Abagworo:
Dollar availability determines its value. Whether Buhari or Jonathan once the country is not getting enough foreign exchange to offset Dollar demand then it will keep rising. To achieve lasting stability requires departure from absolute dependence on oil for foreign exchange.

So countries without oil have their exchange at 100000 to the dollar?
Why can't u people be reasonable and admit that buhari knows nothing about governance.

greenmonk:



So countries without oil have their exchange at 100000 to the dollar?
Why can't u people be reasonable and admit the buhari knows nothing about governance.

Bros in as much as I don't like the D of D I strongly disagree with you on this. You need to know more about mono economic foreign exchange source which is the major challenge but not excluding the poor economic policies of the D of D.

Itz obvious that GEJ followed the Economic policies of OBJ and refurbished it when he called back Ngozi Okonjo Iweala, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi and host of others, he picks the best irrespective of ur tribe and religion bc he thinks #Nigeria1st, and he z always quick to summon his teams for analysis and possible amendment if a certain policy didn't work, unlike PMB that appoints based on his personal relationship with u, not based on ur capacity and he lacked d economics acumen to understand what z happening in the background, and he z a slow or not good decision maker.

cktheluckyman:

Oil price was $60/barrel in may 2015 when GEJ Left office and has been above $50/barrel in the last 4 months

Selective amnesia. And less than 6 months after it dipped to as low as $28/barrel. Being at $50 over 4 months is what is making our reserves grow now as being reported. When naira gets devalued, how many times how u seen Naira gaining a significant value again later?

greenmonk:



So countries without oil have their exchange at 100000 to the dollar?
Why can't u people be reasonable and admit the buhari knows nothing about governance.

Shut up and be sensible. Check the economy of those who depend mainly on oil, including Almighty Saudi Arabia.

Pavarottii:
The two clowns above me, wat av u got to say now that oil price is between 53-55dollar per barrel now?

That is why the foreign reserve has been rising consistently since October of 2016. If Buhari can offset outstanding dollar demands of about 6 billion dollars and still have to grow the reserve at the current price of crude, what do you think he would've done as president if crude was over 120 dollars a barrel as it was in the previous administration? Stop calling people clowns, especially when you're much worse than that.

Metroescobar:



My friend shut up and stop disturbing the thread with your senseless posts abeg! Adults are trying to debate and no one wants to join you in barking about stale electoral propaganda so go and play with your mates in the sand!

See diz deformed, retarded vile scum filth of d earth feeling pained over his master's stupidity n exposed illiteracy! Go tell ur presidiot 2 show us his certificate...until then u can remain pained n if it keeps deteriorating...jst hang ur worthless slf
PS: don't 4get 2 live stream ur suicide u imbecille

FuckyourMama:


See diz deformed, retarded vile scum filth of d earth feeling pained over his master's stupidity n exposed illiteracy! Go tell ur presidiot 2 show us his certificate...until then u can remain pained n if it keeps deteriorating...jst hang ur worthless slf
PS: don't 4get 2 live stream ur suicide u imbecille

All this tears just for me? See as the truth I told about your pitiful life dey pain you?

LMFAO....abeg make I dance! E sweet me die!

progress69:


Selective amnesia. And less than 6 months after it dipped to as low as $28/barrel. Being at $50 over 4 months is what is making our reserves grow now as being reported. When naira gets devalued, how many times how u seen Naira gaining a significant value again later?

If you could read you would have seen where I wrote oil price has been over $50/barrel in the last four months

cktheluckyman:

If you could read you would have seen where I wrote oil price has been over $50/barrel in the last four months

If u are intelligent u will see where it is clearly written that the National reserves have been increasing because of the increment in oil price. Or what is ur point? If u think because oil price have been over $50/barrel for 4 months the value of Naira must increase too, then i am wasting my time on u.

baridamben:

That is why the foreign reserve has been rising consistently since October of 2016. If Buhari can offset outstanding dollar demands of about 6 billion dollars and still have to grow the reserve at the current price of crude, what do you think he would've done as president if crude was over 120 dollars a barrel as it was in the previous administration? Stop calling people clowns, especially when you're much worse than that.

