₦airaland Forum

Drakky47:
Good morning everyone please what's the best time to invest in stock and I would really like to know the stock market to invest in thanks

Interesting....

Ladasha:
Guys, please I am a newbie in need of advice. I will be joining the ride today but I don't know which stock to pick. I had Access in mind, but I don't think now is the best entry time. Your suggestions are welcomed please.

Investment aim: Capital appreciation

Duration: short to medium term

Okay....i need more newbie entrants like this to the market. The time cometh shortly.....

EgunMogaji2:
6) I’ll never advise anyone to go into a business without being on the ground.

Good luck.

I endorse this!

seyisanya:
Can this be done on Morgan as well?

Yes. But only for sell orders. Its not available for buy orders the last time i used that trading platform.

RabbiDoracle:


And if I talk where e fit reach now, people will disrespect me.

I have kept my mouth shut.

Na only one man/woman talk so. No use am judge others.

Toluway:
Thanks, i appreciate. My problem with Meritrade is, they seldom allow my order to sail through, any time i put price limit !

Its just patience you need. I use same platform and some ridiculous limits i put usually sail through from about day 12 onward. Very rarely have i passed that 14 days without getting an order filled. In any case if the 14 days lapse i just repeat the order until it gets filled or until TA indicates that order go hard to fill.

jamace:
Not you but YOK. Or are you YOK also?

Check Page 5106 of this thread for YOK's comment and particularly the attached information "EXPOSED". You will notice that he talked about Vitafoam but edited the table to PZ. I read it yesterday and I'm sure of this. I even checked the TA of Vitafoam on my chart because of his comment.

I no be Yok o abeg. But let's give people benefit of doubt and not be in a hurry to attribute wrongdoing to perceived action. Check his December 19 table on Vitafoam and i believe that is the correct one. I suppose he edited the table for PZ but didn't do it fully.

In anycase i believe he dropped that table here before PZ released their result that is why i said he saw expo. From what i am seeing on that December 19 table on Vitafoam, i am almost certain he saw that Vitafoam expo as well.

Yok come and explain yourself o.

westliver:
Will 10k naira be enough to start stock exchange business?

There may be a few brokers who will agree to open an account for you with that amount. But you need to add to it periodically while learning about stock investing.

jamace:
See Vitafoam o. And somebody claimed he saw EXPO yesterday, telling us that the company was in great loss. He even showed figures but presently he has tactically edited the information. I hope some persons are not on this thread to misinform us for their selfish interest.

I made the comment on EXPO yesterday and my comment specifically mentioned "PZ" which is what was on the table i referred to.

[quote author=fxuser post=85372678][/quote]Thanks!

yok:
DAILY STOCK MARKET GUIDE FOR 30 DEC

Our stock picks for 2020, continues with the addition of GTB. For 1st qtr 2020 the stock is not likely to advance in price as it is in Elliot wave 4 on short and long timeframes! #Next year the men will be separated from the boy’s in the stock market as many equities are in long term wave 4. Do you want to avoid making losses in 2020? You have to start doing something to improve the odds in your favour.

From our MSCI corner, the fund reported purchase of 4.5million units of Transcorp last week, can this save MSCI from the bears, not yet.
See

our expected result for November 2019 period end for PZ, thing likely not yet okay for the company.

Our stage analysis now contain the long term Elliot wave position for all the major equities. With this report knowing where to put our money is easier.

Happy new year in advance to all.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. Also, Institutions can afford to suffer big losses without going burst compared with an individual, you cannot follow them blindly (you need to at least have some knowledge/your own plan). This document remains the personal property of Target technical analysis https://twitter.com/AnalysisTarget

Hmmm....You sure say no "expo" for this your PZ projection?

fxuser:
EOY Price action
We've gone from things could get worse to things cud get better
- in place of Dec rally , we have Dec Support with prices finding buyers at day lows
- monthly charts shows prices are above monthly open and prev month close (positive)
- prices also above prev weekly close (positive)
- no strong vol to downside , good support for late comers
- if price is below your entry , no biggie , calm
- if ur in profit end , no biggie
- will give a deeper technical analysis update
- let me know wat stocks u want to look at

Thanks. Could you speak on the fllw

- Julius Berger
- Guinness
- Conoil
- Seplat
- Okomu

Tnks

bigjay01:
We just de watch you and your ETI & Access Bank!

please remember there are newbies here when making such definite statements!

