector is all the part of the economy which is not controlled by the government, and which is commercial. It might be formal or informal.

It doesnt make any difference. Ethiopia one is carrying 200,000 per day.
1000 passengers can be carried by 10 buses - two trips per day - 50 passenger each a day
That is just wasted of money in many level - that train is burning lot of diesel for nothing.
Let write off the investment there -

Railway if it to carry passengers - should be playing around a million passenger per day - not 1,000.

Abohboy:
Seems your math is not mathing

maximum amount of days in a month is 31

so thats 1350 unless you chose to round to the nearest thousand?

Pleasantly suprised. I see it carried 42,000 in a month - that is 1,000 passenger per day

Abohboy:
It's already in operation you idiot, go and search it people have been using the trains daily wait for COVID to pass over and we should be seeing millions using the line everyday

Pigsty is better?

Abohboy:
you love to lie, Nigeria may be badly lead but a cattle kraal? let's stop with the hyperboles please

Future tense. Delusion. Nigeria is broke. It cannot finance any capital project. Even that Lagos-Ibandan will not go into operation - its taken forever for 120km.

Abohboy:
The airport line will be populated when connected with residenrial areas use your eyes.


You say no project has been completed then what is the Lagos-Ibadan Railway doing and the itakpe-warri line doing as well both are currently being connected to Abuja as we speak.

And the Ajaokuta steel mill is currently being toured by Russian engineers the same ones who built it so they can give us an estimate for the price and the funny thing is it's already covered

Putin said he'd pay half of the price and we've gotten an 1 billion dollar loan from afdb for the steel mill so don't worry Nigeria will soon be high on the list of steel exporters in Africa

Kenya is corrupt but at least policy wonks are allowed to do their work - run projections, come up with designs, and all that - with fatcats coming to ask their 10 percent later. NIgeria is run like a cattle kraal.

Listen to this guy explain Kenya BRT

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fB_ISxC6miM

NTSA:
Apparently it runs From some place called IDU to the Airport ,Earlier on, I thought it was a commuter rail running all around Abujas neighborhood untill I googled.

So when do you expect your airport line to ever be populated. See the whole of Abuja is Potemkin village. Just because other cities have train from Airport to the city center - you started from it. And that is airport that is like 40kms from Abuja city center

Total waste of money.

As for Nigeria projects - none has been completed since 2016 when these thread started - and none likely to be completed - because you gov is BROKE. NO MONEY.

It will likely go the way 10B dollar rusted to the ground in the Ajeuokota steel mill.

Abohboy:
Yes because it is only the first phase and it doesn't even go through any of the major population corridors once it is connected to them usage will indefinitely increase for now it is lying wallow.

As for Lagos we've shown that two lines are already under construction and both will be completed by 2022-2023 the red line being the most important one going through mainland where most people live and ending in Lagos Island where most commuters travel to, so it essentially solves 90% of Lagos's traffic and congestion problem it is projected to handle 2 million plus passengers daily at opening and 5 million afterwards.

Not only that. It the most ridicolous wastage of money. It cost nearly 1 billion dollars. It carries 400 passenger per day. The guys going to get into plane . It beyond the pale. Nigeria is just full of cattle....led by a school dropout without even primary education.

Compare that to Ethiopia Adis - carries more than 200,000 passengers daily

Meanwhile Lagos that badly need such a rail system - has world worst commute - people sleep in their car for a week and go home in weekend - those that commute have ot leave by 3am/4am - and arrive home past 10pm!!!!!! -

NTSA:
What is the obsession with abuja light rail?..the whole system is less than 45km with 3 operational stations.I bet the old Mombasa Mgr is longer than that.

Apart from Dr Ngozi - who I have tremendous respect for - I am definitely better than most of Nigeria cow economists.
Nigeria marcoe-economics are very crazy.
Imagine debt servicing to revenue ratio of 400 percent next year.
It will have to resort to printing money - sending Naira in a zimbwabwe like spin!

