₦airaland Forum

Roland17:
I am enjoying the debate but Local man is now weak! Head don dey pain me.. E no suppose hard like this fam.

Baba say na stake! Let me correct you once again and reiterate that the Nigerian Government owns 100% of all shares, assets, oil blocs and refineries of the NNPCL. Not a percentage, not a stake, not a quota but 100% OF IT ALL. These are vested 100% through the Ministries of Finance and Petroleum.

You are indirectly making my point for me. The fact that you are accepting that the Government is earning revenue through dividends proves my point. IS THE NNPCL GIVING DIVIDENDS TO ANY OTHER ENTITY, INCLUDING PRIVATE GROUPS? They can no longer remit to the FAAC because they are no longer a line item on our National budget and are now commercialized with the idea of being self sustained. The Nigerian Government through the Ministries of Finance and Petroleum own 100% of the shares, consequently, they get dividends na. In 2024 when it small portions get publicly traded for the first time, share holders will earn dividends.

Question: Which other group or private entity can secure a $3B loan just to help the government in defending the Naira? This thing no suppose hard like this.

But this is irrelevant to the transaction that took place na. Do you even understand what I'm saying here?

The 3 billion dollars is tied to future Royalties and Taxes. What does that have to do with ownership or stake?, 0% or 100% , NNPCL will still pay royalties and taxes to the government.

Dividends has nothing to do here, I was only bringing it up to show you other ways the government can now get money from NNPC.

To answer your question, in the real world, there are all kinds of structured deals that can be created out of nothing especially with the government revenue/payment. The Capital market exists for these sort of reasons

Roland17:
Hahahahahaa.. Exactly what I thought. You see why I said you boxed yourself into a corner.

The entire assets, shares (which are non transferable by the way, I can explain that later if you want) oil blocs, refineries are 100% owned the government and vested through the Ministries of Finance and Petroleum. No private citizen or IOC/ group or agency owns any share belonging to NNPCL, at least not at this time.

Do not misconstrue the idea of commercializing and making the NNPCL self sufficient to mean any percentage of its shares now belongs to a private group. The difference is that, there is no longer a line item in the national budget for NNPC, consequently, it is expected to fund it’s self and primarily become a source of generating revenue. The PIB which produced NNPCL has so many parts.

In 2024, there are plans to start selling a percentage of its shares to the public for the first time. You see why I asked you who owns the shares, asserts, oil blocks and refineries? If I own 100% of shares, assets, oil blocs and refineries of NNPCL, am I not the owner? Especially since they are still vested under government ministries!

In terms of risk, AFREXIM still hold the higher risk and the breakdown proves it. AFREXIM borrowed NNPCL money which the government is using to stabilizing the value of the Naira NOW. The terms of the loan repayment, including interest rates have already been set and is not futuristic, consequently the NNPL already know their commitments and external factors of the future will not bite their commitment or change any of the current terms as hard in comparison to NNPCL.

Do you think AFREXIM are hoping to be payed back the same amount of money they loaned? Absolutely not and that is why they would be praying the market booms, so the value from the sales of oil increases, which in turn increases the value of proceeds they get from futuristic sales.

When you make a futuristic investment, you are taking a huge risk beyond your control. Changes in the Global oil market, inflation and government policies are some external factors beyond your control can affect the viability of your investment. The Government through NNPCL have the money they need now, what has AFREXIM gained now?

If oil booms in the future and we don’t increase oil production there would literally no difference because our oil production has not been stable for nearly 10 years.

None of which you have put up there changes anything.

Having a stake in a Limited Liability Company completely changes everything - As far as I know, Entity concept is still in existence

AFREXIM's risk and counterparty is NOT TO THE GOVERNMENT, I still dont get what this debate is about.

I hope you also realise that the real means of government earning from NNPC now can only be through dividends, Royalties and Taxes unlike before where there was direct remittance to FAAC - This, I think is where your confusion is coming from but it would also explain why they went through this route rather than dealing directly with the government

Whatever terms of loan and repayment is tied to the volumes of production which AFREXIM collects. We call it VPP ( Volumetric Production Payment), the simplest kind

I have alluded to two hedges - Increase in production and/or increase in Oil price. AFREXIM is taking a fixed bet here, NNPC is taking a contango. Almost similar to a bank giving a fixed loan and there are interest rates movement in the future.

