₦airaland Forum

phoinix:
I know bro, the charges should be about 2% .

This kind of market is good for quick get in and out. The 2% will cover some weekend expenses, hopefully.

Hmmm....Day trading on NSE? Day trading with FBNH? Please tell us how it pans out after several trades. Maybe I will be tempted.

RabbiDoracle:
There is bewilderment as the global exchanges rages with bull, NSE is trading sideways. Not falling and not going up.

All that needs to be done is just look (like Lookman) and see the direction the market takes.

It has thrown confusion to chart lookers.

If market remains irrational like this, then smart investors will activate the dividend waiting mode and observe when the market finishes playing its games.

There is no bewilderment. The Fed money you were waiting for is not coming. The FPIs that are already inside are looking for ways out. The local players with financial muscle are doing siddon look. If the index can get back to January 2020 level before year end it should be considered a win.

One way of making money from stock investment i.e. dividend is still viable. Better in those that pay twice if bought at the right price.

DonDraper:
Kwese Sports, BON Reach Agreement To Broadcast World Cup Live
Channels Television
Updated May 21, 2018




https://www.channelstv.com/2018/05/21/kwese-sports-bon-reach-agreement-to-broadcast-world-cup-live/

You trying to reach me?

Topson88:
Cc rabbidoracle

Is there a reason why access bank no follow law of gravity??
The bank dey do agidi and i need to pick some units at lower price .

Its responding slow slow. Not gonna happen overnight.

The first part of US government putting money in the hands of consumers will stop by end of July if not renewed. Ditto for loan repayment suspension by aug/sept. So far the monies and savings have ended up in robinhood where a slaughtering is taking place.

The big guys sentiments are unchanged from last year...at least for now.

RabbiDoracle:
Economic recoveries are moving at a slow pace. There are still strong headwinds that could further derail the recoveries especially in the area of consumer spending. If after making rates so low and pumping excess liquidity and people don't spend, the economies will falter and collapse globally.

Meanwhile the stock market continues to rise as a result of cheap borrowing, free funds and the only avenue people made money during the lockdown.

Lets just be watching and taking notes as things evolve. Many people have taken one position or the other based on their assumptions. I believe on of the scenarios will play out one way or the other, soon.

Interesting Read.

ositadima1:
Not necessarily, you can read the following excerpt if you got the time.

"Typically larger buyers tend to slowly and discretely accumulate, given the opportunity. They have deep pockets and are the ones who tend to put a bid under a stock. Naturally they want to buy and accumulate at the best possible overall price and thus, as they build out a large line of the stock, they do so patiently so as to not goose the stock higher, which would be detrimental to their desires. They prefer to see the stock work back and forth—not run higher. If it did the latter, they would not be able to purchase the stock at reasonable price points.

The enthusiasm to buy is somewhat subdued and that is because the stock is probably under accumulation—not mark-up. The mark-up phase comes only after accumulation is mostly done, and that is when you see the large and fast gains. Even in the mark-up scenario there is ebb and flow, but it comes less frequently and retraces are minor compared to directional surges.

Once a large buyer or a group of buyers builds out a large line of stock, it is in their best interest to hold it and to see to it that good stories circulate; bullish stories about how this or that may happen. The old adage on Wall Street is that for every stock, there is a story, and that's quite true because Wall Street sells stories; they sell hope, hype, and the promise of future potential. As the stories circulate, the large buyers attempt to goose the stock higher, creating additional interest in the stock in an attempt to lure additional buyers. If they succeed, prices will move even higher, and possibly much higher. This period is the mark-up period in which price gains momentum and owning this or that stock is all the rage. Think greed and think back to stocks such as America Online and Enron. These stocks had spectacular rises on suspect fundamentals. They also eventually crashed right back down from where they came. Huge money was there forthe taking as long as you could read the chart properly and exit prior to a spectacular fall.

As prices get marked up, large holders of the stock begin to sell into the strength. In a similar way that accumulation happens, distribution begins to occur. This is the process of slowly selling the line of cheaply accumulated stock at much better prices, and to do so discretely and slowly so as to not arouse suspicion. This process was prevalent 90 years ago and there is no reason to believe that it no longer applies. The price action supports the idea that this game of pushing the stock higher then discretely selling into the rise remains with us today. It is called distribution. During this period, the stock ebbs and flows exceedingly although the trend begins to change. Most of the time it is subtle and the distribution period remains for a reasonably long period of time. For most stocks, it usually coincides with a top in the market. Eventually a mark-down period ensues that breeds fear and, though the market continues to ebb and flow, retraces become less pronounced as the bearish trend intensifies"

This will be a very dangerous game in present day markets. You can try this with stocks like Neimeth and a few others (thinly traded and very little information out there) but will be left holding the short end of the stick when you try it with toast of investors in NSE. There is more free flow of information on market and associated activities. What you described above is how people like Cornelius Vanderbilt, Andrew Carnegie and other Robber Barons built their wealth.

ositadima1:
Looking at ur chart I see the diviation clearly, I also noticed something else, some months before the crash, precisely from October 2019, NSE Index was growing quite rapidly, faster than any other previous interval on the chart. Maybe, if covid-19 never happened it might have continued. My thoughts.