I no wan laugh abeg…..

2020 gonna be a better year.

Still on Dangote Share reconstruction.....

http://anyflip.com/hajk/gaqv/

fxuser:
Every Trader / investor 4 fears he must face by Mark Douglas

1) Fear of Missing Out
2) Fear of Loss
3) Fear of Being Wrong
4) Fear of Letting a Win Turn into a Loss ''

- TradingInThe Zone
#VeryGoodRead�

Thanks buddy....looks interesting.

The kind of uppercuts and right hooks coming from Oracle and OGG today dey make me fear o. I withold all further comments till next month.

currentprice:
it not FO o

for tips: dividend is sure going forward meaning no dividend paid last year

it a popular stock but not penny stock

Hmmm...many companies fit this criteria but my top picks will be either of WAPCO or Union Bank.

Please note content below is for information only and was written by a Investment Banking Salesman.

***View of a Salesman***
If you are an avid reader of my series, you are probably already bored of my views on Nigeria and I would not waste time rehashing that this morning. We kicked off the year with a negative bias for Equities contrary to general market expectations that the market will rally post the elections – we took a differentiated stance which has played out so far. Today the NSE is down 16% and I would argue that if we strip out the MTN performance – the Nigerian market is down north of 20% YtD. Over the last 2 year, the market has cumulatively lost about 40%. Everything is dirt cheap, but you know what they say; it is probably cheap for a reason – Where is the growth ? anyways Dele, stay focused on your gospel.

We still do not think that there are strong fundamentals to drive a natural correction in the Equity market but I got a feeling that there is half a chance that we might see a strong correction in the market going into 2020.
Why and how? 2 CBN Circulars will make this happen
• The CBN recently released a circular restricting local corporates and retail investors from participating in OMO’s . These included local PFAs and Asset Management companies.
• The CBN Circular taking banks LDR to 60% and further to 65% by December 2019.

The OMO market is estimated at NGN14 trillion – we estimate that foreign investors account for NGN6 trillion naira of that; Banks account for NGN4.5trillion and the balance of NGN3.5 trillion belong to everyone (PFAs, asset Management, retail investors, local corporates). The Nigerian Treasury Bill market in its entirety is about NGN2.7 trillion – so it is fair to say that the treasury bill market cannot absorb NGN3.5trillion of maturities in the OMO market that would be looking for a new home.

What is the obvious outcome? Yield on these instruments (treasury bills) will collapse; price rallies. We have already seen this play out in the book of the PFAs. What I want to achieve with this note is to try to articulate how players in the market will be affected by this policy

Foreign Fixed income investor
What do investors cherish the most in markets – Liquidity. This circular effectively takes out that liquidity. If we assume that Foreigner investors decide to sell out of the entire 6 trillion naira today, Nigerian banks would be unable to absorb those OMOs. In which case, the Central bank would become buyer of last resort. The CBN would have to take them out at a compelling level given that there is no real market level. The apex regulator would still need to provide them dollar liquidity to exit the country. We note however, banks will still be charged with the responsibility to effectively make market for OMO bills to address potential liquidity concerns. Since the CBN circular, the FX market has experienced more outflows than inflows although still not at the levels we saw in August when oil prices dipped. The yield moderation in the primary market treasury bills could also compel some of the foreign fixed income investors to switch out of the PMA bills into the relatively higher yielding OMO bills; this is a trade we are seeing - Well, I guess the other best thing investors cherish in the markets is their returns.

Local Institutional money like Pension fund administrators – it is a hunt for yields
Now they need to look for other investment outlets away from the OMOs. Banks are looking to meet the Dec deadline on the 65% LDR so expect your banker not to pick the call when you are trying to place those billions in NGN – they simply don’t want it and frankly do not want the head ache except of course you are giving the them the money for free at 2%. The bonds market stock is estimated to be slightly over 10 trillion naira. Notably, we have seen some compression in the bond yields as well particularly as supply has been limited. The DMO is still looking to raise somewhere close to 400 billion naira before the end of the year- inclusive of the usual 100 billion naira Sukuk bond in December; this is a small amount to the wall of 3.5 trillion that would mature over the next 12 months. We expect demand will remain strong from this class of investors amid liquidity from increased OMO maturities into the rest of the year.
Looking forward- the government is again tinkering with the idea of a 10 trillion naira infrastructure bond in 2020 which again provides another investment outlet for the local money asset manager.

