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Flash Back: 2013 Okonjo-iwealer Prediction Of Recession - Politics - Nairaland

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Flash Back: 2013 Okonjo-iwealer Prediction Of Recession by 9jatriot(m): 11:20am On Sep 15, 2016
This was when the price of crude was still high, as far back as 2013 yet PDP would have us think they have a magic Wang and even had the audacity to ask for the resignation of PMB.
I can relate with ordinary Nigerians who genuinely feel the brunt of the crisis. How can you explain to a man that a cup of rice he used to buy at 140 naira is now 350 naira. For some of these unfortunate victims, they do not know what the price of crude is and have never known, for them I can understand if they blame Buhari. What I always find it difficult to get my head to wrap around is when PDP and other learned people who try to rewrite the script and claim that the present recession is caused by this government. A better discussion should be, we know the cause but what is the present economic team doing about it? and whatever it is, is it sufficient?
This prediction was in 2013, there was another one in 2014 by the same Okonjo-Iweala and yet another one in 2015. Watch this space for that of those years. Anyone who knows very basic economics and says he did not see this coming is being mischievous.

On Monday, June 10, at the third round of the 2013 ministerial platform in Abuja, Coordinating Minister for the Economy and Minister of Finance, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, spoke glowingly about the Nigerian economy, saying the fundamentals were strong and that the economy was buoyant beyond danger.

But a few hours later, on Tuesday, when all the doors were closed, the minister sang a different tune. She told her colleagues in government point blank that the Nigerian economy is shaky despite the official fundamentals and that drastic steps are needed to save it from collapse.

Mrs Okonjo-Iweala spoke at the 50th meeting of the 15-member Federal Government Economic Implementation Team held behind closed-doors at the presidential villa.
The implementation team is headed by the minister, and meets every week. It was established by President Goodluck Jonathan to oversee the effective implementation of decisions of the Economic Management Team chaired by the president.

Other members of the committee are the Ministers of Petroleum Resources, Power, Agriculture, Trade & Investment, Works and Health as well as the Ministers of State for Finance and Health, the Chief Economic Adviser to the President, the Special Adviser to the President (Monitoring & Evaluation), the Director-General of the Budget Office, the Director General of the Bureau of Public Enterprise and a Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria.

At Tuesday’s meeting, a presidency source said, the minister painted a gloomy picture of the economy and hinted that there was an urgent need for “stringent budgetary measures” to arrest the downward slide.

Although the meeting was convened to review the government’s plan to create 3.5 million jobs in the agriculture sector and consider the report of a subcommittee on the automotive industry, Mrs. Okonjo-Iweala could not hold back on the disturbing prospect of the economy.

The minister explained that crude oil production now hovers around a disturbing 1.3 million barrels per day, a figure far lower than that seen during the height of the protracted militancy in the Niger Delta.
The Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation, NNPC, had on April 18 reported a drop in crude oil production in the first quarter of 2013, January to March, which cost Nigeria a loss of crude oil revenue to the tune of $1.23 billion (N190 billion). That loss is now set to continue and the country might not be able to meet its obligation to its customers.
Mrs Okonjo-Iweala also informed the meeting that crude oil theft had continued unabated and was at its highest level ever despite the best effort by government to stem the tide.

Nigeria is estimated to lose about $6 billion annually to crude theft and the development, the minister lamented, is now severely hurting the economy.
The administration has paid several billions of naira to former Niger Delta militants to guard oil installations and block oil theft. But if anything, the situation has worsened.
At the meeting, the minister also predicted a further dip in national revenue following the increase in shale gas production around the world, a situation she said would definitely have serious adverse effect on oil prices and sales.

Shale gas, according to Wikipedia, is natural gas found trapped within shale formations and has become an increasingly important source of natural gas in the United States and the rest of the world.
Shale gas now provides over 20 percent of U.S. natural gas need and that figure is set to rise to 46 percent by 2035, according to the U.S. government’s Energy Information Administration.

Mrs Okonjo-Iweala hinted that as more and more countries depend on shale gas, the demand for Nigeria’s oil and gas would drop, with a corresponding dramatic drop in revenue.

The minister also lamented that the situation with the economy was not helped by the lack of accountability at the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, NNPC, saying the corporation had refused to render returns for its share of crude oil for local refining.

She thereafter informed her colleagues that beginning with the 2014 budget, there would be stringent budgetary measures and a lot of belt tightening within the government, our sources say.
She did not provide details of what the drastic measures would be, said one of our sources.
Mrs. Okonjo-Iweala has never been this frank in the open about the economy and its gloomy prospects.