Nigeria fulani herdsmen had better asked WTO to give Dr Ngozi a sabbatical leave to fix Nigeria - nobody else can - although even her at this point - she cant save NIgeria.

Okonjo-Iweala served twice as Nigeria's Finance Minister and also as Minister of Foreign Affairs.[25] She was the first woman to hold both positions. During her first term as Finance Minister in the administration of President Olusegun Obasanjo, she spearheaded negotiations with the Paris Club that led to the wiping out of US$30 billion of Nigeria's debt, including the outright cancellation of US$18 billion.[26] In 2003, she led efforts to improve Nigeria’s macroeconomic management including the implementation of an oil-price based fiscal rule. Revenues accruing above a reference benchmark oil price were saved in a special account, the "Excess Crude Account," which helped to reduce macroeconomic volatility.[27]

NTSA:
You seem to be well versed on matters economics.

Ngozi served under Obasanjo as Min of finance in 2003-2006 and helped fix Nigeria gigantic mess - and earned world acclaim - Then Jonathan later re-appointed her to be Min of finance again.

But indeed as we speak all that Ngozi work is now wasted effort - Nigeria debt to servicing ratio is 100 percent - and country is essentially bankrupt.


https://nairametrics.com/2021/07/04/nigeria-records-debt-service-to-revenue-ratio-of-98-between-january-may-2021/

Fitch expect it to rise to 395 percent
https://www.vanguardngr.com/2021/03/nigeria-debt-to-revenue-ratio-to-rise-395-in-2022-fitch/

Poor Ngozi - she here in Geneva trying to fix WTO - but she may be needed back home.

Shaytun:
Rvp you’re back again with your deluded claims

Are you sure it was ngozi that forced the merger of Nigeria banks ...or are you reading the back page of history again??

What do I epect from a guy that claims 99% of Nigeria revenue is used to service debt . Madness

Good indicator - how much are banks lending to private sector.
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FD.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS?locations=ZG&most_recent_value_desc=false

Domestic credit to private sector by banks (% of GDP) - Sub-Saharan Africa

Top Countries.

Country Most Recent Year Most Recent Value
Mauritius 2020 95.9
Cabo Verde 2020 72.6
South Africa 2020 69.3
Namibia 2020 59.9
Seychelles 2020 50.0
Botswana 2020 37.6
Kenya 2020 32.7


The bottom - countries with tiny private sector

Country Most Recent Year Most Recent Value
South Sudan 2015 2.2
Sierra Leone 2020 6.2
Zimbabwe 2020 6.9
Congo, Dem. Rep. 2020 7.2
Gambia, The 2019 7.6
Sudan 2020 7.9
Guinea 2020 8.8
Chad 2019 9.2
Ghana 2020 9.9
Malawi 2016 10.5
Angola 2020 10.9
Nigeria 2020 11.2

Obaboon - you don't know Nigeria history. Ngozi saved you banks - after negotiating 30B dollars debt bail out for Nigeria - next she forced the banks to merge.

From 89 banks to 26 banks

https://www.proshareng.com/news/Capital-Market/26-banks-emerge-from-reforms/794

With the consolidation exercise in the sector coming to an effective end on December 31, 2005, the country now has 26 fairly large banks after the reforms begun on July 6, 2004. There were 89 until now.

The 26 banks to be announced today by the Central Bank of Nigeria are UBA, First Bank, Union Bank, Guaranty Trust Bank, Zenith Bank, Intercontinental Bank, Standard Chartered Bank, Oceanic Bank, Access Bank, Ecobank, ETB, and Sterling Bank.


Others are: NIB/Citibank, Fidelity Bank, FCMB Group, Wema Bank Group, IBTC Chartered, Stambic Bank, Afribank Group, Platinum-Habib, Diamond Bank, Unity Bank Group, and Spring Bank.


