The Peoples Democratic Party and
the All Progressives congress will
definitely be at each other’s neck in
what promises to be a tight
electioneering year.
LEADERSHIP correspondents
explore the strengths and
weaknesses of candidates across
the geo-political regions of Nigeria
and below are their findings:
North East Region
BAUCHI
In Bauchi, the contest for the state’s
number one seat is between
Barrister Muhammed Abubakar , a
former attorney general and
commissioner for justice and Hon.
Muhammed Awwal Jatau, a serving
House of Representatives member.
Barrister Abubakar is the candidate
of the opposition APC, while Hon
Jato is the ruling PDP candidate,
propped up by Governor Yuguda as
the last minute ‘dark horse’.
Political analysts say that the battle
is, for now, too close to call because
the two opposing candidates have
their mutual strengths and
weaknesses, even though
unconfirmed rumours have it that
they both share a common
godfather in Governor Yuguda.
YOBE
The battle for the soul of
Government House Damaturu is
between the incumbent Governor
Ibrahim Gaidam of the ruling APC
and the PDP’s former minister of
police affairs, Alhaji Adamu Maina
Waziri.
The chances for Governor Gaidam
are brighter in the sense that he is
an incumbent and from the APC.
The APC metamorphosed from the
defunct All Nigeria Peoples Party
(ANPP) and is well rooted and a
household political party in the
state. Aside his incumbency factor
which would obviously play a
greater role in his expected victory,
Gaidam’s supporters say they are
feeling very comfortable with the
controversy rocking the emergence
of Adamu Waziri as the party’s flag
bearer, because the then ANPP had
always recorded victories against
him each time he got the party’s
ticket.
TARABA
Mr Darius Ishaku, a former minister
for Niger-Delta ministry, will be
slugging it out as PDP’s anointed
candidate with Senator Aisha
Jummai Alhassan, a female
candidate of the opposition APC.
Senator Alhassan, an astute
grassroots politician and respected
mobilizer got the APC ticket to be
the first woman that would ever
aspire to lead the state as governor.
Those who know her very well say
she has both the public goodwill
and the financial war-chest to
challenge the PDP incumbency to a
stand-still. In fact, her chance is
even brighter with the ongoing
internal crisis heralding the ruling
PDP, especially over the selection of
candidates to field various elective
offices.
Her undoing is that she may face
challenges of the people’s
reservation on making a female the
governor of a state in a northern
state like Taraba. She also may
have to contend with the issue of
religious politics that is deeply
rooted in Taraba – a state where
only the majority Christians have
ruled since its creation more than
two decades ago. But analys feel
that if she could key into the
ongoing discontent that is rocking
the PDP in the state, and play her
cards well, she could pull a surprise
to win the governorship.
For Darius Ishaku, his strength is
the backing of the Taraba
kingmaker and money bag, General
Theophilus Yakubu Danjuma, who,
since the inception of the state, has
been credited for deciding who
becomes what politically in Taraba.
ADAMAWA
The race for the Dougirei
Government House Yola ahead of
the 2015 general elections promises
to be interesting as it a battle
between two giants, namely
Mallam Nuhu Ribadu who emerged
the standard flagbearer of the
Peoples Democratic Party and
Senator Muhammadu Umaru
Jibrilla Bindow, the candidate of the
APC.
The race will be a tug of war
between a party with the power of
incumbency at its beck and call and
an unassuming opposition political
party that seems set to capitalise
on some of the pitfalls of the ruling
party to wrest power from it.
The standard bearer of the PDP,
Mallam Nuhu Ribadu a retired AIG
in the Nigeria Police and a lawyer,
who was the former anti corruption
czar is a man that has cut a niche
for himself especially when he
superintended the Economic and
Financial Crimes Commission
(EFCC) during Obasanjo’s era.
BORNO
In Borno State, incumbent Governor
Kashim Shettima, who emerged as
the sole candidate of the party will
be facing PDP’s candidate, Alhaji
Gambo Lawan, a one-time
chairman of Warri Refinery and
founding member of PDP in Borno
State.
Governor Shettima has two things
that may turn out to favour his
chance in the coming election –
sympathy from the citizenry who
appreciate his conduct and kind
disposition throughout the three
years of Boko Haram insurgency;
and his strong presence as an
incumbent. Shettima also has the
financial war-chest to prosecute his
continuation of stay in the
Government House, Maiduguri, in
spite the concerns that the federal
government might deploy its might
to fight him.