Please tell me wen it was over 120 dollars 4 more than 3 months in d total administration?

greenmonk:



So countries without oil have their exchange at 100000 to the dollar?
Why can't u people be reasonable and admit that buhari knows nothing about governance.

Those countries without oil have other means of value they exchange, eg mineral resources, services, manufactured goods.

You shouldn't let your hatred for Buhari limit your thinking.

Metroescobar:



All this tears just for me? See as the truth I told about your pitiful life dey pain you?

LMFAO....abeg make I dance! E sweet me die!

Mtcheeewww! Get lost...see u at ur funeral

Pavarottii:

Please tell me wen it was over 120 dollars 4 more than 3 months in d total administration?

What was the average oil price during the previous administration.

Its average price was 100% higher than what we have today for most of the tenure.

progress69:


If u are intelligent u will see where it is clearly written that the National reserves have been increasing because of the increment in oil price. Or what is ur point? If u think because oil price have been over $50/barrel for 4 months the value of Naira must increase too, then i am wasting my time on u.

You can see why I said I wasn't going to educate anyone in my earlier post.

These people are some of the dumbest, daftest set of people you'll ever come across.

FuckyourMama:


Mtcheeewww! Get lost...see u at ur funeral

Don't stop crying na? Or you are mad that nobody wants to join you in looking for certificates or insulting other tribes today? Your pain gladdens me...

Frustrated Olodo....

All I know is that dollar was 280 when jona left not 170 it's was 185 under yaradua...

I don't like buhari. Neither do I like Jonathan

ba7man:
You can see why I said I wasn't going to educate anyone in my earlier post.

These people are some of the dumbest, daftest set of people you'll ever come across.

Pls don't hide under the cover of insult, explain ur counter opinion.

cktheluckyman:

Oil price was $60/barrel in may 2015 when GEJ Left office and has been above $50/barrel in the last 4 months

Don't mind that Afonja. They are now blaming it on oil when oil price has stabilized at over $50 for a yr now. The natural price of oil is over $50 per barrel. That's why oil producing countries are no longer crying!

It is because his (GOOD LUCK) age fall under the civil servant working age ;- ie his brain is still active, while now we have in power one, his age fall off the retired age of civil servants, (GRATE GRAND FATHER) ;- ie his brain has retired.

ITbomb:
There was confidence in the market so investors pumped in dollars into the economy, that helped naira to be stable but when Buhari came in without any definite economic policy and took 6 months to set up executive council, uncertainty crept in and the investors withdraw their dollars from the economy. That led to the free fall of the naira

The amount pumped in by investors is a drop of water compared to the ocean coming in from oil export. Oil price is purely the reason behind the drop in value of the naira because Nigeria depends on oil sales for over 90% of its forex. Of course, jonathanians would rather die than accept this simple fact.

With oil prices averaging $100 for Jonathan's tenure, there was high inflow of forex and the CBN then kept spending billions of dollars monthly to maintain the value of the naira at N160; thats is exactly what kept the value steady. But as soon as oil price dropped even under Jonathan's nose with his 'world class' crack economic team, naira dipped from 160 to 230 in the blackmarket, and this was despite the fact that the CBN then blasted $10billion within 6 months (Nov 14 - May 15) to struggle and keep the naira steady.

And yeah, talking about investors running away, nobody, not even the early morning akara seller takes their wares to a poor neighbourhood. Nigerias exinomy is a function of oil price, as soon as oul prices began to crash, and it was clear the econony was going to go down, investors started packing their bags.JP Morgan gave their first warning to delist Nigeria as early as February 2015, that was before anyone even dreamt that buhari was going to win elections. But then again, emotional Jonathanians would rather die than accept these facts.

obailala:
The amount pumped in by investors is a drop of water compared to the ocean coming in from oil export. Oil price is purely the reason behind the drop in value of the naira because Nigeria depends on oil sales for over 90% of its forex. Of course, jonathanians would rather die than accept this simple fact.

