Census in Nigeria to a large extent dictates who really holds power. Census results are as sensitive as election results in Nigeria and with success recorded in the April 2011 polls as a result of computerization; the quest for computerized and credible systems in Nigeria has been intense.
Since Independence, Nigeria has conducted population censuses. Such censuses have been marred by controversies like inaccuracies, data manipulation and inflation of results. As sophisticated technology continues to impact on organizations and countries, a growing need for efficient, flexible and cost effective census system becomes paramount. The final solution thus lies in employing the services of a computerized census system in Nigeria.

Nna ehn, na wa o. The most annoying part of this is that the npc will try to make a mockery of this discovery and sweep it aside.

The problem with nigeria is that nigeria does not know its problem(s).

Good job poster

Standing5: Also in the most southern Nigeria cities one can easily notice the rise in no. of new generation of northerners now migrating there. You will find them trading and driving okadas, yet there is no guaranty that these movements will reflect in the next census exercise. don't also forget the Boko Haram effect.

I honestly agreed with you but it is unfortunate you hide the fact that it is the Northerners that marry early, have more than one wife and they don’t practice family planning. The problem of an average Southerner is hypocrisy that why the Western World even though most of you accepted their religion didn’t trust. I am sorry if i hurt you but that is the fact.

rusep:

I honestly agreed with you but it is unfortunate you hide the fact that it is the Northerners that marry early, have more than one wife and they don’t practice family planning. The problem of an average Southerner is hypocrisy that why the Western World even though most of you accepted their religion didn’t trust. I am sorry if i hurt you but that is the fact.

The bolded is more reason why it is totally ridiculous that the percentages have been consistent for all states in the study. Death, birth and migration rates would have affected the percentages. The Northern census figures were falsified right from the start and the trend is still being upheld by the traitors who have been continuosly recycled in our leadership. A proper census is one of the steps needed to move Nigeria forward. How do you budget and provide for a nation correctly when the statistics are totally wrong? No wonder our leaders keep behaving as if this country is a farce; they know it is a farce! We are one day closer to the end of this madness!

I laughed really hard. That's Nigeria for you. It's a mere extrapolation and nothing more. The 1963 formula was adopted when Awolowo systematically demolished the nonsense called 1973 figures. Since then, check 1991, it's all the same formula.

Just create a National ID for everyone linked to all essential stuff like phone number, bank account number, driver licence, then the fraud is over.

From the time it was first conducted in 1931, census enumeration in Nigeria has consistently produced disputable result.The 1931 enumeration made no pretence at all to comprehensive count or acccuracy. At best, the whole exercise was an intelligent gestimate, in-so-far as the Southern part of the country was concerned.
In Economic Survey of Nigeria 1959, published under the direction of Nigeria’s National Economic Council, the following comment is made at page 103:

‘...The 1931 census figures for Southern Nigeria. apart from Lagos, were rarely more than an estimate of population based on the number of males assessed for tax...’

Having regard to the hostility of the people of the South to taxation (vide Adubi Rising of 1918 and Aba Riot of 1930), and the widespread tax evasion prevalent in that part of the country, it is not difficult to come to the conclusion that, for the South at least, the 1931 census erred on the side of gross underestimation.There are good grounds for the view that the 1952/53 census figures represent an equally gross underestimation for the whole country.

In the first place, the siting of schools in the Western Region in 1953 and 1954 revealed that a large number of villages had been omitted from the count. These omissions were further confirmed by the huge excess of the number of children actually registered in 1954 over the estimated number based on the census figures of 1952.

In the second place, according to the Western Region of Nigeria Statistical Abstract, the estimated population of the Western State in 1951, at 2 per cent growth rate, based on the 1931 underestimation is 4.505 million. But the 1952 enumeration yielded a figure of 4.35 million for the Western State. An estimate based on the 1931 figure at 2 per cent growth rate, would have yielded 4.6 million for the Western State in 1952 as against 4.35 million.

In the third place, an estimate based on Unesco’s Statistical Yearbook’s estimated population figure for Nigeria for 1950 should give us an estimated population of 32.047 million in 1953. But the actual enumeration gave us 30.417 million, which is 6.630 million less than UNESCO’s estimate at 2.5 pe cent growth rate.

