₦airaland Forum

MzJackBaueress:
check check!!

ChinemeOkpan:
Ok Sir. Respect

He needs to respect himself . No be only him get craze, where hin own start na where some people own begin

Billyonaire:
Can Buhari spell the word corruption with his eyes closed ? Stop ranting, it will NOT help you recover your brains that you have forgotten in a pot of amala. I have Freedom of Speech, or will your certificate-less ancestor take that away from me?

Lest I forget; Why are you worrying about Nigeria's present financial state ? When Jonathan came on board, he didnt worry about it. He was able to resuscitate Rail-lines, buy couches and send the trains moving. He was able to privatize public power system, he digitized fertilizer distribution.

Yet the majority illiterates/ignorant have elected their kind, an analogue model of 1980s President to lead a 21st century nation.

Do not get me started, its too early.

ChinemeOkpan:
You are dangerous man. Very full of yourself

If not for General Scatter , I would have personally exposed you!

ChinemeOkpan:
Bros, you have to start getting used to the fact that Buhari is now your President and C-in-C

Embrace change and maybe you can transform from an online Billyonaire to someone that can afford 3 square meals in real life.

Have you perused the APC manifesto? There will be a social security payment for jobless young men, this will be of interest to you.

Texcoco:
[color=#1980BC] [b] Saraki is an inconsequential local champion who is not only corrupt and repressive but a neophyte in National politics,we even rate our local government chairman higher.
Obj- Another old crybaby who was lucky to have been paid attention by GEJ...His reputation isn't worth the very shoes of GEJ right now, ask Ban ki moon and Obama.So who's the bigger person now?
Thieffnubu- A big thieff and a firm discliple of nepotism and capitalism who will never get to the status of Awo,ever.Nigerians just brought economic chains for their necks.
Amaechi- Nothing worse than having a judas in your team,a repugnant,rapacious and reprehensible charlatan who not only sacrificed the goodwill of his people but is willing to sell them to the highest bidder.
Buhari-He still an illiterate.....Nothing much to write since he arrogantly refused to sell his manifesto via debate even his staunchest supporter don't have any clue what the manifesto is all about.
We prefer Shekau to all this corrupt slavemasters up there ^^^…GEJ "s architect was Shekau....what an irony.[/b] [/color]

Chinemeokpann:
Hmmmmm

Chidiebere?? Wicked Boy

cc:scatterboss

reborn1

customized13

Chinemeokpann:


Tomakint how are you?

How is life?

onatisi:
bros ,when I look at what is going to happen on the 28th ,I can't help but shake my head in pity for apc. I have been telling ppl,this will be the heaviest defeat for apc,the party won't survive what is going to happen . Hardly will buhari win 12states ,if he does it will be a miracle. There will be absolutely no sensible reason to head to court after the results are released . The margin will be too wide ,apc will crumble and this will be the political funeral of many apc politicians and leaders,their names will never be heard of again in nigeria politics. Where apc feels and think they will win most is where they will lose the heaviest. Bros Just wait and see.

PassingShot:
It is pure political naivety or deliberate self deceit for anyone to think that GEJ will win the SW in this election. I am currently doing an analysis of how the swing states will likely vote but here is a pointer:

Lagos State – prediction is APC 60%, PDP 40%

Ogun State APC 60%, PDP 40%

Osun State APC 70%, PDP 30%

Oyo State APC 60%, PDP 40%

Ondo APC 55%, PDP 45%

Ekiti State APC 45%, PDP 55%


Overall, APC will secure nothing less than 60% of total votes to PDP's 40%.

DVanguard:
GEJ to win South West is a very difficult task but politics is a game which requires major and minor players. Lots of factors are against GEJ winning SW.
There are two major schools of thoughts in the South West;
1. The regional champions who believe they need to grow from their performance in the region to national politics. (The Progressives led by Tinubu)
2. The national champions who believe they can muscle they national spread on the regional SW politics. (The Conservatives led by Obj).
The two minority schools of thoughts in the SW;
1. The disgruntled or out of favour champions that falls out due to power play in their respective states in the progressive camp. (Progressive fallout – SDP and Afenifere)
2. The selected few that due to their closeness to the President and the fallout of their seeking relevance by taking order from Ota while they can do that with their closeness to the Presidency. (Conservative fallout)
South West politics is very dynamic; lots of factors determine their voting pattern. Local election cannot be used as a yardstick to decide their voting pattern. Most times their votes are determined by the value and quality of the candidate in the National Politics.
Factors SW consider when choosing candidate nationally based on history of their voting pattern since 1999 – 2011.
1. Perceived victim of victimization by the particular group/zone of people against a candidate. (for example yar’adua’s cabal against GEJ 2010).
2. National policies like fuel subsidy. (Fuel price in SW region is most times within the regulated price because of the understanding of its sensitivity of the policy to them).
3. They are most times less concerned about the National Politics as long as their local champion delivers on their said promises. (If one of their local champions is involved then they tend to partake).
4. They check the performance of the candidates based on the current reality on ground and pinch their tent with the one that will defend their interest most.
5. Political leaders are respected based on the perspective of the area within the regions they control. Political leader must have contributed meaningful to the area or state he belongs to, he must be seen to be humble and not abusive and must be seen to have a sense of direction.

