Ngene-Ukwenu:


This is where you are getting it wrong, Governorship election is different from presidential election, they can unite to win the state elections, but when it comes to the presidential election it is another kettle of fish brother. I have not met any Hausa man who says he would vote Jonathan in 2015 just the same way i cannot lure my mother from not voting Jonathan.

dayokanu:

You said Yorubas dont do herd mentality, You can call it any name you want but from history Yorubas vote for any trusted party or leader, The candidate is secondary. How come they all voted AG, all voted UPN, All voted AD and all voted ACN at the same time

How many ppl knew Fashola in 2007 before voting him? Do you think ppl voted fashola or AC? How come ppl voted all the candidates AD presented in 1999? If AD had presented a goat in 1999 he would have won

Let me clear something here. Mimiko only became governor in Ondo because he allied with Tinbu and ACN to dislodge the big elephant in the room which was OBJ-Agagu. Without Tinubus support Mimiko would never have won in Ondo.

Secondly Most Yorubas dont want to hear PDP. Let Mimiko try and decamp to PDP and see him get booted out in a matter of weeks. Yorubas would rather vote for ANC of South Africa than vote PDP.

Which Redeemed camp factor? How come the redeemed camp factor didnt make the Moslem candidates lose governorship election in Oyo, Ogun, Osun and Lagos

Lord Varys: No matter how one spins it, religion still remains a prime factor in politics in every region of nigeria 'the redeemed camp incident' to a large extent galvanised western christian voters for GEJ in 2011, it is this same religious factor that is inducing the agitation for a xtian governor in lagos in 2015 or that is responsible for the recurring clashes between christian leaders and aregbesola in Osun, I admit the SW is the most liberal part of nigeria as regards religion but its still a factor even the APC can't overlook, its why they won't also pick fashola to avoid a Muslim-Muslim ticket, I believe in competence , agnostic personally,but there are many ignorant nigerians who are easily swayed and any smart politician takes advantage of this, don't also underestimate the power of effective campaigning, GEJ's 2011 Campaign was the most effective nigeria had seen since Abiola's Hope 1993

dayokanu:

Thats where they are getting it wrong. Its like saying because Edo is ACN everywhere we expect Jonathan to lose in Edo.

Thats basically wishful thinking and No APC memeber is that deluded, Even if Oshiomole vote in every booth in Edo he cant have more than 40% to APC in the presidential election

Note: In 2011 All Northern states voted PDP in Governorship, a week later all voted CPC in presidency, All SW voted ACN in governorship election a week later voted PDP for presidency

dayokanu:

Thats where they are getting it wrong. Its like saying because Edo is ACN everywhere we expect Jonathan to lose in Edo.

Thats basically wishful thinking and No APC memeber is that deluded, Even if Oshiomole vote in every booth in Edo he cant have more than 40% to APC in the presidential election

Note: In 2011 All Northern states voted PDP in Governorship, a week later all voted CPC in presidency, All SW voted ACN in governorship election a week later voted PDP for presidency

dayokanu:

So you think propaganda would make Yorubas vote against their beloved son Babatunde Fashola?

Let me see how PDP would tell people to vote Jonathan and Sambo over our son Babatunde fashola when he is campaigning in Yoruba language in Ibadan, Ado-Ekiti, Akure etc

jmaine: Corrections

1) Koro had a terrible image in Lagos just like Buhari has in the SW. And Lagosians went for the lesser evil.

A Funsho Williams would have decimated Fashola with ease

2) Mimiko always had a strong followership in Ondo, and he won his poll without Tinubu.

Tinubu only came in to assist during his legal battles to reclaim his stolen mandate

3) Most Yorubas hated the PDP because of their performance and not because a certain Tinubu was on the horizon.

As a matter of fact, the Tinubu factor was the main issue Ondo electorates had with the ACN

Ngene-Ukwenu:


This is where you are getting it wrong, Governorship election is different from presidential election, they can unite to win the state elections, but when it comes to the presidential election it is another kettle of fish brother. I have not met any Hausa man who says he would vote Jonathan in 2015 just the same way i cannot lure my mother from not voting Jonathan.

dayokanu:

So you think propaganda would make Yorubas vote against their beloved son Babatunde Fashola?

