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How The APC Aspirants Stand Across The States by Nobody: 5:39pm On Dec 02, 2014 |
The equation is though fluid, understanding how the presidential hopefuls in the All Progressives Congress stand in the different states provides a fair knowledge of their chances at the December 10 national convention. Olawale Olaleye writes Eight days from now, the All Progressives Congress (APC) would be done with its national convention. A presidential standard-bearer is expected to emerge. But it is not going to be as easy. To cross the lines are some critical hurdles of both human and strategy factors. Already shared with a degree of certainty are the 14 APC states with the governors identifying, albeit subtly, with their preferred aspirants. This, in effect, means the direction the delegates from such states would head is sealed. But these 14 states are not going to play as much a pivotal role as the 22 non-APC states now regarded as the battleground states. How well each of the aspirants is able to connect with the delegates from these states and harvest the votes thereof will obviously determine who eventually emerges the presidential candidate of the APC. Basically, there are four candidates on the card but the race appears to be strictly a two-horse race: between a former Head of State, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari, and former vice-president, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar. The two others are the Kano State Governor, Alhaji Rabiu Kwankwaso, and the publisher of Leadership Newspapers, Sam Ndah-Isaiah. Below is a forecast on how the delegates may vote across the 36 states for their choice aspirants. It is in no particular order. The South-south Delta: The terrain here is a leveller and so, voting here may be too close to call. Although the battle here is a two-horse race, Atiku appears to have made some inroads into Delta and may come out very strong; Buhari will be able to neutralise such a hold through the influence of one of his strongest backers, Governor Rotimi Amaechi of Rivers State. •Too close to call Edo: Here, the odds are clearly in favour of Buhari, however with an equally strong Atiku presence. Voting here may likely go 60:40 in favour of Buhari. •The odds favour Buhari Cross River: This is purely a pro-Atiku turf with a voting pattern in the region of 70-30 in favour of the former number two citizen. The bit that Buhari may garner here is also as a result of Amaechi’s influence being a South- south region. •The odd favour Atiku Rivers: The race here is best described as a no contest duel. It is Buhari all the way and at the very best, it would be 90:10 in favour of the former Head of State. Atiku's presence here is very weak and understandably so because of the Amaechi factor. •The odd favour Buhari Akwa Ibom: Although Buhari appears to have an upper hand here, it can't be anything above a 60:40 ratio. Some of the recent developments in the state APC, especially the defection of the former Secretary to the State Government, Umana Okon Umana, appear to have altered the equation to an extent. •The odd favour Buhari |
Re: How The APC Aspirants Stand Across The States by Nobody: 5:41pm On Dec 02, 2014 |
The South-east Imo: The presence of Governor Rochas Okorocha of the state will help boost the chances of Atiku, being a close ally. It however stands at a 60-40 sharing. One factor that seems to give Atiku an edge here is religion. And for the records, Okorocha is not contesting for the APC presidential ticket. •The odd favour Atiku Enugu: Voting here also presents a 60:40 ratio with religion still a factor. Atiku holds the ace here. •The odd favour Atiku Anambra: Nothing significantly changes here too as the whole of South-east may toe the same line. Religion is also present here. It will go the way of Atiku. •The odd favour Atiku Abia: The God's own state as Abia otherwise is called is also likely to favour Atiku with a 60:40 ratio. It is still a factor of religion. •The odd favour Atiku Ebonyi: The last of the South-east states is not going to differ significantly. Atiku enjoys an upper hand here too. No thanks to religion. It is a 60:40 show in favour of Atiku. •The odd favour Atiku Did the writer forget Rochas is in the race? |
