barcanista:
That is a ridiculous claim my friend. Jonathan may win Rivers(not disputing) but He will not win by more than 70%. In fact the Wike issue may reduce his vote the more. As for EDO state PDP won't have an easy ride there, especially with a Fashola or Oshio on the ticket. APC will get a few vote from Delta but again PDP will win. however, the Plan is to encroach into Jonathan's territory while securing APC's North and Protecting SW. We all know SE, CRS, AKS and Bayelsa is PDP

This APC's north sef, does it include the middle belt?
Muslim/muslim ticket in Nigeria today is a political suicide of highest order. You asked what has changed since 1993? Let me tell you, religious riots and boko haram has happened and over 50,000 lives has been lost. Thats what has changed.
I just de pity una. PDP will be someplace wishing you are APC strategist.

onyengbu:

This APC's north sef, does it include the middle belt?
Muslim/muslim ticket in Nigeria today is a political suicide of highest order. You asked what has changed since 1993? Let me tell you, religious riots and boko haram has happened and over 50,000 lives has been lost. Thats what has changed.
I just de pity una. PDP will be someplace wishing you are APC strategist.

You don't know what you are saying, you assume that everyone thinks like you. Anyway the NC will be in APC's kitty next year

In 2011, Buhari didn't get the vote he required from the SW not because he's not loved but because he didn't align with the powers that be (Tinubu) fast forward to 2015 and you'll see Tinubu and Buhari in the same fold...
For those of you against a Muslim/Muslim ticket, is it performers or religious sentiments that governs your stance? I honestly think you guys dread Fashola for VP so y'all go on and on about the religion crap...
Question is; If GMB picks a xtian as his running, will it lead to corresponding increase in vote? I think no...

patrickmuf:
In 2011, Buhari didn't get the vote he required from the SW not because he's not loved but because he didn't align with the powers that be (Tinubu) fast forward to 2015 and you'll see Tinubu and Buhari in the same fold...
For those of you against a Muslim/Muslim ticket, is it performers or religious sentiments that governs your stance? I honestly think you guys dread Fashola for VP so y'all go on and on about the religion crap...
Question is; If GMB picks a xtian as his running, will it lead to corresponding increase in vote? I think no...

They know that with a Fashola in the ticket it is a done deal.

patrickmuf:
In 2011, Buhari didn't get the vote he required from the SW not because he's not loved but because he didn't align with the powers that be (Tinubu) fast forward to 2015 and you'll see Tinubu and Buhari in the same fold...
For those of you against a Muslim/Muslim ticket, is it performers or religious sentiments that governs your stance? I honestly think you guys dread Fashola for VP so y'all go on and on about the religion crap...
Question is; If GMB picks a xtian as his running, will it lead to corresponding increase in vote? I think no...

This shows the appeal of the Jonathan presidency.
While APC is appealing to primordial instincts of ethnicity and religion,
hoping on moslim Fulani and Yoruba votes,
PDP has warm reception outside the origins of their presidential nad vice presidential candidates.
Jonthan/Sambo receive rousing receptions in the SW, NC, SE, NE and NW.
Buhari/Tinubu can only campaign in enclaves outside Daura and Oshogbo (their ancestral homes).
They do not have popular appeal across the length and breadth of Nigeria.

barcanista:
I don't hate the Igbo


1. Bakare isn't a politician, CPC was NEW, AC was sweeping the guber level of SW and the AC didn't support the candidacy of CPC as the contested to remain relevant in National Politics. Hence, their choice for Ribadu and Adeola. CPC wasn't popular and had not political structure in SW in 2011.
1. Yorubas always voted their son, yet they didn't vote for Pastor Tunde Bakare?

2. Gani again ran under NCP, the party with little or no money and little or no structure. Beside, in politics, you make alliance with strong blocs to displace incumbents, coupled with the fact the the Yorubas queued behind Obj in 2003.