GEJ lost the battle for SW by committing the worst blunder by allowing two major gladiators in a region to fight him. (Obj & Tinubu). Tinubu relevance in SW politics started 2003 when he was the only governor to survive the tactical blunder committed by his party members (AD) and Afenifere. Since then he had made his in root to the hearts of SW by producing Governors of impeccable characters and known for excellence in their professional field before joining politics. These are some of the factors that affect PDP in some of the state elections. Tinubu has been successful even in the face of defeat in Ondo and Ekiti election. Ondo Election was not about Tinubu but the exemplary performance of the governor Mimiko against an unknown Akeredolu (a legal luminary), it was a political blunder while that of Ekiti state is a politics that I don’t understand but the popularity of Fayose cannot be overlooked regardless of his thug like character. (Might be linked to the dissatisfaction of the civil servants against fayemi’s policy).
Obasanjo might not be relevant in the local politics of SW but he has always been the stabilizing factor in the SW conservative party. He single handed ensured the relevance of PDP in SW with finance and political position giving to his lieutenants. His inability to show significant development in the SW has not made him accepted as the Leader of Yoruba’s after being the President of Nigeria and them voting en-mass for him 2003. He has been a major source of success of PDP in the SW.

State by state analysis will be presumed on five factors namely;
1. Performance
2. Political structure
3. Political gladiators
4. Perspective of the ordinary SW.
5. Ethnicity/religion

EKITI;
Ekiti state will be a very tight race. The charisma and the do-or-die attitude of the Governor will play a major role, either positive or negative march 28 will decide. The incumbent will have a lot on his way because he still enjoys the goodwill of his people based on his flawless victory in his election. The negative aspect of it is that fayose have not been able to manage his success within his party rank. The state primaries have caused lot of problem between him and some of the gladiators that helped him during his election. Like Senator Arise and Senator Gbenga Aluko etc. He runs the state PDP like his personal property. He calls the shot which can go well for him or work against him. The opposition in the state have succeeded in painting him in bad light among the elite which has a minimal impact in local politics but heavy impact in National politics. The APC succeeded in mending fence with their arch rival LP candidate, he is back into their fold. The perspective of an average Yoruba man politically still believes in the school of thoughts of Awolowo, which Tinubu’s group have clung to over time. If APC follows Awolowo's ideology is a discussing for another day.
Finally, since 2011 politically the SW have been marginalised from National politics and no meaning full development in Ekiti from the Federal Govt., and there is this noise of ‘na our son make he dey there’ wont they want their fellow ethnic person be there too.

VERDICT:
Fayose is loved as a person but his ability to convince his people to vote GEJ is another task to see his doggedness against all odds.
If he succeeds PDP 55% while APC 45%, but if he fails PDP 35% APC 65%.

ONDO;

Ondo State is a state that the governor has lost his goodwill from the people due to lots of labour issue. The movement of from LP to PDP has weakling his political strength. The people he met in PDP moved to APC and some of the aggrieved members of his former LP who could not get recognition based on the movement from LP to PDP fell out and joined APC. Formerly the politics of Ondo state is shared along senatorial zones. Ondo North is the strong base of APC led by Boroface and co, Ondo Central is the strong base of LP led by the Gov himself Mimiko while Ondo South is led by late Agagu camp PDP. The current fall out has made APC strong in two senatorial zones while PDP Ondo Central.
Mimiko is the all in all today in Ondo PDP, while APC has leaders in every zone of the strength of Mimiko (but not as strong as mimiko). Their combination would defeat the campaign strategy of mimiko in National politics which can be impossible in Local politics. The problem with PDP in SW will be on what performance bases he will campaign. If he as a Governor campaigned based on his achievement in his state what will he campaign with as the president’s achievement in Ondo state.
The love his people had for him 2012 is lost which will play also a major role in his ability to convince the electorate. Our son syndrome will also play a major role.
The perspective of GEJ in this area is very poor. Forget the endorsement of falae and afenifere, Falae has never won any election he sponsored since 2003 in Akure. He is respected but that has never transcended to votes.

