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The Scandal Of Census Figures - Politics - Nairaland

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The Scandal Of Census Figures by HNosegbe(m): 4:50pm On Oct 29, 2012
Ladies and gentlemen, below is a piece written by an anonymous author in an edition of the Guardian. It makes for an interesting and revealing read. Mods, this should be on the front page.

A COUPLE of years ago, I was trying to look for a link between population figures in Nigeria and the monthly allocations from the Federation Account to the states and our local councils. At the time I had just discovered the Federal Ministry of Finance’s website which published the monthly breakdowns in fairly reasonable detail albeit a few months late.

The National Population Commission also had the 2006 census figures on its website broken down to local council level as well as the 1991 census figures broken down to state level. I thought I would find something of a correlation between the sharing of money and population figures fairly easily but I quickly abandoned this task, as it was a nightmare to understand the formula behind the allocations. There are too many different components to the sharing and the only one that is fairly easy to understand is the 13 per cent derivation formula; all of the rest like population, education and even ecology were all over the place. So I moved on.

But the trouble was it had taken me three solid days to extract the census data from the NPC website because the information was in downloadable PDFs that were also ‘security locked’ i.e. I couldn’t copy the data to an excel spreadsheet to make it easier to manipulate. The Internet came to my rescue as I found software to unlock the PDFs and get the data onto a spreadsheet.

Yet again, the data didn’t tell me anything particularly useful. To be clear, there is a link between population and revenue allocation in Nigeria (which explains why our census figures are so contentious) but without some help from people who know, it is hard to work it out. After a few days of staring at the data in frustration, I was speaking to a friend and discussing Nigeria in general when I managed to steer the conversation to census figures. I told him how I had managed to extract the information and how I couldn’t find what I was looking for. He laughed and said ‘every census in Nigeria follows the formula of the one in 1963. The total figure might be correct, but the allocation of numbers follows that formula’. He said it with that Nigerian air of ‘knowingness’ where people are convinced of what they are saying even though they haven’t looked at the data.

So I went back home and tried to test his conspiracy theory. The slight wrinkle in the data was that in 1991, Nigeria had 31 states and by 2006 an additional five states (Nasarawa, Bayelsa, Ekiti, Ebonyi, and Zamfara) had been created. To solve this problem and make sure I was comparing like with like, I simply added the numbers of the five new states to the states from where they had been carved out. So Nasarawa numbers went back into Plateau, Bayelsa went back into Rivers, Ekiti went into Ondo, Ebonyi went back into Enugu (this was a bit tricky as a small part of Ebonyi was created from Abia state but it’s not statistically relevant to affect the comparison here) and finally Zamfara went back into Sokoto.

What I found caused me to rub my eyes in disbelief. My friend was right; the figures followed a formula. There wasn’t even an attempt to hide the formula – it looks as if someone just put a formula in an excel spreadsheet and came up with the numbers.

In 1991, Lagos had a population of 5,725,116 out of a total of 88,992,220 for a percentage share of six per cent. By 2006, Lagos had 9,113,605 out of a total of 140,431,790, again for a percentage of six per cent.

Kano in 1991 had a population of 5,810,470 representing seven per cent of the total. By 2006 there were 9,401,288 people in Kano, again representing 7 per cent of the total. Every single state followed this pattern.

How about the combined states? In 1991 Ondo had a population of 3,785,338 representing four per cent of the total. By 2006 Ondo had 3,460,877 people while Ekiti (carved out in 1996) had 2,398,957 people. Adding these two states together gives a total of 5,859,834 which again comes back to four per cent of the total. This is the same for Rivers – five per cent in 1991 and Bayelsa + Rivers also 5 per cent in 2006.

Pick a random state and the results are the same. Benue had a population of 2,753,077 in 1991 representing 3 per cent of the total and then 4,253,641 in 2006, also three per cent of the total. Akwa Ibom was 2,409,613 in 1991; three per cent of the total and 3,902,051 in 2006, again three per cent of the total. You are getting bored by now so I will stop. I am sure you get the gist. Again I stress – these percentages are exactly the same from 1991 to 2006. The only difference is the FCT Abuja which obviously did not exist in 1991 but had a population of 1,406,239 in 2006 for exactly one per cent of the share of the total. This is effectively a rounding error in the total and so it does not affect the ‘formula’.


