biina:

A statement that I agree with in its entirety. Its just sad that you lack the needed introspection to make optimal use of it.
Thanks for the link, but I 'll pass. I have no intention of mastering yukawa interaction nor particulate physics in genral. I am content with my 'little' area of expertise.

A bit earlier on in this exchange, I pointed out your mistakes to you. They are the mistakes of a loudmouth, you start talking about the speed of light when we are discussing gas, coal, solar, wind and wave energy; trying to look smart by name dropping and achieving high stup!dity instead. Chai!!!!!!

Do you need the speed of light and Einstein to do your NEPA work, taking light these days? Cow.

www.nairaland.com/attachments/180447_ROTFLMAO_gif3d0c775232c7f27cf80592785b9635b6

Keep to the topic at hand or sharap. Einstein my foot. Ode.

@beaf
biina cant possibly work for PHCN, someone that smart woulda upped and left since. . .trust me, i know.

while i admire the way you reason things out, there's something that cost you this arguement(apart from the insults na wa o) your arguements were not rooted in reality, you are well read, and that showed through in your points, but you were out of your water. The points you described as unnecessary english earlier are actually really important when it comes to determining the best way to meet the power requirements for an area, powering places is not just about getting the light bulbs on, it's about getting them on in the most efficient way possible(although we need to get them on in the first place in naija), thats why all those technologies you mentioned are not being deployed commercially.


@biina
i'm impressed you didnt descend to insults(even though sometimes you were barely civil), when you say decentralise PHCN what do you mean? it's already been done, we have the GENCOS, TRANSYSCO and the DISCOS, but apart from that your posts showed you have a better understanding of the NEPS(nigerian electric power sector) than beaf(hell i'm sure u understand it better than me sef). . .however beaf was more explicit in his suggestions, (even if they had no basis in reality as is defined by the situation on ground, ).

i daresay the problems of the power sector will be solved finally and comprehensively, if people like beaf and biina can come together and put their differences aside. ^{er'one else on the thread was just talking from their hineys}


@beaf and biina
what do you guys say we give a developmental section one more shot? i'm ready to armtwist seun and indeed anyone that needs armtwisting so it comes to fruition this time. . .its stuff like this we need to move nigeria forward not all the tribal bashing and what-not!

Beaf:

A bit earlier on in this exchange, I pointed out your mistakes to you. They are the mistakes of a loudmouth, you start talking about the speed of light when we are discussing gas, coal, solar, wind and wave energy; trying to look smart by name dropping and achieving high stup!dity instead. Chai!!!!!!

Do you need the speed of light and Einstein to do your NEPA work, taking light these days? Cow.

www.nairaland.com/attachments/180447_ROTFLMAO_gif3d0c775232c7f27cf80592785b9635b6

Keep to the topic at hand or sharap. Einstein my foot. Ode.

At no point have you successfully pointed out any mistake I might have made. I have exposed all your claims (from the doomed decentralization solution, to your blunder on the laws of motion) as being that of a simple charlatan.
I made an illustration using the speed of light, on that being new is not a requirement for being right. Its obvious the illustration was lost on a 'great' physicist such as yourself.
Still my illustration using the speed of light is more relevant than yours on impregnating women.
You have contributed nothing but wild claims, and are yet to make a genuine contribution/suggestion towards solving the problem of power supply in Nigeria. It would do the thread a lot of good if in the future you resisted the urge to tap you keyboard before thinking things through.

^
You exposed nothing (aside from your being a glorified name dropper / dinosaur).

and i take it you two are still going to argue like children simply cos u cant agree with each other on issues that wont put food on either of your tables?. . .SMH nigerians

netotse:

and i take it you two are still going to argue like children simply cos u cant agree with each other on issues that wont put food on either of your tables?. . .SMH nigerians

Don't vex jare, I tried to hug the guy and let bygones be bygones, he rejected it and started waxing holy. . .Thats why I'm here giving him a black eye .

I hereby call Beaf and Biina to orderrrrrrrrrr!!

