₦airaland Forum

dollyp1cute:
@Wendy, any fundamentals whatsoever on CAPOIL.

I heard they just came out of dormancy last year after a long time, and that some investors put a stake in backend of last year.

But that is all I got?

Yes o, that's all I heard too, plus the fact that they're rapidly expanding and cover a good part of the eastern markets. I'm not recommending as a fundamental stock though, just a quick 10 - 15% cico move (for those who care to take that risk  ).

wanaj0:
Not on my shopping list. Yes mortgage sector is good but the margin is small and the gestation period is too long for the Nigerian environment. Solid company but does not fit my investment plan. Left only 5,000 units there to enable me get annual reports and monitor the company.

So which ones dey your shopping list? I'm beginning to think of closing out my cico positions and move into safer havens as i'm getting too busy these days to pay constant attention to the market. Any takers on which ones are good to go?

oh, and I forgot to add all the usual caveats (empty, emptress, emptor etc etc)

windywendy:
Hmmm, UAC-prop. Here's what I think: The stock is expensive at the current price (forward P/E is about 28, based on the assumption that they're able to grow FY07 profit by like 10%. I even think 10% is being optimistic considering the fall in turnover they experienced for the first 6mths of this year). However, if you're into long term investing, I'll say this is a good stock. IFC invested in the company sometime last year and they've (i.e. uac prop) been putting the money to some serious use, developing properties in many areas around the country, especially Lagos. These new investments should show up in results for the current year. Short-term wise, I don't believe this is a good stock. I won't expect anything interesting for their year end results which should be released sometime in April or May, as they declared only 35kobo last year.

That's all I know.

ty_ademolu:
Windy Wendy and Wanajo with my TopGun official

What do you think about UAC-Prop. na so the thing don dey free fall since I buy am?

Hmmm, UAC-prop. Here's what I think: The stock is expensive at the current price (forward P/E is about 28, based on the assumption that they're able to grow FY07 profit by like 10%. I even think 10% is being optimistic considering the fall in turnover they experienced for the first 6mths of this year). However, if you're into long term investing, I'll say this is a good stock. IFC invested in the company sometime last year and they've (i.e. uac prop) been putting the money to some serious use, developing properties in many areas around the country, especially Lagos. These new investments should show up in results for the current year. Short-term wise, I don't believe this is a good stock. I won't expect anything interesting for their year end results which should be released sometime in April or May, as they declared only 35kobo last year.

That's all I know.

wanaj0:
IBTC is changing its financial end to December to agree with the Standard Bank group and CBN directive. Will take affect from April 1  2007!!!! So no declaration till this time next year from IBTC!!!!!!!! Na 21 months result them go declare

Isn't the current year end March? So they should be releasing one around August this year for the March 2008 year end. There should also be one for the year-ended december 2008 (though that will be a 9-month result) and then from 2009 things get regularized. Abi I miss am?

Oga Wanaj0, any news about Negris?

As a minor distraction: you guys won't believe what happened yesterday. I was interviewing this guy for a position my employer is looking to fill and at the end of the interview, asked for references. The guy was like "sorry i can't give you references until you've given me the job, because I don't want my references getting disturbed by phone calls." I was like   , and almost fell off my chair out of sheer shock !!! The other interviewer was also like   . I wonder why the yeye guy flew all the way here only to come and pull off a senseless stunt like that   I guess some peeps just don't get it  

He now sent me an email this morning saying thanks for the opportunity to interview and that he's very excited about working with us _{yeah right, like we're going to be stupid enough to hire "his royal cockiness, king of cocky town"}. Amazing, init?

Mr. Risky:
Aunty WindyWendy  Just kidding; we might be of the same age  Anyways, how much would you buy NIWI for a 12 month time frame investment?  Just wondering whether or not its safe to go in at N10 now that you pioneers have opened your hands a little to release some

The one and only Mr. Risky himself   How old young you be?  