With oil prices averaging $100 for Jonathan's tenure, there was high inflow of forex and the CBN then kept spending billions of dollars monthly to maintain the value of the naira at N160; thats is exactly what kept the value steady. But as soon as oil price dropped even under Jonathan's nose with his 'world class' crack economic team, naira dipped from 160 to 230 in the blackmarket, and this was despite the fact that the CBN then blasted $10billion within 6 months (Nov 14 - May 15) to struggle and keep the naira steady.

And yeah, talking about investors running away, nobody, not even the early morning akara seller takes their wares to a poor neighbourhood. Nigerias exinomy is a function of oil price, as soon as oul prices began to crash, and it was clear the econony was going to go down, investors started packing their bags.JP Morgan gave their first warning to delist Nigeria as early as February 2015, that was before anyone even dreamt that buhari was going to win elections. But then again, emotional Jonathanians would rather die than accept these facts.

I was forced to like your post cos you gave your fact objectively not like the normal zombie response we are used to on nairaland

progress69:
Clownish question.

The value of Naira is determined mainly by the price of crude.

Jonathan rode on oil tide for 3 years, with nothing to show for it, even in the reserves.

We started feeling the heat of the dropping oil prices which forced Jonathan to devalue Naira to N197 to a dollar, which was trading at N232 to in the parallel market. Bare in mind that oil prices was still as high as $70-75/barrel and Nigeria was producing oil at full capacity. 2.2 million barrels/day.

What do u expect when oil price dipped to low as $28/barrel with little reserves to defend the Naira as was done by Sanusi.

What do u expect, when militants blow up pipelines and reduce our production level to as lownas 1600 million barrels pwr day ( interestingly those that wail the much are always very happy when a bpmb goes off on crude pipe)

Bare in mind that Sanusi used about 50% of the reserves then to defend the economy and Naira, yet Naira lost over 20% of its value. Luckily for Nigeria, or let me say unfortunately for Nigeria, Oil price picked again in a short time.

Why I said unfortunately is because, if oil didn't pick up so fast then, our leaders would have been serious about DIVERSIFICATION!

Rather than come here to justify such an incompetent President you voted in with these stale facts, why don't you ask him to do what other countries are doing to safeguard their economies? Oil was not always at $100 per barrel during Yaradua/GEJ administration, and yet we did not experience what is currently happening with the economy under Buhari. I still remember a time under Obasanjo's government when $35 per barrel was being used as a benchmark for the budget because of low oil prices then. Also during the same Obasanjo's government around 1999/2000, oil price went as low as $10 per barrel, yet Nigeria did not experience what we are currently seeing under Buhari. Stop deceiving yourself and making irrelevant excuses! You voted in a power-hungry and incompetent man and that is why he doesn't seem to know what to do about the economy and all he can do is give us excuses why the economy is bad rather than come up with solutions for fixing it!

obailala:
The amount pumped in by investors is a drop of water compared to the ocean coming in from oil export. Oil price is purely the reason behind the drop in value of the naira because Nigeria depends on oil sales for over 90% of its forex. Of course, jonathanians would rather die than accept this simple fact.

With oil prices averaging $100 for Jonathan's tenure, there was high inflow of forex and the CBN then kept spending billions of dollars monthly to maintain the value of the naira at N160; thats is exactly what kept the value steady. But as soon as oil price dropped even under Jonathan's nose with his 'world class' crack economic team, naira dipped from 160 to 230 in the blackmarket, and this was despite the fact that the CBN then blasted $10billion within 6 months (Nov 14 - May 15) to struggle and keep the naira steady.

And yeah, talking about investors running away, nobody, not even the early morning akara seller takes their wares to a poor neighbourhood. Nigerias exinomy is a function of oil price, as soon as oul prices began to crash, and it was clear the econony was going to go down, investors started packing their bags.JP Morgan gave their first warning to delist Nigeria as early as February 2015, that was before anyone even dreamt that buhari was going to win elections. But then again, emotional Jonathanians would rather die than accept these facts.