VERDICT;
PDP 30% APC 70%

OSUN ;

This is a no go area for PDP. Sen. Omisore is the only political gladiator in PDP. Omisore will have to slug it out with the Governor and the interest of the God father of APC VP Osinbanjo town. The other senatorial zone is a complete no go area for PDP.
Osun state is a complete lock down area for APC. Lots of factors favour APC. Discussing this state is a waste of energy.

VERDICT;
PDP 20% APC 80%

OYO;

This is a state that parades lots of gladiators in different zones of the state. But PDP have played lots of bad politics earlier which back fired against them. This a state that is Muslim dominated and religion sometimes plays a factor in their choice of candidature. PDP also played the card of APC frustrating the interest of Yoruba’s by blocking the emergency of their daughter Mulikat as Speaker of the House. Today, APC chose a Yoruba man as VP which is higher and have significant importance than speaker. I don’t know how PDP will convince them to vote GEJ when they have a fellow ethnic nationality in a higher position. (They can’t still understand the advantage of Bankole to SW when he was Speaker).
Oyo State is classified into 4 zones. Ibadan, Oyo town, Ogbomosho, Oke-ogun and they are led by different gladiators. Ibadan is a strong hold of Ladoja and the incumbent Gov Ajumobi with voting power of 60 – 40% respectively. The most interesting thing is that Ibadan determines one-third of the voting strength with 11 LG. Ladoja will never canvass for PDP or APC because he knows their success in Presidential election will affect his chances. His bosom friend that led to his fallout with Obj is now a leader in APC (Atiku). The PDP Gov candidate Teslim is a nobody and carries no weight compared to the earlier two candidates in Ibadan. Therefore it is a clean a battle for APC in Ibadan.
Oyo town is locked down for APC because of the cordial relationship between the Oba and the Incumbent gov. This is the only town in SW that the Oba has lots of influence in the election in his domain. His son is a candidate of APC contesting for Fed. Rep.
Ogbomosho is another big town in SW and Oyo state. The big fish in this town is Alao Akala. His fallout with PDP is a big blow and will do anything to ensure that PDP does not win Presidential and Senatorial election because of his ambition to become the governor. The next strong gladiator to him is Hon. Buhari (APC) who is contesting for senate. He is not a match for Akala but he can climb on Akala’s grand stand against PDP senatorial candidate from Oke-ogun and his gubernatorial ambition.
Oke-ogun is a battle ground between PDP and APC. The deputy governor is from oke ogun while the incumbent senator is also from Oke ogun. Oke ogun have always been a APC enclave until Senator Agboola Hosea broke the jinx. Winning local election is different from national election, especially when the perspective of the PDP Presidential candidate in these areas is very poor.
Religion and ethnicity will play a major role.

VERDICT;
PDP 30% APC 70%

OGUN;

There is little to talk about here because, a son of the soil is involved. He is not just a son of the soil but a renowned professional religiously and excellent in his career. The fallout of Osoba from APC cannot deem the chance in the presidential race (it might in guber) because Osoba cannot work alongside with Gbenga Daniel. SDP National might adopt GEJ but Osoba will never because 2003 election mistake is still fresh in his memory.

VERDICT;
PDP 20% APC 80%

LAGOS;

History as always showed that candidate that Tinubu supports have always won the Presidential Election in Lagos state since 1999. Obj won Lagos in 2003 because AD did not field any Presidential Candidate. 2007 PDP lost Lagos state to Atiku because of Tinubu’s influence.
Tinubu strength in Lagos state can only be matched by Late Engr. Funsho Williams. Who understand the workings of Yoruba politics by not attempting to join the PDP at the National (he might get contracts but ensured he did not meddle into National Politics). He played his politics within Lagos and has the grassroot structure like Tinubu. He and Tinubu were contemporaries in AD 1998 before he left for PDP. Since his demise PDP Lagos has not been able to muscle such grass root structure again. The structure merged with Tinubu in 2007.
PDP needs to up their game which is already late. The fuel subsidy protest has painted the Fed government in bad light. The inability of the FG to bring the cabals, fraudsters to justice and the promised refinery is a big minus. This state is the commercial heart of the nation. Propaganda can’t fly to an extent because they feel the effect of government policies faster than any state in the federation. The state is blessed with different people all over the country because of his economic advantage which is perceived to be the hard work of the ruling party APC. Most of the eligible voters are knowledgeable, they are vast in one aspect or the other and well informed.

VERDICT;
PDP 30% APC 70%.