Re: How The APC Aspirants Stand Across The States by Nobody: 5:43pm On Dec 02, 2014 |
The South-west Lagos: It is too close to call but may go the way of Buhari with a 60:40 sharing. •The odd favour Buhari Ogun: Buhari is the issue here. Ogun may vote 70:30 in his favour. •The odd favour Buhari Oyo: Although with a strong Atiku presence, Buhari will clean up votes here, however, to the ratio of 60:40 •The odd favour Buhari Osun: Votes here will be hotly contested but with a slight Buhari edge. It is 60:40. •The odd favour Buhari Ekiti: The battle for votes here will elicit interest and the turnout is most likely to be too close to call with a 50:50 voting share. •Too close to call Ondo: As it is in Ekiti, Ondo looks like another 50:50 match between the two front runners. •Too close to call |
Re: How The APC Aspirants Stand Across The States by Nobody: 5:44pm On Dec 02, 2014 |
The North-west Kano: It is Kwankwaso all the way. While the governor could garner some 70 per cent votes, the rest will be shared amongst other contenders. •The odd favour Kwankwaso Kaduna: Buhari is the aspirant to beat here with some 70 per cent votes while other candidates may struggle with the remaining 30 per cent. •The odd favour Buhari Jigawa: Delegates here are sympathetic to Buhari. Voting could be 60:40 in his favour. •The odd favour Buhari Sokoto: Battle for delegates' votes here will be tough as both Buhari and Atiku have a neck-and-neck strength which could produce a 50:50 voting outcome. •Too close to call Kebbi: As it is likely to play out in Sokoto so will it in Kebbi. It is a 50:50 game. •Too close to call Zamfara: Whilst the battle for votes here will be tough, Buhari has an edge that could produce a 60:40 voting ratio in favour of the former Head of State. •The odd favour Buhari Katsina: There is passionate home advantage here and the voting is Buhari all the way. It’s a no contest zone. •The odd favour Buhari |
Re: How The APC Aspirants Stand Across The States by LouisVanGaal(m): 5:44pm On Dec 02, 2014 |
Following...it's going to be keenly contested as you said! |
Re: How The APC Aspirants Stand Across The States by Nobody: 5:45pm On Dec 02, 2014 |
The North-east Borno: Buhari is strong here with an impressionable Atiku presence. It is 60:40 in Buhari’s favour. •The odd favour Buhari Yobe: Here, Buhari has a strong footing that will be evident in the voting pattern. He is likely to poll over 60 per cent of total votes. •The odd favour Buhari Gombe: Delegates here are for Atiku with a not-too-bad outing for Buhari. Say another 70:30 sharing in Atiku’s favour. •The odd favour Atiku Adamawa: Here is a no-go-area for Buhari. Atiku clearly has the upper hand being his home state, so the home advantage will be strong for Atiku. •The odd favour Atiku Taraba: Delegates here may have signed up for Atiku, perhaps in the region of 60:40. •The odd favour Atiku Bauchi: Chances are that Buhari will pull his weight here, albeit with some 60:40 voting pattern. •The odd favour Buhari |
Re: How The APC Aspirants Stand Across The States by Nobody: 5:46pm On Dec 02, 2014 |