The rest are: Skye Bank Group, First Inland Bank, and Alliance Bank Group. The Alliance Bank Group consisting of Fortune Bank, Liberty Bank, Triumph, AFEX, Eagle, Metropolitan Bank, City Express Bank, and Gulf Bank. The banks held their court-ordered meeting in Lagos at the weekend

1) Ngozi as Min of Finance - rescued your banking sector - that was broke - and forced them to merge - from I think about 89 banks to 18 banks.
2) Stock exchange is hardly a measure of private sector of a country - an stock can be listed anyway. Namibia equity market is worth 140B dollars (listed 400 plus companies). Nigeria equity market cap is about 55B (listed 177 companies). Kenya equity market cap is about 25B (listed 49 companies).There are many kenya companies that are not listed in stock exchange .
4) The real size of private sector - give me the taxes they pay - Nigeria corporate tax rate is 30 percent - kenya is 30 percent.

obaaderemi:
Of course, IMF exists for a reason: to keep underdeveloped countries in the pockets of the developed countries. The guy who took you out of IMF deserves a statue. I remember when you were making fun of Ghana on IMF issue, now you know where the shoe pinches.
Now you are back and you are stvpidly celebrating it. Thank you for admitting that IMF is a bad idea. Covid took you back indeed. So, quit wasting my time on the IMF thingy..

What's Ngozi reforms?
Nigeria's banks have always been stronger than Kenya's banks. Kenya's bank assets is $45bn. There are other sectors doing well here. Agriculture, real estate, construction, mobile telecommunications, fmcg, etc. Our private sectors trounces yours.
Our formal private sector is bigger than yours. Check our stock exchange for information.

This just 5 days ago -- seems he relocated to Paris. Eko is by South Energyx Development, based in the United Arab Emirates.

Those Lebanase made a fortune under Abacha -

Gilbert Chagoury, on the other hand, defined by African business analyst, Philippe Vasset, as[b] "the guardian of the Abacha presidency"[/b], following the death of Sani Abacha in 2009, agreed to return about $300m stolen from Nigeria by the dictator through his network of companies.

https://www.sunnewsonline.com/why-billionaire-mogul-gilbert-chagoury-now-avoids-nigeria/

Vlain:
U are stupid as always.The Chagouri’s does not live in Dubai or abroad.They live in Lagos Nigeria and invest in Lagos Nigeria.pls say what u know not what u don’t.

Tortured Arguments as always. Chagouri and Lebanese are Nigerians but Nigerians living and investing abroad - with almost no plan to ever return to Nigeria are Nigerians.

Vlain:
Mumu the chagouri’s are based in Lagos,Nigeria.
Nova pioneer is owned by a Nigerian.
That restaurant in France is owned by a Nigerian. He invested into the French economy.

IMF exist for seasons like COVID. It would be an issue if like Ghana were always there...
These are times when everyone is running to IMF.
NIgeria took 3.5billion - Kenya took 1.5b.
IMF just added 650B dollars to be borrowed. You better stop enriching your banks - and borrow from IMf - so your banks can invest in private sectors and individuals.
Kenya will borrow the IMF money to help smoothen the economy during this pandemic - the loan are cheap almost zero rate.
We have no problems implement reasonable adjustment programs.
We also took more eurobond - more domestic debt - as gov continues to invest in basic infrastructure to bridge the infrastructure deficit.

Kenya projected growth last I checked was nearly 8 percent and highest in Africa this year.

obaaderemi:
Stop lying, boy.
Kenya runs to the IMF more than Nigeria. That's why they can pocket Kenya. The IMF has been bailing you out since 1975!
Nigeria had nothing to do with IMF until 1987. You need to be smarter than this.
You just issued another expensive eurobond, the 4th in seven years, just so you can use it to settle part of your debt. Who does that?
Your debts are unsustainable, forget what your treasury minister tells you. Kenya is out.

And your growth rate is projected to be 4.5% this year not the 8% you pulled out of your bum. Can you for once stop lying?

