[b][/b]NIGERIA STATE OF THE NATION

JANUARY 2015

By

MR FEMI OKE
DIRECTOR GENERAL NIGERIAN INSTITUTE
info@nigerianinstitute.com

You may have watched the Politics Punch on Ben TV Tues 21:00
Below is an extract of the document on elections email above for a copy interesting reading sections on the environment, media, film and entertainment to follow

ELECTIONS

We are on the cusp of 2015 elections with a registered electorate of 68million with Temporary Voters Cards TVC’s and approximately 30million Nigerians on the verge of being disenfranchised due to lack of permanent Voters Cards (PVC). The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) insist that only those with PVC can vote and with no test run the efficiency of the PVC readers is questionable. The nation’s security advisor is asking for postponement of elections for three months these elections are already a shambles even before voting starts. With over 1 year to deliver the PVC’s INEC seems incompetent as many PVC’s are yet to be delivered to INEC for onward distribution to electoral centres across the nation. Apparently the PVC’s are being imported, the inability to source plastic biometric cards locally is another example of the sad state of the nation’s manufacturing sector. INEC insists that distribution of PVC’s will continue up to the eve of the election. The spectre of election postponement could create pandemonium, many see this as an attempt to rig the election or an attempt for the ruling party to consolidate its position, while others say that continuing with the election with 60% distribution of PVC’s is a way to disenfranchise its supporters, claiming seeing that Lagos a stronghold of the APC has 54% of PVC’s whilst Yobe state in an insurgency with large numbers of displaced persons has 83% distribution of PVC

The governing party’s media campaign spokespersons seek to muddy the waters by questioning the eligibility of the opposition candidate’s validity to contest due to non delivery of his school certificate, which is the minimum educational requirement for the President. This is a red herring because Buhari has undergone many military courses in and outside Nigeria which are far above the level of school certificate. Once produced there is further confusion as to the genuineness of Buhari’s submission as PDP claimed that Hausa which was included in the questionable certificate was not actually a subject being offered by the examining body Cambridge WAEC in 1961. They claim further that Buhari has perjured himself & should withdraw his candidature. Are these the issues that the electorate are interested in? PDP state that these discrepancies bring into question the integrity of Buhari. The numerous qualifications gained whilst in the army; many at post graduate level, are far above the minimum requirements of school cert and the army also confirms that they had seen the original certificates back in 1961 and noted the results.

Decades of military rule have had a severely negative impact on the development of democracy, most of the politicians that lost their positions in the 2nd republic and in the short experimentation during Babangida & Abacha regimes are still the major political players across the two major parties. As a result candidates that emerge from our electoral system are usually the same old characters rearing their heads. Politicians that emerge are less likely to relate to the man on the street or the mass of the young population under the age of 40 who make the bulk of the electorate. The corrupt nature of politics makes it near impossible for the younger generation to emerge as they do not have the financial resources to take part.

More than 60% of the electorate are below the age of 40 and as such the youth have a great say in the forth coming elections. However they are not taking the bull by the horns, very few of them are candidates in the elections. Although there is a general atmosphere of fervour for the elections with the real prospect for a change, the youth have been lethargic mostly because they have no connection with the candidates, the choice being; “the best of two evils”. I doubt if either of the presidential candidates know how to twit or use social media, indeed how many Nigerian politicians use whatsApp, twitter or social media, to communicate to the electorate. The true measure of a democracy is when it has managed to conduct a change of leadership peacefully with minimal acrimony as was the case when both Yar’Adua & Goodluck won.

The political parties are not true grassroots parties and neither of the two main parties have a set ideology, this makes it easy for candidates to cross carpet from one party to the other, candidates hedging their bets as to which party is likely to win the election. The electoral prostitution of Nigerian politicians is a disgrace and in most countries such candidates would be ridiculed to the backwater of politics. Only in Nigeria can a Sitting Vice President seek to unseat his president and refuse to resign in the process, and then seek another mandate against his party on another political party’s platform whilst in office. It is the sit tight politics of winner takes it all power by all means that is bedevilling democracy in Nigeria.