The census figures are now six years old and I did shout myself hoarse at the time about what is a truly scandalous set of figures. I do not know how it is possible to have census figures that grow exactly the same over 15 years. How does Lagos for instance continue to maintain its share of the population when the place is a magnet for people migrating from other parts of the country? We can also conclude that, for the numbers to have been so shamelessly and crudely fudged in this manner, there must be a lot riding on them when it comes to the allocation of scarce resources.

I spoke to some people about this afterwards and they said it is very likely the overall figure of 140,431,790 for 2006 was a very good estimate of the real population of Nigeria given that the EU was heavily involved in the counting and collating process and there was a lot of international help given to Nigeria to conduct the census. But it does seem as if, as soon as the foreigners left, we simply went back to our old ways and allocated the numbers as we have always done.

How do you build a nation on a lie such as this? What exactly is true about Nigeria? Because people who will lie about census figures in this manner will probably lie about unemployment figures and budget spending.

It is never too late to revisit this matter because in a few short years, Nigeria will once again embark on another census exercise. The least we can do is ensure that such a scandal like this is not repeated. This does not mean the 2006 figures should not be subject to a full inquiry; we are a democracy (at least in theory) so whether or not the numbers are six years old, they remain in play for serious debate.

For once we should try to tell the truth to ourselves as a nation.

Source

14 Likes

Re: The Scandal Of Census Figures by Afam4eva(m): 4:58pm On Oct 29, 2012
lol grin NIgeria is one comedy central....it seems whenever a new state is carved out from a state. The old state still retains the same population while the new state steals at least 1.5 million from another country to add to theirs. Naija i hail thee.

6 Likes

Re: The Scandal Of Census Figures by Gbawe: 5:08pm On Oct 29, 2012
The census figures are now six years old and I did shout myself hoarse at the time about what is a truly scandalous set of figures. I do not know how it is possible to have census figures that grow exactly the same over 15 years. How does Lagos for instance continue to maintain its share of the population when the place is a magnet for people migrating from other parts of the country? We can also conclude that, for the numbers to have been so shamelessly and crudely fudged in this manner, there must be a lot riding on them when it comes to the allocation of scarce resources.

I spoke to some people about this afterwards and they said it is very likely the overall figure of 140,431,790 for 2006 was a very good estimate of the real population of Nigeria given that the EU was heavily involved in the counting and collating process and there was a lot of international help given to Nigeria to conduct the census. But it does seem as if, as soon as the foreigners left, we simply went back to our old ways and allocated the numbers as we have always done.

How do you build a nation on a lie such as this? What exactly is true about Nigeria? Because people who will lie about census figures in this manner will probably lie about unemployment figures and budget spending.

Precisely the point I was making on the thread below. The patent wickedness of Nigerian leaders always manifests into callous actions that regresses all our lives.


http://www.nairaland.com/1082592/beautiful-states-hungry-ugly-people

1 Like

Re: The Scandal Of Census Figures by HNosegbe(m): 5:11pm On Oct 29, 2012
Men... "Shocking" doesn't even begin to describe this. I intend to carry out my own study, and if this turns out to be true.... lipsrsealed
Re: The Scandal Of Census Figures by Gbawe: 5:15pm On Oct 29, 2012
HNosegbe: Men... "Shocking" doesn't even begin to describe this. I intend to carry out my own study, and if this turns out to be true.... lipsrsealed

My brother, Nigeria is the land of leadership wickedness. The 2006 census was an exercise in wickedness and a deliberate effort to disenfranchise the South and the callous and vengeful OBJ went along with it and delivered the 'seal of approval' to please the allocation-centered greed of the patrons who made him 'king'. Dig thoroughly and what you will discover will be very unpleasant.
Re: The Scandal Of Census Figures by ilugunboy(m): 5:16pm On Oct 29, 2012
Nigeria is one huge lie...!!
Re: The Scandal Of Census Figures by Kslib(m): 5:24pm On Oct 29, 2012
Wonderful!! Well,this is Nigeria for you. The only country that can clone real humans when a new state is formed..
The only country that allows criminals to rule normal people.. I know say many countries get criminal leaders,but our own leaders criminality don reach to make devil know say before he became a criminal,Nigerian leaders have won several awards for criminality,be it oscar award,grammy award,headies award,most valuable criminal,oldest criminal,up-coming criminal,revelation of the year criminal,best act criminal,innocent looking but dangerously dangerous criminal of the year award and many more..
News reaching me suggests that when the devil read,heard and analysed Nigerian leaders,and their dubious/carefully engineered ways on fooling the masses,he was short of words,and all he had to say was "I HAVE NEVER BEEN SINCERE DESPITE ALL MY JOURNEYS ACROSS THE WORLD,BUT SINCERELY SPEAKING,WHAT NIGERIAN LEADERS ARE DOING IS NOT FAIR..I EVEN GATHERED THAT HE SCREAMED "HABA"...