3. My friend I am talking of SS where I know that there was heavy rigging. Ojukwu lost in EVERY state in the SE in 2003 and 2007, so also Uzor Kalu in 2007

4. You are talking Nonsense. We are talking of Presidential you are talking Guber.

5. We are talking of Presidential poll. What concerns me with which party you vote as governor? even Kano voted CPC in Presidential and PDP in Guber.

6. As in 4 and 5

7. Rubbish

8. Keep your vote for Jonathan

9. GMB don't really "NEED" Igbo vote. We all know where the Igbo vote is heading

10. Whatever

I'm afraid, but you just don't make much sense really

1. If Bakare wasn't a politician, what was he doing as a vice presidential candidate? who is a politician?

2. ACN was mainly a Yoruba party as at 2011, Adeola is a Yoruba, why did GEJ won all but one Yoruba state?? Here your statement again " Yorubas have always voted for a Yoruba Ticket" Who determines a serious Yoruba candidate?

3. You are talking about presidential poll, but in your bid to eulogise Yorubas and discredit the Igbos, you stated "The Yorubas are known to punish mediocrity but will reward whoever makes them feel important. This they did in 2007 by electing en masse AC for the guber poll against PDP incumbents" Voting out the incumbents makes them sophisticated, but when the Igbos does the same, it is no of your business?

4. You stated that Yorubas always vote for people who make them feel important... why not extend the same to the Igbos?? I ask again, what prevented GMB from campaigning in any of the SE states in 2011? because we are not important to him, why then do you cry blood about the Igbo voting en masse for GEJ?

5. What was the structure of APGA in 2003 when Ojukwu ran under it? what was the structure of Labour party when Mimiko ran under it? You don't need to have structure, the criteria has always been, once a Yoruba is on the ticket, you get 100% vote of the Yorubas

6. Finally, why won't the SS support their son GEJ? or that criteria is only reserved for the Yorubas?

7. GMB doesn't need the Igbo votes, yet after the election, you people won't desist from insulting them for making their own decision. Any it is trademark of APC to insult people who didn't vote, just ask Ekiti people

tit:


This shows the appeal of the Jonathan presidency.
While APC is appealing to primordial instincts of ethnicity and religion,
hoping on moslim Fulani and Yoruba votes,
PDP has warm reception outside the origins of their presidential nad vice presidential candidates.
Jonthan/Sambo receive rousing receptions in the SW, NC, SE, NE and NW.
Buhari/Tinubu can only campaign in enclaves outside Daura and Oshogbo (their ancestral homes).
They do not have popular appeal across the length and breadth of Nigeria.

The problem is that they will always accuse GEJ when it was them (APC) who are really guilty of the crime. Remember it was GMB who told muslims to vote for muslim candidates only, now, barcanista has told us that Yoruba will only vote for their own. One wonders why APC is fully of hypocrisy

barcanista:
Bros Honestly, Timpre Sylva is HATED in Bayelsa State. Let us not even consider him. He won't win his ward. That guy was stoned satchet of Pure water by Bayelsans when he held sway. The rest you said I agree with you but Sylva.


Abeg no vex my boss, I hope you de fine?

I'm alright oo. Na one yeye antispambot do me strong thing. I'm back, guns blazing, like a cowboy from the 20's.

Some 'political analysts' are distorting facts here.

barcanista:
Bla bla bla...
1. The Muslim-Muslim Ticket won resoundedly in 1993. [size=20pt]What has changed between 1993 and Now? [/size] me tell you as at then the hostility was rife as just few years before the poll, IBB had signed Nigeria as islamic Country Member.

2. The crossed defies logic

3. Read my analysis again. The tribalism this time will work against Jonathan. It is like you don't follow trend. Jonathan's popularity is concentrated in SE, Cross River, Akwa Ibom and probably Bayelsa State. He is relatively UNPOPULAR in Rivers State. Should APC Present a Ijaw Guber Candidate and PDP present Wike in Rivers, the animosity against PDP in Rivers By the Riverine will be rife and will translate in the Presidential Poll out of protest vote. While APC may not clear Rivers State, with Amaechi on the team and PDP guber calculation flop, it will be a shared vote.