I've skimmed through their posts and they are both very passionate about their positions on the matter. Basically, Beaf is stressing decentralization while Biina is not.  I venture to say that they are both completely wrong, as a practical matter in their positions.

The solution lies in a combination of what they are both saying. Beaf appears to be a physicist (na him dey help MEND rig explosives, olodo), but he has ignored certain important facts. I will add that biina has ignored some of these facts as well.

First of all, I submit to to that if we Nigeria were able to generate 10,000MW of power today, most households would not see a significant change in the interruptibility of power supply to their homes. This is because electricity cannot be stored and must be used when produced, you cannot as a practical matter store 5,000MW in any capacitor.  You see, the generated electricity must pass through transmission lines, poles, transformers, and copper wires etc before they get to our houses. Unfortunately, we have broken circuits all over the distribution systems that cause electricity to take the most inefficient routes before they get to our homes, that is if they make it there in the first place.  The distribution system has been basically destroyed by Igbo boys who steal copper within the system  for sale in ariara market.    Ok OK, don't crusify me, that was a cheap shot, I apologize to by Igbo brothers.  I meant to say, vandals and thieves steal copper and even poles, seriously contributing to the said inefficiency.

Without writing 10pages of text, here is my summary as to how things should be organized:

Transmission:

The Transmission system in Nigeria is the only electrical system that works, we even transmit electricity to Ghana and Niger republic and other countries. We are unable to use all of the 2000 - 4000MW capacity and since we can't store the energy, we end up transmitting abroad. The government should keep control of the transmission grid.  The transmission system in the control of the wrong people could pose a very real security thread, hence the feds should maintain control here.

Generation:

The government can continue to participate in this phase, but encourage and provide more incentives for IPPs such as GENCOS, TRANSYSCO, DISCOS, and others. Additionally, tax breaks and other incentives should be given to corporations, states, and local governments who wish to build small generation plants to power their operations wherein their excess power can be supplied into the nation's power grid.  

Distribution

This area provides the best opportunity for complete decentrilization. The usual suspects mentioned above steal copper and other equipment including transformers with impunity. If these assets are owned by for profit corporations, the thieves will not get away with these thefts since corporations will take appropriate steps to safeguard their assets. My proposal here is for this sector to be completely decentralized. The feds should sell these assets for pennies to preferably, joint ventures of proven utilities with international reach and indigenous companies. There are several utilities that operate internationally. For example, I know of a Utility company with operations in US, UK, and several South American companies.  


The problem in the national assembly is not different from what we see with Beaf and Biina - swollen headedness instead of reasonableness and discussions without abuses.

I suspect Beaf is not used to cool headed discussions because he has been hardened by MEND activities, olodo.

^
You have captured my vision almost a 100%, but not quite. I will prefer much more atomisation in the distribution and generation sectors (I'll be back to explain).

Now, please go check ya door (Jomo Gbomo is knocking ).

@netotse
'decentralization' was beaf's suggestion not mine, saying that each individual/household should be responsible for generating their own power supply and that there is no need for us to have a grid. I simply told him that he didnt know what he was talking about.

The breakup into GenCo (Power generation), TransCo (Transmission) and DisCo (distribution) is the first step in what I believe is the right direction. With the various phases separated we can more easily identify what the technical and/or administrative short comings are.

The next step would be determining the structure of ownership of these entities. While entirely FG ownership has obviously failed to deliver, a total private sector ownership (either foreign or local) will simply leave the people and the entire country at the mercy of some individuals (most who likely embezzled tax payers money in the first place)

Some people want the sector privatized, using the telecoms an example. But telecoms and the power sector operate under different market models. While in telecoms I can easily switch providers if am dis-satisfied with the product, in power, your location determines your provider leaving the customer no choice but relocation. Case in point, the wholly privatized sector attempted by the US has shown some serious problems, with private entities only interested in the major metropolitan areas where the large economies of scale guarantees wide margins, and have had to be complemented by about 3000 public owned utilities who are forced to operate at lesser margins.
Similarly on the generation side, you require PPAs which are long term contract that guarantee income to IPPs which implicitly kills the competition as the PPAs insulates each IPP from the rest. Malaysia has recently fallen into this pitfall.  Essentially power distribution is not a competitive sector and thus cannot be expected to work like telecoms.