You are absolutely correct. Oracle predicted this surge before it happened and thought it would be sustained. He came back in December/January to warn that the market would reverse earlier than he thought, which again it did. This was all pre-Covid-19 debacle. I still don't understand that bump in the road. Let's continue to observe and share ideas on how we think the market will evolve. I believe with all contributors putting forward their thesis on the market, the discerning should be able to get a heads up in advance of any surprises.

Additionally, "locals" with capacity to move the market seem to be very satisfied with risk adjusted returns they are getting from government and corporate bonds as these are routinely oversubscribed in multiples. FPIs cant get out so they are happy to play along till the door is open. In a situation they have found themselves, they are opting to be exposed to only currency risk with guaranteed income rather than take a combo of currency, price and market risk.

When they do decide to take on price/market risk, everybody will know. That should be the time for retail investors to tag along and deploy additional cash. For now it will be long and nervy waiting game for all.

Since early 2018, NSE has largely diverged from NYSE and S&P 500 (and other major markets i believe). In March 2020 almost all exchanges in the world took same pattern because of twin factors of COVID 19 and global oil prices. However, it appears that the divergence between NSE and at least NYSE/S&P 500 has resumed. Something concrete and unique needs to move NSE away from being flat or declining and it wont be the stimulus package announced in USA or Europe. There are still many issues holding the index down. I believe at best it would recover to January 2020 level and trade flat till there is concrete regulatory action to attract that stimulus money.....or some other action that nobody can predict for now.

For now I hope for the best but prepare for any eventuality. For those traders (not long term folks) who bought the dip in March 2020, I just think its wise to take some profits now. If eventually prices shoot up, folks will be in quick order to use cash and catch it as it goes up. It it doesn't, you wont loose much. You can also watch out for that one or two maverick stocks that will make folks laugh to the bank between now and December.

***Not an advisory. Just my random thoughts.

stcool:
I still have my fidelity...but investing in another goldmine. Make I load finish I go make announcement.

Lol....I pray you are on the right side of the trade.

yMcy56:
Investors are trying to buy support generally.....not willing to bid higher.
More reason you can see huge bids at support across board.
If it goes down a bit, they shift the bids backwards again....... uncertainty situation kind of.

I think many people are currently/correctly guessing the short term direction of the market. Self fulfilling prophecy on price direction will soon kick in if it has not already done so. For the favourite equities on this thread, if you have not bought i think its just wise to hold on and watch. Better bargains are loading...

megawealth01:
I have just joined BARGAIN HUNTERS @.25 in case there is LOOT just like NEIMETH delivered

Lol...@Neimeth. Just keep in mind that 10-10 percent can move in either direction in a very random manner.

BullBearMkt:
Weekly Selling Pressures Could Send GTB To Retest Below 50% Fib

Recent selling pressures observed on Guaranty Trust Bank stock price could possibly mean the stock is about to pullback to a support level . Identified however is the support at about 22 (Naira). If price is rejected at this level, then we could have a reversal to the upside & price could also go to re-test support at 19.21

Youtube Analysis

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j4mb7FEDy6o

PLAN YOUR TRADES AND TRADE YOUR PLANS

Subscribed!

RabbiDoracle:
There is no summer holiday like it used to be.

People have been at home since and they need to work to get money. Moreso airports are yet to fully allow tourists.

No one will travel to any country where on arrival, you will be in quarantine for 14 days.

So the global market will still experience the bullishness that comes with Fed printing. Nothing more, nothing less

I am not so sure NSE and many emerging markets will be impacted directly from this money printing. While these markets have offered returns over and above what is obtainable from Europe and North America, the uncertainties around exchange rate, CBNs next move and inability to get the monies out of the country will be a major dampener. The guys are not walking their talk of easy exit for foreign investors. The monies trapped here for now cant give the market the kind of push it needs.

By December 2020, If the index gets back to 29k+ where it was in January 2020 i will consider it a decent performance. Isolated stocks may however shine during the remainder of the year. At least M&A in the works should create opportunity for people.

***modified

With Insurance Companies, its usually the more you look the less you see.

AIICO will give shareholders bonus of 1 for 5 (no new value created, pie size remains the same but now divided into 6 parts instead of 5), and then take rights money from them. Its a zero sum game and the major owners have no intention of being the losers..

I see that they are determined to sell those rights at any price between N1.00 to N1.20. Just be sure reversion to mean price will apply after the rights and we will be back to five-five kobo dividend.