I have spoken clearly to the dynamics of the transaction, You are conflating things.

Also AFREXIM can easily hedge their risk (making it variable ) by entering into an agreement now to sell same to other counterparties - taking the entire risk off their books.

Like I said, I still dont get what the debate is about

Roland17:
Baba no nawwww. You boxed yourself into this corner and are now trying to creatively turn amala.

You asked who the counter party is and my question still stands.. “Who owns the shares, assets and oil blocs and refineries of NNPCL”? Your answer to this question will define the future of this argument.

You still arent getting it.

You talked about AFREXIM risk, and I said they'll be fine seeing as their counterparty is NNPC, not the government.

Maybe you dont know but NNPC is now a Limited Liability Company and no longer government owned. They operate in the strict commercial sense now. NNPC and its assets are a JV between the FG and some other IOC's - I think GloriousGbola can help me here

So the transactions are clearly separate and NNPC is operating as a commercial entity and not based on Government direct control so AFREXIM has little to do with the Government

Roland17:
Who holds the shares, assets and oil blocs of NNPCL?

Ure not getting it.

NNPC has the loan agreement with AFREXIM.

NNPC also has a (future) obligation with the government - Royalties & Taxes.

NNPC is simply swapping their obligation with the loan agreement

Roland17:
I will wait to see the timeline to agree on that because it is so vague.

However, AFREMIX are the ones actually assuming the risk based on assurances from the government and speculators. They hope the prices go up so they can double their investment, irrespective of production levels.

If the govt were assuming that risk then it would have been a dangerous bet we can’t afford, especially if it fails.NNPC is assuming the lesser risk here because they have gotten the FX needed to help us right now.

Their counterparty is NNPC not the Government. I think they are good

Roland17:
We actually have to increase production to even benefit from this. Global oil prices are pretty high and while not impossible, I don't see it going higher than it's current state.

More importantly, we have not put anything in place to show we can increase short term oil-production and stop the theft going on.

It is likely to.

Infact what the govt has done is bet on it by entering into the agreement now. Just like taking a contango

GloriousGbola:
I think this explains why asari has suddenly become a noisemaker. Obviously he has been engaged to put a stop to oil theft. And like wike he is aggressively going outside of the assignment.

I'm a bit ignorant on the politics side of those.

But it'll be a huge bonus if there can be result on that end

Roland17:
And pray fervently that the oil market doesn't tank/ get saturated and that our inflation numbers get better.

If I was a bettor, I will say our oil production will remain same.

Well, you would also have to bet against Oil prices not going up which is looking unlikely.

At least in the near-term

Roland17:
It actually is.

A plus for the Government if they increase production during the said period

A big "if" though

GloriousGbola:
NNPC at its core for all the talk about being NNPCL is still a govt entity. NNPC earns fx. But does not have enough fx on hand. Looks like the FG will inject this Fx into the market to counter the current volatility.

NNPC earns it's fx and pays the bank back.

Na.

It's secured against Royalties and taxes owed in advance to the govt.

Also from what I know of AFREXIM, I wouldn't rule out the loan repayment being hedged against the direct receipt/sale of crude-oil. Nigeria may need to ramp up its production

Shaytun:
Of course.

It’s a great move, an intelligent and interesting one.

Definitely a bad news for speculators.

A brilliant move.

Can be short termism though. As long as the when and how the liquidity is injected into the market is kept secret

nateevs:
It is 3 at the back. Confirmed from the start.

I know.

Wanted him to confirm seeing as it was one of his criticism of TT

popizaino:
I think so.

It was a rhetorical question.

Glad you agree

popizaino:
Shey una dey see sweet sassy football?

Please confirm our formation

Is it 3 at the back?

Nah that was class by Enzo.

Been seeing the through pass all day long

Altern8tor:
Na goals I wan see,,no be shaku shaku

Blame Sterling.

Could count at least 3 chances this half where he was free for a through pass

User09:
The left side is complete rubbish

Chilwell, Gallagher and Chukwuemeka have been crap so far

Back to this again.