5 Likes

Re: The Scandal Of Census Figures by Standing5(m): 7:12pm On Oct 29, 2012
Everyday, we see buses coming in from the east to Lagos and filled to the brim with human being while they return relatively empty. yet the percentage of Lagos state population isn't growing. We all know those behind it. Combine OP's piece with the Federal Character Principle and you have one of the world's biggest scam.

5 Likes

Re: The Scandal Of Census Figures by Standing5(m): 7:25pm On Oct 29, 2012
Also in the most southern Nigeria cities one can easily notice the rise in no. of new generation of northerners now migrating there. You will find them trading and driving okadas, yet there is no guaranty that these movements will reflect in the next census exercise. don't also forget the Boko Haram effect.

1 Like

Re: The Scandal Of Census Figures by ektbear: 7:33pm On Oct 29, 2012
Interesting.
Re: The Scandal Of Census Figures by Gbawe: 7:48pm On Oct 29, 2012
Standing5: Everyday, we see buses coming in from the east to Lagos and filled to the brim with human being while they return relatively empty. yet the percentage of Lagos state population isn't growing. We all know those behind it. Combine OP's piece with the Federal Character Principle and you have one of the world's biggest scam.

Indeed. I followed the whole census thing fastidiously in 2006. The expectation was high that OBJ would supervise a truthful head-count of Nigerians. Alas, the man could only disappoint and , as always, his actions of gross cheating exemplified a life spent disenfranchising many through unfair, desperate and "do-or-die" antics. If the man is not conducting rigged elections he is supervising bogus population census. The common theme with OBJ's actions was the concept of never letting justice, equity or the 'will of the people' carry the day.

Of course it was preposterous , as an example, for anyone to claim Lagos was less populated than Kano. It was a dastardly plan, coarse and brazen in execution, to perpetuate the unfairness and injustice Nigeria is built on.

4 Likes

Re: The Scandal Of Census Figures by HNosegbe(m): 8:04pm On Oct 29, 2012
I had always known that the census figures of 2006 were rigged; what is so shocking is that the figures handed to us were the EXACT percentage as those of the 1991 census, not for one, or two, or even ten states- but ALL?

I'm stupefied.
Re: The Scandal Of Census Figures by dayokanu(m): 8:05pm On Oct 29, 2012
OP cross check your census figures from 1991

Cos I remember in 1991, Lagos was said to be slightly more than Kano, Now in 2006 they said kano was more

So the figures quoted in the original post cant be correct as it had it that Kano was more than Lagos both in 1991 and 2006

I didnt factcheck others

1 Like

Re: The Scandal Of Census Figures by HNosegbe(m): 8:34pm On Oct 29, 2012
@ Dayokanu I get your point. I have even tried to verify for myself the accurate 1991 population census figures, and I'm getting conflicting results. Check out the following links:

Site 1. http://www.onlinenigeria.com/population/?blurb=550 (Online Nigeria.com, which corroborates the author's story).

Site 2. http://www.nigerianmuse.com/projects/ElectoralReformProject/?u=Nigeria_Census_1991.html (Nigerian Muse.com, which gives a different set of figures).

For instance, while site 1 gives Lagos' population as 5,725,116 (same as that of the author), site 2 gives 5,685,785 for the SAME 1991 census. The figures for Kano are thus: Site 1- 5,810,470 (same as the author) and site 2- 5,632,040.

It's interesting to note that site 1 (which agrees with the author's figures) names the "Federal Republic of Nigeria" as its source, while site 2 (the one with different figures) doesn't give a source.