I honestly doubt that niwicable will fall to 10 o! Infact I don't see this profit taking lasting too long. I'll begin to re-enter around the 12 mark. Having said that though, things will depend on how I see the market performing. The market has a mind of its own o, so make we watch and see.

aktopgun:
@pumice

hey man, long time. don't be a stranger. show face once in a while abeg.

Could u post the bounce u ar etalking about. i see it but want to confirm with urs.

@windywendy

big sis, wassup. . remeber your boy with that niwicable loot o . make i send u acct details?

Big sis ke? me and you be the same age na Hmmm, no worry. Make I first settle my broker then I go come look your side small.

loma:
@aktopgun,

Na pure CICO me I de do for Niwi o, sold yesterday, and today o! Even Livestock, I sell!

If Niwi drop well, I go buy again. People like Windy, na on top of their seat they store all the wire and cables, so I sure say na long haul them dey. . . .

Who tell you say na long haul I dey eh? Anyway, you correct small sha. I sold a substantial portion today and will be watching to see how the stock does. The stock still get potential sha, let's wait for profit takers to finish undoing their thing.

@all who own capoil, looks like the bleeding is almost over. Also looks like another quick cico opportunity (for only the brave hearted o! -- _{otherwise you'll have to be paying a psychiatric visit to aktopgun and blueband}   )

@Pumping777, you still dey online? you no dey sleep?

loma:
I do not see how this helps Unilever in a big sense. They are paying HP $675 million to handle their IT needs, this pays HP. . .

Presumably, a cost-benefit analysis would have been done before the outsourcing decision was taken. The assumption here is that it is cheaper (and possibly more efficient) for Unilever to outsource its IT needs to HP than to handle those needs inhouse. The implication of this is lower admin costs which should bump up Unilever's bottom line. It's a 7-year contract, so there's no telling when the cost benefit will begin to show up in the company's profits -- my thinking is that it certainly won't be showing up in the current FYE. But this is definitely a step in the right direction if you ask me.

beginner:
WindyWendy

I would appreciate a reply please. Is Lasaco a fundamentally strong company. Thank you

I personally think lasaco is a fundamentally strong company because of the opportunities they have with regard to both the local content policy and mandatory health insurance for govt. workers. If you're buying for the long term, I will consider the current price too high (projected PE by my calcs is about 38, based on my assumption that they are able to grow FYE profit by 20% from their Q3 profit). With these insurance companies, I'm not sure how they'll perform at the end of the year, but my suspicision is that Lasaco will do better than I expect. Year-end result is likely to be out from as early as May to as late as August. So, to answer your question: Yes, I think lasaco is fundamentally strong, but am not sure right now is a good time to enter. It's currently on the down trend, so wait and see what happens.

aktopgun:
utc

Yes o, I get your point on UTC but it seems like demand picked up today for this stock, more strongly than that of the previous 2 trading days. It's highly risky no doubt, but looks like it would add some few points before the week runs out. Would be good for a quick 10% (post commission) profit. That's why I said "cico". Today would have been the best time to get in sha.

@ACL: don't buy if you're not into cico, and your broker can't get tomorrow.

bibiking1:
I would advice all those short termers to avoid trading tomorrow, wait for the Presidential Tribunal judgement first, well long termers una no get problem, trade any time lol

you no see say all those fat women don occupy all those space
In truth i think it is extremely risky getting into the stock now o!!! its gone and any attempt to catch it might result in a bloody injury (like Eduardo)
In a bullish market i rather be fearful than greedy!!!!!

Are you talking about Oando? It hasn't gone too far na. Try to factor in the kind of valuation multiples an upstream company will get and compare with the current price. Add to that the market stats you've seen the stock do in the last 3 days plus including market sentiments. You're looking at a stock that'll rise all this week and possibly well into next. That's what me thinks sha.

aktopgun:
windy, pictorials to push home the point on aiico

Chei, see as candle come put light for my opinion. I go learn this candle thing by force o! Make I go take my vacation sef  

Abeg shine the light on cutix too. Looks like that one is also headed for a down turn. I don't have that one though.