Although there is widespread support for the main political parties across the nation, party membership is very low. For change to occur Nigeria needs the emergence of a truly grassroots party dominated by those who form the main bulk of the electorate, where the influence of Godfathers is eradicated and candidates emerge on the basis of both their popularity and ability to perform. Such a party should be community based with verifiable computerised databases of members, social media & modern communication tools adopted to galvanise its members, adopting grassroots policies that best serve the majority. Young unblemished politicians with good oratory skills, a greater understanding of the problems of the nation will emerge with a willingness to serve and a determination to succeed. Listening to speeches of early politicians the likes of Tafawa Balewa, Awolowo & Zik amongst others these were true politicians who fought for independence & the interest of their various constituencies in eloquent & impressive manner, they put the current crop of politicians to shame. People have to be galvanised by their oratory and not fall asleep as is the case when many of the current politicians take to the podium. Nigeria needs its own Obama, someone to relate to, look up to and be proud of.

In most countries opinion polls give fairly accurate prediction of likely election outcomes, Nigeria does not have a history of opinion polling and the infrastructure makes it difficult to get a truly reflective poll. The history of national census in Nigeria which is highly politicised means that any poll is likely to be aggressively rebutted and likely to be accused of being biased, so it is always difficult to predict the likely outcome of elections. This failure means eventual electoral results are rendered highly contentious with neither party willing to coincide to the popular will of the people. The creation of independent polling bodies will help in bringing some sanity to the electoral process as consistent verifiable polls will shed light on voting trends around the nation bringing greater credibility to the eventual results.

The impact of ethnicity & religion on voting is significant but has been changing slowly. The first break with ethnic voting occurred during what is widely considered as Nigeria’s first and only credible elections which saw a Muslim southerner winning the elections against a northern Muslim candidate, receiving large volumes of votes from the north. The imposition of a two party system by the then military government restricting the influence of former politicians was a positive development if not for the annulment would have set the nation on the right democratic path. The third republic reinstated multi party system which as expected degenerated to ethnic parties of old. AD in the west, APGA in the East & PDP a largely Northern Party cut across most regions, Presidential elections were a South West Affair with the two main candidates coming from this region. It was a compromise to cede the presidency to the Yoruba’s to heal the schism brought about by the annulling of the victory won by MKO Abiola a Yoruba man from the SW. Obasanjo was re-elected in 2003, 2007 elections saw Yar’Adua the PDP northern candidate win with a larger majority as the oppositions vote was splintered between many other parties. 2011 elections saw another victory for PDP with a southern candidate. There was violence in the north as they felt their candidate Gen Buhari was cheated.

It is often claimed that elections are rigged in Nigeria and their outcomes have been largely contentious it suits western observers to fly this kite as another example Africa’s obsession with rigging. The reality is that in 1979 there was no way that UPN a Yoruba party could have defeated Shagari. The party made the same mistake as in the first republic. The 1983 elections were rigged but the outcome would have still seen NPN winning the Presidency due to the splintering of votes between opposition parties whose PPP alliance failed to agree on a single candidate. It is generally accepted that there was excessive rigging in the National Assembly and governorship elections; this is borne out by the wide disparity in outcomes compared with the previous election in1979.

In 2007 Presidential elections PDP was elected due to the power of incumbency and out of sympathy for Yar’Adua whose brother died whilst incarcerated during the Abacha regime, but yet again the rigging was mainly in the National Assembly & governorship elections as PDP sought to tighten its reigns on power. PDP won yet again in 2011 despite fielding Jonathan a contentious Southern candidate again due to a divided opposition. His votes came mainly from his base in the South: SS & SE and party loyalist in pockets of the North. It was also bolstered by SW traditionally anti PDP, who abandoned their own candidate; an inexperienced Anti Corruption guru Ribadu a Northerner in favour of a Jonathan a Southerner, with Buhari the only credible opposition having his main support from the north but he lacked any strategic southern base either in the SW, SE or SS. Buhari has now been embraced by the SW in a marriage of convenience to gain power at the centre.