I'm perplexed.
Re: The Scandal Of Census Figures by sheyguy: 8:43pm On Oct 29, 2012
Gbawe:

Indeed. I followed the whole census thing fastidiously in 2006. The expectation was high that OBJ would supervise a truthful head-count of Nigerians. Alas, the man could only disappoint and , as always, his actions of gross cheating exemplified a life spent disenfranchising many through unfair, desperate and "do-or-die" antics. If the man is not conducting rigged elections he is supervising bogus population census. The common theme with OBJ's actions was the concept of never letting justice, equity or the 'will of the people' carry the day.

Of course it was preposterous , as an example, for anyone to claim Lagos was less populated than Kano. It was a dastardly plan, coarse and brazen in execution, to perpetuate the unfairness and injustice Nigeria is built on.
I followed it also and was amazed at how the whole scam population ratio was maintained under OBJ's watch. That singular act alone represents one of his greatest betrayal of the the average southerner.

1 Like

Re: The Scandal Of Census Figures by gramci: 8:44pm On Oct 29, 2012
Northerner handiwork

2 Likes

Re: The Scandal Of Census Figures by AdaNri1(f): 8:52pm On Oct 29, 2012
lipsrsealed

over to OBJ and the head of NPC
Re: The Scandal Of Census Figures by olumide81(m): 9:01pm On Oct 29, 2012
waitin for dat man who has a contrary opinion
Re: The Scandal Of Census Figures by Abagworo(m): 9:03pm On Oct 29, 2012
The truth is that Nigeria's population is somewhere between 90 to 100 million with 10% living in Lagos alone. Kano is somewhere between 5 to 7million and the 2nd while Oyo and Kaduna comes next and then Rivers and Anambra. Those are the most populous States in Nigeria. Nigeria's inaccurate population census is not the product of Nigerian government but of the powers that control the UN and the aim is to use us as a looting instrument. I've been involved somehow in a UN organized program where people were asked to inflate the number of HIV figures to be a bit above estimate while the actual recorded number is way below. I asked why they deliberately want to increase our HIV figure and the answer was they wanted more funds.

A credible census in Nigeria could shake the world.

1 Like

Re: The Scandal Of Census Figures by Gbawe: 9:04pm On Oct 29, 2012
sheyguy:
I followed it also and was amazed at how the whole scam population ratio was maintained under OBJ's watch. That singular act alone represents one of his greatest betrayal of the the average southerner.

Indeed. Many only expected a truthful and 'correctional' head count of Nigerians from OBJ. We did not want favouritism in the South. We just wanted sincere actions that begin to make Nigeria a more equitable nation. Instead, OBJ embraced injustice and parochial servitude as he has done many times when in a position to truly deliver inspired leadership that may put Nigeria on the path of greatness.

Tragic really.

2 Likes

Re: The Scandal Of Census Figures by engineerd(m): 9:06pm On Oct 29, 2012
ONE WORD.....REVOLUTION!!!! THE ONE AND ONLY WAY TO FREEDOM. NIGERIANS HAVE BEEN ENSLAVED FOR WAY TOO LONG.
Re: The Scandal Of Census Figures by greaterlove(m): 9:13pm On Oct 29, 2012
Kslib: Wonderful!! Well,this is Nigeria for you. The only country that can clone real humans when a new state is formed..
The only country that allows criminals to rule normal people.. I know say many countries get criminal leaders,but our own leaders criminality don reach to make devil know say before he became a criminal,Nigerian leaders have won several awards for criminality,be it oscar award,grammy award,headies award,most valuable criminal,oldest criminal,up-coming criminal,revelation of the year criminal,best act criminal,innocent looking but dangerously dangerous criminal of the year award and many more..
News reaching me suggests that when the devil read,heard and analysed Nigerian leaders,and their dubious/carefully engineered ways on fooling the masses,he was short of words,and all he had to say was "I HAVE NEVER BEEN SINCERE DESPITE ALL MY JOURNEYS ACROSS THE WORLD,BUT SINCERELY SPEAKING,WHAT NIGERIAN LEADERS ARE DOING IS NOT FAIR..I EVEN GATHERED THAT HE SCREAMED "HABA"...
No! The devil did not scream haba! He screamed 'blood of Jesus save me'

1 Like

Re: The Scandal Of Census Figures by topelenege(f): 9:15pm On Oct 29, 2012
Don't you just love investigative journalism. When I feel great using my money to buy the newspaper. Guys like this should be encouraged.