ACL:
hello madam windy
dint know u are still online.
how are u doing.
can u please give me a good stock against tomorrow?  i have small idle funds in my acct after selling my vitafoam but the thing keeps rising after useless 25k Div.

Hmmm, I don't know your risk appetite, so I'll just recommend both CICO and others

Fundamentally -- oando (sure you've read all the buzz already from last week). PRESCO too (I bought at 14 some weeks back though)
NSL -- both cico and fundamentals. Today would have been ideal but tomorrow won't be too late either.
UTC -- cico. Will not hold for more than a week at the most, or at least watch until you notice any turbulent signs.
FAN -- potentially good Long term. Also good for cico. Be looking to sell before it hits the 6 mark (strictly my opinion though).
IPWA -- highly risky. Cico only, would not hold for more than 5 days or thereabout (what with the feb. 6 syndrome  )

As usual, these are just my opinions.

@all who are still holding on to Aiico, I would sell tomorrow if I were in your shoes. I'm just looking at the price and volume trend and don't like what I see. This is for short termers who want to take profit o! Long termers in the stock can stay put (or better still sell and buy after profit taking subsides). My own opinion though.

@easimoni, check your email at easimoni2004 at yahoo.

Gotta get back to work, will post later.

pumping777:
@windywendy - make he no be like say I no answer your question about wetin I come see for insurance sector.

I sabi say if u look that insurance sector well well, u go see wetin I dey talk. No need for analysis sef. I just no fit talk am as I never get my trade alerts finish and my broker no be "superman" and Yodi don talk say make I keep quiet  .

Ok o, no problem. My email don dey your dormot.

pumping777:
But you have to note that Unity lost 3 days in a row and just went positive again. I think we are all getting used to stocks that just rise in one direction. So for me, there was more buying pressure today for the dip to be halted.

The trend has been bullish all month. A few dips here and there.

As far as this month is concerned, the stock is on an up trend. It has moved slowly but steadily from the low of N8.11 to the current price of 9.85 and I think today is the first day that the high for the day crossed N10. In that time the stock has dipped several times but the net effect is for it to inch higher and personally I think it is getting some help.

I have a bit sha and I like the movement.

The bolded parts are my thoughts exactly. Anyway let's see what happens from here on.

@yodiyokun: na you sabi o!   Na you dey talk this kin tin . . . "the fear of windywendy . . .". Hmmmm, God dey  .

ololufemi:
@ Windy Wendy,

My sister congrats on the MTN offer. More grease to your elbow. No carry your money go unitybank oh. It is too risky now. Look inside insurance for now or banking, opportunities dey there. Besides on unity u can just do only about 25% max nowand the fear of TS is the beginning of --------

, but e get one bank wey go be the bomb soon.
Its difficult to get it now though.

Thank you jare. But me don already enter unity bank, though my entry price was around the N8 range. It will take some real bad news to dip the price below that range. I know it's a risky deal ( i knew that going in) but it's a calculated risk, the odds of which will almost certainly turn out in my favor.

On this bank wey go be the bomb, how far? wetin be the code name?   _{na so-so code we go dey talk from now on}  

wanaj0:
I am disappointed!!!! Thought you will break the bank for that one so that you can get return money

I wanted to break the bank o, but na so I see one FBI agent dey there dey bone seriously with im aktopgun47, so I just kuku simmer. I no like return money wahala at all, although they returned the exchange rate difference -- I would have preferred if they used that one to allot additional shares   _{yeah right abi?}  

@aktopgun, on unity bank, unless i'm looking at the wrong price list, I see that it traded above 10 today and closed just shy of 10. Also, the average price for today was higher than the last closing. Don't these indicate some buying pressure?