Let me see how PDP would tell people to vote Jonathan and Sambo over our son Babatunde fashola when he is campaigning in Yoruba language in Ibadan, Ado-Ekiti, Akure etc

jmaine:

Correction

The Presidential poll came before the Gubernatorial polls.

Lord Varys:
This is exactly the point I'm making,that the fact that the APC holds SW governorships might not necessarily translate into votes in the presidential elections for a northern candidate if there is no SW running mate, it will make be extremely difficult to galvanise support for a northern candidate, thank goodness APC leaders are looking beyond Buhari to people with less baggage like Tambuwal else they'll have found it difficult selling him to south westerners

Ngene-Ukwenu:


You are wrong Mr.

dayokanu:

You said Yorubas dont do herd mentality, You can call it any name you want but from history Yorubas vote for any trusted party or leader, The candidate is secondary. How come they all voted AG, all voted UPN, All voted AD and all voted ACN at the same time

How many ppl knew Fashola in 2007 before voting him? Do you think ppl voted fashola or AC? How come ppl voted all the candidates AD presented in 1999? If AD had presented a goat in 1999 he would have won

Let me clear something here. Mimiko only became governor in Ondo because he allied with Tinbu and ACN to dislodge the big elephant in the room which was OBJ-Agagu. Without Tinubus support Mimiko would never have won in Ondo.

Secondly Most Yorubas dont want to hear PDP. Let Mimiko try and decamp to PDP and see him get booted out in a matter of weeks. Yorubas would rather vote for ANC of South Africa than vote PDP.

Which Redeemed camp factor? How come the redeemed camp factor didnt make the Moslem candidates lose governorship election in Oyo, Ogun, Osun and Lagos

jmaine:

Fashola at the head of the flag will cause a major pull, but a Fashola at the base may not yield the kind of impact you feel. Pastor Tunde Bakare clean image is a pointer

You are not even sure Fashola will be picked as any of the flag bearer. What if Fashola is not considered. ?

What happens to your believe ?

jmaine:

Correction

The Presidential poll came before the Gubernatorial polls.

dayokanu:

Fashola was a nobody in lagos politics yet won the election, People simply voted AC the party regardless of who the flagbearer was. that was why the ticket of AC was the most bitter battle.

Without Tinubus assistance in winning the stolen mandate how would he be able to rule? Or you think Agagu would just willingly relinquish the post?

EVen when the Yorubas hated PDP they still chose Tinubus party , they had the option of Afeniferes party but went with Tinubus or why didnt they return to voting the AD instead of Tinubus AC?

jmaine:

Fashola at the head of the flag will cause a major pull, but a Fashola at the base may not yield the kind of impact you feel. Pastor Tunde Bakare clean image is a pointer

You are not even sure Fashola will be picked as any of the flag bearer. What if Fashola is not considered. ?

What happens to your believe ?

jmaine:

Fashola at the head of the flag will cause a major pull, but a Fashola at the base may not yield the kind of impact you feel. Pastor Tunde Bakare clean image is a pointer

You are not even sure Fashola will be picked as any of the flag bearer. What if Fashola is not considered. ?

What happens to your believe ?

dayokanu:

And you think everyone in APC is daft enough to exclude Fashola one of their strongest candidate from the ticket at the expense of losing for someone like Rochas or Amaaechi who may not even win their LGA in a presidential election.

You think no one has sense in the whole APC to see this glaring fact or what are you saying?

