₦airaland Forum

NTSA:
Kenyan generals and military strategists recognised the problem in DRC to be a political one that needed a political solution,@eacrf_DRC
actually did its job. It secured territory, it protected civilians, it got the combatants to the table. Basically, EACRF guaranteed peace.

The force was supposed to act as a tool of diplomacy to compel compliance to the political agreement.
DRC however wanted an auxiliary force that they could control (and not pay for) that they could use to attack Rwanda. The Congolese weren't and aren't interested in peace.

The commander of the East African Community military force deployed in eastern DR Congo has said political and diplomatic processes are “the first priority” among efforts to pacify the country’s restive region.

Maj Gen Jeff Nyagah, from Kenya, said the military option does not always guarantee peace.
“Sometimes, war does not necessarily bring peace. You have to pursue diplomacy,” Gen Nyagah told journalists in Goma on Wednesday, November 16.

He said there were a number of options to end the conflict in eastern DR Congo, a region that has known no peace for over two decades and is home to multiple armed groups.
The current conflict between government forces FARDC and the M23 rebel group has intensified since October 20. An estimated 188,000 people have been internally displaced.
The political process was “the first priority,” among the options to be considered, Gen Nyagah said, referring to the Nairobi talks between the Congolese government and the armed groups operating in the country’s east and the Luanda roadmap, which was signed in Angola in July between Rwanda and DR Congo presidents.

“The second track, and is very critical for you to note, is the issue of disarmament and demobilisation not only targeting M23 – because we seem to focus on M23. We have over 120 armed groups in eastern DRC, and they have instigated a significant degree of insecurity.

“If these two tracks fail, then we’ll automatically transit to the third track, that is military action.”

Kenya has already deployed troops in eastern DR Congo as part of the regional efforts. The latest cohort arrived in Goma last week.

Kenya’s former President Uhuru Kenyatta, the EAC facilitator in the eastern DR Congo peace process, has called on all the armed groups to lay down their arms and allow dialogue to take place.

The latest intense fighting between FARDC and M23 on Friday, November 11 led to further displacements. Over 100 Congolese refugees have since crossed to Rwanda, as fighting approached Goma the capital of North Kivu Province.

The Nairobi talks are expected to resume on November 21. The EAC bloc has called for inclusivity in the process for a lasting solution to take hold.

https://www.newtimes.co.rw/article/2698/news/security/political-process-key-in-fixing-dr-congo-conflict--gen-nyagah

Operation Thunder Strike 3 Update

Joint Task Force (SNA, KDF, US Army) inserted commandos in Hagar area.

JTF Team captured & destroyed an IED factory & SVBIED.

Al-Shabaab terror cell responsible (3 Kenyans + 2 Ethiopians) killed in action.

JTF Team successfully extracted.

Lurker4Long:

You'd be able to shunt aside, with nary a bother, any quarrelsome matatu.

Lurker4Long:
No idea.

Lurker4Long:
GSV develops unique Ghost armoured protected vehicle

South African armoured vehicle company Global Specialised Vehicles (GSV) is launching a new vehicle that is somewhat unique in the market as it offers high levels of protection similar to a military-grade armoured personnel carrier (APC) yet can legally be driven on the road, allowing it to be used by commercial security companies for asset protection, security, cash in transit work and more.



https://www.defenceweb.co.za/featured/gvs-develops-unique-ghost-armoured-protected-vehicle/

Shaytun:
But the Goals the EACRF is meant to achieve is not being pursued.

There were meant to be an “offensive” force deployed from Haut-Uele to South Kivu.


What they are doing now is a bare imitation of that operating as a peacekeeping force in a comparatively small part of North Kivu.

The EACRF are meant to actively assist the Congolese state government in eradicating the rebels, but now you are having a situation where they are unwilling to engage the M23 even as the rebels continue to seize more territory.

The commander of the East African Community military force deployed in eastern DR Congo has said political and diplomatic processes are “the first priority” among efforts to pacify the country’s restive region.