You dont even know the difference btw commercial lending rate and base rate.
Nigeria base rate - is now 11.5 percent
Kenya base rate - is 7 percent. This is very very good.

Base rate - this rate that Nigeria central bank or kenya central bank lend to BANKS.

Now move on commercial lending rate. This normally base rate plus bank margins plus inflation rate.
This is what your bank will lend to you or me as customers.

For kenya the data is here https://www.centralbank.go.ke/commercial-banks-weighted-average-rates/
Commercial rate in kenya - deposit 6 percent - savin 3.5 percent- lending 12 percent - and overdraft is 11 percent. This is very good.

Now Nigeria commercial rate - like Ghana - HOVER around 25-30 percent
In fact your banks only quote monthly rates - to get commercial rate times with 12.

FInd the data here - hovering from - 12 to 28 percent - for some like Heritage Bank it straight hilarous 27-30 percent. Zenith is 13-30 percent.
https://www.nigeriagalleria.com/Galleria_Finance/Bank-Lending-Interest-Rates.html

obaaderemi:
I don't have the time to type a novel. I am not idle like you.
Commercial lending rate in Nigeria is 11%, lower than Kenya's 12% and the IMF does not colonize Nigeria like it is colonizing Kenya. Read this and see that Kenya's case is worse than you think:
You are a poor liar,Son.
That interest rate is gradually going back to the 25% it used to be. Kenya is a joke.

Kenya has never benefited from HIPC initiative facility.
If you want to go 20yrs ago - then I bet Nigeria was doing even worse then.
In fact so worse Nigeria benefited from HIPC intiative.
In fact there are few countries that have their debt forgiven in such scale like Nigeria - and it all became wasted money.
Nigeria was given 18B dollars debt write off and overal reduction of 30B - few years ago- in 2005.
It's not any better now.
Nigeria is functionally broke - spending 100 percent of revenues to repay debt - breeding poverty and all the ills associated.

obaaderemi:
Like I said the IMF just arm twisted Uhuru into removing the interest rate cap he introduced in 2014.

It's why joblessness and poverty are rife in Kenya.
@ bolded. Kenya was a HIPC as recently as year 2000.

We didnt beg. We took advantage of that covid facility for six months. You run to IMF faster than kenya.
I keep telling you - kenya has well diversified non-mineral economy.
We do not depend on any sector of the economy.
We are not Nigeria who depend on OIL.
We do not depend on anything - not tea - not tourism - we have so many sectors.
Under COVID - our gov revenues have grown - lending to private sector has increased - we had possible 1 percent growth last year - and this year we will be Africa Fastest Growing economy - with projected 8 percent growth.
In fact only downside is rising oil prizes - and small dent on KSHS to USD - otherwise under COVIDD in 2021 kenya economy is firing on all cylinders.

Kenya economic growth can only be stopped by civil war or something that big - otherwise it's well diversified and sustainable growth - and almost happening on it's own.

Debt is only a small issue until we rebase the economy - and ratio will drop from 65-70 percent to GDP - to almost 55 percent. LDC should do 50 percent debt to GDP. Kenya being Low Middle Income should do 70 percent debt to GDP...so we are FINE even now. Also as revenue grow - the debt servicing ratio drops to 30 percent - which is where prudent debt management is.

The least we talk about Nigeria macroeconomics the better.

obaaderemi:
Well, your country is the one begging creditors for rescheduling because it is broke, using covid as an excuse.
Oil prices are going up while tea and tourism are doing badly. So who is faring better in terms of cash flow?
Mind you, Kenya only resumed debt repayment because China threatened to stop funding projects in Kenya. Uhuru in his craven manner rushed to get another expensive Eurobond so that he could pay your Chinese masters. The hammer is about to fall on your bubble economy.

Why dont you start by reading Nigiria debt office strategy paper

You're functionally illeterate.

When I say exogenous risk - (forex risk inclusive) - I am codensing the nonsense your write below.

Kenya and Nigeria in macro-economics can never be compared.