The 1962 census result was rejected; and so, we do not need to dwell upon it, except to take note of it as another instance of the ungracious career of census enumeration in Nigeria.

In 1963, however, we had another headcount which gave Nigeria a population of 55.670 million.

The U.N.s Statistical Yearbook 1971 gives the midyear estimate for 1963 as 46.324 million which is 9.346 million less than the 1963 census result.
This YEARBOOK has the following footnote at page 72 on Nigeria’s census figure for 1963:

"There is a possibility that the 1963 census overstated the
population. The size of this possible overstatement may
be judged from the midyear estimates for 1963 and
1970 provided by the United Nation’s Population Division.’

I will be the last person to dismiss independent estimates made by the United Nation’s Population Division out of hand. But after a careful study of all the available data and information on the subject, I have come to the conclusion that, of all the ugly and disputable census results with which Nigeria has had the misfortune to be afflicted from 1931 to1973, the LEAST UGLY or, if you like, the LEAST DISPUTABLE OF THEM ALL IS THE 1963 CENSUS RESULT.
The reasons are not far to seek.

Firstly, as has been pointed out, the figures for 1931 and 1953 suffer from gross underestimation. That being so, the growth rate of 5.6 per cent indicated between 1953 and 1963 should be taken as containing compensatory elements for the excessive errors and omissions of 1931 and 1953.
Secondly, in one of the footnotes, the UN Statistical Yearbook 1971 states that its estimate of 46.324 million for 1963, which is printed in italics at page 64, is of ‘QUESTIONABLE RELIABILITY’.
Thirdly, in Africa South of the Sahara 1974 (a Europa Publication), at page 587, Professor Ojetunji Aboyade and Miss Jane Carroll, after making reference to the figure of between 41.5 million and 45 million at which independent estimates put our population in 1963, comment on our current population figure, as projected by the Federal Office of Statistics, as follows:

‘HOWEVER, IN THE LIGHT OF RECENT INDIRECT EVIDENCE (e.g.
STATISTICAL FIELD RETURNS OF THE MASS VACCINATION
CAMPAIGN) THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FIGURE OF TOTAL POPULATION
MAY WELL BE NEAREST THE TRUTH THUS INDICATING
GROSS UNDERCOUNTING FOR 1931 and 1952/53 CENSUSES.’


[b]THIS brings me to the 1973 census result. I have examined this result from several standpoints which times does not permit me to elaborate upon here, and as a result, I have been irresistibly impelled to the conclusion that the so-called ROVISIONAL FIGURES are absolutely unreliable and should be totally rejected by the Supreme Military Council. In the first place, based on UNESCOs estimate in its Statistical Yearbook 1972, at 2.5 per cent growth rate, our estimated population for 1973 should be 59.63 million. The 79.76 million population, which we are now trying to bestow upon ourselves is, therefore, 20.40 million more than the estimate based on the UNESCO projection. By comparison, the U.N. and UNESCO estimates gave us 46.324 million in 1963 as against 55.670 million.

In 1963, therefore, we exceeded the UNESCO estimate only by 9.34 million; whereas in 1973 we exceeded the U.N. and UNESCO estimate by 20.40 million. It follows that, if the 1963 figures are nearest the truth, then the 1973 figures are furthest from the truth. In the second place, during the intercensal periods of 1931 to 1953 and 1953 to 1963, the trend in inter-regional population movements showed that the South was gaining steadily at the expense of the North. In 1931, the population of the North was 58 per cent of the total for the country, in 1953 it was 55 per cent; and in 1963 it was 54 per cent. I hasten to add that it does not even require arithmetical calculations such as these to demonstrate that the South has, population wise since 1931, been gaining steadily at the expense of the North: the trend is visible for everyone in Nigeria to see. And having regard to the existing economic and social circumstances of the country, this trend is not only natural and normal, but also necessary and welcome.