Maj Gen Jeff Nyagah, from Kenya, said the military option does not always guarantee peace.
“Sometimes, war does not necessarily bring peace. You have to pursue diplomacy,” Gen Nyagah told journalists in Goma on Wednesday, November 16.

He said there were a number of options to end the conflict in eastern DR Congo, a region that has known no peace for over two decades and is home to multiple armed groups.
The current conflict between government forces FARDC and the M23 rebel group has intensified since October 20. An estimated 188,000 people have been internally displaced.
The political process was “the first priority,” among the options to be considered, Gen Nyagah said, referring to the Nairobi talks between the Congolese government and the armed groups operating in the country’s east and the Luanda roadmap, which was signed in Angola in July between Rwanda and DR Congo presidents.

“The second track, and is very critical for you to note, is the issue of disarmament and demobilisation not only targeting M23 – because we seem to focus on M23. We have over 120 armed groups in eastern DRC, and they have instigated a significant degree of insecurity.

“If these two tracks fail, then we’ll automatically transit to the third track, that is military action.”

Kenya has already deployed troops in eastern DR Congo as part of the regional efforts. The latest cohort arrived in Goma last week.

Kenya’s former President Uhuru Kenyatta, the EAC facilitator in the eastern DR Congo peace process, has called on all the armed groups to lay down their arms and allow dialogue to take place.

The latest intense fighting between FARDC and M23 on Friday, November 11 led to further displacements. Over 100 Congolese refugees have since crossed to Rwanda, as fighting approached Goma the capital of North Kivu Province.

The Nairobi talks are expected to resume on November 21. The EAC bloc has called for inclusivity in the process for a lasting solution to take hold.

https://www.newtimes.co.rw/article/2698/news/security/political-process-key-in-fixing-dr-congo-conflict--gen-nyagah

Since the evacuation of the first batch of evacuees on 24th April 2023, more groups from war-torn Sudan have been arriving in the country aboard Kenya Defence Forces (KDF) plane and the Kenya Airways.

The evacuees who comprise of different nationalities including Kenyan, Tanzania, Somalia and Burundi were received by Principal Secretary State Department of Diaspora Affairs Ms. Roseline Njogu.
The PS praised them for their resilience and encouraged other Kenyans stranded in Sudan to continue registering with the State Department for Diaspora Affairs for logistics purposes noting that the evacuation process would continue over the following days.

More than 369 Kenyans have been evacuated and airlifted to Nairobi by a team of military officials in collaboration with the Foreign Affairs officials.

Faithful007:
Additional info. The guy in charge of RSF, Hamdan Dagalo brokered a deal with Russia to build a Naval Base in Sudan this year.

His boss however has been pressuring the US state Dept to suspend calls for elections, using the base plan as a pawn. Unfortunately, Hamedti was not on that page. He's too sold to Russia.

About last year, US intelligence warned that RSF was cooperating with Wagner to spread disinformation within Sudan. I don't know how seriously that was taken. But eventually the command and control of the RSF was overrun by Russian elements.

Now the results are taking shape. Someone please blame NATO for this as usual

Large-scale migration to Europe has precipitated a paradigm shift in relations between the European Union (EU) and the government of Sudan, and closer ties between both entities. This new partnership has resulted in the EU disbursing millions of euros to the Sudanese government for technical equipment and training efforts geared toward stopping the flow to Europe of migrants from Sudan and those from Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, and other countries in sub-Saharan Africa who come through Sudan.

the EU’s action plan will involve building the capacities of Sudan’s security and law enforcement agencies, including a paramilitary group known as the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which has been branded as Sudan’s primary “border force.” The EU will assist the RSF and other relevant agencies with the construction of two camps with detention facilities for migrants. The EU will also equip these Sudanese border forces with cameras, scanners, and electronic servers for registering refugees. There are legitimate concerns with these plans. Much of the EU-funded training and equipment is dual-use. The equipment that enables identification and registration of migrants will also reinforce the surveillance capabilities of a Sudanese government that has violently suppressed Sudanese citizens for the past 28 years. Sudan’s strategy for stopping migrant flows on behalf of Europe involves a ruthless crackdown by the RSF on migrants within Sudan. Dogged by persistent armed uprisings led by opponents protesting chronic inequalities in the distribution of national wealth and political power in its periphery regions, the Sudanese government has always relied on a plethora of militia groups to counter insurgencies.
The RSF is one of these militia groups. It evolved from the disparate supporter of APC militias that carried out the genocidal counterinsurgency policy of the Sudanese regime in Darfur that began in 2003.