Asset Manager with money market funds
AUM of CISs is currently around N870b, with MM Funds accounting for over 75% of this. The CBN policy on OMO therefore means that the impact would be felt by a very large portion of the industry given the regulatory restrictions embedded in the SEC registered MM Funds. The longest tenor for permissible instruments in a MM Fund is 364 days, while the Weighted Average Maturity for the collection of securities in a MM Fund is 90-days. As such more investments must be skewed towards the short end of the 1-yr fixed income yield curve. Consequently, the yields on MM Funds would significantly adjust to market realities within a 60 – 90-days period. In addition, CISs are only allowed to place with BBB Banks and this category of banks are already offering deposit rates of around 7 – 10%p.a. In addition, Banks are still having issues with providing realistic runs for T-Bills that domestic investors can buy. This has effectively reduced the universe of investable assets. Finally, if this situation continues, the primary PMA auctions might be the only viable source to reinvest OMO maturities as successful buyers of instruments at the PMAs (especially PFAs) would not likely sell as the PMAs will not be able to accommodate their investment fire power. Overall, there could be a cash drag on returns on MM Funds if existing or new investment outlets are not opened up quickly enough

HNI/Retail investor
HNI are always looking for where to pack money – they value safety. Many a times, you would see these monies in real estate, fixed deposit with banks, Treasury bills , mutual funds or in dollars. As yields in the T-bills market collapse, it becomes increasing unattractive to leave the monies in that investment class as it is negative rate of return given the yields you are generating is lower than the average inflation rate. In the interest of capital preservation, we expect some HNI investor would prefer to pack their monies in dollars and potentially buy dollar mutual funds. If the demand there goes up as well, yields would also collapse.

Banks
From some of the conference calls we listened to during the 3Q results reporting cycle, we heard some banks revise the deposit growth forecasts downwards by as much as 10% - 20% and revised upward the loan growth assumption. This speaks directly to the loan to deposit target of 65% with a December deadline. Talking to a few local institutional investors, there are getting shocking rates from Nigerian Banks. Placement rates with banks is as low as 2%, averaging out at about 8% and at the top end of the curve 10%.

For investment bankers, this would be a great opportunity to approach corporates to issue commercial papers and corporate bonds but the banks would totally hate that as it affects loan growth – I suspect they would be willing to get into a pricing war to match levels where such instruments would be issued to ensure they keep quality lenders on the book and also ensure the loan book does not collapse to maintain their regulatory LDR limit of 65% by December.

For local corporates, this circular affects your liquidity management strategy. If a corporate is sitting on a lot of cash, they might be compelled to pay down some of their loans faster to bring down the cost of borrowing if they cannot get attractive yields for such monies.

I stand to be corrected – but I am yet to see any bankable infrastructure project in Nigeria sponsored by any government that pays for itself so the PFAs would be extremely cautious when it comes to investing in this asset class. The Lekki Epe expressway concession would have been the perfect prototype to look at when it comes infrastructure financing but this concession was prematurely terminated by the Lagos State government in its 2 year for what was a 30 year build operate and transfer arrangement. This experiment failed and then NPLs that arose as a result of this concession still remains fresh in the mind of the financiers.

When all is said and done, Money market instruments with declining yields are unattractive, Bond yields following suit, Eurobond yields like to decline, placement with banks at ridiculous rates, hardly any credible infrastructure based instrument in the market, in some cases, we have seen investors looking for FGN Savings bond for retail investor. After all these outlets are explored, you are left with EQUITIES **drum roll**

Yes, I am sure a lot of my clients would be thinking – Dele is trying to shove equity down our throats. Actually not – I just think in a few months, Monies would reluctantly come back into equity. It will some sort of forced correction as a result of the dislodgement in the market structure.