Any successful candidate must be able to carry the majority of their stronghold of either the south or the North coupled with a significant proportion of votes from one of the power block regions outside their core; SE, SW, SS & NC. These are the major population centres and the swing regions in Nigerian politics.

For the cohesion of the Nigerian experiment it is high time for the emergence of a President from SE. With the rotational nature of Nigerian politics if a northerner wins this election the next President should rotate to the SE. It is the only region that has not taken the reigns of the ultimate position in Nigeria; save for the short period after the first coup when General Ironsi assumed the position, by virtue of being the senior military General after the Nzegwu led coup. The emergence of a president from SE has been problematic firstly due to their lack of unity to agree on a single formidable candidate, there is also the yoke of the civil war, the impression amongst other regions that a eastern president may not be trustworthy and may hasten the breakup of Nigeria. SE seems to be fully in support of Goodluck’s candidacy, this appears to be a naive political calculation and a strategic mistake. As it will ensure that their stay in the doldrums away from the presidency will continue for at least another 12 years all things being equal if Jonathan wins, the next president is most likely to be a Northerner and that president is likely to run for two terms. If Buhari wins after his mandate the presidency is likely to rotate to the south. The SE should be scouting and grooming for their candidate now who will be ready for elections in four years time or eight years.

Our prediction is that Goodluck’s main support will come from SS, SE and minute pockets in SW & NC. He is unlikely to win in the North as he didn’t win there in 2011 when factors were more favourable for him. For Buhari to win he needs all the support of the SW pockets of SS or SE plus majority vote from his base in the North. The outcome NE which is likely to vote for Buhari is unpredictable due to the ongoing insurgency. The unification of four opposition parties into one APC & large numbers of PDP members switching to PDP and a smaller group going the other way make the results too close to call

Since the return to civilian rule in 1999 PDP, has won all the elections at the Federal with an informal ‘zoning’ arrangement zoning the presidency on a regional basis with rotation between the southern and northern regions every two terms. Jonathan’s candidacy in 2011 was seen by many within the party as breaking the gentleman’s agreement as his emergence truncated the north’s term in government. The wounds were healed with the party rallying around the incumbency & a sense of continuity of Yar’Adua’s mandate. Goodluck won the 2011 election convincingly largely with the added support of opposition voters in the South West who endorsed his southern candidacy. Now running for a second term many in the north are disaffected as they feel that he is abusing another agreement to seek just a single term. The result is that there has been a split in the PDP with many disillusioned party governors decamping to the APC. It is not certain the effect of these development, but it is safe to assume that it will have a dynamic impact. Buhari won most of the votes in the North in 2011 now he has aligned himself with a coalition of other parties to gain a significant proportion of votes from the South, the 2015 elections is going to be a close run race.

The left progressives have never won an election and assumed power at the Federal level in Nigeria since Independence, from Action Group, NCNC, UPN, PRP, PPP to SDP whose victory was annulled, AD, APP, AC, ACN, APGA. Last year India voted in a new Government as Prime Minister Modi defeated the incumbent Congress party who had been in government for years having made great strides in expanding India’s economy. The opposition in Bangladesh just won against an incumbent vying for a third term that called for early elections and lost. The Greek electorate has just voted a leftist government against a conservative incumbent for the first leftist government in 60 years, all were elections where the incumbent lost and the electorate was fed up with the status quo. Who knows what will happen in Nigeria as it normally bucks the trend.

A mature democracy is one in which power moves from the incumbent party to the opposition party seamlessly in a peaceful manner as the case with Ghana. Nigeria has not achieved this yet, are these really times for high fives happy smiles and jubilation, Change or Continuity time will tell which will take eminence, can’t wait till Valentine’s Day, happy Valentine’s Day in advance of Nigeria’s 14th February 2015 elections.