Kenya interest rate being more than Nigeria - has probably never happened

Kenya central bank rate is now 7 percent - and most commercial banks are lending at 13-15 percent - annually!
Nigeria base lending rate is what 14-16 percent - and their commerical bank rates start at crazy 25-35 percent - infact your loans are quoted monthly - because it insane if it was to be quoted annually!

Now let go back to debt - for more basic schooling of Nigeria WAEC graduate.

All the loans have their problems. What a country wants is cheap almost zero rated long maturing loans - and countries try to avoid short term expensive loans.

1) Borrowing internally like Nigeria does for 80 percent of their loan stiffle private sector, stiffle investment in real estates, equity and such. It reason Nigeria doesnt have any private sector - and is just one big informal black market. The only thriving sector in Nigeria is banks and maybe Dangote like import-export monopolies.

2) Borrowing Internally like Nigeria does at 16 percent is crazy. In fact Zambia at 17 percent Eurobond is better. Kenya gov borrows domestically from 6-12 percent. Nigeria start from 13-16 percent.

Borrowing externally has issues - forex risk - commercial risk.

Kenya does 50:50 mix - and within that 50 mix of foreign loans - we also split it into 3:3:3 - 30 percent commercial (eurobond, commercial loans from big banks); 30 percent bilateral (china, france, japan are out big lenders); 30 percent multilateral (Imf/wb/adb).

Now you're jumping all over because of small loans from IMF? - with that 30 percent of external loans - IMF contribute little.

We only went IMF with everyone else last year. Nigeria was first to rush to IMF.

We only went for debt relief like everyone else last. It was only for six months. It history now.

You country is in fix because 1) Naira keep depreciating to the dollar 2) You entire economy and gov depend on oil revenues.

And you country is spending 100 percent now of its oil revenue to pay debt.

You're functionally broke and brankrupt. The country and plus most of it's citizen.

obaaderemi:
You don't know much about economics as several people had established long ago. I can see you still haven't learnt much in spite of all your years here.

External debts are clearly worse than domestic debts because they are based in foreign exchange upon which you have little or no control.

Again the terms are very stringent and they affect the ordinary citizens more. That's why joblessness is rising in Kenya.

Look at this scenario, did you think ordinarily your government would listen to the IMF and freeze salary increments if it wasn't owing so much multilateral loans?

You mentioned interest rates. Nigeria's interest rate is 11% as at June. In Kenya it was 12%. You are worse off.
Do you know why? IMF again.
When Uhuru came in, interest rates was around 35% in Kenya! He capped it at 5% or so, thinking it would help SMEs. Your banks simply stopped lending to small businesses and stifled your economic growth.
IMF came in last year and arm twisted Uhuru into removing the interest rate cap. Now it is growing again and once more ordinary little Indians are the losers.
Meanwhile your external debts keep growing, all thanks to Chinese loans. Higher than Nigeria's or Ghana's.

Honestly, there's no way out for Kenya. Kenya is an IMF and Chinese colony.

Dream on. It's free. Kenya budget is 36B - Nigeria 25B

68816419:
Kaduna is building far more infrastructures projects than the whole of Kenya, the center alone can hosts any major event , the center has all sporting facilities u could think of.
Ongoing Remodelling of Murtala Square Kaduna

Dhaka is big city - maybe Cairo would talk - but not any of South African cities. Dhaka is becoming rich.

Vlain:
When I say Nairobi looks like Dhaka.This is what I mean.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4W510JssA1A

LOL - we have done the WAEC here - the most stupid exam I ever saw.

theTranscriber:
if your best students there in Maasailand write WAEC (West African examination council) they would fail
That's sure

By 2020 - you had almost emptied the stabilisation fund. The heritage fund got a mere 30m dollars - fund since inception was now 600M dollars.
https://www.bog.gov.gh/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/GHANA-PETROLEUM-FUNDS-FOR-SECOND-HALF-YEAR-ENDED-31-DEC-2020.pdf