His increasing sense of generosity
to groups, individuals and
associations flocking around him
especially in recent time also
double his chances.
South East Region
ENUGU
The PDP Enugu State gubernatorial
primaries held on December 8,
2014, produced four candidates.
They are Senator Ayogu Eze, Hon.
Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi, Dr. Samuel
Maduka Onyishi, and Prof. Onyeke
Onyeke.
Given the fact that Ugwuanyi had
prior to the primaries being
endorsed by the state chapter of the
party as well as the state
government, he is very likely to fly
the party’s flag in the state at the
end of the day.
He hails from Enugu north
senatorial district. The party had
earlier zoned the PDP gubernatorial
ticket to this senatorial district. The
other three contenders to the
governorship seat , also come from
the same senatorial zone.
Ugwuanyi’s strength stems from
the fact that he is being sponsored
by the incumbent government of
Sullivan Chime. Beyond that he is
said to be generous and his
acceptance cuts across the three
senatorial districts of the state. He
may likely win the next
governorship election if he finally
gets the nod of the party’s national
secretariat to fly the party’s flag.
He is, however, said to be weak in
firmness and there is ample fear
that some political stakeholders
may take advantage of his soft
disposition to cage him if elected
governor,
His opponent in the APC, Barrister
Okey Ezea hails from the same
Nsukka senatorial zone. He is a
shipping magnet and therefore has
the wherewithal to prosecute his
electioneering campaign. He has
strength of character and very
focused.
EBONYI
With the emergence of Ebonyi State
deputy governor and former
chairman of the PDP in the state,
Chief Dave Umahi, as the candidate
of the PDP and the election of the
pioneer speaker of Ebonyi State
House of Assembly and the senator
that represented Ebonyi Central
Senatorial zone, Chief Juluis Ali
Ucha, as the candidate of the All
Progressives Congress in the state,
the stage is now set for the all
expected battle of who occupies the
Ebonyi State government house and
drive the ship of the state for the
next 4 years. Some political
analysts have opined that the race
to the government house would not
be business as usual as the three
major contenders all come from the
different senatorial zones of the
state.
Aside Senator Ucha and Chief Dave
Umahi, business mogul and major
financier of the PDP before his
defection to the Labour Party with
the support of the state government
apparatus, Chief Edward Nkwegu is
another major contender to the
race. While Senator Ucha is from
the Ebonyi central zone, the same
zone with Governor Martin Elechi,
Chief Edward Nkwegu is from
Ebonyi north zone while Chief
Umahi is from Ebonyi south zone.
Nevertheless, the thinking is that
the ruling PDP at the federal level
might use unconventional means to
make Umahi governor. But if the
votes were to count, he might not
make it to the Government House.
On his part, Senator Ucha of the
APC is loved, adored and
worshipped by his people,
especially those from the Ezza
nation. His chances are very bright.
However, it would be a miracle if he
makes it to the Government House
through the APC – a party known to
be very obscure in the state.
IMO
Hon. Emeka Ihedioha is the PDP
governorship candidate in Imo
state. He hails from Owerri
senatorial zone which by the last
census figure has the highest
population when compared with the
remaining two senatorial zones –
Orlu and Okigwe.
Interestingly, his supporters cut
across the three senatorial zones,
and they are expected to vote
massively for him in the next
general election with his
empowerment of over 30 persons in
the state with appointments as
board chairmen of federal
government agencies.
The APC is not wholly accepted in
Imo State but Governor Okorocha is
a powerful force. The All
Progressives Grand Alliance
(APGA), that would have challenged
PDP has a lot of litigations in court
over its leadership. This has been
so since the incumbent governor,
Rochas Okorocha defected from
APGA to APC.
South South Region
DELTA
With the emergence of Senator
Ifeanyi Okowa, a serving senator
representing Delta North senatorial
district as the flag bearer of the
PDP, after a fierce governorship
primaries held recently in Asaba, in
spite of high wired political gang up
and manoeuvres by the incumbent
governor Dr Emmanuel Uduaghan
to change the tide against the
former secretary to the Delta state
government, he proved his mettle
as a political giant to defeat other
aspirants. In the 2006 governorship
primaries he was said to be
coasting home to victory but was
prevailed upon by Ibori’s political
forces to allow the present governor
(Uduaghan) to contest the
governorship then. Ibori and
Uduaghan are said to be cousins.