However, in its functions and evolution, the RSF differs significantly from other militia groups employed by the government The RSF first evolved from a strike force deployed against insurgents in Darfur into a national counterinsurgency force under the operational command of Sudan’s National Intelligence and Security Services (NISS) that was tasked with fighting the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/ArmyNorth (SPLM/A-N) in South Kordofan and Blue Nile states. Then, in September 2013, the RSF was deployed against peaceful demonstrators who were protesting the Sudanese government’s removal of subsidies on basic commodities. More than 170 people were killed in September 2013, in incidents that unmasked the Sudanese regime’s dependence on the militia to quell political dissent and marked a new evolution in the role of the RSF.

Starting in 2015 and 2016, and convinced of the RSF’s effectiveness as a counterinsurgency force, the regime designated the RSF as Sudan’s primary force tasked with patrolling Sudanese borders to interdict migrants’ movement. The Sudanese government made this designation within the framework of its partnership with the EU for the control of migration. As such, the RSF is positioned to receive EU funds for reducing the flows of migrants from Sudan to Europe. The Sudanese government enacted a law in January 2017 that integrated the RSF into the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF, national army). The 2017 law (conflictingly) made the RSF autonomous, integrated into the army, and under the command of President Omar al-Bashir (see below).

The EU and the EU member states that are most engaged with Sudan in the actual programmatic partnership on migration flows should scrutinize the record and conduct of the RSF as the partnership unfolds. By “building the capacity” of Sudan’s newly minted border force with funding and training, the EU would not only be strengthening the hand of the RSF but also could find itself underwriting a complex system of a “militia state” that Sudan has evolved into since the current regime came to power in 1989. In so doing, the EU contradicts and undermines the overriding objectives of its own founding treaty. EU members cannot advance peace,security, and human rights and they cannot stem irregular migration from Sudan and the Horn of Africa by directly funding a government that deploys a militia group that stokes violent conflict, commits atrocities, and creates massive displacement of populations within Sudan.

The remainder of this paper synthesizes public information about the RSF’s activities and argues how EU support for this group could ultimately worsen irregular migration to Europe, escalate violent conflict within Sudan and the Horn of Africa, and embolden a regime and militia force that acts with impunity and now faces even fewer checks on its criminal behavior. This paper aims to highlight the latest developments from Sudan and examine the record of earlier engagements of the RSF, lest one or all of Sudan’s EU partners claim, at a later date, that they were unaware of the perverse incentives at play.

Lurker4Long:
Next Ugandan rotation ready for DR Congo deployment

Ahead of moving into eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), a Uganda People’ Defence Force (UPDF) contingent was told they would be on the ground to help “a country in turmoil”.


https://www.defenceweb.co.za/joint/diplomacy-a-peace/next-ugandan-rotation-ready-for-dr-congo-deployment/

EACRF-UPDF have crossed the Uganda-DRC border to deploy in Bunagana, Kiwanja & Mabenga within Rutshuru, marking a critical milestone and the final phase towards full deployment of the EACRF. They will oversee M23's sequenced withdrawal, protect civilians & open Bunagana-Goma MSR.

Lurker4Long:
I don't much care for every other country's position.
I do however, care very much that my country upholds its own domestic laws, which stipulate that ICC warrants have to be effected. The Zuma administration shamefully broke SA law when it didn't arrest Al-Bashir, and when a court ruled they had to, they bundled him into an airport all while lying that they couldn't find him!
I do not find edifying, the spectacle of my government breaking SA law for some genocidal thug. So best they tell Vlad the Thug to make up some excuse and stay home, lest they be forced into a choice between geopolitics and the law.