Lol if you have to ask then you are not ready to honestly analyze TODAYS political trend in Nigeria.

barcanista:
I don't hate the Igbo



3. My friend I am talking of SS where I know that there was heavy rigging. Ojukwu lost in EVERY state in the SE in 2003 and 2007, so also Uzor Kalu in 2007

4. You are talking Nonsense. We are talking of Presidential you are talking Guber.


9. GMB don't really "NEED" Igbo vote. We all know where the Igbo vote is heading

10. Whatever

3. According to you, when PDP won both SE and SS convincingly, it was because SS was massively rigged while SE wasn't rigged

Ojukwu didn't not lose in 2003, APGA won convincingly in all the SE states but the votes did not count. APGA was able to get Anambra through the Courts because the Govt. at the Centre was not happy with Ngige
Personally, I don't think much has changed as par Votes having any significant meaning

.

omenka:
I'm alright oo. Na one yeye antispambot do me strong thing. I'm back, guns blazing, like a cowboy from the 20's.

I am beginning to suspect that antispambot

datolee:


The problem is that they will always accuse GEJ when it was them (APC) who are really guilty of the crime. Remember it was GMB who told muslims to vote for muslim candidates only, now, barcanista has told us that Yoruba will only vote for their own. One wonders why APC is fully of hypocrisy

You should learn to comprehend.... I never said that.

when people gather just to condemn one section of the country because they believe they are superior the result is always negative. I respect Barcanista for his objective thoughts on this issue ( but I really don't know why he has a deep seated hatred for the igbo people). However, some Yoruba peeps on this thread started casting aspersions on the Igbo people just because a majority of Igbo people support Jonathan. please when making these arguments stick to the issues and stop abusing a whole tribe because of the presidential elections. APC and PDP are one and the same. The Igbos have good reasons to support Jonathan so also do the Yorubas have good reason to support Buhari. Everyone is looking for a way to remain relevant in the scheme of things. People forget that imo state in igbo heartland has an APC governor. so many igbos support APC. These ethnic and tribal politics won't move the country forward.

Back to the topic. I still think PDP will win again because the opposition have not tried to appeal to all Nigerians. They have made it an us versus them fight. in this case he who wields the most power will win. That's my opinion.

People remember in 2003, Tinubu and Bisi Akande campaigned for Obj based only on the fact that Obj was a Yoruba man. a word is enough for the wise.

barcanista:
You should learn to comprehend.... I never said that.

"the Yorubas have always been voting enmasse for a ticket involving their son"

"Yorubas have always voted for a Yoruba Ticket"

"Having a popular Yoruba in the ticket will swing the all important SW vote to APC"

Your words, not mine

datolee:

"the Yorubas have always been voting enmasse for a ticket involving their son"
"Yorubas have always voted for a Yoruba Ticket"
"Having a popular Yoruba in the ticket will swing the all important SW vote to APC"
Your words, not mine

Those are my words, not this

datolee:


The problem is that they will always accuse GEJ when it was them (APC) who are really guilty of the crime. Remember it was GMB who told muslims to vote for muslim candidates only, now, barcanista has told us that Yoruba will only vote for their own. One wonders why APC is fully of hypocrisy

I never used the word "ONLY", and my words does not connote ONLY.

BlackTechnology:




The problem with you is that you don't think deeply


The North and West have the highest number of non indigenes due to lopsided allocation of FG resources during the military era.


