Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Trojan8(m): 9:32pm On Oct 16, 2024 |
ositadima1: Ok, from the same Afrimex website: "“The joint venture, with significant oil and gas assets, including oil mining licenses 60, 61, 62 and 63, has produced 4.4 billion barrels of oil and 12 trillion cubic feet of natural gas to date, with 1.2 billion barrels of oil and 10.7 trillion cubic feet of natural gas remaining,” the bank said."
That 1.2 billion barrels is more than enough to pay off the cumulative loan of $950 million. In fact, even a small fraction is sufficient if we consider a conservative price of $60 per barrel, which would value the reserves at over $66 billion. PA Ema is looking for net asset value - is this real or just another hype by Afrimex? I don't understand you. You brought revenue projections using 100k/bbl which was what I was refuting. How does it rate to 2p reserves? This guy. Meanwhile, there are reserves for a reason. Not sure where I mentioned anything about Oando but being able to repay their loans if it involves selling off assets. Plus before the acquisition Oando already had over 505.0 barrels of oil in reserves. If I take your "analysis" serious, one would be tempted to say that they should have sold of their reserves in order to facilitate the acquisition but real life doesn't work like that. Again, I am not sure how countering your revenue projections has any bearings on the Company's valuation in itself or their ability to repay their debts. You would be fine. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Trojan8(m): 9:13pm On Oct 16, 2024 |
Streetinvestor2: ok thanks. That means 100,000 barrels is completely not possible from this two deal unless miracles happens with the wells. Then at 50,000 if achieved can they make good money to pay off all this debt in reasonable yrs Yeah, those there are some oil fields that came with the acquisition but can't really project how much crude oil would be coming from those especially for some that are still at exploration stage. As regards, repaying debt I believe it lies in how they are able to improve on margins. In the last 5 years, it was only in 2019 that Oando was able to generate gross profit margin of above double figures (12.6% to be exact) . What this means is that cost of goods sold takes at least 90% of revenue in each financial year, you haven't factored in other costs. Now when you move downwards to net profit margin, they had negative margins in three of the last five years and the highest positive margin was around 4.1% in FY'21 while the highest negative was ironically in FY'19 at -35.6%. If you compare this with Seplat for example, they've always maintained GP margin of around 40% with net profit margin around 11-20%. So I believe if they are able to be cost effective in the short term, then they should be able to clear up those debts in the mid term. |
Health › Re: Lewis Stevenson Plunges 630ft To His Death From Bridge While Taking Selfie by Trojan8(m): 8:26pm On Oct 16, 2024 |
ObalendeCMS: Should take about 65 seconds before the wèrè will touch down.
I guess he smiled or probably laughed hysterically all through.
If to say he survived, dem suppose go throw am again from the top of the bridge! Who survives a fall from over 60 storeys? |
Health › Re: Lewis Stevenson Plunges 630ft To His Death From Bridge While Taking Selfie by Trojan8(m): 8:26pm On Oct 16, 2024 |
He fell from a building of 60+ storeys. Sorry  |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Trojan8(m): 8:23pm On Oct 16, 2024*. Modified: 9:35pm On Oct 16, 2024 |
Streetinvestor2: Oga are you into this field. I want to understand why the minister is hoping for oando to do 100,000 in the future by revamping its production. Abi na another wale marketing. This was whr my hope was hanging for wale to clear all this debt if they push to 100,000 by next yr Nope, I just do analysis of the sector. The minister would always say things that are optimistic which isn't always true. Should I bring various quotes of where he gave timelines that weren't true about Dangote refinery? "Oando expects the acquisition to significantly enhance its production capacity from the current 20,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (kboe/day) to 60,000 kboe/day, effectively boosting Nigeria’s oil output and reinforcing the country’s position in the global energy market. It also expects the transaction to drive local economic growth by creating jobs, improving infrastructure and fostering technological advancements in the oil and gas sector." This is from Afrexim bank that basically financed the deal with a facility worth $650.0m. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Trojan8(m): 7:49pm On Oct 16, 2024 |
mikeapollo: It is more like between Oando and SEPLAT. Currently, SEPLAT produces about 48,000 boepd while Oando produces about 40000 boepd excluding both Mobil/ENI acquisitions Oando current production is 20000+. Including Eni is when it gets to 40000. Seplat is already over 40000 and acquiring Mobil should see it get to 60000+ |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Trojan8(m): 7:47pm On Oct 16, 2024 |
Sunrisepebble: I did my own valuation and got around 9-10k without consideration of the SPDC deal. This was back on NASD. Cardinal Stone see it as N1,200 (5trn market cap) which I feel is not accurate, the premium is too high compared to Seplat which is producing almost 3 or 4 times more Cardinal Stone were the issuing brokers of course so level of bias should be expected. I always left it was overvalued and market is already seeing that. Biggest value proposition for them is that they currently refine 30%+ of oil produced. In terms of hard numbers (production, revenue, and PAT), they are no where near the other big guys. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Trojan8(m): 7:30pm On Oct 16, 2024 |
KarlTom: I see ARADEL doing ₦2000 easily. Likewise, I believe that SEPLAT will do a share split by/before Q1 2025. OandO will do many things largely dependent on the results...  How na? Aradel at 800 is already priced above Seplat in terms of mcap with less assets and other fundamentals. Going to #2,000 basically means an 8-9tn naira valuation. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Trojan8(m): 7:15pm On Oct 16, 2024 |
|
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Trojan8(m): 7:09pm On Oct 16, 2024 |
Streetinvestor2: I don't know anything about oil production. I hard the minster saying he is expecting oando to do 100,000 by December.Are you saying it is not possible from those wells ever in the future. He said his target is for 2M barrel by yr end for the country. Not feasible |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Trojan8(m): 6:50pm On Oct 16, 2024 |
Omooloriredade: Good attempt but unfortunately GROSSLY inaccurate.