This narrative is such a silly cop-out. Yes, oil prices are crucial but Buhari's fixed exchange rate regime has made it economically unwise to bring in forex into Nigeria, except for remittances. This is the primary explanation for the collapse in non-oil sources of forex inflow which I noted in an earlier post:

--------
This is not true: We do not earn all our forex from crude oil exports. Remittances, capital inflow and non-oil exports contribute to forex inflows:

1) The World Bank has disclosed that Nigeria received a total of $21 billion from its citizens living abroad as home remittance in 2014 saying that growth of remittance is expected to slow this year.

Source: http://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/04/nigerians-living-abroad-remitted-21bn-in-2014-world-bank/

2) Represented by the Director, Development Finance of the CBN, Dr Mudashiru Olaitan, Emefiele blamed the decline of non oil revenue on the low level of loans to exporters which invariably contributed to the decline in non oil export revenue receipts from $10.53billion in 2014 to $4.39billion in 2015.

Source: http://www.vanguardngr.com/2016/01/cbn-blames-declining-non-oil-revenue-on-low-export-loans/

3) For instance, figures obtained by the National Bureau of Statistics stated that as of 2013, the country had a total investment inflow of $21.32bn (N4.2tn). This figure, according to an analysis of the report, declined to $20.72bn (N4.08tn) and $9.64bn (N1.89tn) in the 2014 and 2015 fiscal periods respectively.*

Source: http://investadvocate.com.ng/2016/03/07/investment-inflow-nigeria-drops-n2-3tn/

From the above 3, non-oil sources of forex in 2014 totalled $52bn -$21bn in remittances, $10.5bn in non-oil exports and $20.7bn in investment inflows. So all the Nigerian government needed to do was make sure the 3 non-oil sources of forex inflow continued to grow to offset the reduction in oil export income. Instead, by displaying a disinterest in setting a clear policy direction and implementing the boneheaded fixed exchange rate policy; 2) and 3) above declined very fast making things even worse than they ordinarily would have been.

---------

* Investment inflow was down to $5bn in 2016. Worst figures in 10 years. See here:[url] http://investorsking.com/investment-inflow-nigeria-drops-10-year-low/[/url]

Edelweiss44:


Rather than come here to justify such an incompetent President you voted in with these stale facts, why don't you ask him to do what other countries are doing to safeguard their economies? Oil was not always at $100 per barrel during Yaradua/GEJ administration, and yet we did not experience what is currently happening with the economy under Buhari. I still remember a time under Obasanjo's government when $35 per barrel was being used as a benchmark for the budget because of low oil prices then. Also during the same Obasanjo's government around 1999/2000, oil price went as low as $10 per barrel, yet Nigeria did not experience what we are currently seeing under Buhari. Stop deceiving yourself and making irrelevant excuses! You voted in a power-hungry and incompetent man and that is why he doesn't seem to know what to do about the economy and all he can do is give us excuses why the economy is bad rather than come up with solutions for fixing it!

Look here Mr. Ain't get time for kindergarten lame arguments. It's obvious u don't even know the correlation between the value of dollar and oil, not to talk about our drop in oil price will affect Naira plus any mono economy country. I reverted to the the question asked, if u are not ok.with it. U can go to blazes.
And for your info. Ya'radua sold oil well above $140/ barrel that was why he was able to grow the reserves from $42bn to about $64bn in a short while, which was in turn used to defend the economy and naira when their oil price fell. Over $30bn was used to defend the economy then, which is $1bn above what ur hero left when leaving office. Hope u have a little education now?

tankara1010:


Don't mind that Afonja. They are now blaming it on oil when oil price has stabilized at over $50 for a yr now. The natural price of oil is over $50 per barrel. That's why oil producing countries are no longer crying!