The 1973 PROVISIONAL census figures have, however,shown a complete and sharp reversal of this normal trend. During the intercensal period of 1963 to 1973, the North has moved from 54 per cent of total population to 65 per cent. Unless it can be established that there was gross undercounting of the North in 1963 as compared with the rest of the country, which from all available evidence was certainly not the case, what the 1973 provisional result necessarily implies, therefore, among other things, is that many more Southerners had moved to the North between 1963 and 1973 than the other way round. This is obviously not the case. On the contrary, as we all know, population movement from the North to the South was greater and more massive in the last ten years than ever before. In the third place, the average population growth rate for Africa as a whole is 2.7 per cent, whilst the growth rates in West African countries range between 1.9 per cent and 3 per cent. The 1973 provisional census result for Nigeria, however, indicates that the range of growth rates in our 12 states is between 0.62 per cent in the Western State and 7.04 per cent in the North-Eastern State. This just cannot be true. And for anyone seriously to suggest that it can in the face of the visible, tangible relative factors for population growth in the different States in the country, is to deny ordinary commonsense to the Nigerian populace, and to inflict grievous wounds both on our body politic and on the feelings of thinking Nigerian citizens.

In the fourth place, the provisional figures have revived, with greater vividness and starker reality, the erstwhile fear of permanent domination of one group of Nigerians by another. According to the provisional figures, the population of North-East and Kano States alone is almost equal to that of the South put together. And if the utterly false trends of population growths in the States, indicated by the provisional figures, were contrived and repeated in 1983 - and one cannot now see, if the provisional figures are allowed to stand, why a repeat performance should not occur in 1983; if the same trends were repeated in 1983 by the same contrivances, then 74 per cent of all Nigerians would be living in the North, ten years from now! The fear and dreadful forebodings which the provisional figures struck into the minds of many Nigerians have been further heightened, on reflection, by the steady erosion of the powers of the States in favour of the Federal Government. A close analysis of the situation will reveal that the country is already sliding back to a unitary form of Government behind an imposing facade of federalism. And as we all know, under a unitary form of Government, by whatever name called and no matter how many ineffective States there are in the country, whichever party controls the Central Government controls all, and dominates all.[/b]

By Obafemi Awolowo

rusep:

I honestly agreed with you but it is unfortunate you hide the fact that it is the Northerners that marry early, have more than one wife and they don’t practice family planning. The problem of an average Southerner is hypocrisy that why the Western World even though most of you accepted their religion didn’t trust. I am sorry if i hurt you but that is the fact.

The average northerner marries early, does less of family planning! Yes, i agree, but they also have higher child-birth death, and on the average produce less children. One northern male married to four wives on the average will have atmost 4 kids from each wife. That leaves us with 5 parents and 16 children unlike the south where 2 parents on the average will have 5 children between them. Work out the ratios and see what you get for the north vs south. The result is far from the general public assumption. The only thing the north has going for them is their large landmass. Tarring roads will cost more in each northern state than in a southern state. That's all.

Prof Corruption: I laughed really hard. That's Nigeria for you. It's a mere extrapolation and nothing more. The 1963 formula was adopted when Awolowo systematically demolished the nonsense called 1973 figures. Since then, check 1991, it's all the same formula.

Just create a National ID for everyone linked to all essential stuff like phone number, bank account number, driver licence, then the fraud is over.

Add voter card registration and satelite monitoring system to the bold and the north only hope will be the manipulation of their sharia system to subvent the above stated.


[/quote]

Interesting read!
I repeat my call for a SOVEREIGN NATIONAL CONFERENCE.

seyibrown:

The bolded is more reason why it is totally ridiculous that the percentages have been consistent for all states in the study. Death, birth and migration rates would have affected the percentages. The Northern census figures were falsified right from the start and the trend is still being upheld by the traitors who have been continuosly recycled in our leadership. A proper census is one of the steps needed to move Nigeria forward. How do you budget and provide for a nation correctly when the statistics are totally wrong? No wonder our leaders keep behaving as if this country is a farce; they know it is a farce! We are one day closer to the end of this madness!

+10

It isn't really the # of wives you marry that is important. It is female fertility...# of children a woman has over her lifetime.

