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The Scramble For Nigeria's Power Sector- Opportunities And Challenges - Politics - Nairaland

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The Scramble For Nigeria's Power Sector- Opportunities And Challenges by taharqa: 10:17pm On Aug 30, 2012
[b]In 2001, Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Vodacom, Alan Knott-Craig, infamously said-when GSM licences were being auctioned in Nigeria- that he would not bid because he did not like doing business with those who are “smarter than we are” - a veiled reference to the stereotypical view of Nigerians as scammers.

Barely four years later in 2005 Knott-Craig was singing a different tune, when he said in an interview that “losing the investment opportunity in Nigeria was a real disappointment for us as a management team.”

Rival MTN had no such qualms, and today it is Nigeria’s leading operator with 43 million subscribers as at June 2012 and making $2.5 billion in core profit in 2010 and again in 2011.

The lesson learnt (by prospective investors) from Vodacom’s bad judgment of not investing in Nigeria is a reason for the current scramble for a piece of Nigeria’s power sector.

In spite of the difficult operating environment and numerous risks, investors clearly see the upside for gain in Nigeria’s power sector, which has the potential to dwarf the revenues made in the telecommunication sector.

Nigeria is currently the largest telecoms market in Africa.

The country’s four GSM operators MTN, Globacom, Airtel and Etisalat had a combined subscriber base of 90.3 million at the end of 2011.

With Average Revenues per User (ARPU) per month in Nigeria, hovering in the $10 range, it means the four operators had revenues of about $10.8 billion (N1.7 trillion) in 2011.

Telecoms contribution to Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), has increased from a negligible 0.5 percent in 2001 to 3.6 percent by 2009, according to data from the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), website.

Analysts say the telecoms success has raised hopes for Nigeria’s moribund power sector, if the government manages to successfully privatise it.

“Nigeria has often surprised on the upside, and the success in telecoms is a classic example. People are looking at power in the same way,” said Fola Fagbule, Vice President of Origination and Coverage at Africa Finance Corporation (AFC), a Lagos based investment bank.

Nigeria, with a population of 160 million people, is estimated to need about 40,000 Mega Watts (MW) of electricity over the next decade, but currently has less than 6,000 mega watts (MW) of available capacity, leading to costly blackouts that have kept the Nigerian economy from growing at its full potential for decades.

Nigeria needs $10 billion a year, or up to $100 billion of new capital investments over the next ten years to meet its power sector needs and it is hoped that privatisation will greatly improve service and output, with the government targeting 18,000 MW output by 2016.

The opportunity in the sector is what is leading to a scramble by local and international investors for a piece of Nigeria’s power assets.

Nigeria is working to sell off 11 distribution and six generation companies, as part of plans to privatise the power sector.

The Bureau of Public Enterprises (BPE) on Tuesday, July 31, 2012 received technical and financial proposals from 54 potential investors interested in the privatisation exercise of Nigeria’s electricity distribution companies.

Oando Gas and Power, Honeywell, and Gumco were among local and international firms to submit bids for the acquisition of the eleven electricity distribution companies scattered across the country.

Preferred bidders for the 17 successor companies are due to be announced on October 23, the BPE has said.

“Anybody who doesn’t invest in Nigeria has only himself to blame, going forward, if he misses out,” said Aliko Dangote (Africa’s richest man) in an interview last month.

“I don’t really know of any place where you can make as much money as you make in Nigeria.”[/b]
http://www.businessdayonline.com/NG/index.php/news/76-hot-topic/43631-the-scramble-for-nigerias-power-sector


Lets make sure that this works plz
Re: The Scramble For Nigeria's Power Sector- Opportunities And Challenges by taharqa: 10:29pm On Aug 30, 2012
This is part of a comment I made last month on the Privatiztion process and my plea that we ought to closely watch the process and keep every person involved on their toes cos belief me, there are people who would do anything to derail this process that started about 2 years ago from concluding within the next 2 months:

...The really significant thing for me though is that the Power Reform Process seem to been going according to plan this time around and it seem very likely now that we would see the end of the Privatization Process before the end of October. Below is a sketch of some of the steps already taken 1. The passage of d Power Reform Bill some years ago(which laid the legal framework for the actors in the Power Sector) 2. The unbundling of PHCN into 18 holding companies last year. 3. The start of d new investment-leaning Tariff Structure this July(This honestly was the first REAL sign for me that the government was now serious in privatizing the sector). 4. The almost complete conclusion of the termination process of the current 'PHCN' workers prior to their selective re-absorption by the proposed new owners( though there seem to be some problems with the workers' Pensions at the moment). 5. The take-over of the Transmission Company by a well-known international company(MHI) so as to reorganized and manage it before handing it back to the govt(PS: Probably so that there will be less saboteurs in the system going forward, the minister insisted that MHI bring 8 senior staff who will take over the management of the company while current Nigerian management staff act as their assistants for the 3-year period) 6. The close of the submission of d bidding process for sale of d 17 Generation holding companies two weeks ago. 7. And just yesterday, the close of the submission of bids for the Distribution companies, again on schedule.

Just yesterday the govt insisted that the time-line WILL be followed(as they seem to have been doing) and have re-started the important dates again:

"Briefing newsmen at the end of the NCP meeting on Monday, the Director General for Bureau for Public Enterprises (BPE), Ms Bolanle Onagorowa, said that the July 31 deadline for the submission of the bids for the Distribution Company of the PHCN remained sacrosanct as the Council vowed to strictly adhere to its timeline on the exercise...BPE boss also stated that the Council would meet on August 24 to reveal the bidders that passed the technical evaluation for the Generation companies’ bidders. She also disclosed that the Council would meet on September 11 to reveal the list of bidders that passed technical evaluation for the Distribution Companies.
Onagoruwa also stated that the financial bids opening for the Generation companies will be on September 25, while financial bid opening for the Distribution companies will be on October, 8. She also added that the Council would give final approval for the commercial bids for Distribution Companies on October, 22.
SOURCE: http://www.worldstagegroup.com/worldstagenew/index.php?active=news&newscid=5519&catid=26

One can imagine what will happen if this process concludes and Power generation and Distribution is privatized. It is also great that States have finally been granted approvals to distribute the Power it generates directly to its citizens- this is not just great news for states like Rivers, Bayelsa and Akwa Ibom but will hopefully also create some sought of competition amongst other states who would then be 'blackmailed' into generating Power for their own people(either solely or more likely in conjunction with Private Investors).

IT IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT THAT THIS PROCESS IS SEEN TO ITS LOGICAL CONCLUSION AS THIS MAY BE THE MOST IMPORTANT PROCESS THE NIGERIAN GOVERNMENT HAVE EVER TAKEN , AND IT IS HAPPENING BEFORE OUR VERY EYES. We should not forget these dates(August24, September 11, September 25, October 8, October 22) and should insist that they are followed through please. This is where we need the Critics the most.

PLEASE SHARE. Thanks


In the last 2 years,the govt team(lead by Barth Nnaji of course) has actually done all the work needed to liberalize the Power Market(except perhaps concluding Agreements with workers and of course announcing the winners)- Constitution of NERC Board and subsequently addressing concerns about the licensing regime for power generation and power distribution companies; Formation of the Bulk Trader; Formation of Gas Aggregator; Provision of Guarantees for the the proposed companies; Formulation of a new Investment-savvy Tariff Structure; Unbudling of PHCN to its daughter companies; Contracting out the management of the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN); Operationalising the Nigerian Electricity Liability Management Company (NELMCO) etc. Most of the hard work has already been done, what is needed now is a conclusion of the process.

Please note those dates again(August24, September 11, September 25, October 8, October 22)- already the August 24 date was kept.Looking forward to Sept 11 and others. We MUST all ensure that this process concludes on schedule especially now that the man that was overseeing the process has resigned(or is it sacked?). Perhaps the most important INFRASTRUCTURAL Undertaking of this country- one which which is required to take our economy to the top of the world's is just within view. Lets make sure that this time around we get it right.

MAY GOD BLESS NIGERIA
Re: The Scramble For Nigeria's Power Sector- Opportunities And Challenges by esere826: 6:38am On Aug 31, 2012
@taharqa
You said: "let's make sure this works plz"

Just curious, why do you sound so concerned?