The North-central Kogi: Votes here will be free for all with a plausible 50-50 sharing between Buhari and Atiku •Too close to call Kwara: Buhari will clean up the Kwara votes because of the influence of the former governor, Bukola Saraki, who is believed to be sympathetic to the Buhari cause. •The odd favour Buhari Niger: Delegates in Niger may tilt in the direction of Buhari, even though Atiku is poised to fight hard. This is Nda-Isaiah’s home state, and may muzzle some votes given his supposed home advantage. •The odd favour Buhari Plateau: Atiku is on the prowl here and is sure to hold sway. Delegates will boost his chances here over and above that of Buhari. •The odd favour Atiku Benue: The battle in Benue State promises to throw up some good challenge, however with a 60-40 voting in favour of Buhari. •The odd favour Buhari Nasarawa: Indications are that delegates here have the backing of Buhari, but not without some good showing by Atiku. •The odd favour Buhari |
Re: How The APC Aspirants Stand Across The States by Nobody: 5:48pm On Dec 02, 2014 |
www.thisdaylive.com/articles/how-the-apc-aspirants-stand-across-the-states/195583/ Interesting analysis, the apc primaries excites me, even though i had a nightmare that Atiku won yesterday. Btw when did i start dreaming about politicians choi. 5 Likes |
Re: How The APC Aspirants Stand Across The States by Nobody: 5:49pm On Dec 02, 2014 |
Kano: It is Kwankwaso all the way. While the governorI strongly disagree ma. Kano Politicians and even Government officials are loyal to Buhari FIRST before Kwankwaso. A Buhari singlehandedly sent Kwankwaso packing in 2003, and a Buhari endorsement returned Kwankwaso in 2011. 5 Likes |
Re: How The APC Aspirants Stand Across The States by Nobody: 5:51pm On Dec 02, 2014 |
barcanista Gbawe, kel4soft, neenar, , descartes, egift, arewafederation, Egbagirl, donroxy, Sweetlemon , donphilopus, BEREM, desola , demdem , lakpalakpa , whitecat007 , , lakpalakpa, omenka, ShehuAba , omenka , Rawani, tribaleast kolaaderin soroptimist , and all Omexonomy, jmaine, mikeansy, Firefire, Mynd44, , nduchucks, lacasa, baccaspace, Omerta sincere9gerian, firefire, Phockphockman, ilugunboy, naptu2, aussie, keneking, donmarti, keneking, Ngwakwe Dannyset, Evathyst |
Re: How The APC Aspirants Stand Across The States by Nobody: 5:52pm On Dec 02, 2014 |
barcanista:Very true. |
Re: How The APC Aspirants Stand Across The States by Clerverly: 5:52pm On Dec 02, 2014 |
Obiagelli: Go back to the dream and finish it! 2 Likes |
Re: How The APC Aspirants Stand Across The States by Nobody: 5:52pm On Dec 02, 2014 |
Adamawa: Here is a no-go-area for Buhari. Atiku clearlyAgain, I beg to disagree. Buhari is more popular in Adamawa than Atiku. In fact, Atiku's popularity is dependent on variables. Recall that Atiku came a distant 3rd in 2007 election in Adamawa state, with Buhari clinching first and Yaradua second. Atiku could not even help AC in 2007 retain Adamawa despite having a loyal incumbent Governor. Atiku lost woefully to President Jonathan in Adamawa state during the 2011 PDP Primaries. 1 Like |
Re: How The APC Aspirants Stand Across The States by Goddex: 5:56pm On Dec 02, 2014 |
barcanista: Some of you can be so stewpidly senseless atimes. 1) Are you saying the states deligates whom Kwankwaso installed will now vote for Buhari without Kwankwaso's node? 2) Are you telling us that Buhari endorsed Kwankwaso in 2011 at the expense of his CPC candidate whom he campaigned vigorously for? 3 Likes |
Re: How The APC Aspirants Stand Across The States by Nobody: 5:56pm On Dec 02, 2014 |
Ekiti: The battle for votes here will elicit interest and theBoth states APC are loyal to Bola Tinubu, who is loyal to Buhari Structure. I can't imagine any candidate "sharing" up to 50% of votes here with Buhari. Nice Analysis though not perfect, Atiku's only hope is the SE, though it isn't a guarantee. Sincerely, Atiku is one of the richest but the most overrated politician in Nigeria |
Re: How The APC Aspirants Stand Across The States by Nobody: 5:56pm On Dec 02, 2014 |
Anambra: Nothing significantly changes here too as the whole of South-east may toe the same line. Religion is Ngige controls anambra, Ngige has been travelling with Buhari to meet delegates. 1 Like |