* Peak Oil production was not 100,000bbls/day. Should have been reported as 100,000BOE/day. Also, Peak production can't be used for forecasting. * Based on point above re BOE, you can't multiply this figure by $76 (the price of oil). * Gas production figure is wrong. Don't know where that came from. Oando produced c. 31,912,680 MMBtu of gas in 2023. * Average realised price of gas in 2023 was about $2 per MMBtu. Note - Futures contracts are usually used hedge commodity price risk. * Your annual revenue was therefore grossly overstated which throws off the rest of your calculations.
However, I commend you for this intellectual exercise.
Things to note:
Gas: 1000Scf = 1Mcf 1000Mcf = 1MMcf 1000MMcf = 1Bcf 1000Bcf = 1Tcf
BOE (Barrel of OIL Equivalent) 1BOE = 6000Scf or 6Mcf or 5.8MMBtu (approx 6MMBtu)
Oil 1BOE = 1bbl (basically oil quantity needs no conversion. Unlike gas and NGLs, what you get is what it is)
So when an Upstream company reports production numbers, they usually refer to BOE to capture Oil, Natural Gas and Natural Gas liquids. Also, you would often see Oil companies qualify an oil well or OML by the proportion of Oil it produces e.g OML ABC producing 70% Oil (that is the % of oil in the BOE). This is brilliant! |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Trojan8(m): 6:50pm On Oct 16, 2024 |
ositadima1: So? You expect me to believe ThisDay over FY'23 and FY'22 actually numbers. When I get home and I settle down, I'll drop a link to the breakdown from Oando. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Trojan8(m): 6:40pm On Oct 16, 2024 |
Tpharell: I submit to you, rather authoritatively, that Oando is not doing anything near 100,000. They are averaging in the thirty something thousand range at the moment, targeting 40k in the immediate. I have already said and shown that your Thisday source piece is based on an erroneous foundation. Tell them to meet me in court about that! Actually less than 30k. The 40k target is post Eni's deal which should push peak production around the 52k mark. When you factor in loss time and every other challenges that is peculiar to oil exploration then 40k seems like a fair range. Even Seplat with the largest oil production capacity still average around the 52k mark at the moment. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Trojan8(m): 6:38pm On Oct 16, 2024 |
ositadima1: I take correction very well; that's how I learn. In this case, I clearly stated that my estimates are based on ThisDayLive inputs. I never claimed 100,000 barrels a day was the actual figure. So, I don't see what your correction was. If the figure is wrong, okay, but what I was more interested in were the other costs and whether they are in line. You started giving long explanations about BOE, barrels, and conversions, which are irrelevant to my post. One barrel is about 76 dollars, and the publication referred to barrels per day. Oando average production is around the 25k/bbl. mark. Factor in a very bullish estimate, that 100k is not possible. Even the 20% upside From 4 OMLs won't even push peak average production beyond 52k. Post integration of this acquisition, Oando should average around 40-45k/bbl. |
Investment › Re: My Father's Dividend After 11years Of Investing In Transcorp Shares by Trojan8(m): 10:00am On Oct 16, 2024 |
Your dad invested less than 2 thousand naira and somehow you are expecting millions  |
Fashion › Re: Outrage As Gen Z Mother Installs Frontal Hair On 1-year-old Baby (Photos) by Trojan8(m): 6:35am On Oct 16, 2024 |
lildush: Y? The hair looks good. And that is the truth.. you people are used to ghetto life. Seeing dirty and unkept children everyday. It have become normal to u. She may be 1 year old and don't need this for now. But as the mum can afford to do it for her. It's not bad. It's part of keeping clean. So installing frontals mean she's not dirty and well kept. The way some of you lots reason in reverse ehn. Reality is that, the baby is too young for that kind of hairstyle. Infact there's absolutely no reason why a baby should be having that kind of worry. Who's the mom trying to impress? |
European Football (EPL, UEFA, La Liga) › Re: Nairaland Fantasy Premier League 2024/2025 by Trojan8(m): 3:51pm On Oct 08, 2024 |
iamoyindamola: Una welcome to my world My position doesn't justify my point level at all  |
Celebrities › Re: VeryDarkMan Fans Threatened To Kill My Daughter! - Femi Falana (Video) by Trojan8(m): 8:42am On Oct 08, 2024 |
Just look at what a SAN is saying. How do you measure "supporters"? |
European Football (EPL, UEFA, La Liga) › Re: Nairaland Fantasy Premier League 2024/2025 by Trojan8(m): 8:40am On Oct 08, 2024 |
|
European Football (EPL, UEFA, La Liga) › Re: Nairaland Fantasy Premier League 2024/2025 by Trojan8(m): 1:47pm On Oct 06, 2024 |
Jota missed two big chances yesterday which counted against him. People like Trent and Saka create loads of chances.
