On March 28, 2015, Nigerians would be heading to the polls to choose a president who would govern them for the next 4 years. But unlike other countries, Nigeria has a complex political atmosphere too difficult to
understand. While Buhari and the All Progressive Congress (APC) may appear to be gaining momentum at the moment, there are 5 likely reasons why Buhari may lose the coming presidential
election. These reasons are disused below.

1) The Independence Of INEC Has been Compromised

The independence of an electoral body
is sacrosanct for conducting credible
elections in any country. In Nigeria however, the independence of INEC
has always been called into question.
From the tenure of Abel Guobadia in
(2000- 2005) to the tenure of Moris
Uwu (2005- 2010), and even now that
Atahiru Jega is at the helm of affairs,
INEC is only as free as the government permits it to be. Both Abel Guobadia and Moris Iwu were criticized for overseeing elections that were not any better than that organized by the National Union of Road Transport Workers (NURTW). The reason why these men failed is not far fetched. Nigerian politicians will never permit a free and fair election. And from the dramatic way in which the February 14 poll was shifted, it appears President Jonathan is also not ready to permit credible elections on March 28.

2) Christian Vs Muslim Ideology

Nigeria is one of the most religiously
divided countries in the world and the
strong role religion plays in the life of
many Nigerians would also come to bear on March 28. This may work against Buhari at the polls. The
misconceptions about Buhari that he is
a jihadist waiting to Islamise Nigeria
may be his undoing. Nigerians are
known to push religious sentiments
above other important issues like
competence, credibility, and good
governance. That’s why many in the
Southern parts of Nigeria would rather
prefer to suffer under a Christian ruler
than smile under a Muslim one.

3) The Nigerian Army Is now A Political Party

Gone are the gallant days of the
Nigerian Army. In recent times the
Army has become a shadow of itself.
In other countries, the military separates itself from politics and never
blurs that line. During the Arab spring
in 2011, the military in several Arab
countries who had sit –in-tight dictators lived up to expectation. They
tasked themselves with protecting
lives and property and did not go
further. In Nigeria, the opposite holds
sway, the Nigerian Army has become
a product of our decayed society. A
career in the Army is now centered on
looking for juicy postings and Ghana-
must-go bags. Following the manner
in which the Nigerian Army handled
the Buhari certificate saga, it is clear
whose side the military is on, the side
of OUR OGA AT THE TOP. The one
who can guarantee them juicy postings and jumbo retirement benefits, President Jonathan. With a partial military guarding the ballot boxes, Buhari would likely lose on
March 28.

4) PDP Is Poised To Win By All Means

If the recent audio tape by Sahara
Reporters which purports to record
how the Ekiti elections were rigged in
2014 is anything to go by, then Buhari
has lost even before the March 28
election begins. The People’s Democratic Party has been in power
for 16 years with little to show for it.
The Party is well known for surrounding itself with individuals who lack credibility, from Alamieyeseigha who jumped bail in England by dressing as a woman to James Ibori and other politicians who see credibility as a virtue too expensive to afford. If PDP can decorate itself with politicians like these, then Buhari can kiss free and fair elections goodbye.

5) Tribalism

Tribalism just like religion is another
hurdle that Gen Buhari might be unable to cross. The contest between President Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party and Gen Buhari of the All Progressive Party has been portrayed through the eyes of many as a contest between a Southerner and a Northerner. Politicians have also taken advantage of this loophole to champion the crusade that Buhari is from the Northern part of the country where majority of Nigeria’s past rulers hail from. They feel that all non- northerners should unite and vote
President Jonathan, because as a
southerner, he deserves to be in power. Sadly, this view is shared by many Nigerians and this could result in Buhari losing by a colossal margin come March 28.

If Buhari cannot scale these hurdles
then he could be inline to loose the
presidential election for the third
consecutive time.

Chai! Na wa oooo... God's will shall be done sha

I REALLY DON'T AGREE WITH U

hazyfm1:
I REALLY DON'T AGREE WITH U

but that's the truth.