Re: How The APC Aspirants Stand Across The States by Nobody: 5:57pm On Dec 02, 2014 |
Goddex:How much do you know of North-West Politics? 1 Like |
Re: How The APC Aspirants Stand Across The States by Nobody: 5:57pm On Dec 02, 2014 |
Clerverly: |
Re: How The APC Aspirants Stand Across The States by Clerverly: 5:57pm On Dec 02, 2014 |
barcanista: And the south West delegates are going to vote for Buhari en block: say 80:20 in favour of Buhari! The only place Atiku would convincingly is south east but then when you add up the number of delegates from each zone, your guess would be good as mine! Sai Buhari! 1 Like |
Re: How The APC Aspirants Stand Across The States by Nobody: 5:58pm On Dec 02, 2014 |
Obiagelli:The Writer I suppose did not do enough analysis. I know that APC structure under Dr. Chris Nwabueze Ngige is working in tandem with Governor Fashola and Tinubu, who in turn are working for the emergence of Buhari. |
Re: How The APC Aspirants Stand Across The States by gratieao: 5:59pm On Dec 02, 2014 |
Buhari will win every boko haram states 2 Likes |
Re: How The APC Aspirants Stand Across The States by Nobody: 6:00pm On Dec 02, 2014 |
Interesting topic. Buhari all the way!!! |
Re: How The APC Aspirants Stand Across The States by Nobody: 6:01pm On Dec 02, 2014 |
Clerverly:This is simple. As far as NE, NW, NC, SW and SS delegates are concerned, it is Sai Buhari. Even in that SE Anambra will go to Buhari Team. I don't know who controls Ebonyi, Enugu and Abia structures of APC, but as for Imo... Rochas may favor his padi Atiku |
Re: How The APC Aspirants Stand Across The States by youngalex(m): 6:01pm On Dec 02, 2014 |
@ Obiagelli u didn't factor in the influence of money in the voting process,most delegates know théy need to effectively utilize this oppurtunity at least to improve on their pocket infrastructure..I sincerely advise your man to get loan to finance this primaries cos am sure the former No.2 man will dole out pounds,euros and dollars...never underestimate the power of money...IN POLiTICS THERE IS NO MORALITY IF YOU WANT MORALITY GO tO CHURCH..ROTIMI 5 Likes |
Re: How The APC Aspirants Stand Across The States by Nobody: 6:02pm On Dec 02, 2014 |
Obiagelli: Enugu,Anambra and Ebonyi will go to Gen Buhari......More so Anambra where Dr Chris Ngige( a loyalist of Buhari) has the party structure in his short trouser The same is applicable to Ebonyi being presently controlled by Dr Ogbonnaya Onu,another Buhari-leaning APC National Leader |
Re: How The APC Aspirants Stand Across The States by Nobody: 6:02pm On Dec 02, 2014 |
From this article Buhari = 18 states Atiku = 10 states I still believe buhari will do better. |
Re: How The APC Aspirants Stand Across The States by Nobody: 6:04pm On Dec 02, 2014 |
barcanista: You should know where thisday's sympathy lies its nice looking at this analysis, i wish our democracy continues to grow. |
Re: How The APC Aspirants Stand Across The States by Nobody: 6:05pm On Dec 02, 2014 |
youngalex:Voting is not open, money is less significant. |
Re: How The APC Aspirants Stand Across The States by Nobody: 6:07pm On Dec 02, 2014 |
soroptimist: You are absolutely correct. The writer is quite naive. |
Re: How The APC Aspirants Stand Across The States by Clerverly: 6:08pm On Dec 02, 2014 |
soroptimist: But they can easily be influenced! One of the delegates from Ebonyi is my friend, I know what he told me yesterday! However, Ogbonnaya Onu( Okaa Omee 1) is hell bent on delivery the state to his bossom friend, General Buhari! |
Re: How The APC Aspirants Stand Across The States by Nobody: 6:10pm On Dec 02, 2014 |
barcanista:The recent governorship primaries held in adamawa backs your point, Atiku's candidate was defeated. Though i don't know where Nyako stands |
Re: How The APC Aspirants Stand Across The States by GEJTILL2019(m): 6:10pm On Dec 02, 2014 |
trash.....make them adopt GEJ. 3 Likes |
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