₦airaland Forum

frankiriri:
@ Napoleon
Very interesting and informative posts. Please do upload the data on Starcomms and Multilinks soon. In the alternative you can mail it to pumping to do the upload.

Yes o, I concur fully. Please email to Pumping (Pumping777(at) yahoo) sorry pumping, _{I got your email addy from an earlier page}, so that we can do some quick analysis.

@Napolean, your posts are very informative. Thanks!

omo_boy:
This is the quote of the day for me which corroborates what others have said regarding the almighty borker being the last and weakest link in this CICO business. They can make or break all your assumptions in technical analysis,

@ WindyWendy: we wey no get Superman broker, wetin we for do now You fit connect us with your personal broker for FSDH?

Hmmm, I'm not sure if giving his name on the forum will be appropriate. But im first name na IK _{no be from my mouth you hear am oh}

samstone4:
@Windy, Wendy

How goes the gale today?

I note that FSDH Securities are you brokers.

Please tell me roughly how long it takes them to verify your certificates and have them on CSCS. This has been an area of dissatisfaction for me.

Samstone4

Yes, certificate verification is an issue. From my experience though, the problem has been with the registrars and not with the broking house itself. It's been a while since I did POs, but with the last one, they got all my certificates even before I knew they did, and sent them for verification. The registrars took their time and i had to make several calls to them before the certificates were eventually sent to the CSCS _{by the registrars}.

Salvage:
@dollyp1cute

I didnt know you had already asked pumping that question before I clicked reply.

I am wondering the same thing.

E be like Oga pumping they put fire for Aiico rocket for CICO reasons

Some of us also have CICO plans in other Insurance firms too .

Your opinions here dey sell market o soo abeg easy on the other Insurance firms 

Wait o, are you accusing Pumping of "pumping and dumping"? 

Oya, oga Pumping777, defend yourself  your reputation is at stake o

blueband:
If Transcorp was not placed on TS it would have reached 20 naira and obviously that would have justified SECs position that dirty deals are going on on the NSE.SEC needs to be on top of their game or else sooner than later we no get any NSE again.Can you imagine Madam Onyuike saying SEC should have contacted them first,re-AFROIL,AP et al.A man goes to steal money and when police catch am,the thief papa dey vex say why police no contact am before going public.
I tire.

LOL!!!   . But in fairness to NSE, the SEC should have hinted them first na. Abi how else are they going to carry out the investigation conclusively since the trades are being done through the NSE? Infact one would have expected that the SEC would have investigated the nature of those trades and from whose accounts the shares were being traded before coming out to announce that they suspect fraud, and it's the NSE that can provide such info. Abi what do you think?

pumping777:
Afribank "rumour" is a close at it gets. It's the MD that dropped the hint. I posted the news story a day or two ago.

The important fact is that the bank is in a "position" to give bonus considering the number of outstanding shares. If the price of this stock does not move, how will they compensate those that bought the PO at N25?.

This is a done deal. The price must waka somehow.

You know, my knee jerk reaction was to initially disagree on the bank being in a position to give bonus. But on further thoughts you may just be right. Right now they have about 6.13b shares outstanding, including the bonus of last year. PO was for 4b and assuming they absorb 25% extra, that should bring total shares outstanding to 11.13b, which isn't much considering what we see from other banks. But Afribank is relatively a non-performer among the banks, so even the 11.13b outstanding will put the valuation at whacky levels -- unless of course they come out with fantastic results soon. So bottomline, there might be some truth to the bonus rumor afterall  

hbrednic:
some rumours are very close to the truth,afribank will be rewarding shareholders with both[b] bonus [/b] and dividens soonest.
so no shaking.

I'll be honestly shocked, if afribank gives another bonus. They just gave a 1 for 5 last year and have just concluded their PO. Why would they want to do a thing like give another bonus when they haven't even come up with meaningful ideas to increase their EPS?  Anyway, anything's possible in this market 

Iyke-D:
"Due process" is about to be taught real due process.  Like I said before, expect a $1billion
lawsuit against the Federal Government, after all it was the same Federal Government that
sold NITEL to Transcorp.     Abi? Its not Transcorp's problem if the same Federal Govt or
its agents failed to follow due process when their NITEL bid was accepted!