The list i'm looking at is the TRW list.

woooowww! I just got word that I got 100% allotment on my MTN application.   . Perfect!

_{i think i better take the day off . . . wey that my canadian oga sef}  

@Pumping777: abeg wetin be that thing wey you discover this weekend. I'm interested.

eniyanman:
I think it matters BIG TIME that you own the shares you recommend or make it clear you don't. I'll explain with an analogy. Assume you are new to canoeing and your neighbour recently bought an old dinghy off ebay. Which of the options are you (or anyone feel free to answer) most likely to take
1. hit bar-beach on your own with his old dinghy.
2. option 1 but with the added knowledge that your neighbour had previously used this dinghy.
3. he offers to go with you and you both hit bar-beach together.

No one should be afraid of analysing stocks on this forum because of the fear of failure. (I suggest you read "The truth about markets" - John Kay). It is by experimentation, trial and error and improving on what works that we better understand markets. What you suggest is that we don't have peer-reviews on different technical/non-technical methods. That would be very bad. By reviewing each other's methods is how we arrive at something that best enhances our knowledge of how the NSE works. I have learnt from Aktopgun (by the way, I don't think he recommends stocks, he just analyses them) the use of candle analysis which I combine with FA.

Finally, I agree that no method is 100% successful, every TA is basically a probability ratio of whether (given events in the past), that a share price is likely to rise or fall. The degree to which the method used is able to accurately define these probabilities determine how successful it is.

@all, fortune favours the brave. Continue to do all the analysis wey you fit do. Me I go read am.

I think the issue of whether or not one owns a stock prior to recommending has been adequately addressed by other posters and will therefore not add anything extra.

With regard to the bolded portion above, you've got me completely wrong. I'm not in any way suggesting that we don't have peer reviews of any methods being used to analyze stocks. I'm simply saying: stop the unnecessary attacks. We all know that no one method of stock analysis is flawless so why jump on someone who has taken time to analyze using techniques that have been proven to work at least some of the time, when in fact the person doing the jumping is not proposing another method that we can use? That's destructive criticism and will not foster the sharing spirit that this forum has enjoyed until recently. My point of view on this matter can't get any simpler than that.

I think this issue has taken more energy than it deserves already, so abeg let's move on.

shigidi:
omo you guys how far im seriously thinking of taking  small position in unity bank. but is the profit worth it it can't do more than 30%, there must be better offers out there

huh Am I seeing what I think i'm seeing?? Shig wan do CICO?? Na lie o!! _{who have you been talking to lately}

FatherOF2:
Ahhhhhh sister you miss that one oh, BIG TIME.I no say you dey busy so you dey miss date easily for here. Make you go check my post well well, very well well oh. E dey very easy to check am.When you don trace my post finish, check the date when Seun attach to am.I think you know how to trace post. YOU MUST TRACE AM. No let your eye GLAZE as you dey trace am oh. When you don trace am finish, go www.cscsnigerialtd.com. Then go to price history, when you find the price when match the date of my post or the preceeding date,i want make you come talk am for here with great speed and alacrity.I get stake in any stock i talk (very important u know).
I remember i quiz you one day on Unilever some weeks ago. " I ASK IS IT TIME". That na my question to you. You know wetin happen one-two weeks later Abi.
My sister timing na the blood of NSE. Make you go confirm that ccnn date again eh.
On another note, are you still thinking of exiting your Unilever at N26 as you talk that time?.Check am well oh.

My bros, I no miss nathin at all. Go back to your posts of January 2 (from page 278) and read where you were recommending ccnn saying that there's still room for growth, etc. That was my first point of contact with you on CCNN. The price then was N24. Infact I remember questioning you on what you saw in the stock at that price and you drew my attention to the 9month result. How the price has moved from then until now is history. Whether or not you have a stake in any stock that you recommend is of no importance to me, really. One can very well recommend a stock that might be suitable for another person, but not for their own portfolio. That one does not have a stake in a stock doesn't mean one can't or shouldn't recommend it.

