The phrase that Nigerian militant group Boko Haram had been "technically defeated" is ringing increasingly hollow.
Seven months into his first term in 2015 President Muhammadu Buhari coined the term, but the group and its offshoots have never gone away.
The military has managed to retake territory and dislodged the fighters from some of their hideouts. But a recent spike in deadly violence, focused in the north-east, where the Islamist group began its insurgency in 2009, has led many to ask what is at the root of the authorities' failure.
Already this year there have been nearly 100 attacks, according to one estimate. A number of military bases as well as towns, including Geidam and Damasak, a hub for aid workers, have been overrun. Hundreds have been killed and weapons, food and medicines have all been looted.
There are six main reasons why Boko Haram has not been defeated despite the government claims, experts say.
1. Root causes not addressed
An over-reliance on a military strategy to confront Boko Haram is at the heart of the state's inability to deal with the threat, argues security analyst Kabiru Adamu from Beacon Consulting.
"That's why, unfortunately, almost 11 or 12 years into the counter-insurgency operation, we are not seeing major successes," he told the BBC.
"Yes, the military will dislodge the terrorists but then because they are still able to exercise influence, they're able to recruit, they're able to generate funding, they're able to acquire weaponry, then they regroup."
Experts say that it is not that people in the north-east sympathise with Boko Haram and its splinter group, the Islamic State's West Africa Province, but that neglect from the authorities and desperation often drive people into the hands of the militants.
"The reality is that to address insurgency or terrorism, you need more than military operation. You need to address the root causes of the insurgency," Mr Adamu says.
"Unfortunately we haven't seen enough efforts in that regard."
He points to a lack of good governance that leaves the population impoverished, frustrated and uneducated as "one huge root cause".
There are major government initiatives that are meant to speed up development in the north-east, but little progress has been made.
There is also the National Counter-Terrorism Strategy which also involves economic development and counter-radicalisation, in addition to the deployment of troops. But Mr Adamu says it appears the strategy is not being fully implemented.
Others, like Security analyst at the Tony Blair Institute for Change, Bulama Bukarti, argue that along with deradicalisation there should be a huge surge in military activity similar to what was seen in Iraq and Syria when the Islamic State group's so-called caliphate was dismantled.
2: Boko Haram's ability to recruit
The endemic poverty in parts of the region as well as the insurgents' violent methods enable the continued recruitment of generation after generation of fighters, experts say.
"People are readily available for recruitment just to survive," security expert Abdullahi Yalwa said, citing the problems of joblessness and poor governance.
Mr Bukarti highlights the "systematic campaign of forced recruitment of young people".
Borno state Governor, Babagana Zullum, recently told the BBC that the insurgents were even recruiting people who had previously been forced from their homes by the conflict itself. 3: Lack of equipment Even when it comes to the fighting there is the problem of weaponry, according to Mr Adamu, who says that the military is ill-equipped.
Research by his firm, Beacon Consulting, found that there were about 6.5 million small arms and light weapons in circulation in Nigeria but just 586,000 are in the hands of security forces.
It is not the case that all of the remainder are being used by the Islamist militants, but the figures highlight that there are a huge amount of weapons available that are not in the military's control.
Mr Adamu also says that "what we are seeing based on evidence is that these [armed] groups have a higher calibre of weapons, unfortunately, than the military".
4: Corruption Corruption may be one thing that is holding the military back when it comes to improving its equipment. It is suspected that a lot of money meant to bolster the campaign against Boko Haram has ended up in officials' pockets.
Mr Yalwa says that in some cases the fight against Boko Haram is not being fought with "sincerity" and "it seems some people have turned it into merchandise and are into self-enrichment".
In recent years, the military was hamstrung by a US arms embargo over human rights abuses. President Buhari and his predecessor, Goodluck Jonathan, both complained that this was hampering counter-insurgency efforts.
But this was lifted by President Donald Trump in 2018 and as a result Nigeria is expecting the delivery of Super Tucano aircraft. This should build on the military's air superiority, which Mr Adamu believes is not being used to its full advantage.
Although there are claims that even this superiority is not paying off.
5: Military strategy not working Mr Bukarti told the BBC the insurgents appear to have "understood and adapted to the pattern of military airstrikes" and are taking advantage of the difficult terrain in Nigeria's north-east to evade military attacks.
There are also other aspects of the strategy that have been criticised.
Over the past year the army has been withdrawing troops from smaller bases and concentrating them in large formations known as Super Camps.
This strategy was adopted in early 2020 when soldiers were under regular attack and their weapons were being stolen.