Unless the initial agreement with BPE specifially say that Transcorp MUST invest $1billion in
NITEL which it failed to do, Transcorp can wiggle out of this one, after all, business conditions
are subject to changes - lenders may change their minds, IPOs may fail, etc.  A promise is just
a promise! 

I think the fun part is just beginning and in the end, the government will be begging Transcorp,
to forget what was announced this weekend    We shall see.

I hope for your own sake that you're right. I know you have a good-sized stake in this company and I also recall the BIG argument that we had sometime ago when the PO was on. In all of this, one thing's for sure: an investment in transcorp has been a huge opportunity cost to those who invested. It's an outrage that the NSE and SEC allowed a company like this to come looking for funds in the equities market. For a company that had no history of operations, funds should only have been sought in the PP market where there's the appetite for much higher risk.

Chei, my broker sold all my capoil today. First I was like  _{who's doing the buying??} Later I was like  . Narrow escape with 19% in less than 2 wks.

Lesson #21: never do CICO unless your broker is superman 

Mr. Risky:
@Blueband, the blueband when you show na oyibo pikin I see there o.  Anyway it is accepted.

Truly, brokers are a recipe for disaster when they are not meeting expectations.  Since November, I have been offloading my portfolio from one broking firm. Three weeks ago when CILeasing was N9.60 I was forced to sell even that it is one stock I so much believe in.  Today CIleasing closed at N13 plus.  For 100,000units I have lost no less than N300,000 in just three weeks.  But is that all?  Do you know that I still have not received my cheque for the sale??  By my last call this evening, she said in her feminine tone "till Thursday next week, you know you are not in Lagos na.  Have a nice weekend" . Pay into my account now, no way

Mr. Risky, I no be blueband oh, but I say I must to respond to this your post.

Were you really forced to sell CI Leasing?

Did you really lose N300k?

I think the answer to both questions is NO.  

Napolean:
, Skye is also quite good. Especillay if it can drop slightly after suspension ,

Huh? You mean droping slightly from the current price after suspension? Well, in the words of one of my very good texan buddy, "that ain't never gon happen"  

debenzd:
WindyWendy,

how your pickin? Any new coy news?

she dey o thanks!. No coy news.

wanaj0:
RCCG floated a cooperative called Jubilee Cooperative some years ago. Jubilee Life is an ofshoot but RCCG does not own shares there. I think Felix Ohiwerie or so is the Chairman.

Not sure there is going to be preferential allotemnt, if there will be, I will let you know.

Intercontinental is not likely to buy them over. Intercontinetal already has Intercontinental Homes. They did a PP I think early last year and it was like over 700% oversubscribed. That was the first PP that I saw that people did not even get alloted the minimum as stated in the placement document!!! For me, any PP where there is no guarantee of FULL allotement, I don't move near. That's why Resort Savings and Loans is not a big deal for me.

Well, I expect Costain to start a free fall. Except you have a GOOD broker you may not even be able to sell. For those in for the LOng term, ne temporary setback. I expect another upsurge once the allotment result is out. There must be SERIOUS oversubscription!!!

First Bank has cooled off. Will join UBA at the 49.00 - 50.00 range. I however expect First Bank to ahv a surge around April.

BOC is resetting again but I have done thanksgiving with that. From <3.00 to 20.00 is enough except for someone that need deliverance from greed.

Chellarams still dey represent BIG time. No info yet about the old purported offer.

For those in it for the Long Term, start to accumulate May and Baker. 2007 result will not be fantastic. 2008 should however be a good one. Hopefully, the vaccines and food section should be contributing to profit by then.

NEM is still moving up!!! Na wa OOOOO!!!! Men o dey complain sha. Missed the rights @ N0.55

Transcorp is still racing upwards. Na wa for that one OO. Surprisingly, volume is still relatively small.

Anyone get Thomas Wyatt to sell?
Diamond shouldslow down a bit next week. However it is getting ready to move to the 25.00 mark as the interim bus stop. So those that need to enter should do so fast.