After all, if a northern man has 4 wives, that means that his brothers are going without (well, temporarily ignoring a minor effect that I don't think is so relevant).

A committee would be set up to look into the census matter

ekt_bear: It isn't really the # of wives you marry that is important. It is female fertility...# of children a woman has over her lifetime.

After all, if a northern man has 4 wives, that means that his brothers are going without (well, temporarily ignoring a minor effect that I don't think is so relevant).

Without wives can female children be concieved under a well structured family cycle system? Its like eggs and chickens. We are probably both right and both wrong depending on which one existed first - Adam and Eve story.

Prof Corruption: THIS brings me to the 1973
census result. I have examined
this result from several
standpoints which times does
not permit me to elaborate upon
here, and as a result, I have been irresistibly impelled to the
conclusion that the so-called
ROVISIONAL FIGURES are
absolutely unreliable and should
be totally rejected by the
Supreme Military Council. In the first place, based on UNESCOs
estimate in its Statistical
Yearbook 1972, at 2.5 per cent
growth rate, our estimated
population for 1973 should be
59.63 million. The 79.76 million population, which we are now
trying to bestow upon ourselves
is, therefore, 20.40 million more
than the estimate based on the
UNESCO projection. By
comparison, the U.N. and UNESCO estimates gave us 46.324 million
in 1963 as against 55.670
million.
In 1963, therefore, we
exceeded the UNESCO estimate
only by 9.34 million; whereas in 1973 we exceeded the U.N. and
UNESCO estimate by 20.40
million. It follows that, if the
1963 figures are nearest the
truth, then the 1973 figures are
furthest from the truth. In the second place, during the
intercensal periods of 1931 to
1953 and 1953 to 1963, the
trend in inter-regional
population movements showed
that the South was gaining steadily at the expense of the
North. In 1931, the population
of the North was 58 per cent of
the total for the country, in 1953
it was 55 per cent; and in 1963 it
was 54 per cent. I hasten to add that it does not even require
arithmetical calculations such as
these to demonstrate that the
South has, population wise since
1931, been gaining steadily at
the expense of the North: the trend is visible for everyone in
Nigeria to see. And having
regard to the existing economic
and social circumstances of the
country, this trend is not only
natural and normal, but also necessary and welcome.
The 1973 PROVISIONAL census
figures have, however,shown a
complete and sharp reversal of
this normal trend. During the
intercensal period of 1963 to 1973, the North has moved from
54 per cent of total population to
65 per cent. Unless it can be
established that there was gross
undercounting of the North in
1963 as compared with the rest of the country, which from all
available evidence was certainly
not the case, what the 1973
provisional result necessarily
implies, therefore, among other
things, is that many more Southerners had moved to the
North between 1963 and 1973
than the other way round. This is
obviously not the case. On the
contrary, as we all know,
population movement from the North to the South was greater
and more massive in the last ten
years than ever before. In the
third place, the average
population growth rate for
Africa as a whole is 2.7 per cent, whilst the growth rates in West
African countries range between
1.9 per cent and 3 per cent. The
1973 provisional census result
for Nigeria, however, indicates
that the range of growth rates in our 12 states is between 0.62
per cent in the Western State and
7.04 per cent in the North-
Eastern State. This just cannot be
true. And for anyone seriously to
suggest that it can in the face of the visible, tangible relative
factors for population growth in
the different States in the
country, is to deny ordinary
commonsense to the Nigerian
populace, and to inflict grievous wounds both on our body
politic and on the feelings of
thinking Nigerian citizens.
In the fourth place, the
provisional figures have revived,
with greater vividness and starker reality, the erstwhile fear
of permanent domination of one
group of Nigerians by another.
According to the provisional
figures, the population of North-
East and Kano States alone is almost equal to that of the South
put together. And if the utterly
false trends of population
growths in the States, indicated
by the provisional figures, were
contrived and repeated in 1983 - and one cannot now see, if the
provisional figures are allowed
to stand, why a repeat
performance should not occur in
1983; if the same trends were
repeated in 1983 by the same contrivances, then 74 per cent of
all Nigerians would be living in
the North, ten years from now!
The fear and dreadful
forebodings which the
provisional figures struck into the minds of many Nigerians
have been further heightened,
on reflection, by the steady
erosion of the powers of the
States in favour of the Federal
Government. A close analysis of the situation will reveal that the
country is already sliding back to
a unitary form of Government
behind an imposing facade of
federalism. And as we all know,
under a unitary form of Government, by whatever name
called and no matter how many
ineffective States there are in the
country, whichever party
controls the Central Government
controls all, and dominates all. By Obafemi Awolowo

