onatisi:
Barcanista ,what did u eat before typing all these? The instance I saw u mention obj as a political gladiator in yoruba politics ,I stopped reading the rest. All what u wrote here are political fantasies or abstract theories that have rooting. What is on ground is 100000000000000000% different from what u wrote down. Maybe u based ur opinion on conversations u had with bankers and lawyers.if u want to know the true level of things in nigeria ,go to the base groups like meat sellers,conductors,drivers,hawkers,etc . Then u will know. But as at today the 17th of march , for the presidential pdp already has 50 %of yoruba votes . Forget apc noise makers on nairaland . For governorship in oyo state it is a fight to finish as the 5 leading contenders have equal chance ,in ogun state ,osoba will and has broken apc voters base . The 3 parties have equal chance . There is no way apc will win ondo and ekiti,forget what u read on nairaland. There is a proverb in yoruba politics . Oju ni oselu ,inu ni ibo wa,meaning politics is a face thing,voting is inside the mind .

superstar1:


I repeat you do not understand the politics of SW. The mere fact that Osinbajo is from SW against a candidacy of GEJ/Sambo will nullify all those you mentioned.

You expect SW not to vote for their own or what?

okonkwo44:
Rubbish post,it will shock you how GEj will emerge victoriously.read gej history and you will knw he z david of our time.

Canme4u:


Everything you said about Oyo state is true except the Bolded(The religion aspect of it)

We Oyo state people don't care about religion on our choice of leadership. In one family it is a must for you to see people of different religions i.e. Muslim, Christian and even Traditional worshiper. We put our religion beliefs behind us when selecting our leaders. Have you ever wonder why politicians never use that tactics in S.W. ?

Alao Akala is a Christian and we voted for him in 2007, I personaly canvas votes for him in 2007 and I also voted against him in 2011.


This is how I will cast my votes.

President > GMB APC

Governor > Ajimobi APC

Oyo central Senatorial District > Chief Bisi Ilaka Accord

House of Rep. > SKIME APC

My house of Assembly > Barr. Muheeden Olagunju Accord

The only difference between my voting pertern and my Dad is house of Assembly. He is going for APC instead of Accord that I support.

My conclussion, religion is not our issues in South West and GEJ WILL NOT EVEN GET 10% VOTES IN SOUTH WEST, I REAPEAT, GEJ will not even get 10% votes from any SW states.

barcanista:
Oga, no be me write am na. Read my reply... Direct your response to the OP

bakila:
M
Ohhh why nah. You want them to run away from elections again. Oya give GEJ 18% please. Thank you in advance.

DVanguard:


You make me laugh with your analysis of SW politics. I never said Obj is a determinate factor but a stabilising factor for PDP in the south West. Apart from Fayose non of the people you stated would have an in root into the politics of SW without the input of Obj 2003 rigging machine.
How can you take out the military and security backing given to Pa Adedibu in 2003 and 2007 to deliver Oyo state to PDP. Adedibu was in APP 1999 and Ladoja invited him to PDP to help him dislodge Yekini Adeojo to win the Primaries. Akala was the Chairman of Ogbomosho North LG and the only APP LG chairman in Oyo state. His loyalty to Adedibu granted him the ticket, he was not a popular candidate but because of AD picked their deputy from Oke-ogun while PDP went for Akala (even when the populace of ogbomosho preferred Oloyede or Olorede from Ogbomosho south to Akala) and the voting strength of Ogbomosho is more than Oke-ogun.
You nailed your knowledge of Oyo politics by saying Ajimobi is not a mobilizer. Ajimobi was a senator 1999 - 2003 where he fell out with AD and joined APP. He contested against Akala in 2007 under ANPP and came second defeating even Lam Adesina led AD. For ACN to win 2011 election, Tinubu had to persuade Lam Adesina to accept Ajimobi into ACN. PDP banking on Ladoja is the worst thing any serious politician can do to itself. I like the way you accepted that PDP has not say in OYO politics but banking on endorsement from other political parties. Remember, it involves Local and National election. If you believe that regardless of the performance of Ameachi in rivers state he cannot win Rivers for GMB how come you can believe GEJ winning OYO state.
You said i gave Ogbomosho to APC, what structure do PDP/AP have in Ogbomosho compared to LP and APC. The Soun's son is contesting for HOR and is like a son-in-law to Akala. Do you think Akala would work for PDP in your wildest dream.
Ogun state is the funniest of all, OGD won the election of 2003 with the major financier by Senator Ibikunle Amosun and the political trickery of Obj over Osoba. ACN would not win the 2011 election if they did not produce Amosun. There was no strong candidate after the death of Dipo Dina. Tinubu negotiated with Osoba by telling him to give the governorship ticket to Amosun while he produce the deputy governor, senators and HOR members. Amosun agreed and after the 2011 election Amosun decided to amend the loopsided political structure. This did not go down well with Osoba. Osoba is strong no doubt about it but how do he come in terms with senate and HOR election that hold same day with Presidential. How do you tend to convince Ogun people to vote against their own while you expect GEJ to win out rightly in Bayelsa. You are the funniest analyst i have ever come across. I can bet it if GEJ gets 20% of the vote in that state OGD is a wonderful politician.
Ondo state, you got it wrong. Olushola Oke runs with the support and machinery of Late Agagu. That machinery have dissolved into APC. Without Agagu faction with Olushola, he can not win any thing at Ondo south.

