₦airaland Forum

ty_ademolu:
@ Windywendy

THanks for your update. apparently I failed to get out last week friday after a 23% gain, now my profit is down to 6%.

I guess Ill wait for another CICO opportunity

Do you have any info on resort savings and loans PP.

I have uploaded the PP memorandum incase anyone is interested.

Sorry, I don't know anything about resort savings and loans PP.

bibiking1:
. . . CAPOIL has to correct first before we can say if it was a breakout or a sentimental move!

CAPOIL is one stock that enjoys a lot of sentiment on the floor (afroil is another)! I have only very little info on this company but the gist is that they're into downstream petroleum activities and are expanding rapidly. So even if there's a correction, it'll only last for a short time. I don't normally do second-tier securities, but I got myself a good volume of this one when it took a breather last week at 13.2

yodiyokun:
@windywendy, we miss you oo , you weekend just finish yesterday

Ah my sister how na? Which weekend? Na work I dey work o, my schedule just got crazy busy. Plus it didn't help that my cuddly little munchkin just started teething. So, sleepless nights + long hours at work = no time for nairaland   . From the looks of things, I'll be doing the disappearing act again for sometime after today   .

bibiking1:
@ALL
I have been hearing a lot of talk about Dunlop of recent and decided to take a TA on the stock

Dunlop had been on a down trend since around march last year from somewhere around 9 naira to as low as 2.30k or so
BUT around November and December it formed a double bottom which was a very strong revesrsal trend.
That sharp decline we noticed recently must have been due to some sentimental fundamental, the momentum has stopped falling sharply and has started levelling out
The Stochastic is way below 50, and has begun levelling out also on its fall,
The RSI is still pretty much undecided, and its the key factor for the short termers, what it does in the next few days will determine entry point for both short and medium termers.
for long termers now is a good buy


Dunlop Projection
Short term- Mixed
Medium term-Bullish
Long term-Bullish

Interesting perspective on Dunlop.

If you had entered dunlop for cico only,  you should have got out last Friday or this Monday at the latest. I held that one for only 6days. If you're still in, I'ld say don't sell in a panic. Wait for the  next bull run on the stock and get out as soon as you notice any turbulence, even if it's minor. I personally don't believe the turnaround for this company will begin to see the light of day until later this year or early next. So unless you're investing long term, this one's only for cico for now (my opinion though).

nakedwire:
@Stock gurus, between Goldlink and universal insurance which is better for CICO.

Both! The more important question is: will you see on the floor to buy?

Safive:
@ ALL

Please can somebody tell me what is powering NIWICABLE? It has been gaining for the past few days. I know of a fresh fund injection 1.3B in sept 2007. Is there some other news. Is it good to enter at present prize of 8.7. comments would be appreciated. i hope AKT, yodiyoku and easimoni are still there

You have your answer bolded above. Truebond investment invested in the company and now owns 62%. Those guys have their tentacles in various ventures (i'm referring to Truebond) and are serious minded investors. They're on the Board and will be involved in managing the company. That's good because it'll end the era of wasteful management for a potentially very profitable company. They're projecting PAT of at least 500m for this year. I like the fact that odua is on board too -- guess who's going to be getting the cable contracts for the rural electrification projects for those western states after the 08 budget gets passed  . They're also talking about supply contracts for fibre optic cables for the telecom networks expanding their reach _{not too sure I believe that story, but it can't hurt if it's true}. Another classic turnaround, just like Costain and Eterna a few months back. Hop on board and ask no further questions until you reach your destination. Yours truly is seated right in the owner's corner  

FatherOF2:
I entered Eterna because i wanted to take advantage of opportunities that usually present themselves after BAD NEWS.Enter when everyone has finished
disembarking.I still believe from my calculations that there is at least another N3 to be made from Eterna from yesterday's closing price.It broke through psychological friday on a bullish note.I took out some 25% profit earlier,but my balance is still yielding more.
Right now one top guy on my list last friday is CCNN. I entered it after all panic selling from the importation bad news was complete.Now i'm waiting for institutional investors to come and pick me up.Air Larfage will also have an effect on this guy ccnn.There're many to choose.I concentrate more on the Loosers chart daily for analysis.