You are hoping they pick Rochas just the same way APC would be hoping the PDP picks Peter Obi for Vice

Lord Varys:
Despite the Demonization Of PDP, they still trailed behind LP in Ondo, Despite their demonization they still manage to poll at least 35% in any SW election even when they lose.......
The 2015 presidential polls will not be determined by where you win but by how well you are able to perform in you opponent's strong bases, while GEJ can get an easy 35%-40% at worse in the SW , the APC will struggle to be seen in GEJ's strongholds, I'm a politician and I know how these things work, the PDP has a very effective election winning machinery that even at its weakest can still pull surprises,

dayokanu:

Jonathan 2011 appeared effective because Yorubas were not interested. The ACN was more interested in winning the governorship in their region before trying for presidency and it can be seen from the half hearted attempts made.

Answer this question: Do you think any Yoruba person even Adeboye or oyedepo in their minds would vote Jonathan ticket over a Fashola ticket?

Yorubas dont care about religion, almost everyone in Yorubaland has a moslem family member, So they would tell you not to vote for your uncle because he is Moslem? but rather vote for Mr Jonathan from bayelsa because he is xtian?

dayokanu:

Fashola was a nobody in lagos politics yet won the election, People simply voted AC the party regardless of who the flagbearer was. that was why the ticket of AC was the most bitter battle.

Without Tinubus assistance in winning the stolen mandate how would he be able to rule? Or you think Agagu would just willingly relinquish the post?

EVen when the Yorubas hated PDP they still chose Tinubus party , they had the option of Afeniferes party but went with Tinubus or why didnt they return to voting the AD instead of Tinubus AC?

Lord Varys:
Lol, APC is not picking Fashola, ask any APC leader around, the party wants some form of religious balancing to avoid playing into the hands of the PdP with a muslim-muslim ticket, you should have noticed already that Fashola is barely active in APC national politics choosing instead to stay on the sidelines, rather Amaechi and Okorocha move around,making statements,projecting themselves forward, bros Fash has pretty much been out schemed in the party......Amaechi would be the likeliest VP candidate

cramjones: I am enjoying the discussions. If you have any specific question you think I have not addressed completely feel free to ask. Let this discussion continue. I applaud all who have contributed so far, irrespective of the side of the divide you belong.

Remember: If APC wins in 2015, PDP becomes a major opposition and is well capable of checkmating any excesses haven been in government for over 13 years. All APC wants is progress and a reversal of the destructive nature of the Jonathanians!

Lord Varys:
Yet Koro still put up a strong performance then,he had about 40% of the cast votes then, that's the kind of ability the PDP has.......

dayokanu:

The PDP of now has been decimated in the SW beyond repairs. The support of OBJ, Oyinlola etc they could count on before is now gone.

Politics is a game of numbers I told you earlier winning 100% of bayelsa is still inferior to winning 60% of Katsina

State counts I already see APC winning by adding 6 SW states to the 13 Northern ones plus Niger and Kwara.

Numbers wise I see APC winning since they control 7 of the 8 most populous states in Nigeria.

So what does Jonathan have going for it? Winning 100% of tiny states like Ebonyi, Bayelsa Abia, Cross River, Plateau cant help you because giants states like Kano, Lagos, Oyo Katsina, Bauchi, are ready to triple those Jonathan states

jmaine:

Brother Dayo, the absence of Funsho Williams and the terrible image of Koro gave Fashola the victory. In the same manner GEJ trounced Buhari cos he was the lesser evil.

You don't win a stolen mandate without winning the election , and winning the election against the giant PDP means you have to command impeccable followership. The most important part was winning the polls and Mimiko did that without a shred of Tinubu assistance.


Again , the Yorubas chose the ACN because it was a viable alternative and not because of Tinubu. The ACN owe a lot to Fashola first term performance which was the cardinal selling point of the party. But recent events has shown that campaign edge has been eroded.

Lord Varys:
Despite the Demonization Of PDP, they still trailed behind LP in Ondo, Despite their demonization they still manage to poll at least 35% in any SW election even when they lose.......
The 2015 presidential polls will not be determined by where you win but by how well you are able to perform in you opponent's strong bases, while GEJ can get an easy 35%-40% at worse in the SW , the APC will struggle to be seen in GEJ's strongholds, I'm a politician and I know how these things work, the PDP has a very effective election winning machinery that even at its weakest can still pull surprises,