http://www.punchng.com/columnists/tunde-fagbenle-saying-it-the-way-it-is/nigeria-dancing-on-the-precipice/

Nigeria: Dancing on the precipice
December 28, 2014 by Tunde Fagbenle

No, it won’t be the first time Nigeria would be dancing on the precipice, far from it. In fact it could be said that the precipice has been home to Nigeria since the forced amalgamation of 1914. But, somehow, Nigeria each time manages to waltz off unto the flatter plateau of make-believe amity and progress.

The elections of 2015 forebode ill for the country given the forces in contention.

On the one hand is President Jonathan who has been unanimously affirmed as the torch-bearer of the ruling party, Peoples Democratic Party, the “largest party in Africa.” There is no precedent in Nigeria for a sitting president to lose a re-election, willy-nilly. Although the Independent National Electoral Commission under Professor Attahiru Jega, and with President Jonathan in power, has improved on the poor history of election conduct and results at the governorship level, there is also no precedent for the Presidential election to be free and fair, regardless of any pretentions to the contrary. And with the enormous power wielded by a Nigerian president over the police, security, and armed forces, it would take a saint of a president to allow himself to be “voted” out of power!

On the other hand is General Muhammadu Buhari who is making his fourth attempt at it, the popular candidate of the increasingly strong opposition party, All Progressives Congress. Perhaps at no time in our democratic history has an opposition party been as formidable as the APC is now.

Going by the present apparent tendencies of the geopolitical zones it appears as if the APC has equal, if not larger, zonal (and registered voters) share. Conventional wisdom indicates that PDP or Jonathan is in full control (at least 85%) of the South-East and South-South, zones with a combined 23.6% of the country’s voters. Conversely, APC or Buhari is similarly assured of at least 85% of North-West, and probable 70% of South-West, both zones having 47% of the country’s total voters’ density (VD). North Central, with 15% of the country’s VD, is deemed to be 50-50 for the parties or 60/40 at best in favour of PDP. The North-East, with a VD of 14.9% is problematic because of Boko Haram, with the probability of elections not holding in many parts of it, or at least in those parts still under control of Boko Haram.

With the Niger Delta amassing arms and gunboats, insisting their man MUST have his second term, and with Boko Haram in the North and the history of what happened in 2011 when Buhari was said to have lost the elections fresh in our minds (may the souls of the innocent NYSC youths and thousands of others rest in peace), it takes no soothsayer to anticipate the probability of war, either way.

To back these fears of mine on the danger ahead for the country was an email received a couple of days ago from a good aburo and friend of mine, Akintayo, son of First Republic minister, Akin-Deko, with the subject: GUNBOATS. Akintayo was forwarding what he received from someone who would remain anonymous. It states:

“I was in conversation with a United Nations official yesterday and we were talking about the acquisition of warships by ethnic militant Tompolo, in a country were our brave soldiers are being starved off equipment. He told me point-blank that in every major conflict he has assessed or been involved in as a UN official it all started with one fellow choosing to arm an ethnic militia as against the national army of the country, sometimes deliberately depleting the army before the violence starts.

“I first got reports of Niger Delta militant Asari Dokubo buying military helicopters and hardware from diplomatic intelligence sources about two years ago. Shortly after that he was arrested in Benin Republic but released upon the intervention of our government. What I can see is very clear, Jonathan is leading an effort to create an alternate military force in the Niger Delta to force the hands of the generality of Nigerians when the time comes. How else can one explain Tompolo a man once declared wanted for killing our soldiers now effectively taking over the duties of our navy?

“Where is all the money coming from? Do you think the arms are being bought for boat parade or regatta? No they are to kill Nigerians. Jonathan has never been able to rise to fill the position of the NIGERIAN Presidency, he acts like an ethnic warlord and at the rate he is going, he is going to push us into the path of Liberia and Sierra Leone, while silly people are busy cheering him on.

“I have taken it upon myself to write a letter of complaint and warning to the United Nations Secretary General to pay attention to what Jonathan and his cohorts are doing in Nigeria, seemingly pushing the country closer to a violent ethnic crisis. This crisis would consume the entire African continent if not checked.