What's the deal with Thomas Wyatt? I know they recently did a  placement with Moorehouse management but I think their problem goes beyond just mis-management. Competition from cheaper and better quality products is killing them. Is there something else that you know is in the offing? Abeg let me in on it, as me sef like beta tin  

As regards costain, i don't see a free fall happening o. There are many waiting to collect once the price drops to some level, me inclusive  . Anyway, let's wait and see

chei, this SEC people just had to go and publish scary news about capoil the night before I decided to sell  . Looks like they had me in mind  . Anyway, no shaking.

@Crazy T: did you say Partnership investments is your broker? I just got an email from UBA global markets asking me to participate in a PP for a company called Partnership Investments Co. Ltd. Are these the same as your broker?

@Napolean, your posts are interesting and loaded with information. I like them. Is there any way you can make them shorter? _{make my eyes no glaze over as I dey read}

4wheel:
DUNLOP

Heard it from one of the stockbroking firms that Dunlop might take off, that the govt might ban importation of tyres favouring the local producers, but then Dunlop is the only one right now.

Can someone confirm this?
Thanks.

Thot the importation of tyres has been banned for a long time now. Or is this a new type of ban? or are they going to be re-inforcing the old ban?

pumping777:
BGL had an online portal but it's been down since November Reason was planned upgrade but I no fit guarantee o.

Email alone works for me so far. Calls are only for queries.

The service has been satisfactory. No complaints.

What has been your experience so far?

So far my experience has been pretty good, I'm quite impressed. The only thing is that once a stock goes on bid, I get the "stock is not available" excuse . Anyway, no problem there, it only means i'll have to stay a step ahead.

I see you're the one who swept up all the SCOA huh?? Anyway be careful with those guys oh, I'm not too keen on the fact that they lost a lot of market share. Even with the lucrative agreement they have with GE to market their products in Nigeria, they're not making much headway. From my perspective, that na shortterm stock oh, unless they get a more aggressive management team on board.

Mr. Risky:
Thanks sooooooooooooooo much Wendy. This is exactly what I wanted to hear. At least before the emergency on the power sector take any meaningful effect, AG Leventis and Cummin go don sell plenty generators. Even with the emergency, rural Nigeria will still rely heavily on generators. I go follow them, by this time next year AG Leventis share price go don de begin with 2, or 3, Na me and them this year.

Transcorp offer was at N7.50, once the price gets close I can see an angry army of INVESTORS tearing the price to pieces, even with the BEST NEWS. We are tired of hype. My consolation with transcorp has been the hotel (don't know if they even have an accountant there sef! I don tire). Thanks. This niwitchcable abi na niwicable, even at N12, na me and them One thing with your news is that it is always very reliable! Thanks for sharing, you will always be remembered.

Waitooo, Wendy, when will you take a ticket for election in your home country? No matter the magomago or womagowomago, you must win. NO TRIBUNAL

OMG!!! You too funny. Abeg make them no sack me for office o! which one be womagowomago ? I don laff tire.

So the transcorp PO was for N7.5? Which set of people bought at N6 then? Because someone I was speaking with yesterday told me he bought at N6. Abi was that from the floor?

Naijadr:
pumping, windywendy and others using BGL abeg is their online portal working now? My acct is open and I'm funding it so I'm ready to hit the market with that one full force.

since all the big men and women are coming out of the woodworks abeg anything for a 3mth or 6mth time frame. I think I'll just leave my BGL acct for trading due to efficiency, and use my UBA for my long term one.

Woodworks? LOL!!!   _{makes me think of those little bunnies dasing around}  

BGL has an online portal? Didn't know that! Anyway, I've never used it and wouldn't know if it's working. I send my mandates by email and follow up daily by both phone and email. I use FSDH more for my bigger transactions and they have an online portal.

Stocks for the 3 - 6mth timeframe?? Hmmm, that's the million dollar question innit?   I'll have to get back to you on that one.

Mr. Risky:
Wendy, thank you soooooooooooooooo much for the AG Leventis.  Even without the Superstore, I am still shopping .  I am more or less a medium to long termer, I was just wondering if I could grow with Leventis for the next three or so years.  Could you still confirm the Cummin connection, because I don't mind piling more units even at present price.  Has the story changed??  I can see you online, please answer me before you disappear, and maybe to reappear again, who knows maybe first week of March when Transcorp would have hit N10.  I can hear a whole congregation saying AMEN

Yarn me, ojare, QUEEN OF NEWS BEHIND THE NEWS

Na wa for nairaland and titles o! Which one be "queen of news behind the news" again  

Anyway the deal with Cummins is still on! Last I heard, Cummins is trying to pick up an equity stake in AG leventis. Not sure how this will affect the valuation -- esp. if more shares are issued to accommodate cummins, but this move at least testifies to the fact that the company is on the right track. Me don commot substantially from AG Leventis, but I still have some small units there sha.