For Generation: I think the Hydro stations, cause of their geo-political importance (both nationally and internationally) should be left with at least 51% with the FG . The IPP can come on board with with technologies like fossil fuels and some renewable sources like solar farms. I am a bit skeptical with letting the oil companies own IPPs as I think we are further selling our energy position to foreign entities. I would prefer the governemnt (state and FG) be accountable for at least 70% of capacity by owning majority shares in most of the power plants.

For transmission: This should be another majority (51%) government stake entity. We need only one transmission entity and cant afford for it to be controlled by some individuals. The government need to protect the interest of the people when signing PPAs and SLAs (this will affect tariffs)

Distribution: This should be on a regional basis, with each state (or group of state) being responsible for at least 51% of the stake. The private sector, aside from being involved directly in the distribution company, can come in also as outsourced revenue collectors.

Tariff determination should be primarily under government (both state and FG) control, with private investors having enough representations to ensure they are not unfairly treated and provide some transparency.

@ Beaf & Biina

You guys are great, at least with the research you have both gone through, I hope you could perform some miracle to better Nigerians lot if appointed or I may be wrong as many intelligent orators in the past (like F. Kayo, ) that just got there to eventually became EFCC specimen. Anyway,you can both send me ur CVs maybe I can introduce you  to President Jo.

@becomrich
How do we start consultation with the appropriate clicks? 'cos you seems to be the only one here that understands the only true and lasting solution to d case called Naija so that we can guarantee a future for our people.

ndu_chucks:

I hereby call Beaf and Biina to orderrrrrrrrrr!!

I've skimmed through their posts and they are both very passionate about their positions on the matter. Basically, Beaf is stressing decentralization while Biina is not.  I venture to say that they are both completely wrong, as a practical matter in their positions.

The solution lies in a combination of what they are both saying. Beaf appears to be a physicist (na him dey help MEND rig explosives, olodo), but he has ignored certain important facts. I will add that biina has ignored some of these facts as well.

i like this part. . .esp resolving that both of them are wrong

First of all, I submit to to that if we Nigeria were able to generate 10,000MW of power today, most households would not see a significant change in the interruptibility of power supply to their homes. This is because electricity cannot be stored and must be used when produced, you cannot as a practical matter store 5,000MW in any capacitor.  You see, the generated electricity must pass through transmission lines, poles, transformers, and copper wires etc before they get to our houses. Unfortunately, we have broken circuits all over the distribution systems that cause electricity to take the most inefficient routes before they get to our homes, that is if they make it there in the first place.  The distribution system has been basically destroyed by Igbo boys who steal copper within the system  for sale in ariara market.    Ok OK, don't crusify me, that was a cheap shot, I apologize to by Igbo brothers.  I meant to say, vandals and thieves steal copper and even poles, seriously contributing to the said inefficiency.

Without writing 10pages of text, here is my summary as to how things should be organized:

you have a point there, but not in the way you know it. . .the transmission grid is ineffiecient and cant wheel more that 4000MW now

Transmission:

The Transmission system in Nigeria is the only electrical system that works, we even transmit electricity to Ghana and Niger republic and other countries. We are unable to use all of the 2000 - 4000MW capacity and since we can't store the energy, we end up transmitting abroad. The government should keep control of the transmission grid.  The transmission system in the control of the wrong people could pose a very real security thread, hence the feds should maintain control here.

we dont give ghana light. . .stop lying jo , the reason we give niger light is so they dont dam the river niger, of which they are even planning to do so. . .the fed govt isn't planning to unbundle transysco. btw, you dont want to argue transmission in naija with me. . .trust me on that

Generation:

The government can continue to participate in this phase, but encourage and provide more incentives for IPPs such as GENCOS, TRANSYSCO, DISCOS, and others. Additionally, tax breaks and other incentives should be given to corporations, states, and local governments who wish to build small generation plants to power their operations wherein their excess power can be supplied into the nation's power grid.  