Unconfirmed reports have it that the
former governor of Delta State,
James Ibori, who is serving a jail
sentence over corruption charges in
a UK prison may have given
directives to his loyalists to work for
the emergence of Okowa.
For APC, and its candidate,
Olorogun Emerhor, it is going to be
a hard battle against the PDP’s
Senator Ifeanyi Okowa, owing to a
combination of key factors.
But Olorogun is from the Urhobo, an
ethnic group which unarguably
controls the largest population in
Delta Central.
RIVERS
It was no surprise that the former
minister of Education, Chief
Nyesom Wike emerged as the
governorship candidate of the PDP
in Rivers state amid huge protest
from other contenders.
However, Amaechi’s defection has
dealt a fatal blow to the PDP in the
state, with many pitching tent with
the APC. Even alleged attempt, by
the presidency to impeach the
governor with the anti-Amaechi
lawmakers, failed. It remains a
herculean task for Wike to win the
Rivers governorship election in 2015
owing to the fact that he hails from
the same ethnic extraction with
Amaechi.
Peterside Dakuku is the
governorship candidate of the APC
in Rivers State and a trusted ally of
Amaechi. Dakuku’s emergence is
said to have been hailed by the
minority tribe who in the last 16
years have not had the opportunity
to produce a governor for the state.
South West
LAGOS
Lagos State politics over the years
is reputed for its eccentric nature,
especially now that the
governorship race which is hugely
between the candidate of the APC,
Mr. Akinwunmi Ambode and the
PDP’s candidate, Mr. Jimi , are both
fresh contestants for the position.
Ambode, apart from contesting
under the platform of the ruling
party, has the backing and
endorsements of the main
stakeholders in the Lagos project.
Even before he emerged as APC
candidate in the state , the Oba of
Lagos, Rilwanu Akiolu, endorse
Ambode’s candidature to contest
the governorship seat of the state.
At another public function, he stated
it is the prayer of everyone that PDP
should not rule the state.
Agbaje’s choice as PDP candidate
is not a fluke but an outcome of an
independent survey carried out by
both the national and state
leadership of the party. He was not
only widely adjudged as the best
man for the job but someone
charismatic enough to give the
ruling party in the state a good
fight.
OYO
Following the gubernatorial
primaries of both the APC and the
PDP the incumbent Oyo State
governor, Senator Abiola Ajimobi
and former Senate Leader, Senator
Teslim Folarin have emerged as
flag bearers of their respective
parties for the 2015 governorship
election in the state.
Apart from the power of
incumbency, Ajimobi would be
relying so much on the
achievements recorded by his
administration in the last three and
half years which cut across all
sectors.
His greatest achievement can be
seen in the area of security and
clean environment which have
endeared the people of the state to
his administration.
Before the advent of his
administration, hardly could
resident of the state sleep with their
two eyes closed.
North Central
KWARA
In Kwara state, the incumbent
Governor Abdulfatah Ahmed is the
standard flagbearer of the APC
while Senator Simeon Ajibola will
flag the banner of the PDP in next
year’s governorship election in the
state.
Interestingly, the two candidates are
from Kwara south district. While
Ahmed is of the most populous
Igbomina stock, Ajibola is of Ekiti
stock.
The chances of Ahmed winning the
election are very high. As the sitting
governor, he has the natural
advantage of incumbency with the
machinery of government at his
disposal. He definitely has the
capacity to deploy the required
resources apart from having a
formidable structure under which he
is contesting.
NASARAWA
In Nasarawa State, the contest
between Governor Umaru Tanko
Almakura of the APC and his
opponent of the Peoples PDP , Dr.
Yusuf Agabi is as unpredictable as
it is intriguing.
Governor Almakura’s strength
derives primarily from the fact that
he is widely popular with the
electorate who have come to
identify him as the change factor
given the 12 wasteful years of the
PDP in the state which resulted in
protest votes that saw their ouster
in 2011.
Almakura’s accomplishments are
also a huge boost to his popularity
because it is on record that within
the past three and a half years of
his administration Nasarawa state
has witnessed development
surpassing all the administrations
since the state was created in 1996.
The failed impeachment attempt by
the PDP dominated state Assembly
has also aroused sympathy for
Almakura who is now widely
regarded as the martyr for the
socio-political emancipation of the
people of the state whose apathy for
the PDP increases as his
achievements redoubles.