Source: Nigeria State of the Nation Jan 2015
info@nigerianinstitute.com

Saws....Sauce....Sos...Source

I will comment when i wake up but op pls add d source

*yawns* can this topic hit Lalasticlala ?

BIASED POST FROM AN APC MEMBER.

The Nigerian Institute is an A political organisation with no party affiliation unlike many bodies aligning to one party or the other, we are just stating the facts and clearly state that the 2015 elections are going to be keenly contested with no preference as to whether the winner is likely to be continuity or change. Please contact us for the full State of the Nation document at info@nigerianinstitue.com. Rather than making sweeping comments please give details of the facts you dispute. Political dialogue is great medicine and necessary for the enlightenment of our body politic.

I add another contentious topic from the Nigeria State of the Nation Report on corruption happy reading

CORRUPTION

Nigeria is a dirty, corrupt, undisciplined country is this perception, observation or a reality some say all are true. Corruption is said to be endemic and the bane of all our woes. Its origins stem from rewards given to local kings, leaders and village heads during slavery and colonization to placate and subdue local populations. It was shamelessly used during the first republic and claimed as the reason for the 1st coup by Nzegwu and several military coups thereafter. There is no government that has not been bedevilled by corruption barring the Murtala & Buhari regimes which both ended abruptly; that is not to say that corrupt practises stopped during their reign, but the failure of systems to detect, prosecute and punish these crimes against the Nation is tantamount to crimes against humanity.

Even the young generation claim that they can’t wait for postings so that they can do their own. In all cadres of government corruption prevails, kick backs, inflated contracts, white elephant and abandoned projects are widespread. Before you can win a tender for a contract you must give bribe; once you have the contract, to get the periodic payments you will need to give bribes. Nigerians say they could bare corruption provided that the politicians complete the works and deliver on their promises. Our elections are said to be corrupt politicians buy votes. This claim is unrealistic, with 68 million registered voters how many votes will be bought those given bribes are likely to be a minute number.

In the west elections are bought too; but largely it is dedicated party supporters that fund the election campaigns via individual donations and large donations from big business interests and unions; invariably the party that spends the most generally wins. How does corruption work in Nigerian elections, an individual interested in public office first gives bribes to those who will arrange meetings with party Godfathers’, if you satisfy their demands (bribes) The Godfathers will ensure your victory during party primaries despite you not having the support of party members this is called election by selection. Following your selection another thank you bribe is necessary for those who ensured the victory and sometimes to silence the candidate with the rightful mandate. In the campaign proper area boys and party lackeys are dashed various amounts to rally their constituencies, encourage local voters & influential persons and to ensure that your rivals don’t raise their heads.

During the election proper further bribes where necessary are given to election officials and security operatives to ensure that the desired results are published. Finally the selected is elected and declared the winner after mortgaging his assets and near broke. He now seeks to recuperate his expenditure plus interest and will still need to reward as many of those that assisted in this great deception, by appointing them in strategic offices where the coffers can be drained without question. Civil servants are coerced to comply or face removal and so looting goes on unabated all being culpable in the stealing and draining of public funds to the detriment of development, execution of state programmes & policies, in the end the people suffer.

Economic & Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) was quite busy and reasonably effective during the Obasonjo government in spotlighting corruption, despite its selective prosecutions a number of governors, executives and politicians were prosecuted. The incumbent President has pardoned some of them, this would not happen in most countries. The effectiveness of EFCC seems to be waning with no prosecutions of the current set of politicians from either party, are we to assume that there is no more corruption? Politicians operate with impunity, legislators earn unimaginable salaries the man on the street cannot phantom. Nigerian legislators are amongst the highest paid in the world how ridiculous in the midst of poor performance & widespread poverty. Will they voluntarily reduce these salaries in the light of forthcoming austerity & reduction in the Federation account?

