World’s largest political risk advisory, Eurasia Group, has released its forecast for the 2015 presidential election in Nigeria. The report predicts the election outcome in favour of President Goodluck Jonathan, stating that he would be re-elected with a landslide victory.

The Eurasia Group report warned that a “desperate” Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), “facing the potential loss of its power (which dates back to 1999), would worsen profligacy, policy politicization, oil theft, and regional/sectarian tensions”.

Eurasia predicted a 75% chance for the PDP winning at the polls, but said APC, with 25%, still had a chance “if it can mobilize behind a strong northern presidential candidate that has Buhari’s backing and a vice president who can deliver votes and high turnout in the southwest.”

That means PDP is three times more likely to win the election than APC. The group said the defections that affected PDP have stopped and have even been reversed in some cases, noting that the biggest opposition party, All Progressives Congress (APC), was in “disarray”.

The report was obviously written before the Osun governorship election, which was won by APC, as it only made reference to the Ekiti poll which saw the opposition party lose in every local government. The Africa Director of Eurasia, Philippe de Pontet, wrote that the six months leading to the presidential election “will be tense”, forecasting “constant politicking, attacks by Boko Haram… and policy stagnation” ─ and a possible outbreak of riot in northern Nigeria if Jonathan is re-elected.

Pontet wrote: “A Jonathan win could feed political unrest in the north, but makes it less likely that rebels in the Niger Delta re-ignite their attacks on oil infrastructure and personnel.” Nigeria’s political risk was upgraded from “negative” to “neutral” in what he described as “a positive net for political stability”.

Pontet said it was unlikely there would be fiscal or monetary policy “upheaval” and that the campaigns may not completely upend the investment climate or reverse Nigeria’s economic momentum. Eurasia Group has offices in New York, Washington, DC, London and Tokyo.

Bollocks, bollocks, bollocks and more bull-shyte!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

World’s largest political risk advisory, Eurasia Group, has released its forecast for the 2015 presidential election in Nigeria. [size=15pt]The report predicts the election outcome in favour of President Goodluck Jonathan[/size], stating that he would be re-elected with a landslide victory.

The whole world knows GEJ will win, y'all should wait for 2019 abeg.

There will be enough water from River Niger to quench the fire haba! Which kain people self think they have monopoly of violence. North always threatening the peace of Nigeria for selfish reasons.

Eurasia, the global political risk and consulting firm, has upgraded its short-term trajectory on Nigeria from negative to neutral, as it projects that President Goodluck Jonathan has a 75-percent chance of re-election in February 2015.

Eurasia says this is likely to put a floor on downside risks to the economy as the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) steadily consolidates under the president.

According to Philippe de Pontet, Africa director at New York-based Eurasia Group, “Nigeria will muddle through after all, without too much investment-relevant risk.”

Eurasia notes in a new report that the next six months in Nigeria will be tense, however.

“This will not resolve Nigeria’s structural vulnerabilities, but reduces the likelihood that the campaign season will completely upend the investment climate or reverse the country’s economic momentum. Over the next six months, we envision policy stagnation, but not sharp backsliding,” it further says.

A Jonathan win could feed political unrest in the north, but makes it less likely that rebels in the Niger Delta re-ignite their attacks on oil infrastructure and personnel, according to Eurasia.

“Political risks are already elevated so our neutral forecast starts from a high-risk baseline. Downside pressures that could push our trajectory back in a negative direction would include some combination of an oil shock (price or production), a disorderly response to Fed tapering, a new wave of defections from the PDP, a sharp escalation (and southern creep) by Boko Haram and a prolonged rise of sectarian or political violence,” the report says.

De Pontet states that the upgrade is based on Eurasia’s methodology for assessing political risk trajectory (six months out and two years out).

It is expected by Eurasia that the pre-election period will be marked by patronage politics, constant politicking, and attacks by Boko Haram, oil theft, and policy stagnation, but they are not expected to undermine national stability or derail Jonathan’s candidacy.

Furthermore, the risk of fiscal or monetary policy upheaval under Finance Minister Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala or CBN Governor Godwin Emefiele is relatively low, limiting downside risk.

Nigeria has in the last year seen dramatic events in the lead to the general elections that have spelt a political quandary at times for the two leading political parties, APC and PDP, as they both engaged in an intense contest of political checkmate.

APC emerged as a political game changer after scoring high profile defections from the PDP, soon after the controversial merger of its parties, ACN and CPC.

However, the political storm it raised has started to settle with the loss of an election in Ekiti State where it previously won the election, the impeachment of one of its governors Murtala Nyako of Adamawa State, a governor who defected from the PDP to the APC, on charges of misconduct and violation of the constitution, and as high profile defections from the opposition APC to the ruling PDP occurred.

Nuhu Ribadu, Nigeria’s former anti-corruption chief, Buba Mohammed Marwa, a former military governor of Lagos, and Ibrahim Shekarau, a one-time opposition governor of Kano State and founding member of APC, have all defected from APC to PDP.

Jonathan has faced criticism from the opposition and citizens for failing to check corruption, contain a raging Islamist insurgency in the country’s north and deliver on promises of economic reform. All these have hurt Jonathan’s standing in the run-up to the elections.

However, Ribadu’s defection has been seen as a boost for the PDP.

Ribadu “helps boost confidence in the PDP because it’s a demonstration of their current political strength”, says Thomas Horn Hansen, senior Africa analyst at London-based Control Risks.

“It’s a political coup for the PDP over the APC,” he says.

“Ribadu’s defection to the PDP is a blow to the opposition on multiple fronts,” de Pontet said. “It’s a setback for the APC’s self-promoted brand as a true alternative to the ruling party.”

YINKA ABRAHAM

http://businessdayonline.com/2014/08/eurasia-upgrades-nigeria-to-neutral-on-jonathan-re-election-prospects

Story for the gods

Let them burn then

Jona nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnmmmmmmmm

If dem like let dem burn roast kwa kwa self is der business

supporters of APC una de hear?

.Burn dem all

Which north?middle belt r behind GEJ.northern christains r behind GEJ.Let us wait n c cos 2015 will let d whole world know dat northern christains too have a voice.Must Nigeria have a muslim as President cos dat is d only reason deep inside y d north dnt want GEJ.I pity our northern christain so call elders that r use as puppets.Judgement day is close oo

have you see how Jonathan is wasting our money by sponsoring anti opposition party only a fool will accept this shit analysis rubbish A.P.C change

RockMaxi: There will be enough water from River Niger to quench the fire haba! Which kain people self think they have monopoly of violence. North always threatening the peace of Nigeria for selfish reasons.

There is a reward for such violence, ie, the virgin issue. Christians dont have such priviledges.

johnmartus: have you see how Jonathan is wasting our money by sponsoring anti opposition party only a fool will accept this shit analysis rubbish A.P.C change

Keep living in a dreamy disney island.

Na lie. Dem no get OIL.