The line function for the security presence in the Niger Delta is preventive. That is, to protect and secure critical oil and gas assets and infrastructures in the region. The several security breaches occasioned by the activities of the Niger Delta Avengers; suggests that, there is ineffective security presence in the Niger Delta. Incident driven policing methods aimed at stopping pipeline vandalization, had failed to be result orienting.

Incident driven policing relies on limited information and limits policing objectives. There should be a progression to problem driven policing methods; which must address the underlying conditions that created the problem. The principle of good policing is to protect without provoking. This will be mutually beneficial to both the security men and the secured. An effective security system, permanently addresses the problem it seeks to solve. Militarization of the Niger Delta will not answer the Niger Delta Question. There must be a political solution to the Niger Delta Question.

Policing is different from soldiering. Both are tactical approaches to a security situation. A security system can be efficient and yet be ineffective. This is the paradox and irony of National Security. It is a national security imperative to win the hearts and minds of the peoples of the Niger Delta. The best ways to achieving this is through; public diplomacy, perception management and strategic communication. The Niger Delta struggle had become a resistance, against economic exploitation and political oppression. Therefore, the Federal Government should cease to be at policy cross road, concerning the Niger Delta Question.

The United States of America Marine Corps small wars manual notes that; “small wars are battles of ideas and battles for the perceptions and altitudes of target populations”. Terrorism is a low intensity conflict. Threat assessment should identify the development of new capabilities. Technology push should introduce new technology that will offer significant security and military advantages. The Niger Delta terrain had not been given strategic studies. And, so lessons were not learnt from the pre-amnesty combat situations.

There is national security justification for military presence in the Niger Delta. This is to sugar the pill and keep the jokers in the pack at bay. It is a run off the mill. But, when critical oil and gas infrastructures and assets are blown to bits and pieces in the region; there will be backhand compliments for the security presence. It is the method and not the motive that makes a terrorist. Stanley Milgram, a social psychologist warned in 1974 that; “the social psychology of this century reveals a major lesson; it is not so much the kind of person a man is as the kind of situation which he finds himself that determine how he will act”.

The Niger Delta security space, demands studied analysis by Law enforcement strategist. It also needs some measures of peace studies. The elements of effective security presence are external calm and internal alertness. Success in law enforcement is measured in lives saved and crimes prevented. Effective and innovative security policies must foster an atmosphere of understanding and mutual co operation. The public space can only be reclaimed strategically, through community partnership and multi-agency strategic thinking.

Defence strategies and policing methods are not the best forms of conflict management. There must be a national security strategy for peaceful resolution of the Niger Delta Question. Conflict is characterized by emotions and feelings. Conflict can be escalated and de-escalated. This depends on how it is handled. The antecedent conditions are emotion driven and they precipitate conflict behaviours. Emotions expressed during conflict are: frustration, anger and aggression.

Terrorism is conflict behaviour. The United States of America, Justice Department in year 2000 defined terrorism in its code of Federal Regulation as; “the unlawful use of force or violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government: the civilian population or any segment thereof in furtherance of a political or social objectives”. This is very instructive. Socially structured situations guide behaviour. Every conflict has a specific context, history and background. People do not come into situations empty headed. They have infinite store of living experience and extensive repertoire of strategies for reacting to events. A stimulus is an object or event that elicits behaviour. A response is the elicited behaviour.

So, security analysts should be able to decipher the stimulus that triggered the emergence of the Niger Delta Avengers and the security challenges. The poverty in the Niger Delta may just be a part of the explanation. There was no effective disarmament, demobilization, reintegration and transformation of the Niger Delta militants; as was envisioned in the 2009 Presidential Amnesty declaration. Also, the rapid development of the Niger Delta stated in the Amnesty declaration, was not implemented. So, there is a throwback. The security men can only play their roles as professionals. The political class failed to build on the peace that was created by the presidential amnesty declaration.

The Niger Delta Question is a political question. Political problems can best be solved politically. The structure shapes the character of law enforcement. Nigeria was designed by alien occupiers and had been battered with politicized tribalism. The country is suffering from national psychosis. And, people are turning towards ethnic prejudice and religious bigotry. The Niger Delta militants are ethnically motivated ethno-terrorists. Osama Bin Laden said “due to imbalance of power between our forces and the enemy forces, a suitable means of fighting must be adopted”. This explains why the Niger Delta Avengers opted for economic terrorism as a tactics.

But, can the Niger Delta militants operate without the support of the peoples of the Niger Delta? This question had been answered by Mao Tse-Tung, father of Chinese Revolution. Who said a guerilla movement can “neither survive nor flourish if it separates itself from the people’s sympathies and co operation”. There are two main categories of parties in every conflict situation. They are the main parties and shadows. Shadows are indirect or secondary parties who are not visible in the conflict. Their involvement in a conflict is usually by proxy. Shadows complicate conflict situations, because it is difficult to identify them and their roles in any conflict. There are many shadows in the Niger Delta conflict. Some of them are disgruntled politicians. Security units in the region must be very careful when they choose to work with intelligence gleaned from shadows.

Unarguably, the Niger Delta is the cash cow of the Nigerian nation. It provides about 80% of government total revenue and 90% of the country’s foreign exchange revenue. The region had been the subject of research publications and public discourse since the days of Henry Willinck commission. This explains why Chris Alagoa said “If the Niger Delta explodes, Nigeria goes with it”. The Niger Delta is the most economically viable component of the Nigerian state. It is the third largest wetland in the world with fragile eco systems and covers 17,000km of fresh water swamp forest eco-zone. The security space of the Niger Delta is very challenging but not insurmountable. There is no digital mapping and lack of GPS co-ordinates of oil and gas facilities in the region. This makes patrol less effective and response to security breaches very difficult.

A studied analysis of the situation in the Niger Delta reveals the presence of insurgent terrorism. There are three forms of insurgent conflicts. They are: terrorism, guerilla warfare and conventional warfare. Insurgent terrorism is purposeful rather than mindless. Bombing of oil and gas assets and infrastructures is a form of economic terrorism. Guerrilla warfare is the use of highly mobile hit and run attacks, by lightly or moderately armed groups; that seek to harass the enemy and gradually erode his will and capacity. Guerrilla warfare places a premium on flexibility, speed and deception. This tactics target government armed forces, police and their support units and sometimes key economic targets.

There should be concept definition and threat assessments in the security of the Niger Delta. The Niger Delta Avengers had shown a motivation for war. The military doctrine must be consistent with concept validation. Klaus Knorr described war potential of nations on the basis of: economic capacity, administrative competence and motivation for war. National security as a public good should be applicable with a sense of end-based thinking and rule based thinking. Pacifism and militarism are alternate choices. Militarism is the application of military violence to solving a situation. Pacifism is the non violent means of solving a problem. The cult of offensive doctrine suggest that: when a party to a conflict mobilizes for war, the other party will mobilize as well. This is the situation playing out in the Niger Delta.

Force Bray is a Citizen Journalist

This is an epistle I suspect lai Mohammed.

plenty grammar

11 th paragraph
4th line
Hearts and minds

The entire Nigerian policing system is outdated not just in the Niger Delta, I keep on maintaining that without a change in mentality from all angles we Will just be circulating

Thrash talking, what Yoruba people know how to do best.