I will conclude with your comment that you just scramble for documents online thinking that will translate to vote. We all know the strength of individuals in their society. PDP might make significant impact in local election but the presidency, it is a forgotten issue.

barcanista:
I don't know whether you read my piece or you jumped to conclusion. For a start, I said Ogbomoso is under the grip of Akala, Akala is an unapologetic GEJ supporter and has publicly endorsed Jonathan for President www.vanguardngr.com/2015/02/south-west-leaders-endorse-jonathan/ he never liked APC and will never work for them. Same for Ibadan AP and Ladoja.

Let me refresh your mind on 2011, there was major crack within the PDP. Some stayed with Akala, some went with Ladoja to Accord, while few anti-Akala led by Folarin remained in PDP but openly worked against Akala. Most of the anti-Akala openly worked with AC.N. Accord was so unpopular but rode on Ladoja's goodwill. At the end Oyo state AC N vote was 420,167, PDP 386, 480, ACCORD 275,151. OYo AC also won 2 Senate with Akala's PDP winning 1 Senate. Today, 60% of the APC chieftains includiong all 2 Senators are now with Accord. In the State Parliament even APC members went to Accord or LP. Accord, PDP, SDP and LP may have their disagreement when it comes to local politics, they are ALL working for Jonathan's Presidency. I have given you public endorsements. For the Guber election, it is between AP and LP...APC is out of contention.

For Ekiti, you all still whine and won't come to terms with the reality. You claimed Obj rigged 2003 for PDP Gov, this is typical of opposition.

For Ondo State, I have showed you how Mimiko and Oke have been reconciled but you kept calling Agagu. Agagu that couldn't win his reelection and Agagu that couldn't deliever Ondo to Oke in 2012. Well, we know that the "few" Agagu loyalists are splitted, some with Oke, others are moving to APC but they can't even outnumber Mimiko. Beside, Both Oke and Mimiko are core Jonathanians. Whether you like it or not, Oke and Mimiko are united as long as Ondo South is concerned.

For Lagos State, you don't expect me to be arguing bedroom talk, but the PDP is united for the first time since 2006. All groups are core pro-Janathan(Koro and George groups).

Let me remind you that the case of Ogun has been dealt repeatedly, I can't be repeating myself.

In summary, as long as the Presidential poll is concerned, AP/Ladoja, LP/Akala, SDP/Makinde, AD, Afenifere, and PDP are signed up for Jonathan in Oyo State.

SDP/Osoba/Odunsi, PDP/GNI/OGD, LP, AD are working for GEJ in Ogun State.

Fayose/PdP and his team plus others are workin in Ekiti state

Mimiko, LP, Oke and others are working in Ondo

Koro, George, Adams, Fasheun, and ors are working for GEJ in Lagos

Omisore controls in Osun(this is where APC have hope).