Another goal from there

Like what I'm seeing from Jackson so far

Just take a look at the rubbish midfield

The left side is complete rubbish

Chilwell, Gallagher and Chukwuemeka have been crap so far

Sterling missing easy passes for through-ball back to back

andrewbaba44:
After spending close to 1 billion ,see as the team be like Sheffield Wednesday

Just look this team and the only world class player here is that 57 year old Brazilian tinubu

Instead make dem buy quality na to Dey buy android version of players

To be fair, Boehly wants his own team and glory

At least that way, his ego will be boosted

nateevs:
Hehehe. All the 3ATB antagonists are spilling their coffee right now.

Looking forward to the spins this season

GloriousGbola:
there is one difference - woodberry is being deported back to nigeria. there are very few systems in place to audit or track him in nigeria. if he was an american citizen, he would be severely limited in what he could do.

it is possible he has money stashed somewhere, but there is no guarantee what can happen in 8 years. 8 years is a long long time.

Oh...Of course he does/did

Having access to it after eight years in electronic form is what is unlikely

Bombblacks:
Before going further into this back and forth argument. Do you agree that this below is a sex crime? Your answer will determine my next reply. Take note we are talking about sex in the work place and how an individual can be coerced into consent.

The word coercion is not the best use of all the prior examples. but yes the example you gave should fall under sex crimes

Bombblacks:
He won't be able to hide them from the U.S government. They would have throughly ransacked each and every transaction and I.P address he had any dealing with. Maybe you have forgotten what they did to those hackers and the Sony stolen cash that was converted to Bitcoin.

Anybody who thinks Woodberry is coming out to meet his hidden loot or a possibility of it still doesnt know how this works or to what extent his plea bargain culminated.

Only peeps I know who get away with it in real life is in narcotics and obviously cos its in physical cash

Bombblacks:
Being coerced into consensual sex definitely falls under rape and sex crimes. Let me give you an example. A manager threatening an employee to have sex if not he/She will sack or implicate that employee for stealing etc and the individual agrees due to that pressure can be counted as rape. Harvey Weinstein is a perfect example. What are you talking about ?If you are being coerced into parting with your cash how is it not robbery. Is that not what you call 419.

These were not the examples that were given earlier, we were speaking of relationships with power dynamics - Which I could easily argue exist in ALL relationships. Also u skipped the example where I talked about men having sex when madam is ovulating even when they would prefer not to; Does that count as rape?

419 refers to fraud or claims to obtain money fraudulently. The mens rea is obvious here. I'm talking about parting with my cash when I dont want to because I was coerced/compelled to due to "our power dynamic" relationship. Does that count as robbery?

Bombblacks:
Most of you are using the word consensual loosely. Do you believe an individual can't be coerced into consensual sex ?

Doesnt make it rape though.

Ask any married couple you know, this is quite common; many a time when she's ovulating.

Also, if I'm compelled into parting with my cash, does it make it robbery?

Shaytun:
Someone forged their JAMB results and people are seeing it as a tribal fight, And trying to defend and make excuses for it because of tribalism.

Some of you people are really sick and in need of serious intervention.

I'm tired of Nigerians being sentimental and supporters of bad behaviour. All wild stupid theories when the custodian of the result has provided all the clarity needed and is even the one prosecuting her

The attached clearly puts things in context

afrodoc:
You too hype this guy sha. So na copy and paste e too dey do?

Good that he made a public correction and apology sha.

Funny thing about the guy is he writes obvious things and calls them predictions

Then comes back and claims he "called" it many months back.

Not to puncture his academic achievements, but I particularly find his comments and articles on business, economics and finance underwhelming.

BlueRayDick:
Lolz …. In Nigeria things don’t usually work like u expect them to .

I will give an example of a popular lekki pastor who took a loan from a commercial bank to roof his ultra modern worship center . The loan is spread for a 4 years period and the loan documents clearly showed means of repayment as “ offering , tithes , special donations, pledges and special seeds “ .

The repayment of the loan is not even tied to what the loan is being used for . U will be surprised if the man repays the loan within 2 years cos his source of repayment ehn, miracle fit happen in form of crusade 😆.

I’m not saying Dangote is clean o, but I think whatever he’s doing to be repaying those loans , only him knows . I’m just for us not thinking it’s false he’s already repaying even when the lenders through the CBN confirmed he actually is repaying .

I wonder what stupid bank gave the loan based on the bolded. What kind of risk management do they even run in Nigeria banks

I would expect it to pass through several of these type commitees before approval. Except of course, you dont have the full story

Even with his alter ego, Olowun still clashes with his archenemy.

Must be a nemesis thing