However, it has left vast swathes of rural communities unprotected, analysts say.
"We have evidence suggesting an increase in attacks on communities between the period when the Super Camps were created and now. So clearly the Super Camps left the rural communities more vulnerable," argues Mr Adamu.
This has also devastated the livelihoods of people in north-east Nigeria who rely on fishing and crop farming, and had an impact on food production.
The military is also hampered by gaps in intelligence gathering as well as being unable to plug information leaks.
This means that sometimes it appears that "the insurgents are ahead of the military", Mr Yalwa says.
The army disputes this alleged problem. Its spokesperson Mohammed Yarima recently said that "troops are in high fighting spirit and determined to as ever to clear the [north-east] region and the country of vestiges of Boko Haram terrorists".
6: Boko Haram's influence is spreading Adding to the problems of dealing with Boko Haram is that the insurgency, once confined to the north-east, appears to be spreading.
There are concerns that armed criminal gangs in other parts of the north and centre of the country are forging links with the militants.
Last year, Boko Haram released a video claiming a presence in Niger state which is far from its usual area of operations. The authorities there issued a statement in March saying Boko Haram fighters had infiltrated the state occupying forests and attacking communities.
Last December, then army chief Lt Gen Yusuf Tukur Buratai suggested that the fight against Boko Haram could continue for another 20 years if the civilian and military approaches were not better co-ordinated.
The hard-pressed residents of north-eastern Nigeria will hope that warning does not come to pass.
Alusiizizi: Suicide bombers? Did you even bother to listen to the speech? His words are being twisted to push some Anti-Biafra propaganda by the original poster, and you would have discovered this for your self, if you actually listened to his words instead of an interpretation.
To paraphrase what someone said "....for every suicide bomber that Boko Haram produce , IPOB will produce 10 "
The Jigawa State Hisbah, on Friday, said the consumption of alcohol is prohibited in all parts of the state.
The Hisbah confiscated over 308 bottles of assorted alcoholic drinks in a raid on a hotel in Gumel Local Government Area of the state.
The State Hisbah commander, Malam Ibrahim Dahiri, disclosed this to newsmen in Dutse on Saturday.
According to him, the items were confiscated during an enforcement tour carried out by its operatives at one of the hotels in the area at about 10 a.m.
He added that no arrest was made during the operation as the suspected owners and users ran away on sighting the operatives.
"Our operatives have raided a hotel in Gumel town on Gujungu road where we succeeded in confiscating 308 bottles of assorted beer. But we were not able to catch anyone as those present took to their heels after they sighted our men. I’m using this medium to remind people that consumption of beer remains prohibited in all parts of Jigawa and Hisbah will continue to enforce that,’’ Dahiru said.
The commander added that the confiscated drinks were handed over to the police in the area for further action.
According to Malam Dahiru, the command would continue to ensure that people stop engaging in immoral acts and other vices that were capable of destroying society.
Established to enforce Sharia law, Hisbah recently banned stylish haircuts, sagging of trousers, playing of music at social events by disk jockeys and seized tricycles from riders for adorning them with pictures considered to be obscene and against the tenents of Islam in some states.
Hisbah also banned commercial motorcyclists and tricycle riders from carrying two women at a time.
This was in addition to other unusual directives reeled out by the Islamic police.
Sheikh Ahmed Gumi, cleric and a major negotiator in the release of abducted students of Federal College of Forestry Mechanization, has said that the Federal Government’s shoot on sight order has been impeding negotiation to have the bandits lay down arms, even though he admitted that no ransom was paid for the release of the students.
The cleric said that the bandits were ready to negotiate. He said that there was not much encouragement especially with the shoot on sight order of the federal government.
He said, “If the government can improve on their stand, we can have a smooth negotiation. We have to bear a lot of their demands because we are dealing with people that are not formally educated.”
Gumi in a chat on Arise Television on Sunday said that no ransom was paid to the bandits for the release of the students. “As we are trying to negotiate with the leaders of the bandits, parents were impatient and their interference made the negotiating period longer because when we got to a particular point, a parent would call to say, ‘I am ready to pay’ so their inference caused a lot of delay. We don’t know what parents did but we followed a system that made it difficult for them to say, no. There was no ransom from our side but we don’t know what the parents did behind,” he said.
He also said that there was no fatality except for a notorious bandit who tried to molest a lady, and was killed. “The only casualty in the fracas was a bandit. The bandits didn’t want to be seen as criminals but as negotiators,” Gumi said.