Remember what happened in 2003 when AD leaders thought the split of Afenifere won't affect them, it cost them the Govership in all 6 states except Lagos.

Canme4u:


Yes baws, he is the one.

ziccoit:


I'm also waiting to see how a Yoruba will queue under scorching sun only to vote GEJ a SSner in place of their son Osinbajo a SWner.

superstar1:


I repeat you do not understand the politics of SW. The mere fact that Osinbajo is from SW against a candidacy of GEJ/Sambo will nullify all those you mentioned.

You expect SW not to vote for their own or what?

DVanguard:
GEJ to win South West is a very difficult task but politics is a game which requires major and minor players. Lots of factors are against GEJ winning SW.
There are two major schools of thoughts in the South West;
1. The regional champions who believe they need to grow from their performance in the region to national politics. (The Progressives led by Tinubu)
2. The national champions who believe they can muscle they national spread on the regional SW politics. (The Conservatives led by Obj).
The two minority schools of thoughts in the SW;
1. The disgruntled or out of favour champions that falls out due to power play in their respective states in the progressive camp. (Progressive fallout – SDP and Afenifere)
2. The selected few that due to their closeness to the President and the fallout of their seeking relevance by taking order from Ota while they can do that with their closeness to the Presidency. (Conservative fallout)
South West politics is very dynamic; lots of factors determine their voting pattern. Local election cannot be used as a yardstick to decide their voting pattern. Most times their votes are determined by the value and quality of the candidate in the National Politics.
Factors SW consider when choosing candidate nationally based on history of their voting pattern since 1999 – 2011.
1. Perceived victim of victimization by the particular group/zone of people against a candidate. (for example yar’adua’s cabal against GEJ 2010).
2. National policies like fuel subsidy. (Fuel price in SW region is most times within the regulated price because of the understanding of its sensitivity of the policy to them).
3. They are most times less concerned about the National Politics as long as their local champion delivers on their said promises. (If one of their local champions is involved then they tend to partake).
4. They check the performance of the candidates based on the current reality on ground and pinch their tent with the one that will defend their interest most.
5. Political leaders are respected based on the perspective of the area within the regions they control. Political leader must have contributed meaningful to the area or state he belongs to, he must be seen to be humble and not abusive and must be seen to have a sense of direction.

GEJ lost the battle for SW by committing the worst blunder by allowing two major gladiators in a region to fight him. (Obj & Tinubu). Tinubu relevance in SW politics started 2003 when he was the only governor to survive the tactical blunder committed by his party members (AD) and Afenifere. Since then he had made his in root to the hearts of SW by producing Governors of impeccable characters and known for excellence in their professional field before joining politics. These are some of the factors that affect PDP in some of the state elections. Tinubu has been successful even in the face of defeat in Ondo and Ekiti election. Ondo Election was not about Tinubu but the exemplary performance of the governor Mimiko against an unknown Akeredolu (a legal luminary), it was a political blunder while that of Ekiti state is a politics that I don’t understand but the popularity of Fayose cannot be overlooked regardless of his thug like character. (Might be linked to the dissatisfaction of the civil servants against fayemi’s policy).
Obasanjo might not be relevant in the local politics of SW but he has always been the stabilizing factor in the SW conservative party. He single handed ensured the relevance of PDP in SW with finance and political position giving to his lieutenants. His inability to show significant development in the SW has not made him accepted as the Leader of Yoruba’s after being the President of Nigeria and them voting en-mass for him 2003. He has been a major source of success of PDP in the SW.

State by state analysis will be presumed on five factors namely;
1. Performance
2. Political structure
3. Political gladiators
4. Perspective of the ordinary SW.
5. Ethnicity/religion

EKITI;
Ekiti state will be a very tight race. The charisma and the do-or-die attitude of the Governor will play a major role, either positive or negative march 28 will decide. The incumbent will have a lot on his way because he still enjoys the goodwill of his people based on his flawless victory in his election. The negative aspect of it is that fayose have not been able to manage his success within his party rank. The state primaries have caused lot of problem between him and some of the gladiators that helped him during his election. Like Senator Arise and Senator Gbenga Aluko etc. He runs the state PDP like his personal property. He calls the shot which can go well for him or work against him. The opposition in the state have succeeded in painting him in bad light among the elite which has a minimal impact in local politics but heavy impact in National politics. The APC succeeded in mending fence with their arch rival LP candidate, he is back into their fold. The perspective of an average Yoruba man politically still believes in the school of thoughts of Awolowo, which Tinubu’s group have clung to over time. If APC follows Awolowo's ideology is a discussing for another day.
Finally, since 2011 politically the SW have been marginalised from National politics and no meaning full development in Ekiti from the Federal Govt., and there is this noise of ‘na our son make he dey there’ wont they want their fellow ethnic person be there too.