this makes perfect sense. . .especially when you consider it takes 10years to break even when you build a power plant(i'm not joking)

Distribution

This area provides the best opportunity for complete decentrilization. The usual suspects mentioned above steal copper and other equipment including transformers with impunity. If these assets are owned by for profit corporations, the thieves will not get away with these thefts since corporations will take appropriate steps to safeguard their assets. My proposal here is for this sector to be completely decentralized. The feds should sell these assets for pennies to preferably, joint ventures of proven utilities with international reach and indigenous companies. There are several utilities that operate internationally. For example, I know of a Utility company with operations in US, UK, and several South American companies.  

sell what for pennies? are you sure they aren't calling your name somewhere? distribution revenue is arnd 8billion a month, sell something like that for pennies abi?

The problem in the national assembly is not different from what we see with Beaf and Biina - swollen headedness instead of reasonableness and discussions without abuses.

I suspect Beaf is not used to cool headed discussions because he has been hardened by MEND activities, olodo.

true talk my brother

note:i know i said PHCN earns 8billion a month as revenue, but guess what? it isn't enough. . .its mostly spent on wages and stuff, the power sector is still being funded by govt.

netotse:

sell what for pennies? are you sure they aren't calling your name somewhere? distribution revenue is arnd 8billion

note:i know i said PHCN earns 8billion a month as revenue, but guess what? it isn't enough. . .its mostly spent on wages and stuff, the power sector is still being funded by govt.

I meant sell for pennies my brother, but with very specific and stringent conditions. There must be a requirement to rebuild the infrastructure by investing a lot of money that would have been used to purchase distribution assets - this will produce very quick results. The said N8billion/month revenue could become N80billion/month in no time at all resulting to cool tax revenues for the government.

All in all, your point is well taken.

biina:

@netotse
'decentralization' was beaf's suggestion not mine, saying that each individual/household should be responsible for generating their own power supply and that there is no need for us to have a grid. I simply told him that he didnt know what he was talking about.

The breakup into GenCo (Power generation), TransCo (Transmission) and DisCo (distribution) is the first step in what I believe is the right direction. With the various phases separated we can more easily identify what the technical and/or administrative short comings are.

The next step would be determining the structure of ownership of these entities. While entirely FG ownership has obviously failed to deliver, a total private sector ownership (either foreign or local) will simply leave the people and the entire country at the mercy of some individuals (most who likely embezzled tax payers money in the first place)

Some people want the sector privatized, using the telecoms an example. But telecoms and the power sector operate under different market models. While in telecoms I can easily switch providers if am dis-satisfied with the product, in power, your location determines your provider leaving the customer no choice but relocation. Case in point, the wholly privatized sector attempted by the US has shown some serious problems, with private entities only interested in the major metropolitan areas where the large economies of scale guarantees wide margins, and have had to be complemented by about 3000 public owned utilities who are forced to operate at lesser margins.
Similarly on the generation side, you require PPAs which are long term contract that guarantee income to IPPs which implicitly kills the competition as the PPAs insulates each IPP from the rest. Malaysia has recently fallen into this pitfall.  Essentially power distribution is not a competitive sector and thus cannot be expected to work like telecoms.

For Generation: I think the Hydro stations, cause of their geo-political importance (both nationally and internationally) should be left with at least 51% with the FG . The IPP can come on board with with technologies like fossil fuels and some renewable sources like solar farms. I am a bit skeptical with letting the oil companies own IPPs as I think we are further selling our energy position to foreign entities. I would prefer the governemnt (state and FG) be accountable for at least 70% of capacity by owning majority shares in most of the power plants.

For transmission: This should be another majority (51%) government stake entity. We need only one transmission entity and cant afford for it to be controlled by some individuals. The government need to protect the interest of the people when signing PPAs and SLAs (this will affect tariffs)

Distribution: This should be on a regional basis, with each state (or group of state) being responsible for at least 51% of the stake. The private sector, aside from being involved directly in the distribution company, can come in also as outsourced revenue collectors.