Ahhhh, looks like we have some of the same stock recommendations. Well, well well, what can I say . . . same script, different casts . Considering our different approaches to stock picking, this is just another confirmation that more than one road can lead to the same destination

debenzd:
@Windywendy,

I was of the impression that WAPCO will release results this month. LAst year it was released on the 23rd of February.

Yes o, you're right. Historically it's usually last week of Feb or first week of March -- at least based on the info I'm seeing from Wanaj0's all-important spreadsheet . So last week of Feb is more like it then.

Omoba3:
Easi:[/b] Bro you are most welcome. Me sef dey inside wema boat and I bin wan buy from all of una if I fit raise the moni at N9 - 10 a piece  At least my own offer beta pass windywendy e own 

Windywendy: I no spoil show na, but I bin wan bid higher than you sha. You wan tak your offa kill ferson??

Why you wan bid higher na? Easi is ready to deal at N8 and you're offering N9 - N10. Which kind "father christmas" be that one now?   Looks like you have a lot of money to leave on the table   . Can you channel some in my direction, me go collect quick quick  

debenzd:
Windywendy, I can see u are online. Can u help with this. I go appreciate am.

Sure.

NNFM, I'm not sure will give you 20 - 30% in the next 2 to 3 weeks. But like you said, the Dangflour factor might affect it here. So it's a "maybe"

Unity bank will probably give you more than 20% but in a longer time frame. I'm looking at March or thereabout

GNI, thinly traded stock. I don't know nothing about this one. Sorry

7up and Wapco are good fundamentally and can surely give you your desired return, but i'm not sure of the 20 - 30% within your timeframe. I think 6 - 8 wks is more like it (Wapco is releasing results in March/April and there are strong bonus rumors, esp. after last year's "no show". Also consider CCNN, which should be releasing results around the same time.

_{disclosure: I have some CCNN}

If I were in your shoes I'll split the money into two and target good relatively cheap stocks that will be releasing year-end results within the next month or two.

shigidi:
wendy, which stocks you go advise for now, abeg?

Berger paints -- I haven't taken postion here and probably shouldn't even be mentioning it knowing how badly those silent moneybags can spoil one's show   . But for you shig, I'll let it out  
Guinea insurance (CICO, i'm not holding for more than 10 days at the most) -- I know you don't do CICO but this is for those who care  
Livestock (seems people are mopping this one up. I just got in today though). But the company is doing a turn around and it seems to be working. Check out topline growth for the 9mth ended 9/2007 -- impressive. I'm hoping they'll get their costs under control here, so that all that growth can be translated to the bottom line. But these guys have all the qualities of a turnaround and I'm liking it . . .
Dunlop -- this one's a little bit shaky though. I got in on Friday and got some more today. They recently hired a new marketing henchman that's rumored to have the "midas" touch. Perhaps that's what's driving the price. I'll be watching closely and will get out at the first sign of any misstep  

That's it for now I guess.

ty_ademolu:
Well I already purchased it. It was top of my buy list alongside dunlop

Do you think it would be advisable to sell now, buy another stock, then re-enter later

Or just wait it out.

Since they might be listing the PO shares soon and year-end is not until april (releasing in July/August)

I don't think there would be any fantastic rally in the share price in the time being.

thats my opinion. whats urs?

Seriously, I won't say you should sell since you've already purchased. No matter how much this stock falls, I don't see it going below around N18.5, which isn't too far from the current price. Since you're in for the medium term, perhaps you can hold on for now. That's what I think.

2gd:
Dangote flour is now listed. , finally! hope i can get it sha,

Hehehe   . Forget this one for now. I've had my brokers on red alert for the last two weeks to get some for me as soon as it gets listed first week of February. I had done all the necessary phone calls and pep talk, and spent over a half hour on Friday trying to ensure that I get some allocation from their own allocation today (they did that for me wth redstar). I got all my assurances   But alas, today I was told that NO issuing house was given any allocation on the floor because of bla bla bla -- the explanation was too long I stopped paying attention shortly after the beginning of it   .

If you want the stock from the floor, you'll have to wait for the PO buyers to start selling. I'll say "look elsewhere for the next two weeks at least"  

shigidi:
wendy,
i agree with you on fcmb, but i don't think it will bottom out further, they might not list those shares till year end if they like. if the 9-month result is fantastic, ecpect a small rally for now

Are you saying they might not list until August, which is when they should be releasing their year-end result? Don't you think the PO buyers would throw a serious fit if that happens

I agree with you on the 9mth result causing a rally. But usually it's the year end result that does the biggie, so one might as well buy something else now and revisit this one later when the 9-mth pseudo rally is over

ty_ademolu:
@ Windywendy

What do you think about fcmb medium term?