Look here, i am from Edo state. All this sensless afonja rants changes nothing. Your shameful lies will explode in your face. Even the yoot that u quoted states clearly that oil has been $50 for 4 months, wherever u got ur 1 year, is ur business. And if u are expecting a sharp appriciation as a result of that, u need to have ur brain examined or u are simply grossly unintelligent.

progress69:


Look here Mr. Ain't get time for kindergarten lame arguments. It's obvious u don't even know the correlation between the value of dollar and oil, not to talk about our drop in oil price will affect Naira plus any mono economy country. I reverted to the the question asked, if u are not ok.with it. U can go to blazes.
And for your info. Ya'radua sold oil well above $140/ barrel that was why he was able to grow the reserves from $42bn to about $64bn in a short while, which was in turn used to defend the economy and naira when their oil price fell. Over $30bn was used to defend the economy then, which is $1bn above what ur hero left when leaving office. Hope u have a little education now?

Why did non-oil exports fall by 60% within one year and investment inflow fall by more than 75% as my earlier post highlighted? Is this also down to oil prices?

The loss in the Naira's value isn't simply an oil story: it also reflects a loss of confidence in the present regime and this explains why foreign investors are not responding positively to the removal of the previous corrupt regime.

BlackBaron:
High oil prices
Demand and supply...

The first is obvious.

Demand and supply was helped largely by the volume of fx in circulation under Jonathan. There was a lot of contracts and also a lot of hard currency exchanges via politicians which fed the bdc market. Couple that to the liberal attitude to bdc by CBN by way of high fx sales. It always managed to be in excess of supply or just about.

Fair enough, while politician hand downs are evil and were a proportion of fx inflows for bdc. Buhari obviously cracked down on this, but he's also stopped spending completely. This has left the market completely drained of fx and with demand soaring. It's getting worse.

It's ironic Mr Buhari is absolutely clueless with no alternative to limit fx scarcity also went on to limit the amount of fx inflows into the economy by limiting fx from bdc to $8000 monthly via the CBN. This absolutely meagre sum can not even scratch the surface unfortunately and so here we are with crippling economic conditions.

You sir are one brilliant chap. You have eyes that SEE and not the one that LOOK. This is the reason for our economic meltdown. I really pity those still hailing Buhari.

progress69:


Stop this stale thrash. BH started Violence under an Yaradua who is from the North.

And Chibok girls.

NOI WAS IN CHARGE.

sdindan:


And Chibok girls.

Is a casualty of BH, which started under a Northern PDP President, so what's ur point?

progress69:


Look here Mr. Ain't get time for kindergarten lame arguments. It's obvious u don't even know the correlation between the value of dollar and oil, not to talk about our drop in oil price will affect Naira plus any mono economy country. I reverted to the the question asked, if u are not ok.with it. U can go to blazes.
And for your info. Ya'radua sold oil well above $140/ barrel that was why he was able to grow the reserves from $42bn to about $64bn in a short while, which was in turn used to defend the economy and naira when their oil price fell. Over $30bn was used to defend the economy then, which is $1bn above what ur hero left when leaving office. Hope u have a little education now?

Mr Buhari's propagandist, I'm sorry for you and your so-called "expert knowledge". At your age and with your supposed level of high education, you still supported and voted for an unintelligent dullard who cannot even produce an authentic school cert! Shame on you! Look at how the country's economy is now looking like your president's confused life!

You want to tell me that there are no competent technocrats who know what to do under the current situation to salvage the economy? And you're here defending a total failure instead of asking him to do exactly what he was elected to do. Your principal, Buhari was elected by those who supported him so that he can fix the economy! Not to come and give us useless excuses why the economy cannot be fixed. If the economy was too bad for him to fix, then why did he contest to be president? In fact, I don't blame him. It's folks like you who would vote an unintelligent dullard like him to rule a complex nation like Nigeria that I blame! In case you are not aware, the economic recession happening in Nigeria today is almost exactly like what happened in Nigeria between 1983 - 1985 under Buhari's first regime. Go on google and search for stories on Buhari's past regime. Listen to IBB's 1985 coup speech and see all the things he mentioned as "excuses" for overthrowing Buhari to "save Nigerians". Whether he ended up saving Nigerians or not is another matter for another day, but the fact is tbat the economic reasons he mentioned were valid.

What Nigeria needs is an intelligent and sincere leader to come up with intelligent solutions to our problems, not a dullard who only knows how to give excuses why the economy is bad and can't be fixed by him!