PLATEAU
Senator Gyang Pwajok has been
elected as the governorship
candidate of PDP in Plateau state.
He won the PDP ticket despite
opposition to his aspiration over
zoning issues.
Having declared, however, Pwajok’s
chances of winning the election
may be dimmed because 12 of the
16 governorship aspirants that
contested and lost the in the PDP
primaries may work against his
interest.
On his part, APC’s governorship
aspirant, Simon Lalong who was a
former speaker of the Plateau State
House of Assembly, will need more
than the rejection of PDP stalwarts
to win Plateau State which had
never left the PDP since its grip
since 1999.
BENUE
The gubernatorial flag bearer of the
Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is
Mr. Terhemen Tarzoor while the
APC) is yet to elect a governorship
candidate at the time of filing this
report.
Tarzoor, a former speaker of the
Benue State House of Assembly is a
consumate politician, a bridge
builder, someone who is friendly
and one who has the interest of the
people at heart.
He is a team player, very
hardworking, transparent and
innovative.
On the side of the APC, a
governorship candidate has not
emerged yet but the battle is
between Emmanuel Jime, a
member of the House of
Representatives and former
minister of Trade and Investment,
Samuel Ortom who just dumped the
PDP.
NIGER
The APC candidates, Mallam Abu
Sanni Bello and that of the PDP,
Alhaji Umar Mohammed Nasko are
both sons of top retired Military
officers.
The APC candidate is the son of the
former Military governor of old Kano
state while Umar is the son of the
former Minister of Federal Capital
Territory, General Mohammed Gado
Nasko.
Therefore, one can not easily say
where the support of the top former
Military leaders and officers in the
state will go. The top retired
Military officers are often regarded
as people who determine those who
would govern the state.
The situation now permits that the
influence of their fathers may be an
intervening variables to ensure the
success of their children.
North West
KANO
Nothing could have been more
strategic for the APC than the
nomination of Dr. Abdullahin Umar
Ganjuje as its governorship
candidate. A seasoned
administrator and politician,
Ganguje has paid his dues in the
politics of Kano State, having being
in its thick and know for more than
30 years.
The deputy governor is known to
command the followership of the
Kwankwasiya political group.
As an incumbent, it is thought that
the incumbency factor will also play
in his favour just as the financial
war chest to prosecute the elections
may not be of immense challenge to
him. The political structure
established by Kwankwaso remains
a huge asset to him.
For the PDP, Salihu Sagir Takai will
bank on his political and grassroots
support and clout across the state.
His expansive political structure is
also a plus for him, just as he has
maintained his structure since
losing the 2011 governorship
election to the incumbent
Kwankwaso.
KADUNA
Another keen battle ground state in
2015 will be Kaduna where
incumbent Governor Ramallan Yero
of the PDP would be up against
former minister of the federal
capital territory, Mallam Nasir el-
Rufai of the APC.
Both sons of Kaduna hail from Zaria
in Kaduna State and would be in a
neck to neck race.
For APC’s el-Rufai, his experience
in public administration is known to
be huge. This is just as his
alienation with General Muhamadu
Buhari remains a huge political
asset to him.
SOKOTO
Speaker Aminu Tambuwal would be
riding on the popularity crest of
Governor Aliyu Wamakko of the APC
and hope to win the election.
Needless to state that the influence
of Gen. Muhammadu Buhari will
also rub off on his prospects.
Also, the relative peace in the APC
in Sokoto remains a worthwhile
asset to him as while formidable
parties in the state are at
loggerheads over their primaries
and relevance in the state.
For the PDP in Sokoto state,
Senator Abdallah Wali Might have
emerged the candidate, but the
contentions still within the PDP
suggests that that it isn’t eureka for
the PDP’s candidate. Though a
known political fighter with
appreciable grassroots support, he
is also said to be on the elitist side.
KATSINA
Aminu Bello Masari of the APC hails
from Funtua zone which has the
largest percentage of voters in the
state, so that will be a factor.
His vast political experience and
connections across political divides
is also an asset that could swing
the poll in his favour.
But he is seen as not having large
pocket to effectively prosecute the
campaigns and prospects of other
APC big wigs from the state
supporting him financially is too
slim.
Nashuni Musa of the PDP has his
biggest strength in the fact that he
is government’s candidate and so
will have the resources of the state
at his disposal to prosecute his
campaigns.
Come February 2015, the picture
will be clearer and we will know
those who will take over on May
29.