I think FCMB for the medium term is really good. However I'm not too convinced that the stock price has bottomed out yet. They were supposed to list the additional PO shares on 1/25 but it seems like they've only succeeded in listing the GDR shares. I'll say wait till they list the PO shares and see how that plays out. Though I suspect that they're planning to time the 9mth result (which should be released later this month) with the listing of the PO shares to cushion the price drop a bit (my opinion though). Year end is april and results won't be released until about July/August, so you still have time to enter at a reasonable price, even if they release their 9months sometime this month (again, my opinion).

SavvyLanre:
na show off be that one,  Anyway, linear is conservative enough for me,

An alternative is to see how they grew PAT for the equivalent period last year and apply that to the period you're looking to project.

easimoni:
I concur. But it'll take months for the shares to be listed and I don't see a free fall until those shares are listed. The PP will surely add another 3 months to the process and I don't think the PO shares will be listed until all is complete. Now I wish I'd gone in. But long-term, it's going to be rough.

Oh, I didn't even see it from that angle! It's very possible that the PO shares won't be listed until the PP is complete. Hmmm, I better go get myself some of this apple pie   . But wait a minute oh, Mr. J.A Paul mentioned last week that dividends will be increased by 45% this year. Going by last year's 11kobo dividend, that's about 15 or 16kobo dividend. That's not enough to sustain the current price. Also, with the 400% oversubscription they're planning to absorb, do you think these guys will still give a bonus? that will be suicidal   I'm beginning to seriously doubt this bonus story. . . abi will they eventually resort to the easy-button "share reconstruction" afterwards  

RoughCut:
As a defensive measure against Windywendy's hostile bid

Chei! Omoba3 just had to go and spoil my show  

Anyway, there's still the question of when it will come off TS and I can still bid from that angle abi? .

NBA:
Daily Stock Position attached:

Thanks a lot for your dedication to posting these docs. You've been of tremendous help to a lot of us!

@all: Looks like big treat is beginning to run out of steam.

hardMoney:
Below is the text I just received from my broker,   I know the content may affect some of you.  You may need to take quick action as the consent is about to expire.  Please contact your stock broker for the consent letter.

Gurus in the house, How does additional 2,657,835,300 units affect Japaul in the short and long run?
,

Please find attached draft of a Consent Letter regarding Japaul Excess monies - the Offer was over-subsribed by about 400%. As you may be aware, the  Allotment proposal for Japaul Hybrid offer has been approved by SEC and full allotment was granted to only applicants within the range of  1,000 - 50,000 units, while those that applied for units from 50,001 and above will be given partial allotment. However the joint Lead Issuing Houses have structured an arrangement to ensure that applicants that partial allotees get full allotment via a supplementary private placement and which exercise has already been approved by SEC.
So should you prefer not to receive return money payments, kindly execute and return to us  the attached Consent letter so that you can benefit from this opportunity.

Please ensure that your Consent Letter gets to us on or before Tuesday Feb.5th, 2008, as no letters will be treated after this date.

Sure looks like this Paul Jegede guy wants to keep all the subscription money -- anyway they need all the funds they can get.

Onto how the additional listing will affect the stock:

Shortterm, I foresee the price falling as PO people rush to sell. Both rights and PO were offered at a significant discount (below N5 if I remember correctly) and so even N10 will represent a good return for most -- unless of course the bulk of the shares were taken up by institutional investors and/or long-termers _{which is highly unlikely}   The fact that there's going to be full allotment (considering both PO and proposed PP) will most likely exacerbate the free fall in the short term

Long term, depends on how much the company can grow profits. If significant growth potential exists, which I strongly believe is the case with these guys given that the local content participation is expected to increase to about 70% or thereabout in the very near future (next year, I think), then this company will be a good shot  . Infact I won't be surprised if they end up getting acquired.

So my advise would be: wait for the PO and PP sellers to run out of steam and then take position once you notice that the price has stablized somewhat. Then you're in for a medium term wait (at least until the next set of results start being released).

Abi how una see am?

RoughCut:
Yeah you again? Na wa o.