Tariff determination should be primarily under government (both state and FG) control, with private investors having enough representations to ensure they are not unfairly treated and provide some transparency.

beaf has a point, in a way. . .our energy mix is messed up, 70percent fossil and 30percent hydro (and sometimes the hydro are supplying more to the grid than the fossil), you yourself said we need more generation and given the niger-delta militants, fossil stations just might not be the best(even though all the taeg stuff was you guys just wanting to outdo each other)

your analysis up there is on point! the part i dont agree with is the 51% for transmission though, i think its too small. . .but other than that, what you wrote up there is primarily what government plans to do(i've read the strategic plans for the power sector, dont ask me where ) except that they're encouraging all the IOCs to set up power stations(BTW do you know there was a time OBJ was giving conditions for awarding oil-blocs to oil coys, u had to build either a railway, a power station or a refinery, dont know what became of that plan. . .and i cant ask, cos i'm not s'posed to know ). . .fact is policy-wise in the power sector OBJ didnt do too badly. . .its the e-diots that we had as minister that always messed things up!

except of the making each home responsible for its own generation bit, decentralisation'll make sense on the long run in the NEPS, cos it enhances the power mix. . .

do you see you and beaf's positions can be harmonised and if applied we'll have a mean power sector. . .there's no reason to argue. . .

i say we cause hell on nairaland until they give us a development section where we can reason things out.

ndu_chucks:

I meant sell for pennies my brother, but with very specific and stringent conditions. There must be a requirement to rebuild the infrastructure by investing a lot of money that would have been used to purchase distribution assets - this will produce very quick results.  The said N8billion/month revenue could become N80billion/month in no time at all resulting to cool tax revenues for the government.

All in all, your point is well taken.

o ok. . .the conditions make sense. . .

where have you guys been hiding? so it took a fight btw beaf and biina to bring out the ppl that understand what the NEPS needs. . .

This is what I mean by decentralisation;

In a decentralised energy (DE) system, electricity would be generated close to or at the point of use. Buildings, instead of being passive consumers of energy, would become power stations, constituent parts of local energy networks. They would have solar photovoltaic panels, solar water heaters, micro wind turbines, heat pumps for extracting energy from the earth. They might also be linked to commercial or domestic operated combined heat and power systems. The massive expansion in renewable capacity that this would represent, and the fact that when fossil fuels were burnt the heat would be captured and used, would lead to dramatic reductions in overall carbon emissions – at least half of all emissions from the power sector, or 15% of total UK emissions.

http://www.worldchanging.com/archives/003182.html

It is a wholly different concept from our current distribution structure, which I suggest should be used for industrial supply, while the generator / candle masses should move toward self / communal generation.
In the above scenario, PHCN can become the power overseer, setting out policies and standards for generation, distribution and transmission.

@larrymilla

Why you deh threaten us wit EFCC na?

netotse:

o ok. . .the conditions make sense. . .

where have you guys been hiding? so it took a fight btw beaf and biina to bring out the ppl that understand what the NEPS needs. . .

I for one, have not been hiding. This is the first time that I've seen this topic in this section, I've been otherwise posting on threads about MEND and the bashing of Northerners e.t.c.

By the way I agree with you that biina and beaf's positions can be harmonised.  I also think if Goodluck Jonathan takes the US government up on the offer to help build our generation capacity to 10,000MW by 2011, we will see significant improvements.  Let's hope the transmission system will be upgraded in tandem with the construction of this new generation plants to ensure that the transmission system can handle the new load (as you pointed out earlier).