VERDICT:
Fayose is loved as a person but his ability to convince his people to vote GEJ is another task to see his doggedness against all odds.
If he succeeds PDP 55% while APC 45%, but if he fails PDP 35% APC 65%.

ONDO;

Ondo State is a state that the governor has lost his goodwill from the people due to lots of labour issue. The movement of from LP to PDP has weakling his political strength. The people he met in PDP moved to APC and some of the aggrieved members of his former LP who could not get recognition based on the movement from LP to PDP fell out and joined APC. Formerly the politics of Ondo state is shared along senatorial zones. Ondo North is the strong base of APC led by Boroface and co, Ondo Central is the strong base of LP led by the Gov himself Mimiko while Ondo South is led by late Agagu camp PDP. The current fall out has made APC strong in two senatorial zones while PDP Ondo Central.
Mimiko is the all in all today in Ondo PDP, while APC has leaders in every zone of the strength of Mimiko (but not as strong as mimiko). Their combination would defeat the campaign strategy of mimiko in National politics which can be impossible in Local politics. The problem with PDP in SW will be on what performance bases he will campaign. If he as a Governor campaigned based on his achievement in his state what will he campaign with as the president’s achievement in Ondo state.
The love his people had for him 2012 is lost which will play also a major role in his ability to convince the electorate. Our son syndrome will also play a major role.
The perspective of GEJ in this area is very poor. Forget the endorsement of falae and afenifere, Falae has never won any election he sponsored since 2003 in Akure. He is respected but that has never transcended to votes.

VERDICT;
PDP 30% APC 70%

OSUN ;

This is a no go area for PDP. Sen. Omisore is the only political gladiator in PDP. Omisore will have to slug it out with the Governor and the interest of the God father of APC VP Osinbanjo town. The other senatorial zone is a complete no go area for PDP.
Osun state is a complete lock down area for APC. Lots of factors favour APC. Discussing this state is a waste of energy.

VERDICT;
PDP 20% APC 80%

OYO;

This is a state that parades lots of gladiators in different zones of the state. But PDP have played lots of bad politics earlier which back fired against them. This a state that is Muslim dominated and religion sometimes plays a factor in their choice of candidature. PDP also played the card of APC frustrating the interest of Yoruba’s by blocking the emergency of their daughter Mulikat as Speaker of the House. Today, APC chose a Yoruba man as VP which is higher and have significant importance than speaker. I don’t know how PDP will convince them to vote GEJ when they have a fellow ethnic nationality in a higher position. (They can’t still understand the advantage of Bankole to SW when he was Speaker).
Oyo State is classified into 4 zones. Ibadan, Oyo town, Ogbomosho, Oke-ogun and they are led by different gladiators. Ibadan is a strong hold of Ladoja and the incumbent Gov Ajumobi with voting power of 60 – 40% respectively. The most interesting thing is that Ibadan determines one-third of the voting strength with 11 LG. Ladoja will never canvass for PDP or APC because he knows their success in Presidential election will affect his chances. His bosom friend that led to his fallout with Obj is now a leader in APC (Atiku). The PDP Gov candidate Teslim is a nobody and carries no weight compared to the earlier two candidates in Ibadan. Therefore it is a clean a battle for APC in Ibadan.
Oyo town is locked down for APC because of the cordial relationship between the Oba and the Incumbent gov. This is the only town in SW that the Oba has lots of influence in the election in his domain. His son is a candidate of APC contesting for Fed. Rep.
Ogbomosho is another big town in SW and Oyo state. The big fish in this town is Alao Akala. His fallout with PDP is a big blow and will do anything to ensure that PDP does not win Presidential and Senatorial election because of his ambition to become the governor. The next strong gladiator to him is Hon. Buhari (APC) who is contesting for senate. He is not a match for Akala but he can climb on Akala’s grand stand against PDP senatorial candidate from Oke-ogun and his gubernatorial ambition.
Oke-ogun is a battle ground between PDP and APC. The deputy governor is from oke ogun while the incumbent senator is also from Oke ogun. Oke ogun have always been a APC enclave until Senator Agboola Hosea broke the jinx. Winning local election is different from national election, especially when the perspective of the PDP Presidential candidate in these areas is very poor.
Religion and ethnicity will play a major role.

