After The BRICS Are The MINTs, But Can You Make Any Money From Them?

The former Goldman Sachs economist Jim O’Neill will forever be associated with the term BRIC, which he coined as an acronym for Brazil, Russia, India and China (now commonly bracketed with South Africa to make BRICS). The term caught on and has been common parlance for a decade now. And now O’Neill, though no longer with Goldman, has a new one: the MINT countries.

Mint? This term refers to Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey, and O’Neill’s premise is that these will be the next economic powerhouses. They are bound by a few key themes: young populations, useful geographical placement, and (Turkey excepted) by being commodity producers.

Personally I have mixed feelings about the MINTs, and also think that any use of this idea as an investment theme ought to take into account just what’s happened to the BRICS in recent years. But we’ll come back to tha

First, the good news. Mexico and Nigeria have some of the best prospects in all emerging markets. Nigeria, in particular, is thought to be in an economic sweet spot and has gathered increasing attention from world investors over the last year. It is about to undergo a GDP re-basing – a reassessment of the country’s GDP – and when that happens, it may well prove to be the biggest economy in Africa, bigger even than South Africa. Reniassance Capital, for example, estimates that Nigeria’s economy was worth $405 billion in 2013, compared to $355 billion for South Africa. On top of that, Renaissance points out, it will become 20% of the MSCI frontier index, is undergoing a period of reform with some considerable ability in the public sector (notably the finance minister and central bank governor), and even without reform has grown by 7% a year since 2000. There are considerable challenges, from corruption to theft of natural resources, but Nigeria is a high-population market of growing wealth and opportunity.

Mexico, too, is increasingly the Latin American market that investors like most. It is increasingly common for investors to say they like Mexico “because it isn’t Brazil”, and although that remark is naturally a bit flippant, there is some truth in it: whereas Brazilian companies have tended to be sluggish and mired in state policy, Mexico’s benefit from market-friendly reforms and a sense of national momentum under President Enrique Pena Nieto, expected to attract steady increases in foreign investment.

The thing about Indonesia and Turkey, though, is that they are both the market darlings of about two years ago. Back then, Indonesia was much the most adored market in Asia by both debt and equity investors: a country that had made the successful transition from military dictatorship to democracy, and which had elected a stable and admired government; a very strong domestic demand story which insulated it from the global financial crisis; a young demographic; and plentiful supplies of coal at a time when China’s need for fuel had never been greater. But several things have since gone wrong. The fiscal picture has been damaged by twin deficits, the currency has fallen, concerns have grown about foreign outflows from the country, there is an election coming in which President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono cannot stand again, commodity prices have fallen, and there has been disappointing progress in infrastructure development.

Then there’s Turkey. In November, the IMF put out a report on Turkey saying that it “can only sustain high growth at the expense of growing external imbalances.” It called for a mighty 250 basis point rate hike in the key policy rate, one of the most aggressive IMF reports in memory. Turkey’s inflation rate is close to 8%, and it also faces deficit problems and a weakening currency. There are some who think there is a meltdown coming in Turkey, and while not everyone takes that view, it’s worth quoting Renaissance again on the relative merits of these MINT economies: “We like Nigeria for the first quarter of 2014. We’re not at all sure about Turkey.”

One point O’Neill makes about these countries is their location: Indonesia as the heart of southeast Asia, Mexico benefiting from proximity to the USA, Turkey with its combination of eastern and western attributes, and Nigeria as the most bouyant illustration of a rising African continent. It’s true that these locations do have a likely positive impact on trade.

But beyond all of this is the broader point of whether being the next BRICs is a good thing anyway. O’Neill, of course, is painting an economic picture that will take shape over decades and generations; his observations should be seen in that very long-term light. But for ordinary investors, perhaps hoping to invest in the stock markets of these countries, it is worth noting that BRIC equities have lagged the developed world for several years now and are very likely to do so again in 2014 (see my most recent article on the outlook for BRICs). All four BRICs face considerable economic challenges of one kind or another, and even when they’re growing fast, that does not necessarily equate to good growth in stock markets. The picture may be worse still in the debt markets, with emerging market debt considered to be particularly vulnerable to tapering in the US.

O’Neill coins catchy phrases and the long-term ramifications of his ideas are illuminating and important. But for the ordinary investor trying to earn a good return, it’s well worth forgetting the acronym and instead looking at individual countries on their merits, because right now, they are varied.




http://www.forbes.com/sites/chriswright/2014/01/06/after-the-brics-the-mints-catchy-acronym-but-can-you-make-any-money-from-it/

hmmm

BBC radio 4 devoted their 'Today' morning show to this topic with special emphasis on Lagos, Nigeria

They will air another in-depth programme on Nigeria on Wednesday 8th January at 9am GMT
[url] http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-25548060[/url]

Up naija

The next power houses would be called GAY. Ghana, Afghanestan and Yemen. God will help them

Theben: The next power house would called GAY. Ghana, Afghanestan and Yemen. God will help them

This is the funniest sheeet I've read this year in Nairaland.