While urging the government to address the demands of the bandits, Gumi said, “When you bombard forests you kill women and children and the bandits are hardened. The best way is dialogue and engagements. The government should sit down with them to negotiate, talk about schools, health care, boreholes; these are the things they are asking of. They are also asking for amnesty whereby they would not be pursued by law after they have laid down their weapons. Proper engagements by the government through intermediaries that they trust, like traditional Fulani leaders, will end banditry.”
Gireiboy: I have never met or seen an Igbo person that is not ill-mannered, obnoxious and looking killable haha! in my entire life. So, those that mean good mannered igbo's do not exist?
Perhaps those are the ones you meet in your limited illiterate circles.
You can't threaten a Nuclear Power - OIC aint seen nothing yet. Israel is a nation that is willing to take down the whole middle east to prevent the repitition of the holocaust in which they lost 6 million souls.
AMINDA: So why deny that you weren't cheering him on until now? Do not quit at this point, follow through with [b]your convictions all the wa[/b]y. Nnamdi Kanu says he will achieve Biafra by any means necessary, including suicide bombing and terrorism. He has never hidden his intention on that. Some of us were just smart enough to know from the get-go that he was a terrorist and a foreign trained mole.
What is my conviction ? Fairness, equity and justice . And if it means we break away from the shit hole called Nigeria, the better, but we cannot do so without a strategy, partners and equipment. Living in Nigeria is a hell for many young people. Many of us abroad are sustaining our youngsters back home so that they don't go into crime, or join a violent militia group and risk their lives.
I just started listening to him 2 months ago, so the news that he has always been for suicide bombing is novel to me hence this article. It is unthinkable.
Fact remains that Nigeria is a retrogressive cesspit of backwardness, illiteracy, corruption, religious fanaticism and mayhem. The earlier it breaks up or restructures, the better for everyone.
AMINDA: Yes, I can. The below posts were you a few days ago. What changed? The internet always keep receipts.
And ?
I stand by what I wrote - if an army is being sent to murder people en masse , should they not defend themselves ? That's very different from asking them to be suicide bombers or to randomly murder security forces with no provocation.
If Nnamdi Kanu was more strategic, if we had a strong partner, if we had heavy weapons - I will be 100% in support of driving out the invading Nigerian army.
AMINDA: It may have put you off because you still have an atom of grey matter in you but bear in mind that this same speech has just radicalized hardcore IPOB youths who dote on his every word. Watch out for potential suicide bombers in the South East.
Boko haram brainwashes its fighters through radical preachings to strap bombs on themselves, Nnamdi Kanu is doing the same through Radio Biafra. Watch out for another Charles Taylor in the making. A CIA trained mass media propagandist and potential war criminal. You cheered this on until now, do not back away. Accept responsibility.
Many of us have been flirting with Nnamdi Kanu’s IPOB for a while now. There is so much injustice and poverty in Igbo land that all solutions are considered in trying to resolve the plight of the people. Massob and other groups that came before IPOB with peace and protest were killed en masse by blood thirsty illiterate and poorly trained soldiers . So when IPOB came with a more belligerent approach to resolving matters, many of us embraced their strategy and began to support some of their policies.
However, Nnamdi Kanu’s broadcasts are filled with unbridled rage, myth, hate and viciousness which becloud the message that he is trying to deliver. While he is indeed admired for this courage in addressing the pertinent issues that affect the South East, and standing up to power without remorse or favour, his constant abuse of Africans , Nigerians and blacks generally is seriously detrimental to any international support or sympathy he may have gained or could gain if he had taken a more constructive approach. Furthermore , calling blacks dumb, monkeys , fools etc is surely not the method a rational, sane and educated person should use to disseminate information to the people he claims to love.
The last straw for me was his speech this evening which appeared to be a call for suicide bombers and suicide missions. This is anathema to Igbo culture and Igbo religion, we don’t encourage suicide. His speech was nothing short of a call for death en masse and by intent, on the basis of myth and delusions. Asking Igbos to accept that there will be huge loss of life without a credible solution and well equipped armoury is irresponsible and shameful.
Nnamdi Kanu has also exposed increasing levels of illiteracy amongst the youth due to rapidly falling academic standards, a decrepit education system and social media addiction; this makes them vulnerable to any wind of doctrine that flows from the mouth of Nnamdi Kanu. Exploiting the youth to achieve your aims with no respect for the value of their life is cruelty.
In addition, the random murder of security forces and call for 2000 heads to bury Ikonso is not what an educated rational leader would ever say , it’s barbaric , diabolical, and creates the impression that all Igbos are savages baying for bloodshed.