VERDICT;
PDP 30% APC 70%

OGUN;

There is little to talk about here because, a son of the soil is involved. He is not just a son of the soil but a renowned professional religiously and excellent in his career. The fallout of Osoba from APC cannot deem the chance in the presidential race (it might in guber) because Osoba cannot work alongside with Gbenga Daniel. SDP National might adopt GEJ but Osoba will never because 2003 election mistake is still fresh in his memory.

VERDICT;
PDP 20% APC 80%

LAGOS;

History as always showed that candidate that Tinubu supports have always won the Presidential Election in Lagos state since 1999. Obj won Lagos in 2003 because AD did not field any Presidential Candidate. 2007 PDP lost Lagos state to Atiku because of Tinubu’s influence.
Tinubu strength in Lagos state can only be matched by Late Engr. Funsho Williams. Who understand the workings of Yoruba politics by not attempting to join the PDP at the National (he might get contracts but ensured he did not meddle into National Politics). He played his politics within Lagos and has the grassroot structure like Tinubu. He and Tinubu were contemporaries in AD 1998 before he left for PDP. Since his demise PDP Lagos has not been able to muscle such grass root structure again. The structure merged with Tinubu in 2007.
PDP needs to up their game which is already late. The fuel subsidy protest has painted the Fed government in bad light. The inability of the FG to bring the cabals, fraudsters to justice and the promised refinery is a big minus. This state is the commercial heart of the nation. Propaganda can’t fly to an extent because they feel the effect of government policies faster than any state in the federation. The state is blessed with different people all over the country because of his economic advantage which is perceived to be the hard work of the ruling party APC. Most of the eligible voters are knowledgeable, they are vast in one aspect or the other and well informed.

VERDICT;
PDP 30% APC 70%.

CONCLUSION;
Personally I don’t see PDP winning SW because of lots of factors that cannot be discussed at once. GEJ does not have a well trusted, respected Elder from Yoruba Land that some people will listen to across the 6 states in his team. No matter how u view it, Yoruba’s look up to some people because of their achievement in Life and success. Allowing Tinubu and OBj to work against him in the SW is the worst that can happen to a person.

Buhari/Osinbajo will win SW vote’s landslide.



@barcanista, @Gbawe

sunayo:


How come SW did not vote Buhari in 2011 when he had Tunde Bakare, more popular than Osinbajo? Another that will work against APC in SW is the growing hatred for Tinubu's over bearing influence. My friend, let us just wait till after 28th of March.

superstar1:


What worked for GEJ in SW then was the emotion and sentiments of NorthvsSouth divide, especially based on the manner he was denied the Presidential Seat during the absence of President Yar Adua as well as the Shoeless Mantra which most people felt was a departure from the the old guards that have held sway in these country for so long.

Unfortunately the shoeless man is our nightmate and it's time to repay him back for betraying the people trust and believe in.him.

sunayo:


Pls list the bethrayal and nightmares he has caused you and SW. Also tell me what has suddenly changed about Buhari since the last election. SW just realize Buhari is the messiah? Lol! Tinubu's packaging at work.

superstar1:


What is my business with Tinubu or Buhari? Do you think the middle class in SW cares about who is PDP or APC. They do certainly recognise a lying govt, a propaganda govt and a clueless govt.

If GEJ had delivered will he be running from pillar to post sharing our national reserves to obas that have no direct influence on voters.