Theben: The next power house would called GAY. Ghana, Afghanestan and Yemen. God will help them

BRIC,MINT, GAY

Theben: The next power house would called GAY. Ghana, Afghanestan and Yemen. God will help them

LMFAOO

This is the first time i am seeing a good story about Nigeria on bbc.

Theben: The next power house would called GAY. Ghana, Afghanestan and Yemen. God will help them

no make ghanians catch you o


The GAY

Theben: The next power house would called GAY. Ghana, Afghanestan and Yemen. God will help them

LWTMB! Jeeeez!!

Theben: The next power houses would be called GAY. Ghana, Afghanestan and Yemen. God will help them

I lack words

Theben: The next power houses would be called GAY. Ghana, Afghanestan and Yemen. God will help them

How can you mention Ghana's name with failed and terrorist countries such as Afghanistan and Yemen. Thunder fire you.


Next powerhouse with low crime,great economy, peaceful environment, great healthcare, and education

Singapore, ice land, Ghana, Norway, Switzerland = signs

When you look at these countries you see signs of great nation, unlike the mints which are full of criminals, bad leaderships,!bad health care, bad education and uncontrollable pop with no proper infrastructure to cater for the mass.

Jigga_man101:

How can you mention Ghana's name with failed and terrorist countries such as Afghanistan and Yemen. Thunder fire you.


Next powerhouse with low crime,great economy, peaceful environment, great healthcare, and education

Singapore, ice land, Ghana, Norway, Switzerland = signs

When you look at these countries you see signs of great nation, unlike the mints which are full of criminals, bad leaderships,!bad health care, bad education and uncontrollable pop with no proper infrastructure to cater for the mass.

lol.
ghanian logic at its finest.

Jiggaman hahahaha, don't mind me. Just joking. Dont want this thread to degenerate into Naija Ghana bashing thread. Lol

I know you never meant the insults on your post. Even if you do, i forgive you

Theben: The next power houses would be called GAY. Ghana, Afghanestan and Yemen. God will help them

The current power houses are called Mumudom led by Nigeria

---

Nigeria Ranked Worst Place To Be Born In 2013 ... https://www.nairaland.com/1110278/nigeria-ranked-worst-place-born/5........Sudan takes the 18th position, Mozambique the 19th and Nigeria the 20th Saddest Nations.... http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/nigeria-ranked-20th-saddest-nation/136026/

Theben: Jiggaman hahahaha, don't mind me. Was trying to get petrodolla and GH KWAME's attention. Lol

I know you never meant the insults on your post. Even if you do, i forgive you

All fun bro, don't mean it all .

When will y'all stop with the gay joke

Theben: Jiggaman hahahaha, don't mind me. Was trying to get petrodolla and GH KWAME's attention. Lol

I know you never meant the insults on your post. Even if you do, i forgive you

Well you got mine, what next? Because Forbes has a lot of stats about Nigeria. Hahahahhahahah!

Jigga_man101:

All fun bro, don't mean it all .

When will y'all stop with the gay joke

When we stop calling them mumugeria, mumudom, nigayria, bleachers etc.

solomon111: This is the first time i am seeing a good story about Nigeria on bbc.

Thats is because Nigeria is being TRANSFORMED gradually but steadily by a man who is not appreciated by us

Theben: The next power houses would be called GAY. Ghana, Afghanestan and Yemen. God will help them

Ghanaians will search for your IP and 'bomb' you!

rudedough: @GH^KWAME Please learn to take a jab and throw light jabs back. You take things too far with your many links and pictures.

Easy bro and have fun

I hear you Bros!

lagosph:
Thats is because Nigeria is being TRANSFORMED gradually but steadily by a man who is not appreciated by us

Nigeria`s biggest problem is ethno-tribal bigotry.
Goodluck Jonathan`s performance is appreciated by all except disgruntled political tribalists who lost their means of political livelihood who will not see anything good in all he is achieving.

Theben: The next power houses would be called GAY. Ghana, Afghanestan and Yemen. God will help them

hehehehehehehe.....can't stop laughing....funniest post so far in 2014...

@ thread....I still wonder y people se
ek jobs in Nigeria when we av a vast market to invest in even with as little as ten thousand u wud still make money....

Honestly, if I was born as a non Nigerian,I still would have wanted to be a Nigerian.

I love NIGERIA

Great news. Front page

I read the article on BBC site and was pleasantly surprised.

It is the unbiased who see the great potentials that the country has which have come to the fore under this administration.

This piece caught my attention

" In Nigeria, Central Bank Governor Lamido Sanusi argued that corruption rarely prevents economic development - and that the growth of the economy, accompanied by improvements in education, will lead to better governance and greater transparency.
Such views are important to listen to, as an alternative to our often simplistic Western way of thinking. For many credible people in the Mint countries, corruption is a consequence of their weak past, not a cause of a weak future, and certainly not the number one challenge. It falls way down a list compared with the costs of energy and the breadth of its availability and, of course, infrastructure".

And this

look forward to going back to each of them more regularly now I am helping to put them on the map, just as happened with the Bric countries 12 years ago.