I remember saying something about this company last year it is a classic example of a company in 'turn-around' and set for growth. They have have just spent N5B or is it N8B? to complete their radial tyre plant_{whatever that means} and they completed PO in Jan '07 where they raised N5.5B infact the offer was oversunscribed. The bulk of the receipts went on this project and repaying a very large chunk of the debts.They had a lot of problems with remittance of the PO funds but i think they finally got it now and they acquired Pamol in calabar the biggest rubber plantation in Nigeria so no issues with sourcing raw materials so i believe its set for big big things

Up till now they have been making huge losses over the years so i suppose they are due a turn-around sooner or later but it seems to have caught me _pants trousers down

But as usual the wind don blow comot all the available shares for ground

Ah, you're back. I see you chickened out on my WEMA offer . The Wema story is getting scarier _sorry juicier, so shall we re-open the negotiation ??

Omoba3:
Anyone looking at Unity bank? They look like a good candidate for buying right now, but what do our gurus think?

Purely CICO! I've taken position already and will be taking more this week. There are rumors of an impending PO and infact, the linchpins at the helm have started touting the PO, which according to them should happen this quarter. I believe one can make 50% on this one before the quarter runs out (of course that depends on your entry price -- i've been accumulating below 8.7, looking to exit around 14. If it gets there fine, otherwise I'll be exiting sooner   ). PURELY SPECULATIVE BUY as Pumping777 don talk o! From both a fundamental and technical standpoint, I don't like the stock.

richieade:
The problem is this Belichick guy too do yanga like he is the best tin since slice bread

Anyway na good coach sha
Never mind there is always next year

Yep! there's always next year   And that so-called coach is sure going to be having his contract reviewed   _{yeah right, like I have the power to do anything}  

pumice:
@ gonziiii

Nice one with dunlop.

From a technical standpoint alone, at this time I would go with dunlop rather than neimeth. It seems to be heading in the right direction for a buy but the only thing I am afraid of is the =N=5 resistance point. It may power through or stall around there, as I highlighted in the chart there seems to be some serious buying in going on. Either way I'd rather be in than out. With neimeth it just seems I would be arriving at the party late.

Like I said this just from my own technical opinion, I'll leave the fundamentals to the gurus. The floor is still open to other suggestions. By now it's obvious I like pictures so here's one more.

My opinion though is that Dunlop WILL power through that so-called N5 resistance point. Have you been watching the trend on this stock? Absolute fantastic for CICO.

My broker was telling me that before he could finish completing my order last Friday, some greedy Greg set of moneybags came and placed some serious demand on the floor and sent the price up to the max. Anyway, I was able to get a sizable chunk   . I don't see that demand being satisfied fully before the week runs out. So watch that stock as it powers through the N5 point (my opinion though)  

easimoni:
Good morning Wendy!

richieade:
As for the superbowl I knew Gaints will win b'cus Defense always beat Offence (good for cheating Belichick)

Even you too??

Chei,

aktopgun:
@ easi

wassup man. make windy no catch u with this your signature o! me i no go settle fight.

£50 on easi to win sha!       (if i were a betting man).

admittedly, it was an upset to say the last. just goes to show, it aint over till the fat lady sings!

No mind easimoni o. Abeg help me warn am o, make e take time well well. Otherwise I'll send some strong winds to unsettle some things in his Houston neighborhood  

NBA:
GO GIANTS!!!!

Ah, et tu?? .

easimoni:
WENDY WENDY WENDY! Sorry O! Time to eat crow. Go Giants!

easimoni:
5'2" (Wendy) vs 6'1" (Me) = Tom Brady vs NY Giants Defense

Wendy, when you read this, you know you are my "personal person", just can't resist needling you.

Chei, mo gbe ooo

Anyway

_{**puts both hands on head and runs away**}

*deleted*

easimoni:
You no go take laugh kill me o!   Anyway, we must see what Mr Aboh has up his sleeve. I'm sitting it out. NO DEAL! Sorry Howie "obsessive-compulsive, can't-shake-hands, germophobe" Mandel.  

Ok o, at least I tried. Will be re-opening the negotiation later  . But chei, see as you come take grammar scatter Howie _{but the guy sef get as e be . . .}

Have a good weekend everyone.  I'm off.

yodiyokun:
@windywendy,

stockmarketnigeria is up and running - just to let you know

Ok thanks.