Beaf:

This is what I mean by decentralised;
http://www.worldchanging.com/archives/003182.html

It is a wholly different concept from our current distribution structure, which I suggest should be used for industrial supply, while the generator / candle masses should move toward self / communal generation.
In the above scenario, PHCN can become the power overseer, setting out policies and standards for generation, distribution and transmission.

o ok. . .thing with that is that solar, and all the others when compared on a $/watt basis are absolutely no match for fossil and hydro power, i have a report somewhere on my computer(i'll search for it) that shows that solar is not actually cheaper than utility supply(in the us).

but govt planned(twas during OBJs tenurem dont know about yar adua's ppl) to use decentralised generation for places where the cost would be less than builing a network and connecting to the grid.

another major problem in nigeria is that ppl are so used to govt subsidies that if they were asked to pay the proper price for electricity they wont agree. . .6.40 per Kwh is not in anyway a true reflection of what it costs to produce electricity(yep. . .esp in this our inefficient grid system) somewhere arnd 20 per Kwh should be good, but do you think nigerians will agree to pay?

ndu_chucks:

I for one, have not been hiding. This is the first time that I've seen this topic in this section, I've been otherwise posting on threads about MEND and the bashing of Northerners e.t.c.

By the way I agree with you that biina and beaf's positions can be harmonised.  I also think if Goodluck Jonathan takes the US government up on the offer to help build our generation capacity to 10,000MW by 2011, we will see significant improvements.  Let's hope the transmission system will be upgraded in tandem with the construction of this new generation plants to ensure that the transmission system can handle the new load (as you pointed out earlier).

thats what i meant now. . .i thought there wont be anyone on NL that'd understand what the electricity section is all about.

by the way, i know i've said this before o but, guess what? we've never had an engineer as minister of power, so those great policies that have been put forward? we've had french graduates, lawyers, architects and now an economist tryiing to decide the best way to supply electricity to the nigerian masses.

netotse:

beaf has a point, in a way. . .our energy mix is messed up, 70percent fossil and 30percent hydro (and sometimes the hydro are supplying more to the grid than the fossil), you yourself said we need more generation and given the niger-delta militants, fossil stations just might not be the best(even though all the taeg stuff was you guys just wanting to outdo each other)

your analysis up there is on point! the part i dont agree with is the 51% for transmission though, i think its too small. . .but other than that, what you wrote up there is primarily what government plans to do(i've read the strategic plans for the power sector, dont ask me where ) except that they're encouraging all the IOCs to set up power stations(BTW do you know there was a time OBJ was giving conditions for awarding oil-blocs to oil coys, u had to build either a railway, a power station or a refinery, dont know what became of that plan. . .and i cant ask, cos i'm not s'posed to know ). . .fact is policy-wise in the power sector OBJ didnt do too badly. . .its the e-diots that we had as minister that always messed things up!

except of the making each home responsible for its own generation bit, decentralisation'll make sense on the long run in the NEPS, cos it enhances the power mix. . .

do you see you and beaf's positions can be harmonised and if applied we'll have a mean power sector. . .there's no reason to argue. . .

My position differs totally from Beaf, which was essentially (you can check his post on the first page) eliminate government and everyone generates for himself, except for industries who should be catered for by the government that 'has no business running these things'   I still maintain that the suggestion is nonsense, as it is costly, inefficient and impracticable in Nigeria.

One should familiarize themselves with where the countries preaching decentralization are coming from. Most of them are developed countries, who cannot meet their escalating demand for fossil fuels with local supply, have huge transmission networks with heavy losses, and are comfortable enough to be concerned with the environment. These countries already have a high level of penetration and availability of electricity. They are not in the same position as Nigeria, where we have abundant Natural Gas that we waste away by flaring and less than 50% of the country has access to electricity.

I maintain that over 70% of our electricity should come from fossil fuels. Other sources, particular seasonal or weather dependent sources like hydro, solar and wind, are free to complement, at the least providing backup allowing us to schedule preventive maintenance for the fossil fuel plants. I have never had any issues with using alternative sources for generation, either directly to the grid, in rural places that are yet to be connected to the grid, or even as local backup for industries. I disagree with the notion that these sources should become our primary source of electricity.

The ND problem is something that goes beyond just power generation and needs serious attention. While they may have their faults, particularly in how they are displaying their grievances, the area need focused development. I remember a few years back when there was an uproar over a N4billion contract awarded to Pivot Engineering to connect Bayelsa to the national grid, and there were reports of nothing to show for it after several years. Location of power stations in the ND should deliver power to the ND. Their priority should be second only to Abuja (government) and Lagos (industries).

