Some think it will be years before oil
returns to $90 or $100 a barrel, a price
that was pretty much the norm over the
last decade.
Michael Stravato for The New York Times

The oil industry, with its history of
booms and busts, is in its deepest
downturn since the 1990s, if not earlier.
Earnings are down for companies that
made record profits in recent years,
leading them to decommission more than
two-thirds of their rigs and sharply cut
investment in exploration and
production. Scores of companies have
gone bankrupt and an estimated 250,000
oil workers have lost their jobs.
The cause is the plunging price of a
barrel of oil, which has fallen more than
70 percent since June 2014.

Prices recovered a few times over the last
year, but the cost of a barrel of oil has
already sunk this year to levels not seen
since 2003 as an oil glut has taken hold .
Also contributing to the glut was Iran’s
return to the international oil market
after sanctions were lifted against the
country under an international
agreement with major world powers to
restrict its nuclear work that took effect
in January.

Executives think it will be years before
oil returns to $90 or $100 a barrel, a
price that was pretty much the norm
over the last decade.


Why has the price of oil been dropping? Why now?

This a complicated question, but it boils
down to the simple economics of supply
and demand.

United States domestic production has
nearly doubled over the last several
years, pushing out oil imports that need
to find another home. Saudi, Nigerian
and Algerian oil that once was sold in
the United States is suddenly competing
for Asian markets, and the producers are
forced to drop prices. Canadian and Iraqi
oil production and exports are rising
year after year. Even the Russians, with
all their economic problems, manage to
keep pumping.

There are signs, however, that production
is falling because of the drop in
exploration investments. RBC Capital
Markets has calculated projects capable
of producing more than a half million
barrels a day of oil were cancelled,
delayed or shelved by OPEC countries
alone last year, and this year promises
more of the same.

But the drop in production is not
happening fast enough, especially with
output from deep waters off the Gulf of
Mexico and Canada continuing to build
as new projects come online.

On the demand side, the economies of
Europe and developing countries are
weak and vehicles are becoming more
energy-efficient. So demand for fuel is
lagging a bit.


Who benefits from the price drop?

Any motorist can tell you that gasoline
prices have dropped. Diesel, heating oil
and natural gas prices have also fallen
sharply.

The latest drop in energy prices —
regular gas nationally now averages just
above $2 a gallon , roughly down about
40 cents from the same time a year ago
— is also disproportionately helping
lower-income groups, because fuel costs
eat up a larger share of their more
limited earnings.

Households that use heating oil to warm
their homes are also seeing savings.


Who loses?

For starters, oil-producing countries and
states. Venezuela, Nigeria, Ecuador,
Brazil and Russia are just a few
petrostates that are suffering economic
and perhaps even political turbulence.

The impact of Western sanctions caused
Iranian production to drop by about one
million barrels a day in recent years and
blocked Iran from importing the latest
Western oil field technology and
equipment. With sanctions now being
lifted, the Iranian oil industry is expected
to open the taps on production soon.

In the United States, there are now
virtually no wells that are profitable to
drill .

Chevron, Royal Dutch Shell and BP have
all announced cuts to their payrolls to
save cash, and they are in far better
shape than many smaller independent oil
and gas producers.

States like Alaska, North Dakota, Texas,
Oklahoma and Louisiana are facing
economic challenges .

There has also been an uptick in traffic
deaths as low gas prices have translated
to increased road travel. And many
young Saudis have seen cushy jobs
vanish.

What happened to OPEC?

Iran, Venezuela, Ecuador and Algeria
have all pressed OPEC, a cartel of oil
producers, to cut production to firm up
prices. At the same time, Iraq is actually
pumping more, and Iran is expected to
become a major exporter again.

Major producing countries will meet on
April 17 in Qatar, and some analysts
think a cut may be possible, especially if
oil prices approach $30 a barrel again.

King Salman, who assumed power in
Saudi Arabia in January 2015 , may find
it difficult to persuade other OPEC
members to keep steady against the
financial strains, even if Iran continues
to increase production. The International
Monetary Fund estimates that the
revenues of Saudi Arabia and its Persian
Gulf allies will slip by $300 billion this
year.


Is there a conspiracy to bring the price of oil down?

There are a number of conspiracy
theories floating around. Even some oil
executives are quietly noting that the
Saudis want to hurt Russia and Iran, and
so does the United States — motivation
enough for the two oil-producing nations
to force down prices. Dropping oil prices
in the 1980s did help bring down the
Soviet Union, after all.

But there is no evidence to support the
conspiracy theories, and Saudi Arabia
and the United States rarely coordinate
smoothly. And the Obama administration
is hardly in a position to coordinate the
drilling of hundreds of oil companies
seeking profits and answering to their
shareholders.


When are oil prices likely to recover?

Not anytime soon. Oil production is not
declining fast enough in the United States
and other countries, though that could
begin to change this year. But there are
signs that supply and demand — and
price — could recover some balance by
the end of 2016.

Oil markets have bounced back more
than 40 percent since hitting a low of
$26.21 a barrel in New York in early
February.

Some analysts, however, question how
long the recovery can be sustained
because the global oil market remains
substantially oversupplied. In the United
States, domestic stockpiles are at their
highest level in more than 80 years, and
are still growing.

But over the long term, demand for fuels
is recovering in some countries, and that
could help crude prices recover in the
next year or two.

source www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/business/energy-environment/oil-prices.html

babdap:
Yet some gullible Nigerians will still point fingers to PMB for the dwindling revenue from crude oil proceed.

Joel3:
who is blaming buhari? but I heard he said he will stabilize oil price?

enlightenedmind:
Well that analysis is completely flawed. It has conveniently omitted the part where "America control Iranian oil fields now". So when u say Iran is about to be a major oil exporter, u mean America is about to be a major oil exporter. If Nigeria leaves itself vulnerable as to allow the importation of American oil into this country, we are heading for doom. So We have our oil, let us refine it and if possible sell at a reasonable price to other African countries so they do not become slaves.

lawydewy:


OGA! correct yourself, you trying to say Iraq not Iran.No any Iranian Territories is under America.

enlightenedmind:

Thank you... Iraq