She has said on several occasions that the economy was buoyant and strong, with its outlook remaining great, despite the current global economic uncertainty.
On Monday, she spoke along that line, asking Nigerians to ignore critics who have continued to insist that despite government claims, the economy was not in good shape.


http://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/138723-exclusive-okonjo-iweala-opens-up-says-nigeria-economy-in-danger.html

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Re: Flash Back: 2013 Okonjo-iwealer Prediction Of Recession by HungerBAD: 11:20am On Sep 15, 2016
Okonjo Iweala knew what she was talking about.

What puzzles me though,was that the PDP knew they were driving the Nigeria Economy to the ground,but still continued anyway.

Was there a way they would have handled the economy differently if they had won?I mean,the chief economic person is on record here predicting doom,so what would they have done differently?

Methinks,at the end of the day,even if it was PDP that was in Power,they would have still be dealing with this economic meltdown.

But the difference would be that,they would have looted the little money left for Nigerians to survive,and hidden it in their offshore accounts,or like Patience Jonathan did,in multiple accounts with their house help names.

4 Likes

Re: Flash Back: 2013 Okonjo-iwealer Prediction Of Recession by HtwoOw: 11:23am On Sep 15, 2016
Wailers come and see your life outside


Rochas Okorochas revealed this news a few months ago

They attacked him front right and center,

Okonjo Iweala begged me to to say Nigeria was cash strapped that was the statement, now the truth is being revealed I am expecting these bad Belle to say the news is fake


PDP bled Nigeria to recession Simple and they should bury their heads in shame instead of insulting the president

2 Likes

Re: Flash Back: 2013 Okonjo-iwealer Prediction Of Recession by TippyTop(m): 11:26am On Sep 15, 2016
This na old story na?

NOI was able to make Nigerian economy the biggest in Africa without blaming past administrations.

1 Like

Re: Flash Back: 2013 Okonjo-iwealer Prediction Of Recession by HtwoOw: 11:29am On Sep 15, 2016
Seun, lalasticlala, this is Fp worthy

2 Likes

Re: Flash Back: 2013 Okonjo-iwealer Prediction Of Recession by agwom(m): 11:29am On Sep 15, 2016
hmmm
Re: Flash Back: 2013 Okonjo-iwealer Prediction Of Recession by 9jatriot(m): 11:30am On Sep 15, 2016
This was in November 2014, price of crude at this time was about $75, compare that to a peak of $48 and an average of $35 for 2016 and yet these PDP with no shame will come and be making noise.

2014: Brace for tougher times ahead, Okonjo-Iweala tells Nigerians
Nigerians should brace for tougher economic times ahead, the Minister of Finance, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, has said as crude oil prices slipped to a four year low on Wednesday.

New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) December WTI oil futures sold at $75.20 per barrel on Wednesday, down $1.98, from $74.96 per barrel the previous day, the lowest level for a most-active contract since September 2010.

Though the price of sweet crude, the blend of oil export from Nigeria, rose marginally at the close of trading on Wednesday to $76.96 per barrel, it has already crashed below the $79 per barrel benchmark approved in the 2014 Appropriation Act, concerns are mounting that tough times are indeed ahead.

At the end of the Federation Accounts Allocation Committee (FAAC) meeting for September, Federal, States and Local Governments were only able to go home with N603.5 billion allocation after they resolved to borrow about $2.76 billion from the Excess Crude Revenue Account to augment shortfall in revenue generated during the period.

The Federal Government had attributed the declining revenues to the fall in prices at the international oil market.

After drawing from the ECA, Minister of State for Finance, Bashir Yuguda, said the balance in the account had dropped further from $4.1 billion to about $1.34 billion at the moment.

But Mrs. Okonjo-Iweala said in Lagos on Tuesday that the economic indicators show there are tougher times ahead.

Though she said the country’s External Reserves rose from $36.6billion at the end of June to $39.48billion by October 16, and the balance in the Sovereign Wealth Fund at $1.55billion, accruals from oil exports have been poor.

According to her, Nigeria would begin to feel the impact of the dropping oil prices at the international oil market, which commenced since the first half of the year.

“The country must brace up for tougher times ahead”, she said. “We need to review our expenditures and build economic buffers through budgets that would be based on modest oil prices.”

She underlined the importance of a sound macro-economic management to Nigeria at this time, particularly the need to plug all revenue leakages.