If you observe, Odeegard benefitted from this last season |
European Football (EPL, UEFA, La Liga) › Re: Nairaland Fantasy Premier League 2024/2025 by Trojan8(m): 5:53pm On Sep 28, 2024 |
Emaprince: I bought son and took off palmer last game week...and from that week, palmer statted scoring and assisting. na wa o. Great decision  |
European Football (EPL, UEFA, La Liga) › Re: Liverpool Vs Nottingham Forest (0 - 1) On 14th September 2024 by Trojan8(m): 5:39pm On Sep 14, 2024 |
BadMaster: Szoboszlai kicked the ball away even after he heard the whistle , yet Michael Oliver didn't give him a yellow card. This is the inconsistency we keep talking about.
Arsenal is the only team that has been booked this season for such, even when the ball was in a non-threatening position. Calm down with the lies. Two United players (Bruno and Maguire) got booked for same thing today. Why the lies? |
Jobs/Vacancies › Re: Totalenergies EP Nigeria 2024 Recruitment by Trojan8(m): 11:16am On Sep 08, 2024 |
haftob: Mail for Logistics came in yesterday evening Risk Analyst or Accountant? Any update? |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Trojan8(m): 12:05pm On Sep 05, 2024 |
It is annoying to see people with almost no contributions TA/FA wise always coming to talk about how one person is this or that.
We are here to make money, sieve out the BS that you don't like and on.
All these daily back and forth it tiring.
Enough said abeg. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Trojan8(m): 1:17pm On Sep 02, 2024 |
yMcy56: If you dont mind picking some CWG....... One director or so is busy offloading at the moment.......offloading which is highly likely connected to plans to meet the free float requirements of NGX......though they got the extension to meet up with the requirements by2026.
- Last quarter result came out great.... - Dividend payout and PAT increasing Y-O-Y..... - In ICT sector ....... - OS 2.5bn .......out of which 82.70% of it are in the hands of substantial shareholders - Remaining shares, less than 20% in the public (around 520M).
** Do your DD I no Sabi book nor Sabi interprete result o. 
** Also MTNN if you can get around the IPO price or below........that's if it gets there before reversing when ready to move. Thank you very much. I appreciate the recommendation, I'll look at it accordingly. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Trojan8(m): 10:45am On Sep 02, 2024 |
KarlTom: TRUE. Based on available information.
The AFS (which will clear some doubts) will add more fuel to the engine...  I am actually waiting for this. Sept 30th come far |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Trojan8(m): 10:18am On Sep 02, 2024 |
What are we buying this week?  Oando's ship has sailed unless you have crazy risk tolerance. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Trojan8(m): 9:06am On Aug 30, 2024 |
designking: The more education I get about this Oando deals the more I see why the Nigerian politicians, Billionaires and elites are buying every loose shares in Oando. They are shutting out the poor and consolidating their positions.
The best option is to sit tight and observe how things go instead of quickly taking profits. This is funny though |
Technology Market › Re: House Clearance Sales.. Come In Here!!!! by Trojan8(m): 1:43pm On Aug 29, 2024 |
That's crazy, I am still in shock.
RIP GAZZUZ. Your impact was well felt. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Trojan8(m): 10:46am On Aug 28, 2024 |
MARKETJJC:
anytime JAPAULGOLD moves like it is doing now, by the time real bull spirit comes up on it, the ride will be mad. I see JAPAULGOLD breaking higher highs I am even thinking of buying more  |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Trojan8(m): 10:40am On Aug 28, 2024 |
JapaulGold doing the Lord's work. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Trojan8(m): 11:04am On Aug 27, 2024 |
megawealth01: Na so una go move am to #20+ 
C&I did exactly what MULTIVERSE did...
The beautiful thing about them is they have started being profitable...
Check out what brand of business they do...
Are you aware they provide services to banks etc and they are licensed by CENTRAL BANK OF NIGERIA? I'll be there. I wasn't aware of the kind of business they do to be fair. My interest is more in Oil and Gas but it's always nice to see good calls give fine returns. |