Quite a revealing exposé this is.
This goes a long way to show that this fraud has been consistent and going on unabated for donkey years. Sometimes I wonder where OBJ's loyalty lies. A fraud of this magnitude is going on against your own people and you couldnt do anything to buck the ugly trend. Shame on you Baba Iyabo.

sheyguy: Without wives can female children be concieved under a well structured family cycle system? Its like eggs and chickens. We are probably both right and both wrong depending on which one existed first - Adam and Eve story.

No, think about it this way.

On Island 1 (northern nigeria), there are 100 women and 100 men. But the most powerful man takes all the women for himself. So 99 guys are without women.

On Island 2 (southern Nigeria), every man gets 1 woman each.

Would we then say that Island 1 will necessarily have a higher population growth rate than Island 2? Of course not...the size of the second generation of people on both Island 1 and Island 2 is purely the number of kids each woman has. This is pretty much just math. The fact that a woman shares her husband doesn't necessarily mean that her fertility will increase. At least, this isn't something one should assume...you'd need some sort of additional evidence to back it up.

Anyway, my point is, whether in Northern Nigeria they marry 4 wives or only 1, it doesn't increase the number of women available (at least, assuming women aren't being imported into Northern Nigeria or something en masse.)

ekt_bear:

No, think about it this way.

On Island 1 (northern nigeria), there are 100 women and 100 men. But the most powerful man takes all the women for himself. So 99 guys are without women.

On Island 2 (southern Nigeria), every man gets 1 woman each.

Would we then say that Island 1 will necessarily have a higher population growth rate than Island 2? Of course not...the size of the second generation of people on both Island 1 and Island 2 is purely the number of kids each woman has. This is pretty much just math. The fact that a woman shares her husband doesn't necessarily mean that her fertility will increase. At least, this isn't something one should assume...you'd need some sort of additional evidence to back it up.

Anyway, my point is, whether in Northern Nigeria they marry 4 wives or only 1, it doesn't increase the number of women available (at least, assuming women aren't being imported into Northern Nigeria or something en masse.)

There is good probability that the man with ~100 wives will get fewer kids from each wife, especially in a society that see women as properties and restricts them from certain exposing task like farming and hunting. The man's best bet to sustaining his biological seed will be the amount of male offspring available to fend and provide for the females. The southern family and societal values still comes out top here.

" CHOP AND CLEAN MOUTH"

This country is " CHOP AND CLEAN MOUTH" You just dey disturb yourself because the cabal cannot change as they have no conscience.They all are evil.

Nobody is talking about the cattle and fowls counted in 1963 as humans?

andyanders: This country is " CHOP AND CLEAN MOUTH" You just dey disturb yourself because the cabal cannot change as they have no conscience.They all are evil.

You will not be different if you get there so stop crying foul, your type will seize peoples salary for the next 6 months before leaving office.

van bonattel:

You will not be different if you get there so stop crying foul, your type will seize peoples salary for the next 6 months before leaving office.

That will be better Mr. do well

the whole nation was built on a lie, the foundation was very faulty, built with fake materials, repaired with damaged items and still suffering structural abuse. my surprise is, why has this country not fallen apart till now?