“We have not yet seen the impact of the falling oil prices in Nigeria. It will start this month. We have to drive the non-oil revenue base to be able to weather the storm that is coming,” the Minister said.

The minister said the fall in the prices of export commodities such as gold, iron ore and agricultural produce such as cocoa, cotton and coffee was bound to affect most African economies, which relied on commodity export for the sustenance of their economies.
http://www.premiumtimesng.com/business/171145-brace-tougher-times-ahead-okonjo-iweala-tells-nigerians.html

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Re: Flash Back: 2013 Okonjo-iwealer Prediction Of Recession by 9jatriot(m): 11:43am On Sep 15, 2016
I do not know if Adeosun is better than Okonjo-Iweala or not (irrespective of paper qualification) and we may never know until we also allow her handle an economy with crude selling above $100 for a period of at least 2 yrs. Those comparing the 2 really amazed me. One makes soup with all the meat, fish, kpalla and other ingredients available yet the food non sweet, yet you give the other one only salt and oil and you want it to be the correct taste that the one with all the ingredients could not achieve.

I am not an economics, but I know that there is no magic that will improve the economy if we do not improve our earnings either from crude or from other sources. Any other solution in my opinion is cosmetic or at best trying to reduce the effect. The way to have mitigated this effect would have been the ECA, we all should know the story of that one by now.
Well, I want to encourage the government of PMB to steer the ship with as much vigour and focus as he can muster. When hunger becomes real, reason begins to fail. There is so much hunger and no one can deny that, our hand that they can muster should be utilised to get out of this. Every country at one time or the other in their history also face recession, and they get out of it either stronger and sometimes better. Remember, what ever does not kill you will make you stronger.

This is the 2015 final warning before they were voted and chased out.
Following the continuous decline of the price of crude oil in the international market, the Federal Government on Thursday said it was preparing additional measures to mitigate the impact of the price drop on the Nigerian economy.

It also denied withdrawing the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework from the National Assembly, adding that the MTEF and the budget were with the lawmakers.

The Minister of Finance, Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, stated these in Abuja while speaking at the launch of the Action 2015 programme, where she had a dialogue with school children of 15 years of age.

Action 2015 is an international movement to call for more action in the area of fighting corruption, inequality and climate change, and it is based on the believe that 2015 can be a pivotal year that will change the future.

The concert-styled event had in attendance celebrities such as Genevieve Nnaji, Samson Siasia, Dbanj, Timi Dakolo, Praiz, Marvellous Odiete, Nike Laoye and Jaiye Keys, who lent their voices to the call for inclusive growth.

Okonjo-Iweala said the country was facing a challenging time because of the developments in the global economy, adding that this had necessitated the need for additional austerity measures.

The minister did not provide details of the additional measures being planned.

She had during a public presentation of the 2015 budget proposal listed the stoppage of the purchase of new furniture, and reduction in international travels and trainings by government officials by 50 per cent as some of the austerity measures to be taken this year to boost revenue.

Others are the implementation of the Stephen Orasanye committee’s report on the rationalisation of the civil service; and introduction of 10 per cent tax on private jets, three per cent surcharge on champagnes and one per cent property tax on mansions with value exceeding N300m.

Between December 17, 2014 when the budget proposal was submitted, with oil benchmark price pegged at $65 per barrel, and now, global oil prices have further crashed to around $46 per barrel.

The development has further heightened tension in the country because of the Federal Government’s almost total dependence on crude oil exports for its revenue

Specifically, Okonjo-Iweala told the children that 2015 would be a very difficult year for the economy, noting, however, that with appropriate fiscal and monetary policy instruments, the government would manage the economy in a manner that would be beneficial to all.

She said although the country could have moved faster in achieving its goal in the past, a lot of efforts had been put in place to ensure that it achieved the Millennium Development Goals.

The minister gave an assurance that despite the challenges facing the economy as a result of the drop in oil prices, the government was prepared to respond with additional austerity measures.

She said since the budget proposal was with the National Assembly, the government was monitoring developments around oil prices in order to come up with appropriate measures once the decline got to the lowest point.

The minister said, “We have to provide an environment for the children to grow so that they can become leaders that will uphold the values that we need such as honesty, hard work, truth and valuing the country above self.

“Even though the oil price is going down, the budget is with the National Assembly. Let me just tell you that measures are being put in place so that we can manage the budget and the economy at whatever the oil price bottoms out.

“Right now, no one knows the bottom because it is falling every day. Once it stabilises and we know the bottom, we will accompany it with appropriate measures. So, we are working everyday with scenarios; we are following exactly the plan we told Nigerians.