GEJ supported
1. Corruption -- stealer oduah's odeshi proof cars, pension fund fraud, subsidy fraud, missing oil money etc Presidential pardon to corrupt politicians Alams, Bode George etc.

2. Insecurity -- under his watch 200chikdren vanished into thin air. The best he could do is to deny at first, later set up a tea committee to verify the authenticity of the story and later admitted after 3weeks. 13,000 have been killed under his watch and all of a sudden he wanted to end the war in 6weks after postponing the election. does that not tell you he could have end the war all along, he was promoting the war and the killings for his political gains.

3. Internationally irrelevant: I do not even want to go there at all. Under his watch, Niger has been summoning us, Chad his forming big brother for us. So sad.

4. Unemployment: under OBJ we could all see the jobs created without having to do any propaganda. Why is GEJ shouting on top of his voice for us to see the non-existent jobs he claimed he created.

5. Promoting Criminality by offering contract running to billions to his touts eg Tompolo, Dokubo, Ganiyu Adams etc

6. What unique problem has this president solved in 6years?

And you expect me to put 4years of my destiny into the hands of this Mama Peace Messiah again.

NEVER AGAIN.

DVanguard:
GEJ to win South West is a very difficult task but politics is a game which requires major and minor players. Lots of factors are against GEJ winning SW.
There are two major schools of thoughts in the South West;
1. The regional champions who believe they need to grow from their performance in the region to national politics. (The Progressives led by Tinubu)
2. The national champions who believe they can muscle they national spread on the regional SW politics. (The Conservatives led by Obj).
The two minority schools of thoughts in the SW;
1. The disgruntled or out of favour champions that falls out due to power play in their respective states in the progressive camp. (Progressive fallout – SDP and Afenifere)
2. The selected few that due to their closeness to the President and the fallout of their seeking relevance by taking order from Ota while they can do that with their closeness to the Presidency. (Conservative fallout)
South West politics is very dynamic; lots of factors determine their voting pattern. Local election cannot be used as a yardstick to decide their voting pattern. Most times their votes are determined by the value and quality of the candidate in the National Politics.
Factors SW consider when choosing candidate nationally based on history of their voting pattern since 1999 – 2011.
1. Perceived victim of victimization by the particular group/zone of people against a candidate. (for example yar’adua’s cabal against GEJ 2010).
2. National policies like fuel subsidy. (Fuel price in SW region is most times within the regulated price because of the understanding of its sensitivity of the policy to them).
3. They are most times less concerned about the National Politics as long as their local champion delivers on their said promises. (If one of their local champions is involved then they tend to partake).
4. They check the performance of the candidates based on the current reality on ground and pinch their tent with the one that will defend their interest most.
5. Political leaders are respected based on the perspective of the area within the regions they control. Political leader must have contributed meaningful to the area or state he belongs to, he must be seen to be humble and not abusive and must be seen to have a sense of direction.

GEJ lost the battle for SW by committing the worst blunder by allowing two major gladiators in a region to fight him. (Obj & Tinubu). Tinubu relevance in SW politics started 2003 when he was the only governor to survive the tactical blunder committed by his party members (AD) and Afenifere. Since then he had made his in root to the hearts of SW by producing Governors of impeccable characters and known for excellence in their professional field before joining politics. These are some of the factors that affect PDP in some of the state elections. Tinubu has been successful even in the face of defeat in Ondo and Ekiti election. Ondo Election was not about Tinubu but the exemplary performance of the governor Mimiko against an unknown Akeredolu (a legal luminary), it was a political blunder while that of Ekiti state is a politics that I don’t understand but the popularity of Fayose cannot be overlooked regardless of his thug like character. (Might be linked to the dissatisfaction of the civil servants against fayemi’s policy).
Obasanjo might not be relevant in the local politics of SW but he has always been the stabilizing factor in the SW conservative party. He single handed ensured the relevance of PDP in SW with finance and political position giving to his lieutenants. His inability to show significant development in the SW has not made him accepted as the Leader of Yoruba’s after being the President of Nigeria and them voting en-mass for him 2003. He has been a major source of success of PDP in the SW.