“This morning I received this in my inbox, and I couldn’t help but shudder that we are dealing with really devious human beings who have mistakenly found themselves in power. Their attitude and body language say it all:

“I’m really amused that we are all screaming murder years after the deed was done? It’s well over three years that I have been screaming the overall plans and strategies of the South-South versus the behemoth Nigeria, i.e, their eventual emancipation! For the sake of many who have not read or few who have taken these posts as scare mongering by Oyenuga Lanre Paul, I’ll re-summarise them here:

“To free their region of the shackles of endless exploitation and domination by the rest of Nigeria, the South-South decided as follows: 1). Cripple the Nigerian Army’s capacities to engage in sustained warfare: thus the encouragement of BH (Boko Haram) and decimation of the army’s hardware and personnel. 2). Ensure Nigeria is economically destitute and unable to spend on warfare: thus the unprecedented looting of the treasury, resulting in our current vulnerability. Okonjo-Iweala is not ‘coordinating’ for nothing. 3). Is the military takeover of our coastal waters by the South-South, which is what the coastal waterways protection contract with Government Tompolo was designed to guarantee.

“Let no one be deceived, less than 0.5% of our military, (including naval and air force) personnel can swim in an 8 foot deep pool, not to mention a river or coastal waters. Thus, how do you engage this toughened militia in their coastal waters, when we couldn’t tackle BH in plain view? 4). Is the intense frustrations of the oil producing companies by the South-southerners nouveau-riche to hand over the onshore production bases to them by forced sale or outright disruption of their operations. As we chat here, 70% of the onshore operations have been sold off by the major players like shell, Mobil, etc.

“As well as the training of ex-militants as pilots under amnesty. The South-East are tagging along with the South-South, for obvious reasons and I don’t blame them!

“The choice of Buhari is due to these calculations by our rulers in the South-West and the core North. Unless I’m paranoid, we have a scary situation ahead. I moved my family out as far back as 2011, based on these concerns. GEJ will very likely lose the elections in 2015, but the South-South will keep their oil. Can we afford a war with a region sitting on oil? Do we have a military capable of delivering our goal? Would it not be cheaper to renegotiate our federation? Or, would it be another Rehoboamic declaration of “To your tents o Israel”? GEJ ain’t clueless, he’s merely troubled by the plots he’s a key player in. Viva Le Nigeria!’”

Signed off: “Ajagzy Okunrin Ogun.”

Perhaps, no time compares with this in magnitude of imminence and inevitability of ruinous conflagration. It is as if the country, or its leaders, are wilfully playing to the script of the long-foretold probability of dissolution of the country by 2015. Those who want to remain cocooned in self-deceit or denial may call it unnecessary “wolf-crying,” but wiser folks would take heed and work towards averting the impending calamity. As the Yoruba saying goes: Ogun awitele ki p’aro to gbon. Meaning: A wise cripple does not fall casualty in a war foretold.

And that’s saying it the way it is!

Can Jonathan be ethnic warlord and president at the same time? Is he actually serving the interests of Nigeria?

First of all, the Niger delta is not only Ijaw. Secondly the amnesty program has been an all Ijaw affair. They can only disrupt the oil industry. The SS elites are too corrupt to wage or win a prolonged war. Fourthly, any attack of on the yoruba homeland under a war situation, will be lead to a state of total war.Do not forget that there are 5 coastal tribes within the yoruba family and numerous inland river tribes (Niger, ose,osun etc).
Can any omoluabi remember how they were trying to create a religious crisis out of osun state schoolconsolidation program. Tunde kelani had to release a play to put people on alert.
For every ethnic nation, there are good and there are bad people. Obasanjo seems to have a knack for finding the bad ones.
If any group wants to leave Nigeria, go about it through peaceful agitation and diplomacy. The UN is there for that. But do not try to set the other man's house on fire just because you want to leave via the back door.

oduastates:
First of all, the Niger delta is not only Ijaw. Secondly the amnesty program has been an all Ijaw affair. They can only disrupt the oil industry. The SS elites are too corrupt to wage or win a prolonged war. Fourthly, any attack of on the yoruba homeland under a war situation, will be lead to a state of total war.Do not forget that there are 5 coastal tribes within the yoruba family and numerous inland river tribes (Niger, ose,osun etc).
Can any omoluabi remember how they were trying to create a religious crisis out of osun state schoolconsolidation program. Tunde kelani had to release a play to put people on alert.
For every ethnic nation, there are good and there are bad people. Obasanjo seems to have a knack for finding the bad ones.
If any group wants to leave Nigeria, go about it through peaceful agitation and diplomacy. The UN is there for that. But do not try to set the other man's house on fire just because you want to leave via the back door.

I just wonder if our president is part of a plan to destabilise the nation because the gunboats, the fact that pipelines are monitored by a former militant, NIMASA is in Ijaw hands, the training of militants as pilots and divers... The article made me stop and think.