Your post sounds more like you're coming more from an investors perspective.
Re: The Scramble For Nigeria's Power Sector- Opportunities And Challenges by taharqa: 10:47am On Aug 31, 2012
esere826: @taharqa
You said: "let's make sure this works plz"

Just curious, why do you sound so concerned?

Your post sounds more like you're coming more from an investors perspective.
Investors perspective ke?guy am just a youth in my 20's..why do I care much? ehmm, wot a questn! Well I care much cos am 9jerian nd cos dis is d only way dat 9ja can generate enough power in d tens of thousands of MWs necessary to tk us to d top of d world's economy. I dont criticize stupidly, I try to understand d situatn and choose my fight. There are oda tins i hv strongly advocatd we shld focus on on dis forum: passage of PIB, appointment of Special judges 4 corruptn and terroism cases, d release of d White Paper on d Oronsaye Panel on lean govt, monitoring d completn of railways and infact oda projects, formulatn of a new cost effective Contract Framework etc. Instead of us to be shouting and throwing banters at ourselves we shld focus on d important tins nd mk it happen
Re: The Scramble For Nigeria's Power Sector- Opportunities And Challenges by taharqa: 10:47am On Aug 31, 2012
esere826: @taharqa
You said: "let's make sure this works plz"

Just curious, why do you sound so concerned?

Your post sounds more like you're coming more from an investors perspective.
Re: The Scramble For Nigeria's Power Sector- Opportunities And Challenges by FrankC3: 11:51am On Aug 31, 2012
@taharqa

Well done, bro. I think you've got a good head on your shoulders. It is exciting to know that there are still youths who devote as much energy that others devote to 'Up Chelse/Up Man-u' to REAL ISSUES. Your positions seem to have been thoroughly researched and carefully taken, with commitment to just one thing- Nigeria...a country that has probably offered your generation so little. Good job!!
Re: The Scramble For Nigeria's Power Sector- Opportunities And Challenges by Callotti: 12:20pm On Aug 31, 2012
“Anybody who doesn’t invest in Nigeria has only himself to blame, going forward, if he misses out,” said Aliko Dangote (Africa’s richest man) in an interview last month.

“I don’t really know of any place where you can make as much money as you make in Nigeria.”

We don here sir.
Count me out! cheesy
Re: The Scramble For Nigeria's Power Sector- Opportunities And Challenges by ijigbamigb(m): 2:02pm On Aug 31, 2012
taharqa: Investors perspective ke?guy am just a youth in 20's..why do I care much?ehmm, wot a questn! Well care much cos am 9jerian nd cos dis is d only way dat 9ja can generate enough power in d tens of thousands of MWs necessary to tk us to d top of d world's economy. I dont criticize stupidly, I try to understand situatn and choose my fight. There are oda tins i hv strongly advocatd we shld focus on on dis forum: passage of PIB, appointment of Special judges 4 corruptn and terroism cases, d release of d White Paper on d Oronsaye Panel on lean govt, monitoring d completn of railways and infact oda project, formulatn of a new cost effective Contract Framework etc. Instead of us to be shouting and throwing banters at ourselves we shld focus on d important tins nd mk it happen

3 Hearty Cheers to you taharqa. It is good to know that we still have youths that believes in the success of the Nigerian Project. Though am not a fan of the PDP but sincerely I can tell that for the first time in many years, we have a govt that is ready to pursue a total transformation of our country's power sector. We only need to let them know that we are watching.
Re: The Scramble For Nigeria's Power Sector- Opportunities And Challenges by warrior01: 2:43pm On Aug 31, 2012
taharqa: Investors perspective ke?guy am just a youth in 20's..why do I care much?ehmm, wot a questn! Well care much cos am 9jerian nd cos dis is d only way dat 9ja can generate enough power in d tens of thousands of MWs necessary to tk us to d top of d world's economy. I dont criticize stupidly, I try to understand situatn and choose my fight. There are oda tins i hv strongly advocatd we shld focus on on dis forum: passage of PIB, appointment of Special judges 4 corruptn and terroism cases, d release of d White Paper on d Oronsaye Panel on lean govt, monitoring d completn of railways and infact oda project, formulatn of a new cost effective Contract Framework etc. Instead of us to be shouting and throwing banters at ourselves we shld focus on d important tins nd mk it happen
I'm so proud of you; tis been a while i read from a real patriot on nairaland. Keep it up

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