So not everyone living in Kano is an indigene of kano

GBAM ............YOU HIT THE NAIL THEY HAVE BEEN HOPING NO ONE WILL NOTICE.
They think the large population of kabo ,sokoto borno,(padded as they are) and even Lagos and the rest of the south west is exclusively indigenous.....the nerve of this people....
Kano has the highest population of non indigenes in the entire north possibly equal,if not more than that of the indigenous population
Kaduna is split in half no need going into long talks
Niger has a third or a fourth of the indigenous population rooting for Gej
Lets not talk about Plateau we know how the roll
Nassarawa is split in half possibly more for Gej
Lets not talk about benue
Taraba is split in half
Kogi is split in half
Most of the other northen states will still give Gej a substantial portion of the vote
Now lets talk about the core APC south west:I am amused when you guys talk about securing the south west vote just so you know,Lagos(yes the Lagos you so rant and masturbate over )will in all probability give Gej two thirds of the vote at worst half.
I do not need to speak for ekiti,even OSUN(prepare to be shocked) or ondo and ogun.
You think even those states have only indigenous population abi(?). WAKE UP this is 2014 Nigeria is a little more integrated than that if anything the civil war they(the south west and the north) fought for worked too well(when the war ended going up north and west was the fastest means of recovery in the post war era hence the massive populations of southerners (south east ,and south south) in places other than their home lands).

Only a foolish man will believe that APC can win Lagos with or without fashola as VP. Don't underestimate the population of other southerners in Lagos. Yoruba alone is not up to 50% in Lagos.

Double Post

munky:
when people gather just to condemn one section of the country because they believe they are superior the result is always negative. I respect Barcanista for his objective thoughts on this issue. However, some Yoruba peeps on this thread started casting aspersions on the Igbo people just because a majority of Igbo people support Jonathan. please when making these arguments stick to the issues and stop abusing a whole tribe because of the presidential elections. APC and PDP are one and the same. The Igbos have good reasons to support Jonathan so also do the Yorubas have good reason to support Buhari. Everyone is looking for a way to remain relevant in the scheme of things. People forget that imo state in igbo heartland has an APC governor. so many igbos support APC. These ethnic and tribal politics won't move the country forward.

Back to the topic. I still think PDP will win again because the opposition have not tried to appeal to all Nigerians. They have made it an us versus them fight. in this case he who wields the most power will win. That's my opinion.

People remember in 2003, Tinubu and Bisi Akande campaigned for Obj based only on the fact that Obj was a Yoruba man. a word is enough for the wise.

Politics is about interest. I would have been the Chief Campaigner of Jonathan if his policies protect the interest of the Ijaw people and Nigeria in general. However, there is a difference between supporting based on interest and based on tribalism and bigotry.
For instance, in the forthcoming guber poll in Rivers State, I am behind the candidacy of either of Dagogo Peterside or Hon Tonye Princewill both Ijaws and to an extent Sen George Sekibo. My support for them is first, their credibility and I believe they have the potentials to bring development to the Riverine Area(My Primary constituency) as well as the entire Rivers State.
However, in 2011, I(and majority riverine people) was behind the candidacy of Hon Rotimi Amaechi(from upland) ahead of Dr. Abiye Sekibo, a Riverine man from my own clan. It was because I saw that Sekibo have nothing to offer but mediocrity and trouble unlike Amaechi that performed in my town more than any governor in history(including Ada George from my town). I will be tribalistic to support a mediocre just because he's my tribesman when I know that he is a BIG flop.

@OBJ 2003: Obj claimed in 2003 that his first term was aimed at redeeming our image, clearing our debt and putting mechanism in place to fix things. He claimed that 2003 will be total transformation-He ended up a flop though. If he had failed woefully in his first term, trust me he wouldn't have won SW.

Good write up and calculation. As a south- south person, APC's best bet is to field a south westerner as Buhari's running mate.

barcanista:
Politics is about interest. I would have been the Chief Campaigner of Jonathan if his policies protect the interest of the Ijaw people and Nigeria in general. However, there is a difference between supporting based on interest and based on tribalism and bigotry.
For instance, in the forthcoming guber poll in Rivers State, I am behind the candidacy of either of Dagogo Peterside or Hon Tonye Princewill both Ijaws and to an extent Sen George Sekibo. My support for them is first, their credibility and I believe they have the potentials to bring development to the Riverine Area(My Primary constituency) as well as the entire Rivers State.
However, in 2011, I(and majority riverine people) was behind the candidacy of Hon Rotimi Amaechi(from upland) ahead of Dr. Abiye Sekibo, a Riverine man from my own clan. It was because I saw that Sekibo have nothing to offer but mediocrity and trouble unlike Amaechi that performed in my town more than any governor in history(including Ada George from my town). I will be tribalistic to support a mediocre just because he's my tribesman when I know that he is a BIG flop.