State by state analysis will be presumed on five factors namely;
1. Performance
2. Political structure
3. Political gladiators
4. Perspective of the ordinary SW.
5. Ethnicity/religion

EKITI;
Ekiti state will be a very tight race. The charisma and the do-or-die attitude of the Governor will play a major role, either positive or negative march 28 will decide. The incumbent will have a lot on his way because he still enjoys the goodwill of his people based on his flawless victory in his election. The negative aspect of it is that fayose have not been able to manage his success within his party rank. The state primaries have caused lot of problem between him and some of the gladiators that helped him during his election. Like Senator Arise and Senator Gbenga Aluko etc. He runs the state PDP like his personal property. He calls the shot which can go well for him or work against him. The opposition in the state have succeeded in painting him in bad light among the elite which has a minimal impact in local politics but heavy impact in National politics. The APC succeeded in mending fence with their arch rival LP candidate, he is back into their fold. The perspective of an average Yoruba man politically still believes in the school of thoughts of Awolowo, which Tinubu’s group have clung to over time. If APC follows Awolowo's ideology is a discussing for another day.
Finally, since 2011 politically the SW have been marginalised from National politics and no meaning full development in Ekiti from the Federal Govt., and there is this noise of ‘na our son make he dey there’ wont they want their fellow ethnic person be there too.

VERDICT:
Fayose is loved as a person but his ability to convince his people to vote GEJ is another task to see his doggedness against all odds.
If he succeeds PDP 55% while APC 45%, but if he fails PDP 35% APC 65%.

ONDO;

Ondo State is a state that the governor has lost his goodwill from the people due to lots of labour issue. The movement of from LP to PDP has weakling his political strength. The people he met in PDP moved to APC and some of the aggrieved members of his former LP who could not get recognition based on the movement from LP to PDP fell out and joined APC. Formerly the politics of Ondo state is shared along senatorial zones. Ondo North is the strong base of APC led by Boroface and co, Ondo Central is the strong base of LP led by the Gov himself Mimiko while Ondo South is led by late Agagu camp PDP. The current fall out has made APC strong in two senatorial zones while PDP Ondo Central.
Mimiko is the all in all today in Ondo PDP, while APC has leaders in every zone of the strength of Mimiko (but not as strong as mimiko). Their combination would defeat the campaign strategy of mimiko in National politics which can be impossible in Local politics. The problem with PDP in SW will be on what performance bases he will campaign. If he as a Governor campaigned based on his achievement in his state what will he campaign with as the president’s achievement in Ondo state.
The love his people had for him 2012 is lost which will play also a major role in his ability to convince the electorate. Our son syndrome will also play a major role.
The perspective of GEJ in this area is very poor. Forget the endorsement of falae and afenifere, Falae has never won any election he sponsored since 2003 in Akure. He is respected but that has never transcended to votes.

VERDICT;
PDP 30% APC 70%

OSUN ;

This is a no go area for PDP. Sen. Omisore is the only political gladiator in PDP. Omisore will have to slug it out with the Governor and the interest of the God father of APC VP Osinbanjo town. The other senatorial zone is a complete no go area for PDP.
Osun state is a complete lock down area for APC. Lots of factors favour APC. Discussing this state is a waste of energy.

VERDICT;
PDP 20% APC 80%

OYO;