CONCLUSION;
Personally I don’t see PDP winning SW because of lots of factors that cannot be discussed at once. GEJ does not have a well trusted, respected Elder from Yoruba Land that some people will listen to across the 6 states in his team. No matter how u view it, Yoruba’s look up to some people because of their achievement in Life and success. Allowing Tinubu and OBj to work against him in the SW is the worst that can happen to a person.

Buhari/Osinbajo will win SW vote’s landslide.



@barcanista, @Gbawe

tomakint:
APC can NEVER win in my Ondo State this I know for sure!

tomakint:
The political calculations of INEC as clearly spelt out in INEC electoral guidelines will definitely favour the man of the moment, Dr Goodluck Ebele Jonathan at least going by the results released so far.......but really, I find Ondo Presidential results unbelievable.....just stating the fact. Welldone bayswater, onatisi etc for the lively debates.

peppyluv02:
Save your story for your ass lickers you pathetic tribalist. No be only Igbo GF,even Igbo GM.
Why will I want to know you?
Grand master of nairaland tribal war.
Since you have my identity why don't you come and silence me? Are you tired of posting pictures from Facebook?

Since you are hiding and forming boss, send one of your boys to me without a weapon and watch me send him back to you without a tooth. Nonsense. I didn't quote you but you came here to look for trouble. You think I am afraid of your threats?

peppyluv02:
Mr Ibrahim I am better than you yoruba hypocrite that hates the Igbos so much,you are the father of e war on nairaland. You are one of those who brought tribal hatred and war on nairaland even before I registered. How many monikers do you have?they are all for e war. So,the HBP preaching is for your likes because unlike you,the bashing ends here for me..I have a good rapport with my colleagues from other tribes unlike you whom I am sure have no single Igbo friend! yours is a real life affair! You go after those who counter your opinion on nairaland,threatening them in real life , you waste precious time a eps energy digging deep to find out their real identity, going to their Facebook page to upload their pics and post here. And you have the guts to preach peace?? It is your likes on nairaland that really opened my eyes to the hate the Igbos face in this country.
Even on Facebook where everyone's details are open,we argue,throw insults and settle but no one threatens. Since you know me so well,why don't you come and kill me,that's the only way you can silence me. You and your co e war lords turned me to a tribalist because I have to defend my tribe and let the world know that what you people spew here about the Igbos are false.

Deny it all you want,70% of Nigerians are tribalist. May God deliver us from tribalism. Amen.

maestroferddi:
Dey fool yourself dey go.

On Saturday you shall see the result of kneeling before Christian leaders and coming to claim Lagos.

When your Buhari was wasting his time reading prepared speeches at Chatam House, the rug got pull from under his feet.

He will weep on Sunday.

maestroferddi:
Tinubu and Buhari's lust for power will undo APC when they fail in this election.

If APC had fielded a younger and more credible candidate, they would have stood a better chance of challenging PDP in 2019.

With this Buhari gamble, PDP will still be in power in the next 20 years.
Watch as APC disintegrates immediately after the election. The fact that power has been zoned to the north in 2019 will hardly help matters.

The PDP candidate in 2019 will be inheriting watertight structures in the SE, SS, NC and a reasonable traction in the SW which will be sufficient to beat any other northerner challenging him from another party.

maestroferddi:
Stop wasting your time.

The day of reckoning is less than two days away.

We shall see who are the better analysts.

Buhari would not win this election. You can always quote me.

maestroferddi:
You are the one that needs your head thoroughly examined by a seasoned psychiatrist.

Jonathan would certainly win Lagos and Oyo.

Now put a finger on that...

maestroferddi:
Just like Doyin Okupe said in one media chat, time-honoured trends invariably play out in politics.

There are pundits and analysts who have been in this game for so long. We don't bandy words with the vociferous crowd but rely on the fact that the future/events always vindicate the objective.

This piece mirrors an earlier expose' I did on the likely outcome of the election in the South West. As is expected, I was barracked and called names.

PointB:
Kiddish!

omazus:
Your point is the real definition of chameleon.

PointB:
Lol,

You can say whatever you like, but Buhari remains a semi-illiterate, until the certificate issue is conclusively resolved.

PointB:
True, but that does not deny the fact that he's an old, frail semi-illiterate!

peppyluv02:
See yorubas and Hausas,grand masters of tribalism talking about progressive and one Nigeria .
ekekweke......I laugh in Igbo.

PointB:
My people say "after the race you count the miles." I think those who celebrate electoral victory as 'change' are misguided. The real change comes from the policies and their implementation, not from the euphoria of potentially Pyrrhic victory.

I'll keep fingers cross and watch how the frail looking semi-illiterate and his bunch of rogues proceed!

lyntiffany:
I love this comment, stand on what you believe learnt that from my able president gej. You know the second name of yorubas ?Chameleon. They are neither here or there.