The 51% interest in transmission is just to give the FG a veto position. Their record of  inefficiency dissuades me from wanting them to have more control. Of course we can always start with a 25% dissolution and increase it until we get the right level of performance required. As long as we don't hand it over to the private sector, it should be fine.

netotse:

o ok. . .thing with that is that solar, and all the others when compared on a $/watt basis are absolutely no match for fossil and hydro power, i have a report somewhere on my computer(i'll search for it) that shows that solar is not actually cheaper than utility supply(in the us).

but govt planned(twas during OBJs tenurem dont know about yar adua's ppl) to use decentralised generation for places where the cost would be less than builing a network and connecting to the grid.

another major problem in nigeria is that ppl are so used to govt subsidies that if they were asked to pay the proper price for electricity they wont agree. . .6.40 per Kwh is not in anyway a true reflection of what it costs to produce electricity(yep. . .esp in this our inefficient grid system) somewhere arnd 20 per Kwh should be good, but do you think nigerians will agree to pay?

True, conventional solar energy power is more expensive than gas or coal, that is why I mention thermoacoustics. It is both cheaper and more efficient than solar cell. They are so simple to construct that our local artisans would find it well within their grasp; that not only creating the tech for some of our power generation, its also creating rewarding jobs.
Industrial power supply would continue to be by conventional means (except firms can be given incentives to build biogas / biodiesel plants and renewable energy plants).

Nigerians are used to low electricity costs, but we aren't even getting any and we pay over the odds for candles, petrol and diesel for self help. Providing a regular supply will guarantee greater economic production, so there are quite a few things to balance in that regard.

We could genuinely improve our power situation by leaps and bounds, way beyond 6000 MW if we plan and mix right. Coupled with my vision for power generation, I believe we can lower domestic energy use drasticall; eg  there was a device that a lecturer, a Northerner, I think from Ahmadu Bello uni (or Minna, can't remember off cuff) invented some years back; it was about using traditional methods for refrigeration (read airconditioning) without electricity. He won the Rolex award.

One detail of interest in the government's proposed frame work is the direct contract agreement between generation and distribution entities, bypassing the Transco. I am not sure of how they intend to reconcile this with cross regional load balancing which the TransCo would be in the best position to carry out. It might also result in poor power station siting, essntially marrying IPPs and DisCo's for live.

I am more in favor of Transco being the intermediate entity, disengaging DisCos from being at the mercy of the IPPs and making it easier to leverage across the network. Meter on and meter off should be make accountability easier. The TransCo should be smart enough to drop off power as close to the source as possible.

Funny thing is, I'm listening to news on TV right now and the Tory party in the UK is proposing almost exactly the same as I've mentioned here so far. They are talking microgeneration, about folk generating their own power. Thats the future, we shouldn't be behind the curve this time.

Beaf:

Funny thing is, I'm listening to news on TV right now and the Tory party in the UK is proposing almost exactly the same as I've mentioned here so far. They are talking microgeneration, about folk generating their own power. Thats the future, we shouldn't be behind the curve this time.

they dont have a power shortage, so they have the time. . .they're trying to reduce emissions and all that at the same time. . .we're not in the same league, its not yet time to start taking panadol for that headache. . .i'm sure if they had our gas and fuel reserves they wont be singing that song. . .

netotse:

they dont have a power shortage, so they have the time. . .they're trying to reduce emissions and all that at the same time. . .we're not in the same league, its not yet time to start taking panadol for that headache. . .i'm sure if they had our gas and fuel reserves they wont be singing that song. . .

That is true for the short term in urban and industrial areas. However, I'm thinking not just of our immediate 6,000 MW needs, but of our mid to long term energy policies as well as rapid electrification / industrilisation of rural area's.