I cannot in good conscience allow Nnamdi Kanu lead Igbo youth on a suicide mission; I can no longer in good conscience cheer at the death of security forces and the destruction of property and innocent life.
We want Biafra , we can get it , but it will take time, resources, planning , subtlety , strategy, negotiation and partnerships. Right now we need to protect what we have and move in a more logical and informed direction.
blues234: Nnamdi Kanu is blood thirsty and wish Igbos to die more, so he can keep his enterprise floating. His course is just, but we have traveled the part of war before, and we say ozomenna. Nnamdi Kanu in his usual blood thirsty way has vowed to sacrifice 5 million Igbos to get Biafra. How can a man be this destructive. Can we count the numbers of brothers we have lost to Nigerian army rifles and bayonets, since Kanu came on board? The question begging for answer, is there no other way to agitate for Biafra without bloodshed? There are myriads of way to agitate for Biafra, intelligently and win international support. I liken him to Hitler, a man that hypnotized Germany, with his flowery tongue, , militarized Germany, and finally destroyed Germany. If Nnamdi Kanu is serious on Biafra, why is he going solo? What makes him thinks by attracting war to South East, we will get Biafra? If he is so pained by the death of Ikonso, the best is to sue FG in ICC. Justice can be delayed but never denied. Is there any need for war? of course, no!!! We were at the top of our game in the 60s, before those naive Majors struck, we lost everything, including some of our Igbo speaking brothers. Till date, we are still fighting to get them back to the fold, a seemly impossible task. It may be worst this time, because, obviously nobody is prepared for another show down. Biafra is possible, through the power of negotiation and international diplomatic lobby. Do I support Biafra, a big yes, but I don't and will never support Nnamdi Kanu. May God save Igboland from these blood thirsty group. Amen.
I agree with you, his speech today has put me off , it was dangerous .
So I am listenting to Nnamdi Kanu speak right now, and he is making some bold claims and asking all South Easterners to be prepared to make the ultimate sacrifice. It is a bit worriying to me and reminds me of Jim Jones who led his supporters to their ultimate death through religious brainwashing ; though this might be a different situation. People need to do their investigation and be fully informed and convinced before they take any action.
My beloved Youth - do not be hasty to act, think, consider and be careful. Do not fight against the Nigerian Army, in 7 days it will be all over and they will go back to their barracks. Do not be TEMPTED INTO VIOLENCE. Do not endanger yourselves and your families.
Some of his updates :
• He has suggested that the Nigerian Army has recruited terrorists to fight against the South East. • He has all but in name, put the South East on a war footing • The Nigerian Army is making a pincer move as they approach the South East • He predicts a mass slaughter by the Army but also predicts that the Army will suffer huge losses that will attract the world media • Nnamdi Kanu will be on the ground to lead the battle himself • He has asked volunteers to go on high risk solo attacks • He said that the recent eye watering deal Nigeria made with the British is a bribe for their support against the South East • Biafran intelligence is flowing from insider information in government and military circles and the warning is for full preparation • All Nigerian assets are now under surveillance in the South East
Yoruba Ronu Leadership Forum, a socio-political group has thrown its weight behind the recent call by the southern governors to the federal government to immediately convoke a national dialogue. The Forum said that the dialogue was the country’s last chance to save itself from disintegration.
It said that though the government would be funding the dialogue, its membership must be devoid of past and present political officeholders. According to the group, it would be the call of the delegates drawn from the ethnic nationalities to put up a new constitution and spell out how the Peoples of Nigeria shall live together. The position of the Forum was contained in a statement signed by its President, Akin Malaolu and made available to Vanguard Newspapers on Sunday. The Forum further said that the country was facing hard times and accused President Muhammadu Buhari of missing in the midst of the challenges.
While alleging fraud in information dissemination, the Forum urged the President to speak to Nigerians, saying that his Spokesman can’t be trusted to be speaking his mind. The statement read in full: “Nigeria our country as it is today is now on the road full of thorns. Expulsion and displacements of people and the possibility of war can be a harrowing experience hardly forgotten by those who may have experienced the same in a country they grew up in, in a community they took as their homeland. We must confess that nothing seems to be moving or clearly seen to be changing anymore. “President Buhari is largely missing and it is difficult to trust those who are speaking for him if truly they are speaking his mind. “The fraud in information dissemination is visibly in the open. It is therefore imperative for the President himself to show more interest in communicating one on one with Nigerians who he claimed to be representing. “The recent meeting of the southern governors is needful and timely, more so when altercations of tongues rule the waves.