This is a state that parades lots of gladiators in different zones of the state. But PDP have played lots of bad politics earlier which back fired against them. This a state that is Muslim dominated and religion sometimes plays a factor in their choice of candidature. PDP also played the card of APC frustrating the interest of Yoruba’s by blocking the emergency of their daughter Mulikat as Speaker of the House. Today, APC chose a Yoruba man as VP which is higher and have significant importance than speaker. I don’t know how PDP will convince them to vote GEJ when they have a fellow ethnic nationality in a higher position. (They can’t still understand the advantage of Bankole to SW when he was Speaker).
Oyo State is classified into 4 zones. Ibadan, Oyo town, Ogbomosho, Oke-ogun and they are led by different gladiators. Ibadan is a strong hold of Ladoja and the incumbent Gov Ajumobi with voting power of 60 – 40% respectively. The most interesting thing is that Ibadan determines one-third of the voting strength with 11 LG. Ladoja will never canvass for PDP or APC because he knows their success in Presidential election will affect his chances. His bosom friend that led to his fallout with Obj is now a leader in APC (Atiku). The PDP Gov candidate Teslim is a nobody and carries no weight compared to the earlier two candidates in Ibadan. Therefore it is a clean a battle for APC in Ibadan.
Oyo town is locked down for APC because of the cordial relationship between the Oba and the Incumbent gov. This is the only town in SW that the Oba has lots of influence in the election in his domain. His son is a candidate of APC contesting for Fed. Rep.
Ogbomosho is another big town in SW and Oyo state. The big fish in this town is Alao Akala. His fallout with PDP is a big blow and will do anything to ensure that PDP does not win Presidential and Senatorial election because of his ambition to become the governor. The next strong gladiator to him is Hon. Buhari (APC) who is contesting for senate. He is not a match for Akala but he can climb on Akala’s grand stand against PDP senatorial candidate from Oke-ogun and his gubernatorial ambition.
Oke-ogun is a battle ground between PDP and APC. The deputy governor is from oke ogun while the incumbent senator is also from Oke ogun. Oke ogun have always been a APC enclave until Senator Agboola Hosea broke the jinx. Winning local election is different from national election, especially when the perspective of the PDP Presidential candidate in these areas is very poor.
Religion and ethnicity will play a major role.

VERDICT;
PDP 30% APC 70%

OGUN;

There is little to talk about here because, a son of the soil is involved. He is not just a son of the soil but a renowned professional religiously and excellent in his career. The fallout of Osoba from APC cannot deem the chance in the presidential race (it might in guber) because Osoba cannot work alongside with Gbenga Daniel. SDP National might adopt GEJ but Osoba will never because 2003 election mistake is still fresh in his memory.

VERDICT;
PDP 20% APC 80%

LAGOS;

History as always showed that candidate that Tinubu supports have always won the Presidential Election in Lagos state since 1999. Obj won Lagos in 2003 because AD did not field any Presidential Candidate. 2007 PDP lost Lagos state to Atiku because of Tinubu’s influence.
Tinubu strength in Lagos state can only be matched by Late Engr. Funsho Williams. Who understand the workings of Yoruba politics by not attempting to join the PDP at the National (he might get contracts but ensured he did not meddle into National Politics). He played his politics within Lagos and has the grassroot structure like Tinubu. He and Tinubu were contemporaries in AD 1998 before he left for PDP. Since his demise PDP Lagos has not been able to muscle such grass root structure again. The structure merged with Tinubu in 2007.
PDP needs to up their game which is already late. The fuel subsidy protest has painted the Fed government in bad light. The inability of the FG to bring the cabals, fraudsters to justice and the promised refinery is a big minus. This state is the commercial heart of the nation. Propaganda can’t fly to an extent because they feel the effect of government policies faster than any state in the federation. The state is blessed with different people all over the country because of his economic advantage which is perceived to be the hard work of the ruling party APC. Most of the eligible voters are knowledgeable, they are vast in one aspect or the other and well informed.

VERDICT;
PDP 30% APC 70%.

CONCLUSION;
Personally I don’t see PDP winning SW because of lots of factors that cannot be discussed at once. GEJ does not have a well trusted, respected Elder from Yoruba Land that some people will listen to across the 6 states in his team. No matter how u view it, Yoruba’s look up to some people because of their achievement in Life and success. Allowing Tinubu and OBj to work against him in the SW is the worst that can happen to a person.

Buhari/Osinbajo will win SW vote’s landslide.



@barcanista, @Gbawe

PassingShot:
It is pure political naivety or deliberate self deceit for anyone to think that GEJ will win the SW in this election. I am currently doing an analysis of how the swing states will likely vote but here is a pointer:

Lagos State – prediction is APC 60%, PDP 40%

Ogun State APC 60%, PDP 40%

Osun State APC 70%, PDP 30%

Oyo State APC 60%, PDP 40%

Ondo APC 55%, PDP 45%

Ekiti State APC 45%, PDP 55%


Overall, APC will secure nothing less than 60% of total votes to PDP's 40%.