And No, this would not be an easy switch – if anything I expect the PFAs to fight going back to equities. Notably, PFA exposure still remains below 5% - we believe the industry can add conservatively 300bps to about 7% and if we are being overly bullish 10% exposure to Equity as an industry but I seriously doubt. That said, I would take the incremental exposure from 4% today to 7%. This could be the real kicker to the market going into 1Q2019. For any smart investor investing in naira at least – now is the time deploy money into equities strategically in stocks I consider my top picks

What are my top 5 picks today if you are a NGN investor?
• Financials – Zenith and GTBank with 113% and 120% upside to our target price of NGN37 and NGN57.40 respectively with One year forward dividend yield of 17.1% and 13.4%
• I would be buyers of UBA only as a dividend play – today it offers 16.6% one year forward dividend yield
• Seplat – on the back of the eland announcement (I like Eland a lot)
• Nestle Nigeria – quality is quality (end of story)

robobo:
Hello Oga TLAX / Aremso

i would appreciate if ypu oblige me with the full treport

Oga Aremso i wld appr8 if u can also help out

i tried gettiong it from the EFG Hermes website cut ld not apprenmtly because im not a client/ customer

That was all of it. It was a mail from one of StanbicIBTC staff.

currentprice:
UBA roe, bv, peg , solvency ratio among others even better than that of ACcess

in my own opinion UBA is still hav d better numbers base on Q3

UBA FP 22.5
Access fp 24.9

let wait for their final Audit report

fingers crossed

Finally....to financial information emanating from companies I will apply my "Believability Index" developed for each company

Access Bank "BI" - 63.7%
UBA "BI" - 72.4%

robobo:
Hello Chief

God bless you plentiful for this

it was full of insight and hard question,
e.g August surge in foreign flow largely MTN driven (though it still doesnt explain that of September or could that be as per Airtel)
why are PFA not inclined to the equity market despite near certainty of outperformance in the long term
reconfirmation of the fact that NSE (rise & fall) is deeply tied / correlated to foreign inflow (NFA) e.t.c

whats d source please

Possible answer to bolded below

Conclusion: the sentiments are consistent across board

Response 1
You're shaking a broken table
Equity isn't a generic name in Nigeria. Nah not even a noun. As a name describes attributes and character of the underlying. PFAs have bought something hard to describe. The last 10 years has produced significant negative returns save for year 2013 and 2017. 8 solid years of losing money not in single digits but mid and upper teens.

If the money was left in cash it would have been better. If we add inflation considerations, your guess isn’t going to get there. You also missed the blatant destruction of value by unexplained, unexpected shut downs and nationalization of how many banks? Oceanic bank, Intercontinental, Bank PHB. Notably there is that special oil and gas company that is always raising money, Skye Bank - What did PFAs get? Zero. These were banks that had big 4 audits and CBN affirmative reports 3 months before an overnight take over. Check in and see what the industry lost
PFAs are fiduciaries and will not ignore the concerns of the plan owners who already live with the hope that these monies will amount to something. It's not risk-aversion but common sense. How do you stay invested in an asset class that drops to zero overnight . When PFAs complained about small trades (market manipulation) affecting portfolio valuations what happened? 2 nondescript brokers will trade 10,000 units of a stock and make a single PFA lose 2bn in one day. Is that a market?
There were 120 banks and over 300 insurance companies in this country at some point , where are we today. Has the market grown or we should just continue to plow in? Trust is a precious commodity. Once broken, in any relationship, It will take a long time to rebuild. That's happened in this market and unfortunately not being looked at.