As for Transcorp hitting N10, me no sabi that one o! There's a lot of pent up supply from very angry peeps who bought the PO at N6, and are just waiting to empty their shares on the floor once they break even  . I been wan do cico for this one last week, but fear no gree me. I went for capoil at 13.2 instead  

marco74:
yeah i got upl.sold a substantial part 2 weeks ago at just under 12 naira.i might just wait 4 another month and c how ci leasing plays out.as for niwicable,how much do u recommend i buy it at?it closed at 9.15 today i think?

Chei, this your question hard o!  Based on my analysis, I put a fair value of N8 on niwicable -- and this is based solely on the projected PAT of 500m which the core investors thinks is achievable. I got all my units at an average price of less than N7.8, and that's including commission. So from my perspective, 9.15 will seem expensive for the short term -- if you're in for CICO. However it might not be a bad idea for the medium term. And if these guys release any interim result that is even a tad bit better than the last one, chances are that the market will over-react and push the price to dizzying heights. I guess all i'm trying to say is: 9.15 ain't all that bad for the medium to long term, but you'll have to make the final call  

yodiyokun:
I know you are the turn around expert and all you infor sounds juicy - google is my friend.

But volume dey for this company? we still fit get to buy? that na the koko!!

Are you talking niwicable? have you looked at the volumes lately? There's volume na. Abi which stock are you referring to?

Temmie10:
My sista, i have been on ground, tho i could have been more on ground,
its no point still counting last year's loot in febuary, that'll be foolish given the jan/feb we;re having ,
i have some idle cash now {i managed to jet out of FBN just in time }
do u have any stocks up your sleeve?,

What time frame are you looking at?

bibiking1:
when i was playing catching up a couple o' minutes ago i read a post about a guy who was advised on this thread and got his fingers burnt.
I hope i don't sound annoying, but it would be cooler if you learnt the ropes yourself, so that if Nairaland packs up you can still trade NSE

Good advice. Always better to do your own home work! Anyone advising is doing so based on their own view of the market but at the end of the day, take the information and do what you want with it, based on your own homework and convictions.

@bibiking1: So na you dey buy all the Juli wey dey floor abi? My broker couldn't get even 1 unit for me to buy. I heard they recently got some new capital injection, and there were also rumors of a bank wanting to buy a substantial stake in them -- not sure of the bank rumor though, but very sure of the capital injection. Anyway since I haven't been able to get, I might as well broadcast it  

aktopgun:
@easi

took a look at niwicable at windy's prompting too. seems a bit late to enter just now but entry point will surely surface soon.

so how juicy are hte numbers looking?

AKT, how's the little one?

There are no juicy numbers, it's a turnaround situation with all the perfect qualities of a turnaround. Great market potential, new board, much more focussed core investor with tentacles in various other businesses including oil and gas and clean, debt-free balance sheet with substantial working capital to jump start operations. I hate to hype stocks, but this is another eterna/costain story in the making. The only big problem I see with these guys however is the competition from imported cables. But all they need is a couple of big ticket contracts to make some dough. With all the activity going on in the housing, telecom and power sector, these guys shouldn't have problems grabbing themselves some of those contracts, esp. since they have govt-connected peeps on the board. I like this scenario!

easimoni:
Temmie answered u well on FBN. Re FCMB, he may have (inadvertently ; working the vocab   ) left out the FCMB GDR of 900M shares. I have FCMB as 14.9B (9.5+4.5+0.9) if the 4.5b PO allotment published here a few days ago is correct.
Wendy gave me homework with her NIWICABLE/truebond/Odua gist. Dug up #s courtesy of google. Not looking bad at all with major upside.

Thanks!