@OBJ 2003: Obj claimed in 2003 that his first term was aimed at redeeming our image, clearing our debt and putting mechanism in place to fix things. He claimed that 2003 will be total transformation-He ended up a flop though. If he had failed woefully in his first term, trust me he wouldn't have won SW.

Ijaw my asss. Fulani fool claiming Ijaw since the inception of nairaland

Another lame analysis standing logic on its head. Yorubas vote their sons and when reminded of 2011, the dance steps changed to Bakare and Adeola not being politicians bla, bla, bla. Is the premise no longer that Yorubas vote their sons? Pray! Are Bakare and Adeola Ibibio?


Don't make categorical statements when you don't understand logic.



And then he conveniently forgot that ABIMBOLA DAVIDS, a Yoruba went to court to scuttle June 12 and not Arthur Nzeribe. Cherry picking history! So much for an analyst.

Adindupeter:
Ijaw my ass. Fulani fool claiming Ijaw since the inception of nairaland

I thought I was Yoruba o. Anyway, I will become a Taiwanese very soon

So why didn't Buhari win in 2011 that he fielded a popular yoruba man in the person of Tunde Bakare? Or Nuhu Ribadu that ran with Fola Adeola.

u are the devils incarnate, why didnt u talked about 2011 that he choosed a popular yoruba man as a vp?
why dont u tell us dat gani also contested but failed?

No matter who Buhari choose as running mate it's

GEJ till 2019

barcanista:

In 2003, it was majorly between Obj and Buhari. Obj had to make a Pact with AD to support him for President and they will be supported for Governor, NASS and co. AD openly campaigned for Obj's PDP in 2003(which also cost AD governors except the smart Tinubu). If not, Obj would have lost woefully in 2003

This clearly shows that you do not understand Nigerian politics.
Obasanjo would still have won 2003 with ADEQUATE (even if not landslide) south west votes, given that his main opponent was clueless Buhari.

The main reason we voted for GEJ in 2011 presidential elections in the SW was that, we were sympatheric towards him, and we fell for his 'i dnt av a shoe' story, another major factor was that, nobody knew the likes of fola adeolu and bakare as politicians, infact, they are not popular, but now, every permutations have changed, GEJ is a complete failure, and the APC is more formidable, with a popular yoruba VP, whether muslim or xtian, the people here don't care, WE ARE VOTING ANYTHING APC!!!

akins56:
The main reason we voted for GEJ in 2011 presidential elections in the SW was that, we were sympatheric towards him, and we fell for his 'i dnt av a shoe' story,

Do not make yourself seem stupid!
This is not the reason the man in the street in Abeokuta voted for President Jonathan.
Infacti, in 2015, President Jonathan will get twice the number of votes he got from the SW in 2011.

We, PDP, is going to do operation "KKB". You heard it from me.
The ground troops are being marshalled as I write and will sooon be deployed!
Ha!
It is going to be sweet.

Stealing is not kworruption!
Stealing is simple!!
Kworruption is complex!!!

1) It is only a foolish man will believe that the yorubas are upto 40% of Lagos state population.

2) it is only a foolish man will believe that yorubas are upto 60% of Ogun state population

3) it is only a foolish man that will believe that hausas are more than 50% of Kano state population.

Fact: for every cities in Nigeria, aside the indegene, the second most populous group is the Igbos.

Onye Barca aka Barcanista, Igbos wont vote for your lord and master Buhari.
So stop hating and face the bitter truth.

#unfollowuselessanalyst....