Response 2
Greetings and good to read your write up as always.I asked the question after reading through; what exactly is the answer you are expecting to your question?
Where should the loyalty of PFAs lie? To the market or their RSA holders? I would say to RSA holders/members of course.
Do you Invest Longterm to destroy value or to grow value? Are Nigerian Equities positive for LT investors or value eroding? Look back 10, 15 years and you will come to the same conclusion that the majority of Names on the NSE are value destructive for a Long term Investor. Look at the 10 year look back that was published recently showing that only a few names outperformed inflation and devaluation, over the 10 year horizon; one banking stock – Guaranty Trust Bank, FCMG – Nestle Nigeria, two Agriculture Company – Okomu and Presco….
Also, we have found out that the so called equity premium does not exist for most names in Nigeria; certainly not in the last 15 years.
You raised the question on whether Fixed Income is risk free? The professionals know that nothing is risk free; not even US Treasury!!! However, there is the believe that if you are a Naira investor, and Nigeria does not implode or explode, the Federal Government will print money to settle Naira bonds/Treasury bills obligations if it needs to. Euro Bonds holders may not have such consolation.
I am not sure therefore that Fund Managers should put clients’ money at risk, just because they want to be or be seen to be LT players. This behavior will subsist until the Macros, the fiscal and the monetary line up, and rational analysis supports playing Long term. Till then……..
Anyway, I always enjoy your writes up, and I like the emotion behind them.

Response 3
For most PFA’s there is also concern that you could be penalized for performance below industry average. As result, if you are being measured against peers that have little or no equities (and you are heavy on equities) the possibility of having returns below peer average is high…this could come with penalties. I even think things could worsen once the transfer window opens…as managers may be under pressure to deliver short term returns.

From An Equity Salesman

DOLLARTEX:
http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/27878_CADBURY_NIGERIA_PLC._FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_OCTOBER_2019.pdf

Na wa o. Is it possible for a company not to have any interest expense for 9 months despite the existence of short term bank liabilities?

Its a flat result if you adjust for zero interest expense in first nine months of this year.

currentprice:
checking some numbers this morning...

ucap hav one of the good Q3 in my own opinion. ucap is better than Afripud when valued based on earnings but the later is more better with cash valuation. since cash is oxygen of any firm, investors will keep bidding up afripud price

fairprice: ucap 4.7 , Afripud 7.4

Thanks for your humanitarian service

Uchetoba:
While we await the price of UACN to either go up or down, if anyone has any question regarding the unbundling of UPDC and UPDC REIT let them ask as I will be very glad to answer their questions, but not the numbers.

We are going to make a kill from this one.

Lol...funny guy.

Hmmm....N2 interim dividend and investors/traders just "ignored" as if nothing happened.

Wetin hold NSE "holam" well.

RabbiDoracle:
October will end bullish! The candle will end up being GREEN.

Which candle? Index candle?

Nigeria has issued 3 Payment Service Bank (PSB) Licenses without much fanfare.

The PSBs licenses, required to offer mobile money, have gone to Hope PSB (Unified Payment), Money Master PSB (Globalcom) and 9PSB (9 Mobile). As a reminder at least 30 companies applied for a license and notable in their absence thus far are MTN and Airtel. From some of my informal chatter, We understand MTNN and Airtel would be appealing the decision given that both telco have the widest reach, strong infrastructure and largest agent network to ensure Financial inclusion is a success. PSB license allows entities to take deposits, carry out payments, convert FX, handle remittance, run electronic wallets and issues debit/pre-paid cards.

Courtesy: StanbicIBTC

It looks like Union Bank will be in play sooner than anybody expects.

Watch this space

onegentleguy:

...one of my favourite musician.

Cheers.

Lol...One of mine too bro.

currentprice:
@ cadillac have said it all, he is right about Agba

@Loco you are right Agba have no portfolio he hav no portfolio right now is not d same as that of meshipips that have no plan portfolio atall

if u follow Agba or anybody here with interest you will understand how they operate Agba trade stock once or at most twice a year so he is the most patience investors here who do not move about d mkt up and down until he see what he is looking for to enter mkt. as he is yet to enter mkt,, he work very hard on stock researches than those already in d mkt for what to buy, when ready he use all his Capital to buy one stock

i am also wondering how is going to do d Nov. entry this time cos i am of the opinion dt mkt would hav move higher than CP by then..though mkt have waited till xmas to start bullish in the past... he is one that believes history can always repeat itself. which ever way i will learn new thing when the time come.

note: i follow him and oracle in strategy. the bad aspect i copy from him is buying and holding one or two stock. i dont do diversify ^{pa emma}

i enter mkt few weeks ago.. so if u say i have no portfolio in july you are correct

This doesn't sound like CP .