Make i just dey observe.

***Modified

Just seen corporate release from AIICO on NSE website that the rights issue is been priced at 80K/share. @OBAGADAFFI that answers your question below.

You can be sure the price is going right back to 80k range in next few days.

X21:
caverton!

what happened that that drove price south

Lol....when price should be rising as the last trading day (15/06) before qualification approaches. Perhaps market is disappointed with the 20k dividend proposed.

General state of the market. Some have said expect "bull", some have said expect "bear". I will share my own opinion during this public holiday weekend.

locodemy:
Technically,wapic to see 50% rise.

Is unity bank among the prophets?

I am beginning to like technical build up of some stocks this morning.

Jp a sudden u- turn.uhmm

Interesting times building up gradually.

A new 10% quick come o

Sure? looks like it will move in the opposite direction.

OBAGADAFFI:
http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/30515_AIICO_INSURANCE_PLC._CORPORATE_ACTIONS_JUNE_2020.pdf

http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/30516_AIICO_INSURANCE_PLC._CORPORATE_ACTIONS_JUNE_2020.pdf

Well.....here we go! We now confirm what we always suspected. Same playbook all the time.

Enjoy folks!!!

Its strange though. The company had a board meeting on May 12 and told the investing public only part of resolution reached within 24 hours as required by NSE/SEC. After some shenanigans with the price like insider purchases etc, they now come out with the other half of the information. NSE and SEC are sleeping on duty.

stcool:
Jegede has survived where most CEOs failed...if he held in this far then sth is coming.

Him deciding to hold in to those dredgers is for a reason. I keep having a feeling that money is entering Japaul

To hope is good....sometimes.

emmanuelewumi:
Always read and digest the auditor's report. There is a red flag if there are doubts about the going concern ability of a business.

Avoid businesses that are not generating enough revenue that can take care of their running costs.


UPDC paid a dividend of N1.75k about 5 to 6 years ago, now the stock price is now less than the dividend declared in the past

Hope is a double edged emotion.

emmanuelewumi:
The bank won't operate it, they may tell Japaul or any other person to run the business for them.

Can you now see why Japaul will need to raise funds in order to pay the remaining debt and stay in business. Another reason why you can't earn any dividend.

Japaul is just s step a way from being under receivership

...or liquidation.

RabbiDoracle:
See sharp pebble wey you throw on Mcy

Una dey look for trouble o.

Meanwhile i go register to learn literature from Deruggedprof

Princkez:
I just bought some FBNH @5.45 with some little change I have in my account...hope this price is ok

Time will tell.

emmanuelewumi:
Name of the company or sector where it operates

Neimeth or Japaul of course.

emmanuelewumi:
Who is the representative of the owner of Peace Mass Transit on the board of May and Baker?

The owner himself. Mr. Samuel Onyishi.

Mcy56:
Yes. I read your comments.
...but me I came across an info sometimes ago about one of the big pharma acquiring the coy, only not sure of how true this is.
I mentioned this so as to drive my point home that, we can do better to know what's behind a stock's sudden behaviour rather than just dwelling on fundamentals alone.

@Bolded is most probably not correct. All the Pharmaceutical companies have surplus unused capacities so acquisition by a local player wont make sense. As a matter of fact i can go into pharmaceuticals production by contracting the surplus capacity of either Fidson, MB or Neimeth to do contract manufactuting for me. All the local pharma companies make generic drugs and there is no valuable brand or patent in Neimeth they will want either. A new international entrant possibly but Neimeth has old machinery setup and they seriously need to modernize their plant so no attraction there also.

I said it before that they guys are positioning for a mega rights issue. With accumulated loss of over N1 billion and outstanding shares of under 2 bn units they need cash to join the modern pharma era. 4 entities control 49% of shares and i don't see 2 of them subscribing to any or much rights so giving up that control has to be valuable. This will also present opportunities for other people to buy big and join the board just like the owner of Peace Mass Transit did with May and Baker. If you read the line by line well, everything in this paragraph is already in their 2019 annual report.

ositadima1:
You didn't explain this very well, I have a background in math and probability theory, and this makes no sense. Why factorial ( n! ) ? Pls, what is d name of this strategy?

You can exit or enter a predetermined position size in proportions of the size you chose. In his own case he is saying he has exited 40% of his Neimeth portfolio. Your own sizes could be anything such as

40%-40%-20%
30%-30%-40%
25%-25%-25%-25%

Choice is all yours.

http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/30377_PRESTIGE_ASSURANCE_PLC_CORPORATE_ACTIONS_JUNE_2020.pdf

I just shake my head sometimes:

41 for 100 bonus in 2018
share reconstruction in 2019
Rights issue in 2019/2020
2 for 11 bonus in 2020

Okay o.

onegentleguy:
U my dear, are a smart fellow !!

I am sure you know that other company. Its still below the radar for now.