Welcome to the niwicable party . . . You're a tad bit late, but welcome all the same  . I'm holding this one until it reaches its full potential

marco74:
windywendy,nice 2 c u are back.i'm stil keeping ci leasing.its done over 100%.do u think its worth it or should i take profit run?!

Ah Marco74, I remember you well  . I still dey wait my xmas turkey oh  . With regard to CI leasing, I personally think the company is over-valued at the current price. But there's a lot of news about new business they're getting and some internal restructuring they're doing that should improve their margins. There's still room for significant growth with those guys. So if you're in for the long haul (like bros Wanaj0 would say), I'll say hold on. Otherwise you can sell and find some other turnaround company. Niwicable is one of those (I mentioned this in an earlier post).

By the way, did you get UPL as I recommended? You must be smiling your way to the bank by now if you did.

Temmie10:
FBN=19.752 billion
FCMB=14.045 billion (may need to dbl-check this one, considering their recent allotment details)
FBN only looks good for the long Haul at current price

Temmie10!!!! how you dey? Long time. Where have you been? Counting all that loot _sorry cash you made from last year I suppose

Thanks for the info. I'm not thinking of entering either one for now, just trying to keep my numbers updated.

gonziiii:
@all,
left FirstAlum yesterday with 150% profit, very impressed with myself, did my first research and it worked out fine, just checked  last years trend and logged in at the right time, could have stayed longer though, because its still making 5% daily but i am scared of losing my profit or having trouble selling as i experienced with my lasaco, gave a sell order and it took 5 days to be executed while the stock was losing rapidly, i'm currently looking at the trendline again to check which stock to log into, it seems they have all left the tarmac, trading in these fundamentaless stocks can be very rewarding in the short run, but u have to be on your toes, can't sleep well at night without seeing the days results and planning your exit, but i'm loving every minute of it, thanks guys for all the help in marginal trading, i see myself being very rich before the end of the year at the rate i'm going,

Good for you! I myself sold today with just a little over 80% profit in less than 3wks. If you had stayed longer, I bet you wouldn't be smiling by now. My broker was telling me on monday that outstanding demand was waning and that's what triggered my sell order yesterday. For short-term trading keeping your finger on the pulse of the market, either thru your broker or anyone else close to the trading floor, is important. Much as I love TA, this system beats all the TA i've ever done as far as short term trades are concerned.  

@easimoni: pls what figures do you have as outstanding shares for FCMB and FBN?

debenzd:
@windywendy,

how u dey? Wel come back o!

I can imagine how your little one feels. I just went through that myself.

Thank you! This too shall pass abi na?

wanaj0:
. . .
I expect Starcomms to be doing a PP but yet to hear any info. Do you know about this?

Cheers

Yep, Starcomms is gearing up for its PP. But it will close the day it opens. Me don already start to pull all my contacts o. If you're interested, I suggest you do the same and get yourself on someone's list long before the PP starts _{same goes for interswitch}

Napolean:
@
Oga Wanaj0 na real guru be that!

I think we are saying the same thing but from 2 opposite angles., IAA is closed. They started that PP in 2006. it wasn't very successful and in 2007 they started raising more funds and the offer kept on "closing" from june 2007 till about 10 days ago. The execs verified this alottment has been concluded.

However, you are in a better situation because you are buying from those who have warehoused the units. They are likely to be brokers to the issue/issuing house so they are aware of what they have to sell. They are likely to have even received their certificates so they are in a position to cross to you.

Same situation with universal. They sold to you from what they had. But those who filled the official form and will wait (how long, who knows) for their certificates will be those who may gnash their teeth. Especially since as a pp, there is no presure on the company to return funds with any interest.

I know you are usually a cautious investor, so I'm just trying to make sure the relatively new investors don't get their fingers burnt. I actually registed on this forum about 35 minutes ago purely to respond to your thread. I consider myself relatively experienced and I am aware of the risks. I am also one of those fortunate to but transcorp during the initial pp at N1 and chams in 2005.

PP can be sweet, was sweeter back them. Now (not being rude) it is becomming an all comers affair with low buy in rates and the monies are being retured.

Oga Wanaj0 whats the difference now between pp and IPO, not much.

Thank guys for your time. You are all doing well and should be very proud of yourselves.

Welcome on board!! We'll be looking forward to your very informative posts from now on!