Nigeria desperately needs infrastructural development it budgeted 91% on recurrent expenditure and 9% on Capital expenditure 2015, capital expenditure in 2014 was 24%. This lopsided budget may be due to election politics. The electorate must be told the truth about the economy. It is high time to cut waste; the cost of running government has to be drastically reduced. Nigeria needs to cut its coat to its size, remove cases of ghost workers and dead people receiving pensions, start vast retrenchment and transfer positions to the private sector. There must be a reinvigoration of EFCC, it must be strengthened with more investigative powers and protection of whistle blowers campaign. The media needs to do more to expose corruption at all levels, when people feel that they can be caught anywhere its incidence will reduce.

War Against Indiscipline (WAI) which was executed during a military regime in a draconian manner has been widely praised as a good initiative; that was scorned upon by many, but positive during its time. The nation needs a similar policy to eradicate the scourge of corruption. We suggest Operation Clean Nigeria (OCN) to clean it of corruption and to ensure environmental sanitation and waste management. A clean environment will endear clean behaviour.

Ministries, Departments and Staff must be tasked to operate more efficiently with consequences for failure to meet set targets; including sacking and prosecutions where appropriate and incentives for exceeding prescribed standards in service delivery. Customer service should be paramount, standards and training should be enhanced across the board. Costumers and citizens in general should be encouraged to complain with compensation for poor service, including refund of proven bribe demands provided they cooperate with law enforcement. Complaints handling procedures and departments must be standard in all Parastatals, ministries and departments.

Those found guilty of corrupt practises should have severe sentences to serve as deterrent, proceeds of crimes act & confiscation orders enforced so that ill gotten wealth is recouped with no time limit. The law that allows immunity for state governors should be repealed. Robust internal affairs and investigations departments should be established to flush corrupt officials out. People who flout ill gotten wealth should be despised & not heralded. As a society we must question the source of wealth of public officials and civil servants especially where such wealth is not commensurate with their salary and position. Whistle blowing should be encouraged.

Corruption is sickening and the bane of all that is wrong with the Nigerian, Police, Customs, Immigration, FRSC, NDEA & NAFDAC. Various ministry officials at all levels Federal, State and local government don’t process applications without bribes, appointments with officials don’t take place without bribe, proposals aren’t considered without bribe, allocations not released without bribe, honest hardworking Nigerians are frustrated daily trying to survive and make a living. The whole system of government is comatose due to corruption.

The media has a duty and a herculean task to expose corruption at all levels, it is failing woefully in this regard by making unsubstantiated allegations of fraud, investigative skills of our media is amateurish, they often compromise themselves by being mouth pieces for government. The Media needs to work much harder to expose corruption with sting operations etc that will make such revelations unchallengeable. Witness protection schemes by state SSS & police must also be bolstered to protect whistleblowers.

The battle against corruption will be won with a changing of the mindset of the citizens. Evolution of the mindset is stagnant in ‘Nigeria we are not doing a good job at the level of civil education, the people are trapped by poverty tradition culture, nepotism, religion & ethnicity’ Folarin Gbadebo Smith; ‘there is a lack of national cohesion & public space values with no intrinsic permanent structures, people look for how they can line their pockets first, in our elections Nigerians need RSVP register select vote & protect’ Chidi Anselem Odikalu

A new culture needs to be imbibed into the very fabric of the nation. Community based policies that unify people of diverse origins to value public space. Policies such as Operation Clean Nigeria, Light up Nigeria, Nigeria First, I Love Nigeria, buy Made in Nigeria will go a long way.

Corruption didn’t start with the PDP government and they were the first civilian government to create a body EFCC to combat it; but it is still endemic in Nigeria and rampant in both government and private sectors. It is not just the system that is corrupt but the people within it who are corrupt and the society as a whole who are corrupt, we must look at the manner in which our leaders emerge. The nation has a vast resource of capable unblemished leaders who have the nation at heart but they refuse to take part in politics which they see as a dirty game, if good men refuse to lead then hope is all lost. Being optimistic when peoples back are against the wall they will fight for their rights and those of good character will eventually emerge.

Source The Nigerian Institute
info@nigerianinstitute.com