Their call for true federalism and restructuring gladdens our hearts and their suggestions are not new but an added voice to what can help bring peace to our nation. “It is not out of place to clamour for justice, fairness and equity for all federating units in any nation. Uneven standards, terrorism from one section of our country and other social vices including corruption are prominent under President BUHARI’S administration. “Any leader or leaders thinking that the calls are mere expressions of opinions should have their heads examined. “The call for National dialogue amongst others must not be delayed we repeat. Such a dialogue must be arranged by government-funded by it but not supervised by it. “The inclusion of political officeholders past and present must be absent. It will be the duty of attendees from ethnic nationalities to put up a new constitution and spell out in it how we shall live together.
“This national dialogue is our last chance to save Nigeria as an indivisible nation in our own view. “At this stage, we urge all agitators to redirect their efforts and make meaningful contributions that can move us away from secession. “We should sheath our swords while remaining ever vigilant. The killing of law officers especially the police and others must cease forthwith. We do not agree with such barbarian behaviour.”
Unclefemolala: I always knew that Fròg eyed man was no good, using entertainment and fake philanthropy to cover eye as he grabs land to amass wealth and women.
They are all like that - THIEVES and LAND GRABBERS
kennylesy122: Now people would start saying let hear from Ned before we continue but if na another man with no title for him hand na so so curse you go dey rain for ham now it’s ned dem say make dem hear from Ned.
Trust me this is a pattern of behaviour in Igbo land and especially Imo State. Its not a surprise.
1. Security agents come from our communities. They are like us, facing the same pressures of unemployment, a dysfunctional society, and a government of apathy in the affairs of its citizens.
2. Security agents are human, they are liable to be corrupted by bad eggs once they join the police/army/navy etc and in many cases, the pressure to comply at the expense of losing all livelihood is huge
3. Security agents are not looked after well or paid well or respected. They are as corrupt as the average Nigerian. The quality of their housing is shocking, and they are exposed to numerous hazards with no life insurance, no guarantee that their families will be properly looked after on their demise.
4. They are the products of a brutal system designed and engineered first by the British and then by the government cabal to subjugate the people, while the treasury and resources that belong to us all are looted.
5. Desperation is something I have personally experienced in my early life, and when you are on low pay, temptation is easy to fall into when money is involved.
6. When you kill a security man or woman you have deprived already suffering families of their bread winner and future.
Now I understand what many of you will say; but they are killing us, they are depriving our families, they are humiliating us. Then my advice to you is, deal with the head and the feet will follow, deal with the specific threats; example a specific police station or specific personnel responsible for brutal killings and murders etc .
I know many security forces personnel who will not hurt a fly and they will do everything they can to protect and help the community.
Please stop killing our brothers and sisters in the security forces, go after the terrorists in their midst. Go after the kidnappers and cultists in our own communities who terrorise their brothers and sisters. Go after any Fulani herdsmen or group of herdsmen who destroy the lives and livelihood of our people. And resist any direct and offensive action by a hostile force to take your land or your property.
Rosskiiku: Your problem is you are an unschooled tout who types off the top of his head with zero actual knowledge.
Take electricity for instance. At independence in 1960, Nigeria had not ONE power plant.
The colonialists simply imported industrial generators to power their GRAs, Ikoyi etc.
Those generators raised our 'national generating capacity' to 220 megawatts at independence.
The rest of Nigeria lived on lantern and candle.
Our first power plant was Kainji Dam, commissioned in 1964 by the Balewa administration.
Scores of plants have been and are being built subsequently, with generating capacity well over 12,000 megawatts, and maximum power distributed in a day over 5,000 mw.
Access to electricity is 57% today compared to 0.1% at independence.
Not sufficient, but most certainly PROGRESS, and far from your illiterate ''0%'' score.
The rest of your 'points' are similarly BOGUS and easy to dismantle, but require little further attention.
You really are a disingenuous shameless liar. Your incoherent response above is all I need to know how clueless and deluded you are.
21st century and an average of 2 hours of light per day?? With huge plumes of carbon monoxide gas from millions of generators polluting the atmosphere, causing health problems - especially cancer and further reducing the already low mortality rate.
No change, no strategy, and no direction. My ‘friend’ go and sleep.
I don't hate Nigeria; if the leaders can work to fix the solutions with all dedication, we will support them , otherwise they must be replaced ASAP.
Politics › Nigeria's Boko Haram Militants: Six Reasons They Have Not Been Defeated by SEasternVictory(op): 5:00pm On May 17, 2021