A Kenyan court has issued an arrest warrant for Sudan's President Omar al-Bashir over alleged war crimes in Darfur.

The ruling came after Kenya allowed Mr Bashir to visit in August in defiance of an International Criminal Court (ICC) warrant for his arrest.
Kenya failed to arrest Bashir when he visited the country last year.

AFP - A Kenyan high court issued an arrest warrant Monday for Sudan's President Omar al-Bashir, wanted by the International Criminal Court on genocide charges.
Though Kenya has ratified the founding the ICC's founding Rome statute, it failed to arrest the Sudanese leader when he visited the country in August 2010.
Monday's high court ruling means that his arrest "should be effected by the Attorney General and the Minister for Internal Security should he ever set foot in Kenya," Judge Nicolas Ombija said.
Bashir is the subject of two arrest warrants issued by the ICC for atrocities committed in Darfur in western Sudan. The first was issued in March 2009 on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity. The second was issued in July 2010 on charges of genocide.
The Sudanese President in August 2010 attended a ceremony in Nairobi to mark the adopting of Kenya's new constitution.

As a signatory of the ICC's founding treaty, Kenya was theoretically obliged to arrest Bashir when he entered the country.

https://www.france24.com/en/20111128-kenyan-court-issues-arrest-warrant-sudan-president-bashir-icc-war-crimes-genocide

Faithful007:
The United States does not recognize the ICC.

If he chooses to come, which he won't, he may not be allowed into US airspace. However I doubt if the US government will be willing to take such a step because it may trigger the end of a single UNGA venue.

Lurker4Long:
You guys haven't yet mentioned the ICC warrant and the implications for the BRICS Summit here in August.
For what it's worth, I don't think the Ramaphosa admin would be as stupid as Zuma's and repeat the al-Bashir situation.
So I think Putin will be publicly invited, but privately persuaded to stay home. That way, everybody saves face.

75 TRIPS TO 22 COUNTRIES IN 7 YEARS: AN INDICTED WAR CRIMINAL’S TRAVELS
President Omar al-Bashir of Sudan has clocked in thousands of miles flying across the world since 2009, despite being a wanted war criminal.

Over seven years ago the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued a warrant for al-Bashir’s arrest for his role in the Darfur genocide, accusing him of overseeing murder, extermination, forcible transfer, rape, and torture, as well as directing pillaging and other attacks against civilians. The warrant has not stopped the dictator—one of the longest serving in the world—from traveling 75 times to 22 countries since then, seemingly without fear of prosecution.
Few countries, including the seven he visited that are signatories to the ICC, harbor the political will to arrest him, despite the ICC urging all states to cooperate fully with the warrant for his arrest. On Saturday, Bashir travelled to Indonesia to head the opening session for an extraordinary Islamic summit, a country the Sudanese president was unable to visit last year due to pressure from several protesting countries. In February Bashir attended the African Investment Forum (AIF) in Egypt, where Sudan, Egypt, and Ethiopia agreed to strengthen ties. It is his sixth trip to the country, a signatory of the ICC that refuses to execute the warrant, since 2009.
https://nubareports.org/bashir-travels/

Conclusion
Clearly, the conventional and asymmetrical approaches to warfare are different. The ‘paradoxical trinity’ is different for the two setups save for the pillar of people or Ummah. The two groups have different worldviews as to why they should engage in conflict where one party views the objective is to protect national interests while the other party views the aim is to fulfil heavenly and divine purpose. The conventional Army is superior and wellresourced by the Nation State, a factor which makes it underestimate the potency of the meek religious opponent. The failure to thoroughly analyse the enemy, the over confidence and assumption that occupying territory is the measure of success, leads to the ultimate failure. The asymmetrical opponent puts effort to occupy the terrain in the hearts of the people by religious appeal or by being seen to represent the oppressed.