“There are scenarios at $55, $50 and below of the additional measures that will be needed, and I believe that though this will be a very difficult year for the country, we have the tools, we know how to apply them and we know that working together, we will be able to take this country through this year and then to a brighter 2016.”

On what is being done to assist the poor to mitigate the difficult times, Okonjo-Iweala said although things might look tough at the moment, the government was building a platform on which it would assist those at the bottom of the pyramid.

She said. “For one to help lift people out of poverty, we are doing something that is technological, which is trying to give every Nigerian a smartcard and your generation will be the one to mostly appreciate this.

“It will enable us to target those at the very bottom once they have a card to be able to help them with some assistance that can assure basic health care and their children being in school through a conditional cash transfer programme and that programme is being put together by the President.

“These are some of the things that will target and include more people who are left out now.”

She said the government was working towards providing an environment for the children to grow so that they could become leaders who would uphold the values of honesty, hard work, truth and valuing the country above self.

SOURCE: http://www.punchng.com/business/business-economy/more-austerity-measures-coming-okonjo-iweala/

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Re: Flash Back: 2013 Okonjo-iwealer Prediction Of Recession by shukuokukobambl: 12:55pm On Sep 15, 2016
9jatriot:
I do not know if Adeosun is better than Okonjo-Iweala or not (irrespective of paper qualification) and we may never know until we also allow her handle an economy with crude selling above $100 for a period of at least 2 yrs. Those comparing the 2 really amazed me. One makes soup with all the meat, fish, kpalla and other ingredients available yet the food non sweet, yet you give the other one only salt and oil and you want it to be the correct taste that the one with all the ingredients could not achieve.

I am not an economics, but I know that there is no magic that will improve the economy if we do not improve our earnings either from crude or from other sources. Any other solution in my opinion is cosmetic or at best trying to reduce the effect. The way to have mitigated this effect would have been the ECA, we all should know the story of that one by now.
Well, I want to encourage the government of PMB to steer the ship with as much vigour and focus as he can muster. When hunger becomes real, reason begins to fail. There is so much hunger and no one can deny that, our hand that they can muster should be utilised to get out of this. Every country at one time or the other in their history also face recession, and they get out of it either stronger and sometimes better. Remember, what ever does not kill you will make you stronger.

This is the 2015 final warning before they were voted and chased out.


SOURCE: http://www.punchng.com/business/business-economy/more-austerity-measures-coming-okonjo-iweala/

Hmmmmm......odiegwu!!
Re: Flash Back: 2013 Okonjo-iwealer Prediction Of Recession by TheGoodJoe(m): 1:06pm On Sep 15, 2016
lalasticlala, please come and see. Afraid is catching me with this revelation. It can lead to lamentations. A baffling prediction. Of the caused recession.

1 Like

Re: Flash Back: 2013 Okonjo-iwealer Prediction Of Recession by TheGoodJoe(m): 1:11pm On Sep 15, 2016
On Monday, June 10, at the third round of the 2013 ministerial platform in Abuja, Coordinating Minister for the Economy and Minister of Finance, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, spoke glowingly about the Nigerian economy, saying the fundamentals were strong and that the economy was buoyant beyond danger.

But a few hours later, on Tuesday, when all the doors were closed, the minister sang a different tune. She told her colleagues in government point blank that the Nigerian economy is shaky despite the official fundamentals and that drastic steps are needed to save it from collapse.


As I said before, the woman was a bloody liar. Deceived millions. I always saw through her lies. Even in recession, tribal bigots can not see.

1 Like

Re: Flash Back: 2013 Okonjo-iwealer Prediction Of Recession by cktheluckyman: 1:17pm On Sep 15, 2016
On Monday, June 10, at the third round of the 2013 ministerial platform in Abuja, Coordinating Minister for the Economy and Minister of Finance, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, spoke glowingly about the Nigerian economy, saying the fundamentals were strong and that the economy was buoyant beyond danger.

But a few hours later, on Tuesday, when all the doors were closed, the minister sang a different tune. She told her colleagues in government point blank that the Nigerian economy is shaky despite the official fundamentals and that drastic steps are needed to save


At Tuesday’s meeting, a presidency source said, the minister painted a gloomy picture of the economy and hinted that there was an urgent need for “stringent budgetary measures” to arrest the downward slide

what nonsense is this?are you for real? where exactly did NOI speak about recession in this report? The useless treport quoted an anonymous source and you are here ranting!!! You are so so pathetic!!! Gosh

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