I'm preaching that we broaden our resource horizon where power is concerned. So that we harness those things that are peculiar to our environment (whether its heat, bright sunshine, humidity etc). For instance, if you ever attempted playing barefoot soccer on tarmac while growing up, you'll know it is impossible; it gets really hot and can even buckle the road surface. . . Thats energy wasting along each and every one of our roads. It is very low quality heat, but it can be harvested and will pay for both the transport surface and energy harvesting equipment. I have drawn plans for such a scheme, although it still needs some work. Crazy idea (and more on the extreme end, I know), but it will work for us (although it won't be feasible in say, Europe).
We can generate electricity in a thousand and one ways in addition to conventional gas and coal means if we look around our environment and harness what we have.

I really appreciate the level of discourse on this topic. even the mudslinging has been entertaining.
My question is what is wrong with each state managing its own power supply from generation to transmission to distribution? I am convinced our current political system makes it nearly impossible for an average president to implement any serious program. this is because there is no national interest in politics at the federal level, only selfish and regional interest.
The state govts however are more motivated to perform and leave a legacy. states with similar interest can cooperate on power supply without clueless federal bureaucrats meddling. for me, this is a far more important consideration than economics of scale of a national approach, after-all a lot of countries that manage their power supply very well are smaller than some states in Nigeria

1. A national grid essentially decouples the physical location of power generation from the point of consumption e.g. power produced in Kanji can be consumed in Lagos. With each state/region isolated, it becomes chop alone, die alone, as you cannot move power to the needed areas even if there are excess elsewhere in the country. Example, there is power shortage in lagos during the day which is affecting the industries, while there is excess production in Niger because it is the raining season and they have all gone to the farm. The result is that you need to make excess provisions as backup which results in increased cost to the end consumers.

2. A silent point about grids is that they help with frequency stability. Power generation usually involves several generators with each contributing a fraction to the grid. All generators have to be operating at the same frequency for stability. The larger the fraction the generator is contributing, the easier it is to try to do 'his own thing' (i.e. operate at a different frequency. On a small grid it is easier for one generator to contribute a substantial fraction and go off-key, while on a a larger grid the contribution of each generator is much smaller and everyone submits to the rule of the majority.

3, Power generation (for a country of Nigeria size) benefits greatly from economies of scale. I gave a simple example earlier of 15KVA from NEPA as opposed to from a local generator and there was a factor of over 100x increase in cost. So you want to generate in bulk as large as possible.

4. When you provision, your capacity is towards accommodating your peak value, while for the most part, your typical utilization will be much lower e.g. peak consumption for residences occur in the morning 6-8am and evening like 7-9pm. Because you cannot simply switch on/off turbines at short notice, the excess installed capacity above you average is wasted. The consumer ends up paying for this waste, but the larger the demographic covered, the closer your typical is to the peak demand, as it averages out over more customers. Most states in Nigeria have defining demographics, e.g. Lagos is heavily industrialized while Gombe is mainly agrarian. We need to average across the different type to bring our PAR closer to 1.

biina:


When you provision, your capacity is towards accommodating your peak value, while for the most part, your typical utilization will be much lower e.g. peak consumption for residences occur in the morning 6-8am and evening like 7-9pm. Because you cannot simply switch on/off turbines at short notice, the excess installed capacity above you average is wasted. The consumer ends up paying for this waste, but the larger the demographic covered, the closer your typical is to the peak demand, as it averages out over more customers. Most states in Nigeria have defining demographics, e.g. Lagos is heavily industrialized while Gombe is mainly agrarian. We need to average across the different type to bring our PAR closer to 1.

spot on! your making me nostalgic, i remember when i was first introduced to a load profile(twas love at first site ). . . sorry couldnt quote your whole post, didnt want to get banned again.

in nigeria(when things are normal, which is rarely) the hydro stations are used to supply the peak load since they have short startup time, and also due to the fact that water is a far more desirable fuel than steam as you dont have to pay for it, but with the gas wahala in nigeria, its not rare for the hydro stations to supply the base load, thats why when the end of the dry season comes, water levels are usually low and nigerians see hell (even on the PHCN side, nobody likes those periods). our energy mix is messed up!

doing a bit of reading, will get back to the other points. . .