Recommendations
Both the conventional and asymmetrical warfare have in common the ‘paradoxical trinity’ pillar of People. It is recommended that emphasis be placed on winning hearts and minds of people in order to deny the religious extremist groups a foothold in the people. In Afghanistan, ignoring the people ‘tribes’ was the beginning of the failure of the mighty Armies who ventured in that country. The local systems mobilized along tribal and religious lines, hence they were able to endure and resist the occupation forces. It is recommended that in planning to counter the asymmetrical warfare, the emphasis should be to win “war of ideas” other than the “battle of ideas.” The war of ideas involves promoting strategic interests to win hearts and minds of the population masses through calculated psychological operations. The battle of ideas is won through one-time success through propaganda, military operation into the militants’ hideout, seizure and occupation of territory among other conventional acts.

Soviet-Afghan War, 1979-1989
The Soviet Union considered Afghanistan to be of strategic importance to its national security. In 1978, the unpopular communist government in Afghanistan signed a 20 year friendship and cooperation treaty with the Soviet Union23. The Communist party, People’s Democratic Party of Afghanistan, which had previously staged a coup in Kabul in April,1978 received massive military and logistical support from the Soviet leadership. The party pushed for radical reforms with no consideration to the existing system where traditional tribal and religious leaders had a role in the governance of Afghanistan. This prompted resistance from an asymmetrical religious group, the Mujahedeen or “holy warriors”. The anti-Russian Mujahedeen were resilient in the face of the Russian scorchedearth policy, destruction of villages and food supplies in the villages. Finally, Afghanistan turned into a “bleeding wound” for the Soviet mighty Army. Ultimately resulting into the defeat of the Soviets. The defeat of the Soviets in Afghanistan, partly contributed to the collapse of the Soviet Union as the perception of the Red Army invincibility was shattered.
The defeat of the Soviet Union in Afghanistan was supported directly by the US who wanted to teach the Russians a lesson. It was reported that the US provided direct and indirect support towards Islamic radicalization through USAID who funded publication of textbooks promoting Islamic militancy. This was in addition to the supply of shoulder fired (stinger) anti-aircraft missiles which were used in firing at Russian low flying aircrafts. The Mujahedeen resistance triumphed.

US-Afghan War 2001-2021
Similar to other failed invasions in Afghanistan by other foreign powers, the U.S. equally
failed in its invasion of Afghanistan in the period 2001-2021. The U.S. invasion was provoked
by the 9/11 Al Qaeda attack on the World Trade Centre. The war which dragged for 20 years,
cost $2.313 trillion, 2,400 lives of the U.S. service members were lost with 46,000 civilians
killed27. Several reasons had been advanced as to why the U.S. failed in Afghanistan. Some
of the reasons included, lack of a proper understanding of Afghanistan’s social, cultural and
political background from an historical perspective.
Additionally, the U.S. troops did not have a clear definition of who the enemy was. Further,
the U.S. policy did not have clearly stated objectives neither was military role well-defined.
The U.S. withdrawal marked the end of the invasion and the Taliban took over the control of
the government. This marked another defeat from another strong conventional actor by an
asymmetrical opponent.

Addressing the teachers before taking off, Colonel Joel Tanui assured the teachers of their safety in their respective schools and the support of OAB not only in Education but in other sectors as well. “We are beyond grateful to you all for your sacrifice to serve in this area, all the preparations have been made to ensure a safe environment for everyone and we anticipate a successful and positive term at school,” said Colonel Tanui.

On her part, the TSC Lamu County Director Riziki expressed appreciation to KDF for availing transportation and the multi-agency troops that provide security in their area of service, additionally, she said processes are underway to see that more teachers are posted in Lamu County in the ongoing teacher recruitment.

NTSA:
border patrol police unit (Bpu)Kenya

GreenandGold:
I guess it all depends on where you are in the world... down here, they like coming to people, some of them even wear sui.... or wait, that's Putin