The Budget Of Change: Sabotaged or Over Ambitious: Buhari, National Assembly, and Niger Delta Avengers

by Olokodana Bukhari.

Politics is not a popular topic at this point in time; Government critique is obviously a better-preferred topic. The 2016 budget promised a whole lot and delivered almost nothing, the reason for this is a combination of many factors. In all honesty, the framework seemed excellent, except the borrowing (deficit) part which was also excusable at the time. 

The 2016 budget started as the most expensive ever and is ending as the worst regarding performance, since 1999. Perhaps the numbers were unrealistic and over-ambitious, perhaps the was planning poor, perhaps it was sabotaged, perhaps over politicizing of issues, what went wrong?

President Muhammadu Buhari (What he did wrong):

Like a 'Windows 98' computer, President Buhari took too much time to boot upon his election. For a man who knew he stood a chance to win at the polls, he should have been better prepared. It took the president over six months after his victory to settle his cabinet and set up the system for governance. Up till this moment, agencies are still filled with appointees from the PDP regime, and we still have critical vacancies like Ambassadorial seats. The 2106 budget was presented on December 22nd (a few days to the end of the year). Late submission of the budget was clearly a bad precedence to set. 


 Investors are always careful, and they never want to get their hands burnt, they panic every time they sense a lack of clear direction, which was the case with Nigeria's FDI profile (Foreign Direct Investment) and Private sector investment which eventually starved the system of dollars. Opportunists, on the other hand, love to get down dirty, they like when there is a vacuum or unrest in governance, they try to exploit the system as a whole and build a profit model around things going wrong.    


Like a prophet with a message, Mr. President spent time and money trying to 're-brand' Nigeria's image by traveling to over twenty countries to remind them of how corrupt Nigerians are and how he wanted them to come and invest in Nigeria. America's president-elect has spent the past weeks convincing 'Ford motors and Carrier AC' to stay in America, clearly showing how wise it is to secure the little you have before searching for greener pastures.  


The good news is the fact that there are no indications of a better 2017 display from President Buhari as he is yet to submit his budget proposal to the House of Assembly for padding. Another good news is that our next budget will also be financed largely by Oil Proceeds since diversification drive seems to be a hoax.

National Assembly:

If we continue to monetize our politics and base our decisions at the ballot on other factors other than competency, we will continue to majorly get the highest bidders to make our laws. The 2016 budget was presented to the Nation Assembly on the 22nd of December 2016, and it took them three months of classic drama to pass (pad) the budget to law. Objective questions were not raised about budget financing, oil benchmark or why the federal government intends to borrow so much. The reason for the House of Assembly not digging into the gray areas of the budget is simple; they also have something to hide! The House of Assembly proposed a budget of 150 billion Naira without publishing the details; they clearly don't have the moral justification to blame anyone.    

Niger Delta Avengers:

Yeah, 'everyone' believes the Niger Delta Avengers are the sole reason for the poor outing of the budget, but I think they alongside Boko Haram, Ipob, Shiites, and Herdsmen are only a little part of the problem. President Buhari failed to communicate with the Nigerian public, especially the '5%', except in his inauguration day speech where he said he is for everyone. President Buhari left Nigerians in the dark and expected us to magically rely on his body language (odor) for policy direction. Do we now blame the Niger Delta Avengers for misreading Mr. President's body language or we blame the government for poor communication or handling of the situation? The amnesty program was the palm oil we had to sprinkle on the head of the devil in other to have our way. However, if you think the Niger Delta Avengers are acting in the interest of anyone but their pocket, then you need to take a reflective nap and wake up to reality.

For President Buhari, a quote from Hubert Humphrey says: "Expect Problems and eat the for breakfast"; Mr. President was clearly not prepared for the Avengers.

To the Niger Delta Avengers, a quote from Hubert Humphrey says: "The right to be heard does not automatically include the right to be taken seriously"; Avengers were expecting undeserved attention from the president. 


Summary of National budget for 2016: 

*GDP Growth Rate Projection: 4.37% *(presently at an average of -0.35%)*

*Revenue Projection: 3.86 trillion Naira *(presently under 2.4 trillion)*

*Deficit: 2.22 trillion Naira *(equivalent to 2.16% of Nigeria’s GDP)* 

*Oil Related Revenues: 820 Billion Naira *(No substantial to measure progress)*

*Non-oil Revenues: 1.45 trillion Naira *(surpassed projection, presently at 1.3 trillion)* 

*Projected Independent Revenues: 1.51 trillion *(No concrete data yet)*

*Naira Capital Expenditure: 1.8 trillion Naira *(30% of total budget)* 

*Special Intervention Programs: 300 billion Naira *(Still ongoing with N-power and free meal programs)* 

*Foreign and Domestic Debt Service: 1.36 trillion Naira *(majorly unfulfilled till date)*

*Non-debt Recurrent Expenditure: 2.65 trillion Naira *(salaries and pension)*