20 reasons GEJ will lose in the forthcoming election..

1) Nigerians are tired of him
2) Nigerians are tired of him
3) Nigerians are tired of him
4) Nigerians are tired of him
5) Nigerians are tired of him
6) Nigerians are tired of him
7) Nigerians are tired of him
Nigerians are tired of him
7) Nigerians are tired of him
Nigerians are tired of him
9) Nigerians are tired of him
10) Nigerians are tired of him

11) Nigerians yearn for a change of govt like never before
12) Nigerians yearn for a change of govt like never before
13) Nigerians yearn for a change of govt like never before
14) Nigerians yearn for a change of govt like never before
15) Nigerians yearn for a change of govt like never before
16) Nigerians yearn for a change of govt like never before
17) Nigerians yearn for a change of govt like never before
18) Nigerians yearn for a change of govt like never before
19) Nigerians yearn for a change of govt like never before
20) Nigerians yearn for a change of govt like never before

....Just my way of saying I DISAGREE WITH YOU

The future of this country is in our hands..go get your PVC and

P - PLEASE

V - VOTE

C - CHANGE

May GOD be our strength

1000 reasons why GEJ would loose on march 28.
1-1000: WE WANT CHANGE

Op maybe right to an extent, but not in totality.

The word change has been abused by the younger generation. At least have seen quite a lot so keep on betting on something that is most like worst than what you are used to, at the end of the day you will live with your decision.

op why are you giving us 5 reasons instead of 1,000 reasons.
most apc supporters dont even have pvc, and they will come online to rant.
i voted for goodluck jonathan 2011, it will give great joy to vote for him again, cos he is a man of transformation.
jonathan till 2019

DaBullIT:
That's psychological war fare

and i know because i have always known


GEJ has a higher probability of losing than Buhari and everybody knows

cluelessness

corruption

Has not made any smart decisions in 5 years

. Which do you prefer? The devil or the deep blue sea? Obviously the Only good military ruler nigeria has ever had is Adusallami, he made a promise and kept to it. This is despite the fact that he had almost unlimited power to rule for life (like abacha). Take it or leave it, history has a way of affecting the future. Its just unfortunate majority of my age mates who lived through military regimes are not members of nairaland. If they were you would know what it feels like to be under military rule. Even Obasanjo returned nigeria to democracy, what did you CHANGE master do? I pity this generation.

Everything has been weighed, and we still have chosen Buhari. All the points are sensible ones that can't be ignored. But, only the rigging point can be said to be valid now and I think APC shld be working on how to stop that. Then considering the fact that their chief rigger(Baba) has denied them, and INEC too trying to be credible, I hope We APC are on course.

Op, you do have some reasons there, but I think religion and tribalism could work in favor of both candidates considering the number of nigerians who allow ethnicity and religion to play a role in their decision.

DaBullIT:
That's psychological war fare

and i know because i have always known


GEJ has a higher probability of losing than Buhari and everybody knows

cluelessness

corruption

Has not made any smart decisions in 5 years

Bro! How I wish Nigerians see it the way you see it. It a pity religion and ethnicity is the major force.

Buhari will lose because Nigerians don't want to be ruled by a dinosaur, a relic from the military era who is surrounded by thieves like tinubu, amaechi etc


And who is likely a thief himself

tivta:
. Which do you prefer? The devil or the deep blue sea? Obviously the Only good military ruler nigeria has ever had is Adusallami, he made a promise and kept to it. This is despite the fact that he had almost unlimited power to rule for life (like abacha). Take it or leave it, history has a way of affecting the future. Its just unfortunate majority of my age mates who lived through military regimes are not members of nairaland. If they were you would know what it feels like to be under military rule. Even Obasanjo returned nigeria to democracy, what did you CHANGE master do? I pity this generation.

So for your mind, na person wey no reach you for age you dey follow yarn?

DaBullIT:



So for your mind, na person wey no reach you for age you dey follow yarn?

. Am just trying to educate you, like the saying goes people perish for lack of wisdom and guidance.