@ OP this is a very revealing piece, I am impressed this is coming up at a critical stage in d history of this country.Right from the 1962 census till the last in 2006 it has been fraudulent figures galore! I hope the forthcoming one in 2015 wil be more transparent to checkmate the British winning formula for the Northern hegemony. I wonder how Ibadan in the 60s could be more than Kano and all of a sudden in the 90s and now (2012)Kano is more and ridiculously than Lagos, no thanks to Obj on that

tomakint: @ OP this is a very revealing piece, I am impressed this is coming up at a critical stage in d history of this country.Right from the 1962 census till the last in 2006 it has been fraudulent figures galore! I hope the forthcoming one in 2015 wil be more transparent to checkmate the British winning formula for the Northern hegemony. I wonder how Ibadan in the 60s could be more than Kano and all of a sudden in the 90s and now (2012)Kano is more and ridiculously than Lagos, no thanks to Obj on that

Kano and Lagos have grown much faster than Ibadan as a result of many factors. Watch out for Abuja and Port Harcourt.

Isn't this a waste of time? Who doesn't know the census figure, and other so called "statistics" is fake in Nigeria?
Even the Kano 1991 census figure you mentioned was Kano + Jigawa state included. Now the new Kano still has the same population or even more than Lagos state.While Jigawa has another extra 5 million people as its population!!! Where did the extra 5 million come from?
That means the population growth in the old Kano state was about 100% in less than 10 years! Which qualifies to enter the guiness book of records. Infact, if Jigawa had not been created out from Kano state, the present population of kano state will now officially be 16 million people! Extra 7 million people more than Lagos! Tell me,isn't the figure laughable?

cjrane: Isn't this a waste of time? Who doesn't know the census figure, and other so called "statistics" is fake in Nigeria?
Even the Kano 1991 census figure you mentioned was Kano + Jigawa state included. Now the new Kano still has the same population or even more than Lagos state.While Jigawa has another extra 5 million people as its population!!! Where did the extra 5 million come from?
That means the population growth in the old Kano state was about 100% in less than 10 years! Which qualifies to enter the guiness book of records. Infact, if Jigawa had not been created out from Kano state, the present population of kano state will now officially be 16 million people! Extra 7 million people more than Lagos! Tell me,isn't the figure laughable?

I dey laugh o

Nigeria is just a Jokeland.

jhydebaba: Nigeria is just a Jokeland.

a circus show really

cjrane: Isn't this a waste of time? Who doesn't know the census figure, and other so called "statistics" is fake in Nigeria?
Even the Kano 1991 census figure you mentioned was Kano + Jigawa state included. Now the new Kano still has the same population or even more than Lagos state.While Jigawa has another extra 5 million people as its population!!! Where did the extra 5 million come from?
That means the population growth in the old Kano state was about 100% in less than 10 years! Which qualifies to enter the guiness book of records. Infact, if Jigawa had not been created out from Kano state, the present population of kano state will now officially be 16 million people! Extra 7 million people more than Lagos! Tell me,isn't the figure laughable?

All the results were mere fabrications constructed by UN and given to FG for defrauding the world. We are not up to 140million. Lagos is near accurate while Kano State should be around 7million. Oyo, Rivers, Anambra, Kaduna, Delta and Imo are next on the line in that order with somewhere between 3 to 5 million.

Abagworo:


All the results were mere fabrications constructed by UN and given to FG for defrauding the world. We are not up to 140million. Lagos is near accurate while Kano State should be around 7million. Oyo, Rivers, Anambra, Kaduna, Delta and Imo are next on the line in that order with somewhere between 3 to 5 million.

How do you know its the UN and not some powerful ppl in govt just twisting figures to please other powerful ppl out of govt? the first day i heard kano was more populous than lagos, I burst out crying with laughter

Lagos, where Igbo people troop to start business while the population keep rising

van bonattel:

How do you know its the UN and not some powerful ppl in govt just twisting figures to please other powerful ppl out of govt? the first day i heard kano was more populous than lagos, I burst out crying with laughter

Lagos, where Igbo people troop to start business while the population keep rising

Abeg no burst o. Kano has more non-Nigerians migrating there than Lagos. These people are mainly from Chad, Senegal, Mali, Niger and Burkinafaso and they can't speak English and hence stay put in Kano or the North. Kano is however not as populous as Lagos.

I believe that a lot of Nigeria's policies are influenced by the UN, World Bank and IMF including elections and census. Even our oil production and refineries. I try as much to avoid this conspiracy theory but it keeps staring at me in the face.