My point in this whole thing is that no one is right all the time, as no stock picking method works 100% of the time just by virtue of the fact that psychology plays a large part in the way the market goes. We already have the fear of deep pockets preventing people on the forum from letting out stock ideas until they've purchased and we certainly don't need any more fears on the forum. If we begin to have a situation where people get punched in the nose for being wrong in their analysis after the fact, then people will begin to hesistate to do any analysis for fear of being jumped on if the analysis turns out to be the wrong call after the fact. So let's refrain from attacking people's stock picking methods. If you don't like a particular method, feel free to skip it or just simply propose another one that works. That's all i'm saying.

As per unilever, me don sell that one long time at 24.98. No time wasting for that side at all.

LondonCool:
Quote:Windywendy

@Windywendy,

Haba! Why dress me up in borrowed robes (apologies to Shakespeare)? I'm only a silent listener to every conversation on this forum. As a Volume investor I carefully peruse every TIP here and apply my candlesticks for verification.I'm still learning.

Haha! I'm not dressing you up in borrowed robes o! and if the robes were hitherto borrowed, they're now yours to keep  . Your contributions to the forum have been very valuable. I do a lot of TA myself, but not candlestick analysis. So yourself, aktopgun and bibiking1 have challenged me to go take a peak into that form of analysis. Please keep the good work going, it's really appreciated.

Make I put mouth small for your plans to accumulate dunlop: since you're doing this for the long term, it would be better if you do not buy at a premium like the cico-ers would. So my advice to you would be to wait until the company releases its results for this year (which would most likely be below expectations) and then take your position when the shares start getting dumped by short-termers taking profit. That way, you don't get to buy at a premium and you increase your upside potential. Just my 2cents sha. In the meantime you can put your money to better use elsewhere.

JAZES:
. . . @Billions point of correction the church/d believer doesnt have a covenant with christ because we are born of him.We never did anytin before he died for us and he did it as an act of his love.So we need no covenant watsoever.
Please read your bible.

_{wondering what the word "testament" means . . .}

Pls let this one go to the religious section, abeg. Thanks!

FatherOF2:
@ aktopgun
  You can see Longman yesterday.High=Low=Close= N31.40. CANDLES NO DEY PREDICTIVE.Its only after the fact.
And i think its important you buy what you recommend so you also have a stake in the action.
I go give you one candle test for a stock when go soon move.Make you ready.

Fatherof2 how na?   If you say candles no dey predictive, show us your method that is predictive, abi? As far as I know, no method is fully predictive 100% of the time, not even yours. Abi no be you recommend CCNN several weeks back when it was N25 and above? It nose-dived since then and hasn't been able to breach that price yet. There have been other stocks which you recommended and were wrong in retrospect, and that applies to everyone including myself. No one method is 100% correct 100% of the time, so let's stop all this unnecessary attacks on different methods and just focus on doing our best to recommend stocks that will help us make good money using whatever tools we have at our disposal. If you get method wey dey 100% predictive, make you share. Na me go first collect and apply, in addition to both the FA and TA I currently use to select my stocks.

Mr. Risky:
Windy, thanks for the response.  But I was thinking you would add some ingredients, like telling us about Deap Capital, what they are into blah,blah its future.  Just in case you know sha.  You know you, Wanajo, Pumping777 have a way of using good technical oyibo to tell us about company "bottomline", "upside" and "topline" etc etc.  Actually, what do you know about this ambitious company.  Please don't feel I am taking you for granted, you have been quite generous to us all.  thanks

Chei, see lazy man   You no sabi google?

Anyway, I've uploaded their last prospectus for you. See link below.

http://www.megaupload.com/?d=9RM30K6Z

Another thing you can do is look through Ebony9ja's posts, he's the DEAP CAPITAL guru