1 Like

Re: The Scandal Of Census Figures by dayokanu(m): 9:15pm On Oct 29, 2012
HNosegbe: @ Dayokanu I get your point. I have even tried to verify for myself the accurate 1991 population census figures, and I'm getting conflicting results. Check out the following links:

Site 1. http://www.onlinenigeria.com/population/?blurb=550 (Online Nigeria.com, which corroborates the author's story).

Site 2. http://www.nigerianmuse.com/projects/ElectoralReformProject/?u=Nigeria_Census_1991.html (Nigerian Muse.com, which gives a different set of figures).

For instance, while site 1 gives Lagos' population as 5,725,116 (same as that of the author), site 2 gives 5,685,785 for the SAME 1991 census. The figures for Kano are thus: Site 1- 5,810,470 (same as the author) and site 2- 5,632,040.

It's interesting to note that site 1 (which agrees with the author's figures) names the "Federal Republic of Nigeria" as its source, while site 2 (the one with different figures) doesn't give a source.

I'm perplexed.

The site 2 figures are more accurate because I am certain that in 1991 Lagos had a slight edge over Kano in terms of population
Re: The Scandal Of Census Figures by 2million1(m): 9:19pm On Oct 29, 2012
I don't stress myself this much any longer, because the more u dig dip, the more u become confuse n they's nothing u can do about it. May God help Nigeria b4 it becomes Greece.
Re: The Scandal Of Census Figures by HNosegbe(m): 9:20pm On Oct 29, 2012
dayokanu:

The site 2 figures are more accurate because I am certain that in 1991 Lagos had a slight edge over Kano in terms of population

undecided undecided
Re: The Scandal Of Census Figures by saxywale(m): 9:33pm On Oct 29, 2012
engineerd: ONE WORD.....REVOLUTION!!!! THE ONE AND ONLY WAY TO FREEDOM. NIGERIANS HAVE BEEN ENSLAVED FOR WAY TOO LONG.
I prefer Nigeria splitting peacefully instead of revolution. The country as a whole can't get any thing right..All agencies, private organizations and ministries are full of sh*t and deceit. I won't be suprised if a theater arts graduate is the DG of NPC.
Re: The Scandal Of Census Figures by odave(m): 9:33pm On Oct 29, 2012
;DNow I got the reason why obj is against creation of more local government in lagos state...chai! Bad belle grin
Re: The Scandal Of Census Figures by adewaleafolabi(m): 9:34pm On Oct 29, 2012
topelenege: Don't you just love investigative journalism. When I feel great using my money to buy the newspaper. Guys like this should be encouraged.
Guys like this should remain unknown lest they be corrupted by the powerful force of Ghana-must-Go. At least we know what Abatti was and what he represented. Now ...
Re: The Scandal Of Census Figures by GenBuhari(m): 9:37pm On Oct 29, 2012
Nigerians have to realise that Obasanjo has been deceiving Nigeria ever since he first came to power in his covert military coup in which Muritala Mohammed was assassinated in 1976.

This evil criminal has never told Nigeria the truth on any issue.

I have great admiration for Abacha for being the only leader to throw Obasanjo in jail.

Re: The Scandal Of Census Figures by TonySpike: 9:40pm On Oct 29, 2012
Let us not forget the golden rule applied in the formation of forming Nigeria, "The North SHALL be the husband and the South shall be the COVETED WIFE". This is the key to the absurd lies on Nigeria's population figure. Using the right figures equals demystifying the golden rule. The fraud will go on as far as we remain locked up in one nation. In my opinion, I believe the Igbos represent the largest ethnic nationality as far as Southern Nigeria is concerned. I need no soothsayer to tell me that!
Re: The Scandal Of Census Figures by ochukoccna: 9:48pm On Oct 29, 2012
It becomes clearer than day with evry ticking second that the Nigerian nation is a lie cobbled together
Recall the great Awo said Nigeria is a geographic expression
How right he was [Why he helped Gowon stop the breakaway of Biafra still beats me hollow though]

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